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Around SBN: Devils Beat Rangers, Head To Stanley Cup Finals

The Process: J.P Howell vs. Josh Hamilton

ST. PETERSBURG - OCTOBER 03:  Manager Joe Maddon #70 of the Tampa Bay Rays removes pitcher J.P. Howell #74 during Game Three of the American League Division Series against the Texas Rangers at Tropicana Field on October 3, 2011 in St. Petersburg, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Even though the majority of you out there don't need a reminder, here's the scenario. Top of the seventh, two outs, and the Rangers had recently hit a two run home run off David Price to go up 2-1. Price was looking about done, and he let up a two out single to Craig Gentry. The top of the Rangers' batting order was coming up, and Maddon decided to go to the bullpen.

I think everyone can agree that now would be an ideal time to bring in one of the best relievers in your bullpen. You're only down by one run and you need to keep the Rangers from increasing that lead, and if your reliever gets one out they can continue into the 8th inning. This is a late inning, high leverage moment, and you should go with one of your best arms available.

Going into the postseason, if you had to ask me which relievers I trusted the most on the Rays, I'd have listed Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, and Brandon Gomes. McGee and Gomes are in a lower tier from Peralta and Farnsworth, as they only started to piece things together at the end of the season, but they both have excellent stuff and showed flashes of dominance down the stretch in September. Maddon had been trusting both of them in high leverage spots throughout the last month, and I didn't expect that to change.

In retrospect, the decision came down to Gomes or Peralta, since you would want a righty on the mound to attack Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus. Peralta is the better overall pitcher, but he's had more success against lefties than against righties this season (1.93 FIP vs. L; 4.79 FIP vs. R). Last season he was also better against lefties (2.43 FIP) than righties (3.33 FIP). Meanwhile, Gomes has been a righty killer all season long (3.15 FIP vs. R; 4.71 FIP vs. L).

These sort of splits are all subject to small sample size problems, so I'd be careful how much stock you put in them. But even if you regress the numbers for both of them, I think you'd still see a slight difference in their splits: Gomes is better versus righties, and Peralta is better against lefties. Peralta is still the better overall pitcher, though.

Gomes had thrown 28 pitches over the last two games to the Rangers, as Maddon was using him as a big weapon against the Rangers' righty heavy lineup. Peralta, meanwhile, had only throw 9 pitches in one appearance. So who do you go with in this instance? Hindsight is 20/20 -- not to mention, these splits make the decision a lot tough than I initially thought -- but I still believe you should go with your best reliever in this situation: Peralta.

Gomes is a defensible choice, though; you can certainly argue both sides here. I would have liked to use the more rested Peralta, but it's not the end of the world either way.

Now that I'm 500 words in, let's get to the situation hinted at in the title: the Josh Hamilton at bat.

Star-divide

Maddon called in Gomes to face Kinsler and Andrus, but he allowed walks to both of them, loading the bases. At this point, Maddon obviously needed to make another call to the bullpen as Gomes struggles against lefties. So who should he have called in? Here were the Rays' main options:

FIPvs. L

BAA vs. L

Peralta

1.93

0.152

Howell

2.79

0.222

McGee

3.14

0.164

The Leverage of this situation was incredibly high -- 2.8, one of the most important moments of the game. Simply put, if you didn't bring in your best reliever earlier in the inning, now you reallyreallyreally need to do it. Especially when that reliever has the best splits on your team (well, this season at least) against left-handed batters.

The call to bring in Howell makes somewhat, kinda-sorta sense considering he does have good splits against left-handed hitters this season. Howell only made the postseason roster as a LOOGY -- or at least, so I'm assuming -- and Maddon chose to use him like one in this instance. But that still doesn't make Howell the correct call. You simply don't want one of the weakest arms in your bullpen pitching in one of the most crucial situations of the game, especially when there's a better overall pitcher that looks equally capable against left-handed hitters.

Normally I'm fully behind Maddon's bullpen decisions, but this is one of those instances where I'm still baffled. Even if I give him the benefit of the doubt on calling in Gomes earlier in the inning, the decision to not bring in Peralta with the bases loaded is appalling.

Love ya Maddon, but I hope you learn from this moment.

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This and the fact that S-Rod was not running with two strikes on Shop.

Who’s to say if S-Rod would have scored in the ninth, but it still goes against everything that Joe has done all year. Merlot Joe turning into Meltdown Joe?

by playjoyce on Oct 4, 2011 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Try to stay on topic, please this is about the pitching situation. Go make a fanshot if you wish to talk about that play.

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Knowing that Joe should have gone with Peralta is not hindsight, as everyone and their one-armed albino brother-in-law was screaming it before anything bad even happened

I can maybe see Gomes if he is brought in to start the seventh. David was showing signs of wearing down before that. But once the wheels started falling off, you go with Peralta. And if he folds…well, you gave it your best shot. Instead, we wonder ‘what if’…

by nomoredevil on Oct 4, 2011 9:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Nah, I still tend to think Gomes was a defensible move.

Not necessarily what we would have done, but he has been really effective against righties all season long and he’s been one of our best bullpen arms recently. He hasn’t walked two batters in an appearance since the middle of August, and has only allowed five total hits since the beginning of September.

