MLBTR Has Projected Arb Figures
They have every eligible player's predicted salaries through arbitration for 2012. MLBTR is pretty good at these so the numbers should be pretty solid to go by.
For the Rays they have:
David Price - $7.8M
B.J. Upton - $7.6M
Jeff Niemann - $3.1M
Joel Peralta - $2.0M
J.P. Howell - $1.4M (non-tender candidate)
Andy Sonnanstine - $1.1M (non-tender candidate)
More and more I see us trading away a few pieces this winter. Check out the article and download the excel sheet. Fun to look at potential arb figures and rosterbate.
7 months ago
jcmitchell
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$2MM seems high for a non-closer reliever with our budget.
I’d like to see him back just for stability in the pen, but if we’re going to have a very strict budget it might be better used elsewhere.
I'm torn on that one myself.
I was projecting a deal would get done for $1.8M or so but if we keep Shields, Price, Niemann, and Upton we may have to cut the salary somewhere.
updated roster with these figures:
locked in:
Shields- 7
Zobrist- 4.5
Longo- 4.5
Fansworth- 3.3
Shoppach- .3
Davis- 1.5
arb.:
David Price – $7.8M
B.J. Upton – $7.6M
Jeff Niemann – $3.1M
Joel Peralta – $2.0M
15 at .425= 6.375
So thats 47.975 mill.
Yeah, it's starting to get a bit expensive for Rays front office liking.
This makes me believe there will be trades. I see Niemmann gone and one of Shields/Upton gone. I hate it!
I'm not sure Neimann even deserves 3.1 mil
1st time he’s eligible and he has always had injury issues, in the minors and now in the majors, guy can’t stay healthy.
Dan Johnson is also arby eligible but he’s a definite non tender. I think Brian Anderson was right when he said he might be a Ray for life, I expect a minor league deal. Sonny has both feet out the door, he gone. And JP, I am not sure, elbow surgery is not easy to ever come back from but the FO loves JP, we’ll see.
A little OT: Andrew Blackman is now a FA, worth a ST invite at least, I think.
Under construction
I'd bring Brackman in on a ST invite.
I can see Howell coming back on one as well. Doubt we give him anything guaranteed.
seems crazy that the yanks would cut him with how thin they are on starters.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd best player in their system going into the year, but i guess they'd know better than anyone else what's wrong with him.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Niemann definitely is worth the $3.1MM, however not within our budget which is why I feel he's the most likely to get traded.
He has value just not on this team.
I don't think DanJo is an obvious NT at all.
I actually think both he and JP will be back next year.
His first two season's IP totals were just fine.
Since 2009, he’s 63rd in IP. The generally great health of the other Rays’ starters might be spoiling fans a bit. What’s a decent 2012 IP projection? 160? Probably a 1.5-2 WAR pitcher? Not exciting money, but likely worth it to the Rays and definitely worth it to other teams in a trade.
I agree.
Something along the lines of 7.5, 11, 15, 20MM over the next 4 years is going to be rough when it could have been 2.3, 7.5, 11, 15MM. So the 1 extra month of Price is going to cost the team about $17.5MM.
Imo super 2 is a huge problem and needs to be fixed. There needs to be a set service time for it or it should just go away. I know it wouldn’t have mattered with Price but would effect how it’s best to deal with Moore going forward.
Does the super 2 really escalate the salaries that bad?
I always think of arb roughly as 40%, 60% and 80% of market value and assumed the S2 would make arb 1, 20%. This way he is basically paid MV by arb 4. If it is really that bad, we need to keep Moore in Durham until July 1st to be safe.
Just look at Tim Lincecum.
He signed a contract to avoid the first 2 as a super 2. He’s eligible for arb3 with 1 more to come. He’s gotten 10,13MM, and is projected to get $19.2MM this time around, so one could only assume in arb4 he’d probably be looking at $24-25MM at least. This is what really scares me with Price going forward, my numbers could be way off if he has a couple more Cy Young contention seasons.
Maybe Price should be looking to trade Price
I think he’s probably better than Shields going forward, but would fetch a lot more. Shields is at least cost controlled going forward.
Unless they find a bucket of gold at the end of the rainbow...
I’m fearing that may be an option that has to receive serious consideration. This is a big failure by the front office to allow this to happen when they can’t afford mistakes this large.
They tried to win
You know, the thing everyone whined about when they held Jennings down.
Now we get more whining from those same people when dealing with this.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
I know it's a slippery slope, but with the Rays financials is going for it worth an extra $17.5-20MM down the road for 1 month of a player.
