Free Agent Targets: Minor League Deals
Rather than looking at free agents that might not fit into the Rays plans (like Type-A free agents that I mistake for Type-B free agents). I said it would be a mistake to sign Josh Willingham even if his Type-A were gone. I liked the idea of Kelly Johnson but the Type-A status is a major hurdle to overcome. it is time to switch focus to some signable guys.
I have run down some potential first base options and have taken a look at our catcher conundrum. I have even taken some looks during the season at the shortstop position. One of my favorite options to back up at short and all over the infield is Jamey Carroll and he is apparently on the verge of a multi-year deal with an undisclosed team. Keeping my fingers crossed that the team is the Rays.
But, as we all know, the Rays are not going to sign a major name nor are they going to mortgage the future and trade top minor league talent to acquire a major bat. If they do trade it will most likely be from their plethora of major league ready pitching and hopefully land the Rays a young first baseman with pop.
But, as recent memory has suggested, the Rays have been great at filling gaps by finding used goods like Casey Kotchman, Carlos Pena, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour... the list goes on, and I imagine the list will continue to go on this offseason.
With holes to fill in the bullpen, at first, catcher, and depth needed all over, the Rays will attempt to sign a few guys on minor league deals in hopes of striking gold. Here are a few players that I think the Rays would and should target.
First Base: I have always been a fan of Russell Branyan and I see no harm in offering him a minor league deal with a spring training invite. The man possesses one of the best HR/AB ratios in history and a good glove at first base. On-base machine and rarely healthy Nick Johnson would be another target of mine if he can stand up and potentially DH. Other candidates: Juan Miranda, Brad Eldred, Brad Nelson.
Catcher: This is a very thin crop but you can never have enough depth at catcher. One option I like is Mitch Canham. He has little power and some question on defense but has great walk rates and just turned 27 so there may be some upside here. Can't hurt to add him for depth.
Infield: Another thin crop but there are a few guys that once intrigued me that could add some depth. Matt Antonelli is athletic and can play a few positions and Chin-Lung Hu can still play short. Brandon Wood has been thrown from team-to-team lately so why not the Rays? Steve Tolleson is another guy that has shown some ability to get on base but his defense is limited to third and he has little pop.
Outfield: If Nate McLouth can be had on a minor league deal then it needs to be done. He has on-base skills and can play solid defense in left and still has some pull power in that bat. In all honesty, the Rays have decent depth here and there are plenty of guys who they can get on a cheap major league deal that will pay solid dividens. I'm looking at you Andruw Jones.
Bullpen: Blaine Boyer has been my Russell Branyan of relief pitchers. The career 56% groundball rate and 4.00 FIP look good to me and the mid-90s sinker and mid-80s slider combo look good to me. Manny Corpas, if healthy, provides some good upside with career ERA, FIP, and xFIP all under 4.00. Mitch Stetter is a good LOOGY candidate with 63 strikeouts and only 33 hits allowed to 202 lefties in his career. He strikes out nearly one-third of all lefties he faces and only allows a hit to less than one-fifth.
I'm not seeing much gold here but there is depth to add on minor league deals. Anyone else out there that you would like to see added on a minor league deal?
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Jamey Carroll
Had a renaissance last year! Had him as my back up play-every-position man in fantasy.
MLBTR: The 37-year-old infielder played shortstop and second base for the Dodgers in 2011, posting a .290/.359/.347 line in 510 plate appearances. He hasn’t posted an on-base percentage below .355 in any of the past four seasons and he has a career mark of .356 after a decade in the Major Leagues. Carroll, who also has experience at third base and in the outfield, stole ten bases without getting caught this past season. He is not a ranked free agent and won’t cost his new team a draft pick.
I love Carroll.
Gets on-base. Can play short in a pinch and plays second and third very well. He won’t cost a draft pick. He is a great base runner and can steal a handful of bases. Only knock is his lack of power and age.
sounds like he might become a Twin now.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 11, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
If Derek Shelton can fix Kotchman, he can fix anyone
Sign Wood up for some eyepuss surgery!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
stop misspelling it.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to agree here
pus: what you squeeze out of an eye duct
puss: what you spend all your money chasing
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Nov 11, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
careful, that's a family man you're talking about there.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
have to ask
why continue to belittle Kotchman after the season he had? Isn’t it possible that the combination of the eye surgery + commitment to playing him everyday really are the reasons behind his season + higher than usual BABIP all played in his 2011 success? Some may want to weight the BABIP the highest, but I’ll chose the first 2 variables in the equation as more of the driving force.