Bad result, but that wasn’t the real tragedy of the inning.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Although about the whole take Price out early thing...

Yeah, you can certainly make that argument. Price didn’t look terribly great for most of last night. I don’t think anyone would have complained if Maddon took him out to start the 7th.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

No more Gomes, what about Wade Davis?

What about Upton getting thrown own trying to steal 2nd in the 8th? Give me a break, steal second, and let them walk Longoria (happened anway).

Also, on the wild pitch that inning BJ wouldve scored the tying run.

by BUCSwillDOMINATE on Oct 4, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Davis wouldn't be a bad option, you just don't know what to expect really.

And yeah, the Upton caught stealing sucked. Not sure if the decision was necessarily poor, but the Rangers made a good call.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think BJ looking to run was bad choice

I really doubt they walk Longo if he’s suceessful. Like I said in the recap thread, it’s Ron Washington we’re talking about. Plus, it puts the go-ahead run on base.

I do think think the count BJ ran on made it a mistake, however. Once it got into a hitters count, he’s gotta stay put there.

by nomoredevil on Oct 4, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Upton's comment about that was

“it was a good pitchout count. I guess I have to think more.”

Uggh

I’m not sure I understand Howell even being on the roster with the season he’s had, even to be a LOOGY. He has not even approached his previous self since the injury, and 4 months or so would seem plenty of time to re-establish himself.

by tampa_edski on Oct 4, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess the logical response to that is: okay, who makes the roster instead of Howell?

Dane de la Rosa? We don’t necessarily have a ton of bullpen depth on our 40-man.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, he's not exactly amazing or anything.

I don’t see him as a big upgrade over Howell, especially since he’s done worse against lefties.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

We have tons of options. If you don't want to use "traditional" relievers, then throw Niemann as the long man, and use Davis as a fireman

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree.

I had no problem with Gomes, hoped he could have gotten the inning over, but wanted Peralta vs. Hamilton.

I do this for free.
#FREESANDY

by SRQman on Oct 4, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's the difference between good process bad result and bad process bad result

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gomes was not our best option. He was a decent to good option, but he wasn't our best option.

Howell in some ways is similar. He wasn’t a horrible option, but we had many other better options in that case.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'll agree that the Gomes choice is defensible

I didn’t like it mostly b/c he’s a rookie, and he’d pitched in both games already. While Peralta was very fresh.

by nomoredevil on Oct 4, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Entirely too much of a sample size issue to be taking these numbers seriously. The error in them is huge

Gomes and Howell are both defensable as Steve S has said. However, they were still poor moves. They weren’t horrible, worst possible move, with no analysis behind it. The problem is, we easily had 2 to 3 better options for both Gomes and Howell. Anyone that would take Howell over McGee at this point must not be watching the games but rather simplying hitting refresh on super small sample size FIPs against varying competition. Sure we don’t know if Davis would “fold” under relieving, but has this website harped over and over how all that mental crap is total BS? So you are saying Wade Davis is suddenly the Andy Sonnanstine of the bullpen? Give me a break. Obviously Peralta should have been a no brainer.

The Gomes move was better than Howell, but even still he should have thrown a better arm out there (was there an Ogando sighting there?). However, he should have yanked Gomes after the first walk, it was clear he didn’t have it.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

And it has nothing to do with the mental and everything to do with warming up.

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's why I would have done a Peralta-Davis-Farnsy

I’d prefer Wade coming in to start the inning than with men on base, but I’d rather take that chance of a good starter coming in for an inning vs a marginal reliever coming in. I’d rather go with the best arms we have.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you're vastly under-selling Gomer

Though you make a great point that if you think he was shit and couldn’t locate anything then you really can’t hesitate to pull him.

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he is plenty fine. He wasn't my #1 choice there, but he was high enough up on the list that I don't think it was a bad move

Keeping him in was the bad move. He just didn’t have it. 4 straight balls to the first batter should be an auto-yank for any reliever.

I’d have no problem using Gomes today if needed. He is just a bit further down the pecking order. I’d rather see Peralta, Farnsworth, Davis, all used in higher leverage spots.

Howell needs to be Sonnanstined.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I saw that the first couple times you posted it.

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Isn't that what this entire thread is? Every posting the same thing a million times hoping we can hop into a time machine to right the wrong?

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know, but I need to crank some work out so I can get up to a bar at 2, as always, you were a formidable opponent

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

JP Howell was placed on this post season roster simply because he's a LHP

Hell, might as well have dug up Casey Fossum or Jeff Ridgeway if that were the only criteria

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Oct 4, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

No comments about Maddon saying that Howell was there (on the roster) specifically to pitch to Hamilton?

Looking for the quote, but can’t find it yet…

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 4, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

...
Maddon defended his decision to bring Howell in to face Hamilton, saying “that’s one of the big reasons that J.P. was here, to pitch to that fellow.”