It won’t be a popular decision but I felt they dealt with Jennings properly given the cost involved of bringing him up in May vs July.
I think that's a big thing
People weigh arb1 vs minimum instead of arb4 vs minimum
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
100% agree.
Either get rid of super 2 or have a fixed time like 2.125 or something like that.
The should just set a date and leave it at that.
Then us Rays fans know when we can have a prospect up.
Only problem is we run into longterm contracts potentially being the same across the board and hurting smaller market teams like ours. I could be wrong, though.
Fix a Super 2's arb1 to a pay raise like 1.5M from 400k
That seems the fairest way to do it.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
I think that may be part of the problem with Price.
Because he’s working on a Major League deal from when he was drafted, so he’s working off a base of almost $2.1MM last year. I’m not entirely sure how that affects his arb numbers though since it doesn’t happen often.
The only #1 I see recently getting to an arbitration case is Tim Lincecum as a super 2.
The submitted numbers were $8MM and $13MM, but they agreed to a 2-year 8MM, 13MM deal with 2MM signing bonus. So Price will get less than that but not by a large margin. I expect it to get settled for somewhere between 7-8MM.
But between the 2 CYs, better numbers & better year entering Arb1
I just see a much bigger gap-but maybe I’m missing something.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
Well they predict Kershaw to get around $8.5MM entering his arb1.
So Price is about 10% lower than that.
This seems like a correct number.
I did think Price at 7.8 was a bit high but MLBTR knows what they are doing. I could see the Rays and Price settling on a multi year deal or a one year deal between 7 and 8 like you said.
It's probably too late but worth a shot.
Something like 7.5, 10,12.5, 15 with an 18MM option or something would be what it would probably take imo. I am no expert but this seems like an adequate trade, but now that we’re at arbitration he has most of the leverage so wouldn’t expect that much of a discount since he’s going to get paid over the next couple of years.
So end result 4 years $45MM with an $18MM team option.
That sounds fair but something the Rays probably can't do.
It scares me a bit but I love that the Rays went for it one year knowing this could happen. Flags fly forever, players come and go.
They may, that'd have his option @ only age 30
perfectly reasonable hopefully
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
It's too late to expect much of a discount is what I was refering to.
Since he’s about to get paid. And yes Lincecum isn’t a perfect comp but with 2 years of inflation and Price viewed as a solid #1 he will get less but not substantially less. He received $9MM and $14MM with the extention avoiding the arb hearing.
I don't see why it's too late.
His agent knew the situation. We knew the situation. Price is already a millionaire, and if anything his arb. figure this year and lack of building on 2010 might make him pause and think that he may get no better. I think an extension before next season is at least as likely as it was before last season. Remember, Price has already made around $8 million plus any additional earnings. He was set for life the moment he signed that draft deal.
Ya, but I'm not really expecting it.
People in general will always want more if somebody is willing to give it. The only shred of hope I have it seems he really enjoys himself and is allowed to be himself. Just from observations from the dugout.
So are the Rays gonna move Davis into the bullpen
They hinted at something like that in the playoffs for next year too.
As a closer it would be good, but if he falls anything short of that not so much.
Especially considering his contract would be fine at current production levels as a #4/5. If he only becomes a setup man his value will not be enough in a few years (assuming our budget). I feel trading him would get better value than throwing him to the pen.
I don't see why he couldn't be at least a good closer, and you could always stretch him back out.
He definitely has the stuff, and I’m assuming he can handle it mentally.
I'm fairly confident he could do it.
But with the nature of the bullpen who knows what happens. It becomes a much bigger risk. But really as long as they Sonnastine him in the pen he’ll be fine most likely. Just feel you could get better value out of a return from teams needing a solid capable starter, especially if he moves out of the AL East he could be a very good #3 for somebody.
Shields and Upton =14 million
That brings the number to $33mil. Plenty of room to keep everyone else and bring in some new pieces.
$9MM for Zobrist + Longo
$3.3MM Farnsworth
$1.5MM Davis
$8MM for filling out the roster with league minimums.
Payroll will be around $48-50MM if no changes are made and without free agents with these adjusted projected arb totals.
Depends on who comes back in return.
Wouldn’t a catcher and SS who hit over .250 and a 1B who hits for avg and power be worth it?
So you trade Upton and Shields to get..
A player at a position with high attrition thats offensive production around the league is pretty awful (and only playing a max of 2/3 of the season), a minor upgrade at SS where the better answer probably is in our system right now, and an unproven 1B.
Upton’s production replaced by a Fuld/Guyer platoon and Shields being replaced by a Niemann/Cobb type pitcher.