Isn’t it safe to say now that Kotchman’s 2010 season is the outlier of his career?
If you were looking to sign him as a free agent wouldn’t you expect a .750-.800 OPS rather than have him revert back to 2010 Mariners numbers?
I use the .750-.800 benchmark not to over inflate Kotch’s ability, rather the thought that if he is an everyday player (which is why a team would sign him) he has been more productive than when he is a part-time player (outside of 2010).
2007 with the Angels OPS = .840
2008 with the Angles OPS = .774
2009 with the Braves OPS = .764
2010 with Seattle OPS = .616
2011 with Rays OPS = .800
Not belittling
and not wanting to start this entire talk again.
sub .800 OPS’s are not ideal for 1B but my major point was he revived his career from the dead. Was in a scouts vs saber debate in Phoenix over the weekend with him and everyone had their theories (BABIP, surgery) but agreed on 2 things. One – he’s still very good at the corner but Two – he’s not doing what he did at the plate again. Scouts said they saw the same guy they had seen in the past. I shocked them when I pointed out he had more infield hits than Victorino or Rollins last season.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
My overall point was that Wood's career is pretty much at the same point Kotchman's was at this point last year
Maybe the Rays can catch lightning in a bottle 2x
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
what has Brandon WOod
ever done at the major league level…ever?
Lifetime 751 PAs OPS – .513.
It’s like saying Andy Marte should be signed because he is in the same boat as Casey Kotchman.
Those who continue to suggest that Kotchman is all BABIP and iis closer to the 2010 version as a player are not being honest.
When did Brandon Wood ever get a chance to play fulltime - something you give credit to for Kotchman's success?
Kotchman isn’t 2010, but he’s not 2011 either
BaseballHQ has the data on hard hit ball stats. Here are his (Hard/Medium/Soft) by year:
2007: 30/50/19
2008: 25/59/16
2009: 26/56/18
2010: 26/60/14
2011: 22/53/25
lowest hard hit ball data was this past season and he actually made more medium+soft contact this season with repaired eyes than he did last season with f’d up eyes.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Wood got a chance in 08, then another in 2010
Even if you regress his numbers heavily they still are awfullllll
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
He's 26 years old
I’m talking about throwing a minor league contract at him with an invite to camp for a guy that can play both SS and 3B at Durham
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Oh I'm not saying he has no chance of success at the majors at all, he could well turn out to be a big league regular
But it’s flat out not true to say he hasn’t been given the chance. He has, and he’s performed far, far worse than is acceptable for a major leaguer
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
No you're right I'm not positive how I'd define a "chance" to succeed
But I think 751 plate appearances with absolutely nothing to show for them (6+ K/BB with little power?) is quite a bit
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
I agee to that.
I believe he needs to turn things aroun d to become a good player, not get more of a chance.
You've reached a new level of miscomprehension
lack of playing time was the only thing I equated the two on
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
This is funny. Their recent wOBAs follow each other pretty closelt.

Kotchman is 50 wOBA points better, but first basemen are 30 points better than shortstops, so that makes up some ground. These graphs are fun.
Oh my
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
You are missing the whole point, which is sitting right in front of you.
To put it plainly, your Kotchman, er, “bias” is affecting your view of the situation.
and here we go again....
I point out comments from national number crunchers and scouts that all paint him as a doubtful repeater, and I come through as bias.
New month, same old shat
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
lol
I see Cason Jollette has emerged.
I was agreeing with you, Jason. Look at who my reply was to. ;)
my bad -- looked like it was to me :)
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
persecution complex, much like another JC
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Nailed me...err, it
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
and all of you avoid the data about hard/medium/soft hit balls as well as the fact
He actually made harder contact in 2010 than he did last year with bad eyes.
That’s an argument that we haven’t been able to introduce into the #KotchTalk until now and now we have it. Does that change your outlook any? Would it if the name of the player were different?