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_10_03_texmlb_tbamlb_1&mode=wrap#gid=2011_10_03_texmlb_tbamlb_1&mode=recap&c_id=tb

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 4, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Willingham is Type A, not sure on Quentin

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Quentin not a FA, trade target I think

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

And bummer on Willingham

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Quentin would be a rental for a year and then net us compensation, if that still exists

Chicago looking for a youth movement

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

J.P. Howell is still quite young

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Peralta-Davis-Farnsy

We’d be up 2-1.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions  

It is too bad Joe has fallen into the trap of managing bullpens like it is 1999

Must have 8th inning man, must have 9th inning man…blah blah blah

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why wouldn't he be?

What type of penalty are you assigning hm for going into the bullpen? Isn’t it usually the OTHER way around? Isn’t that what the evidence shows?

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Because he's never pitched in relief

Because he wasn’t that good as a starter

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Questions I'm carrying over from the recap thread:

1) Batted ball splits: Peralta is a FB pitcher, and Hamilton a FB hitter. Theoretically that means Peralta should be better at inducing Hamilton to fly out. Howell has a slight propensity for grounders.

2) Pitches: Do Howell or Peralta have repertoires that are more likely to get Hamilton out?

3) Splits: Hamilton crushes righties (.377 wOBA), so maybe we’re being too simplistic only looking at Peralta’s splits.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Then use McGee

There is a reason why everyone moaned about Howell when he was on the roster. It is because he stinks now.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Then we should have kept Choate?

This isn’t about Howell’s handedness, his pitch speed, or what he throws. The issue is that he literally stinks now. I don’t care if everything on the spreadsheed says to go to Howell, the spreadsheet is lagging because it hasn’t taking into account that Howell has lost whatever he used to have. Use the #2 option according to the spreadsheet.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I still wanted Peralta

but put that data Rancel put up and the best curveball available at that moment still belongs to Howell. That said, his location of it still finds way too much of the plate these days and in 3 of his last 4 appearances, he hasn’t recorded an out. He’s also given up a hit in 5 straight outings according to JB Long.

I get not using McGee now, but I’m better with Peralta since he’s given up just 5 XBH all year to LHB

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 4, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, pretty much. It came down to Peralta or Howell.

Pluses and minuses either way, but I think in the end, I’d like the better reliever out there that’s had more consistent success recently. Howell was and is a crapshoot….could’ve worked great, also could’ve failed hard.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, this gets to the whole pitch argument that Glass is making.

That Howell’s repertoire is more suited to getting Hamilton out. I could see it, but I’m still not sure I necessarily like it. Peralta’s still likely the main other option in this case, since McGee is all speed and heat.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm left handed, and i throw soft.

Put me in the game coach!

At some point, you have to take into consideration that the player just isn’t what they used to be.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm really glad that the failfense gets a pass because everyone wants to put this matchup under the microscope

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm glad Price was able to pick off Gentry, but a lot of that falls on him as well. Guy can't hold a Pomeranian on a leash

Jaso looks like he needs to go to the glue factory. I don’t get why you don’t start Lobaton. It’s not like Jaso’s bat makes up for his awful glove. So if you want to rest Shopp and not have him face a tough righty then play Lobes and just punt the offense. At least you get a glove out there.

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 4, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jaso is horrible.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed here. When people were complaining about Price giving up the lead I was quick to point out we still only had 1 hit up to that point.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Oct 4, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Roster construction

Let’s be honest — this post-season fell into the team’s lap with the Boston collapse that the Rays helped accelerate. Ramos was no better than Howell this season vs LHP, but it would have been nice to have Alex Torres on the post-season but he was called up too late to be added.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 4, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Niems is hurt

ow ow

I do this for free.
#FREESANDY

by SRQman on Oct 4, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, pretty much.

There was simply no perfect weapon in the bullpen for Hamilton.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Oct 4, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just use the best reliever available.

Howell isn’t that reliever.

End of story.

@dobbertweets
#FreeSandy

by blackraven on Oct 4, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

And I know Maddon is one of those people that likes to let players think they're useful and believes that Howell will go back to being good

But it’s kind of clear he’s not going to turn it around. And you don’t test that theory when you’re in a high leverage situation tied in a short playoff series with a team that is offensively better than yours.

@dobbertweets
#FreeSandy

by blackraven on Oct 4, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

It really sucks we didn't have anyone better than Johnson/Lob-out-on to hit for Shop/Rod vs. RHP

Looking over the 40-man roster, there’s a lot of garbage

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2011 10:43 AM EDT reply actions  

i see what you did there

F-bombs outside the GDT are a bannable offense
consider this a warning
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Oct 4, 2011 8:54 AM EDT

by Rayskins on Oct 4, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

vs a LHP, we have 0 bench players who can hit

Brignac, Jaso, Fuld, EJohnson, Lobaton.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

if only Guyer had been called up before 9/1

The team never expected to be here, otherwise they would have been more proactive before 9/1.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Oct 4, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agreed with every move Maddon made last night with the exception of Howell

I would have gone with either Mcgee or Peralta. I guess he liked Howell as a veteran in that spot but that would seem to go against his own principles of using the best match-up. I thought BJ running was fine and I applaud Ron Washington for pitching out, I’d say maybe at the most 2 other managers would have thrown a pitch out with a ball already to Longoria in that spot.

by Dbullsfan on Oct 4, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

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