Even with the salary reduction I don’t believe that makes the team better in 2012 when there is a clear opening to win it while Boston/New York scramble to fill out their rotation.
I think trading Shields is a bigger dropoff than Beej.
I’d be fine trading one or both if they both bring back great returns. If we could do both for Messy, Frazier, Alonso, and a lower level high upside player I’d do it, I think.
In the right deals I feel it could make sense, but really has to be for impact ready offensive upgrades.
of which there just aren’t that many teams where a trade would make sense from both sides. Not saying there could be someone willing to overpay and give us the value required to make it a good move.
Trading Beej, in my eyes, necessitates bringing back an immediate impact starter less than Shields in my eyes.
Beej plays a position that we are fairly strong in. I feel fairly confident that the dropoff from Beej to Guyer/Fuld is in the neighborhood of 2 wins (4 wins for Beej and 2 for the platoon) which we should be able to pickup w/ the savings in FA. This of course means that whatever the return is it had better be good. Remember, Beej is only Type B right now, so we’ll only receive the one pick if he departs via FA.
Sounds about right.
But the dropoff of Shields to a Niemann/Cobb starter is abou the same. A drop from a 4.0 once you consider regression to a 2 win pitcher, so you have to come up with 2 wins regardless. The B.J. market is hard to figure, because of a more limited market and while the Nationals would like him I’m not sure it makes sense for them when they could just sign him in FA when they’re more likely to contend.
Add on with our offense needing some help, I think B.J. will offer more being in the lineup to the Rays. If a reasonable solution can be found with the money saved I’m all for it, but I have a hard time finding it. Somebody will undoubtedly drop to our price level by middle of January though so who knows, I didn’t see the Damon/Manny signings so I’m sure I’ll be surprised by something.
Upton should bring back either a starting catcher for 2012 and a prospect
…or an almost ready top ML catcher or 1st baseman prospect for 2013 and a need for next season…SS or closer type.
If $7 mill brings in Furcal/Thome...
Your looking at the following trade-off:
SS: Furcal vs. Reid/SRod
LF: Guyer/Fuld vs. Upton (assuming Deezy move to CF=Deezy in LF)
DH: Canzler vs. Thome/Canzler
Then you also have whoever Beej brings back in return. A lot of it in my eyes depends on what the salary ceiling is. Can we add upgrades at C/DH/1B/SS in the ST w/o trading Beej? Can we address those with a trade of a Niemann and/or Davis? There are just so many moving parts for me to say “Yes, trade Beej and/or Shields” or “No, don’t move them.”
The budget will always be the determining factor.
I think Furcal and Thome get more than $7MM, not substantially more though however. With this front office there will moves made and somebody will overpay for something we have that they need. C I honestly think the best option is to punt offense from the catcher position as we did this season. SS I think a stopgap will be too expensive for the production difference, especially if they feel Beckham might be ready by mid-season (I’m not hugely confident that he’ll be ready to be an immediate impact, but from what the production will be I think the FO will see a better allocation of resources). 1B I think we’ll try to trade a lesser part with a prospect throw-in if need be to pick up a AAA 1B via trade. DH I think has to be addressed via FA even if it’s just bringing back Damon at a reduced cost if he likes staying.
I don’t think there’s room for both Canzler and Thome on the bench, but there might be. I’m sorry if this is a little jumbled up and hard to follow.
My ideal 13 position players to start the season:
catcher 1
catcher 2
1B
Zobrist
Furcal
Longoria
Guyer
Jennings
Joyce
Thome
S-rod
Canzler
Brignac
Why can't we trade Beej and Niems and still have that $7M or more to spend?
I like any scenario that gives us financial flexibility and lets us keep Shields.
That'd be like $10 mill.
C: R. Hernandez
1B: Duda/Lomo/Blanks/etc.
2b: Zorilla
3B: Longo
SS: Furcal
LF: Guyer
CF: Jennings
RF: Joyce
DH: Thome/Giambi/H-Mats
C: Lobaton/Chirinos/Jaso
OF: Fuld
U: S-Rod
U: Briggy
SP: Price, Shields, Helly, Davis, Moore
RP: Farns, McGee, Peralta, Gomes, DDLR, Ramos (or other LOOGY, Howell?), FA (Rauch, Zumaya, Neshak, etc.)
That looks like a pretty good squad, and it should come in at less than $60.
Based on the above post, these 4 were included in the ~48million mark
Again, payroll minus Shields and Upton = $33mil
This list just makes me think
that Friedman is a magician
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
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