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
I guess this point still stands to the other posters though.
I don’t see how some are so inconsistent. Sign these guys to Milb deals, but these other similar players can’t!!!!!!
I'd sign Kazmir to a minor league deal
I’d sign just about anyone to a minor league deal for depth in Durham in case things go crazy. It’s also a way to keep depth away from the competition.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
one guy
that I’d like to see learning to play 1b in Durham would be Kevin Kouzmanoff.
Guy does have a good amount of power, no OBP skill, but could be serviceable in a number of “if” situations
Hard/medium/soft just seems sketchy to me
Like how is that even calculated?
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
appears to be data from hit f/x from sportsvision
I cannot find a calculation of it anywhere
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
when he plays everyday
isn’t 2010 the major outlier? Wouldn’t the odds be statistically against a fall from 2011 back rather than staying around .750 OPS in 2012?
Statistically speaking of course.
Are his everyday numbers in 2011 that great that they can’t be repeated?
I will agree that infield hits will not be repeated that would be like winning the lottery twice….well, I think Hollywood Henderson did that so on second thought…..
Kotchman was trending downwards till 2011.
Why are we even comparing him to a younger Kotchman that he clearly isn’t anymore?
All I'm saying is the MagicofKotch group would have been going nuts if you were in that conference room with me this weekend
All of the paid national experts & scouts said a lot of the same things that have been raised here by the “haters” as far as him at the plate this season.
The defense was praised by everyone – and deservedly so
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
2011 Kotchman reminds me a bit of 2009 Bartlett
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
It's too easy
to suggest Kotchman won’t repeat isn’t a real debate. To suggest that his “normal” is 2010 Seattle is.
I want to upgrade first base and only care that the Rays get a good glove to fill the role. This notion of power and minimal defense at first base is so stupid. Get me a guy who is going to anchor my infield first and worry about how much offense he gives you later.
It was so nice when Pena brought the glove and the bat. But don’t bring in some young kid to play there who isn’t a natural first baseman, don’t bring in a DH that we can throw out there for extra power, and don’t put a guy who has minimal experience there just to add to the offense.
Who is claiming that 2010 SEA Kotchman is what to expect?
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
that's the clarity
I’m looking for.
Suggesting that scouts and number crunchers don’t expect a repeat performance is one of the most obvious things ever.
It’s like expecting Davey Johnson to hit 40+ homers after he hit 43 with the Braves…ain’t gonna happen.
Rather than get all up in arms (not you or me…any fan) about Kotch expected drop off in 2010 — how about telling us what the expected drop off is?
I'd just expect his career average
Unless there is a change in skill set
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
when you say "won't repeat'
what are the scouts suggesting That he is a 2010 version of himself? Is he a sub .700 OPS guy? Is he is sub .600 OPS guy.
Nobody could possibly expect a 2011 redux at the bat.
But how much of a drop is expected? Maybe you can clear that up for us (even the non-magic of Kotch guys would be interested).
Probably what he's been his career
Like a .280/.330/.400 guy
At least that’s what I’d expect going forward
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
discounted for environment.
id expect him to be right about LA (which last season was about .720 IIRC).
His 2010 batted ball results are absolutely his normal...just not the results of them
2010: 2.04 G/F, 55% GB rate, 27% FB rate, 18% LD rate
2011: 2.16 G/F, 56% GB rate, 26% FB rate, 18% LD rate
Scouts are saying it’s the same guy, same swing, that got better results that were inflated with some BABIP fortune. When I pointed out the infield hits, they said it made that easier to understand. As one put it, “emptiest .300 average I’ve seen in awhile”
Said he could be an everyday 1B for some team, but that team better expect something closer to .280 with a 750 OPS
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Whatever went wrong in 2010 went right in 2011
Sadly tough to convince ppl of this
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
throws well, scoops well, catches everything at him...it's there
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Throws well, scoops decently, catches most things at him, limited range.
I hate most scouting evaluations of first base defensive value, but I’m not quite smart enough to make a great argument as to why it’s all bogus, or to explain why so many smart people are wrong when they talk about it.
Let me try, though. The scooping skill isn’t all that different amongst competent first basemen, but people ignore when they see a competent first basemen miss a scoop, and overblow how good some are.
Other than that, why is it any different from third base, where rangy players are highly valued? The fact that you don’t need a strong arm should only make range that much more valuable, not less so. Also, the fact that you don’t have to throw across the field gives you more time to collect bobbles, which should downplay the need for sure-handedness.
Counter argument: Because first basemen hold players on, they only have the opportunity to range to one side, at times, cutting the affect of increased range in two.
Whelk
One thing that is fun to do is to watch two teams every night. One team that has a good defense (especially a first baseman) and the other a bad defense (particularly first base).
I did this for the last 4 years or so while watching the Indians with Ryan Garko, Carlos Santana, Matt LaPorta, and Russell Branyan handle first base duties. Contrasted against Carlos Pena and Casey Kotchman.
Once you watch about 500 games you’ll be an expert on what a good defensive first baseman is.
It’s probably why I am so much in favor of having a solid glove over there as an anchor to the infield. I’ve seen my share of extended innings, extra bases, missed cutoffs, and poor positioning to last a lifetime! Not to mention failure to get lead runner, inability to turn a 3-6-3 double play, and ranging too far to the right and having the 2b have to make the long throw to pitcher covering often not nearly in time to get runner.
Yeah, at your urging, I will be watching side by side games for next year.
In a year’s time I’ll hopefully have both seen what you’re talking about and have figured out how to properly explain/quantify why the people who play third base and who play first base are so different (other than strong arms).
Only sort of.
Sam Fuld is a really good outfielder. Because of this, he can also play center field. On the other hand, Kotchman is a really good first baseman. But does anyone say that he could play third base? Or second base, if you think the arm is the problem? No.
People judge first base defense very differently than defense in every other position (except catcher). I guess all I’m saying is that it’s an interesting difference.
Right, I get that. Not disputing the comparison.
I just think it illustrates what’s different about first baseman. And it seems incongruous to me. Take Tango’s fan scouting report: http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index4.php?teamid=139&team=Tampa%20Bay%20Rays
Do we really think that Kotch’s reactions and instincts are better, than Brignac’s, Rodriguez’s, and Elliiot Johnson’s, three players who combined to be possibly the best shortstop position in the league?
Come to think of it, this calls for a closer look at the fan scouting report. I’ll see if it can shed some light on what we think we see at each position.
Poor range.
Very good at scooping, at least this past year. I suspect that is why he makes few errors.
Good defender, but nothing spectacular.
hey maniac
if that is directed at me you have to understand…I am not a Kotch lover or wish he was brought back to Tampa Bay in any way.
My discussion with Jason is all about understanding part of Jason’s argument while pointing out a few things I observe.
no malice, no anger, no bias, no agenda….but every time one of these Kotch talks or any other player I actually learn quite a bit from the community.
Like Earl Weaver said “It’s what you learn after you know it all that counts”
Stetter & Branyan have been on my list for a bit
I’d take both on a Kotchman-type deal and see how it works out. Although, it was telling that the Brewers went with no lefty rather than let Stetter pitch last year for most of the season and he’s done nothing over the past two seasons for them. He is recovering from hip surgery that he had in August so he shouldn’t take anything more than a low-risk minor league deal.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 10:21 AM EST reply actions
While I like most of your suggestions, ...
… I’m not on the Jamey Carroll-to-the-Rays wagon. Sure, he’d be a solid utility man who’d provide more value than Reid Brignac in ‘11 at short. But … his defense in ’11 was below average (according to UZR) across the board. He is right handed and (a bit) better against lefties and thus not providing anything over Sean Rodriguez against lefties and not enough for 350 PA’s against righties.
I think Nick Punto is a much better fit. His offense was ahead of Carroll’s in ‘11. His defense (at short, 2nd and 3rd) seems to be better than Carroll’s. He is slightly better against righties and thus complements Rodriguez much better and he is 3 years younger.
He’d be my first signing of the season for something like 2yrs, 5-7mio.
Sure ...
… he is and will never be spectacular but he fits the ’12 Rays I think and over the last 4 years he has been as good as Carroll.
There are good players, there are bad players, then there is 50 feet of crap
Then there is Nick Punto
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
does anyone think this makes sense?
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
figures, sycophant.
not talking about the point, but the phrasing.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
direct movie quote...
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for clarifying!
haven’t seen it.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You're judging Punot's future projections off of 160 PAs from last year?
The only year he didn’t finishe at least 4% below league average on offense? I’d take Carroll and his track record. Four straight years of OBP of .355+. Punto has never done that in more than 160 PAs.
Not only on that ...
… Taking the last 4 years:
Punto: 7.6 WAR, Carroll: 7.9 WAR (so, pretty similar players)
And, then Punto has the advantages that he is better against righties, younger and highest likely cheaper. I prefer him even when considering the last 4 seasons … and that’s a much bigger sample.
splits
which guy do you get?
the guy that hit .224 in 09 & 10 vs RHP or the guy that hit .280 with BABIP spikes in 08 and last year?
He doesn’t run any longer and he’s an empty average when he does get the spike. His dWAR is barely above league average at this point.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Each of the two players has his strengths and weaknesses. I also see why most think Carroll is better than Punto. I’d just rather have Punto at the Rays in ’12 than Carroll as Punto seems to fit a bit better what the Rays already have in the MIF (meanings Zobrist and Rodriguez).
We won’t get on the same page on this one, but that’s how it should be. Different opinions open up the horizont and give new ideas.
I don't want either
I’d rather have a Clint Barmes. if you’re going to give me a no bat guy, I’ll take the best glove for the position and Barmes’ value is loooooow.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Barmes value
I liked Barmes as well, but I thought his value was going to be too high for just his glove. How much do you think he would fetch via FA.
Don't think the Rays want to pay about 5 million (and they may have to go multiple years at that) for a SS
If the Rays are happy with Brignac’s defense and Rodriquez potential RH bat, I don’t see them spending that much for a replacement. I’m on board with Punto because he’ll play very good defense at three IF spots(better option for the utility player on the team) , could maybe surprise again on offense, seems like a flexibility/Maddon type of player…and will only cost 1-1.5 million dollars.
he had 20 XBH in 510 PA's last year
and 36 in his last 924 PA — there’s no bat there.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Seems like Carroll to MIN
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
the new Nick Punto!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
If I'm the Twins, I give away 10k per HR hit @ Target Field
They won’t be out much money
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
I believe in second chances so I like these guys ...
Max Ramirez C – put up good OBPs in the minors and in very limited time in the majors. Is he hopeless on defense? Did his wrist problem ruin his throwing? Scot Hatteberg?
Ryan Shealy 1b – knee problems, but he’s hit in the past.
Garrett Olson P – former 1st rounder, lefty, pitches decently in relief but doesn’t have the pitches to start.
Jason Bergmann P – was pretty good pre-injury.
Mark Prior P – talk about high upside! But the injury history is tragic.
Logan Kensing P – first year back after injury he was striking people out in AAA but was a bit wild. Only 28.
Adam Miller P – was a big-time prospect, got hurt, didn’t pitch well this year but with more time maybe he’d bounce back. Huge upside.
Adam Loewen OF – hit well at AAA this season.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."
I like the idea Prior and Miller. If healthy could be good bullpen arms. Big if.
Ramirez cannot catch and I don’t think he is very good at first either. I considered him but left him off for those reasons.
review
Ramirez is hopeless
Shealy was here in the past and was cut
Miller is only pitcher worth looking at
Loewen is a lefty-K factory of a hitter. Need another RH bat
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
We had Kensing in extended spring one year too iirc
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 11, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Prior has huge upside.... a decade ago.
I think it’s well past time to give up on him.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Nov 11, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
This
Not even worth the 400k and minor league roster spot
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
And what makes you think that?
Don’t you think the Rays medical teammight want a closer look at him?
He hasn't pitched well enough to be a major leaguer since 2005, and now he's older than 30
It seems fair to give up on him, considering how many other teams have tried
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Off Season Pick Ups
What about Jonathan Broxton he is what the Rays love a good pitcher coming off an injury year. He would be a great add to our BP. I would also love to see the Rays go after Jeff Mathis of the Angels He doesn’t have the hits but neither did Shoppach. Mathis is a defensive machine the Angel pitchers only want Mathis behind the plate.
I love Broxton but the way relievers are getting paid I bet he gets a good chunk on a major league deal.
I would rather get Shoppach back. Better hitter and very underrated defender. He was very solid behind the dish last year.
MLBTR says
that the Blue Jays and 4-6 other teams asked for Broxton’s medical records recently. Hopefully the Rays were one of them, though if the based on recent events, the Jays will probly snatch him up.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 11, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
2 guys that weren't mentioned
I would give Jeff Clement a ST invite and keep Adam Russell, as he is a FA also.
Under construction
Bleacher Report'd...
As of right now, their current closer is Kyle Farnsworth.
As any Yankee fan can tell you, that’s not a good thing.
Sure he was exceptionally good last season posting a 2.18 ERA with a WHIP of 0.99. However, he’s known as a hard thrower with little control. It’s hard to imagine him repeating those numbers especially since he’s only had back-to-back seasons with an ERA south of 3.00 just once.
Heath Bell is a real, legitimate closer. He would give the Tampa Bay Rays a reliable option at the end of the bullpen, something they haven’t had in years.
If I were Joe Maddon, I’d feel a lot better knowing Heath Bell was going to close out the game instead of Kyle Farnsworth.
No mention in the article anywhere about Type A status…..
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 12:34 PM EST reply actions
in years?
Lol soriano… Benoit…Granty B…bit different but David price in 08… Back end of out bullpen hasn’t been a problem in awhile
by mooreCOWBELL on Nov 12, 2011 12:20 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Branyan
I like banyan too but is he the rays plan a or plan b. If he didn’t sign or workout who in the organization do the rays put at first. I have said slide zonrisy there but we would need to add a decent middle infielder.
by gatrmf on Nov 11, 2011 1:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think you waste Zobrist at 1B if he's there more than 4-5 times a month.
I’d rather see Branyan play there against RHP. His glove is good and the power and patience are there.
I understand it wouldn't be a minor league deal but if healthy i'm all over Kendry Morales this off season
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Why wouldn't they be?
They know what he can do and the Rays won’t give up what they would ask for. Other trade possibilites out there that will work better.
they're talking about moving Trumbo to 3rd to make room for Morales
Could be posturing but a few of us here were beating that Morales drum in late August
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
hasn't Heath Bell
told San Diego that if they offer arbitration he is going to accept? Wouldn’t this preclude him from free agency?
Will he be on the open market?
It would but doesn't mean it will happen.
I just want the Red Sox to through money at a potential bust.
Phillies are the new Yankees
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Need Philly to sign Beltran and then screw Boston out of that 1st rd pick
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Beltran can't be offered Arb
#Casonfail
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
oh yea...#Boras'd
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by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think there's any players with a higher ranking for Philly to sign
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
so
Pujols
Fielder
Wilson
Ortiz
Bell
One of those 5 would have to be signed and we can rule out all of them because the Phillies aren’t buying a 1B or another SP
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Wilson as a #4 lol
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
They did release Oswalt, never know.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 11, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
btw, put me on the list for wanting Wilson Betemit as the new Willy Aybar
Can’t hit lefties but he has hit .298/.371/.501 vs RHP over the past 2 seasons (490 PA)
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 4:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
sans the spousal abuse!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
I would put Ryan Doumit near the top of my list..as a switch hitting DH.
Find another bat for some power somewhere but take a decent chance that his remaining healthy last year returned his numbers to 2008 levels. And that by being able to concentrate on just hitting also helps him. The fact that he could catch from time to time(and that’s all I would want) adds flexibility to Maddons mix and match style. He put up similar numbers to Damon last year(when averaged out for the season).
At about 4 million for one year, I would consider him.
This
Possible big reward if healthy at either 1st or DH.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 11, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
In the outfield
How about Matt Murton? We were interested in him previously, and he tore it up in Japan last year. He’ll certainly cost more than the guys mentioned in this article, but he also wouldn’t cost a pick.
At shortstop, also Munenori Kawasaki might be a candidate. I wouldn’t be shocked if he stays in Japan though. He’s a glove-first type who probably wouldn’t put up on OPS much above .700 in the majors, plus he’s had persistent injury problems to boot. But he’s another name to throw out there in a weak field of shortstops.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Why can't we sign someone to a major league deal?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
OT!
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
Also, generally
Should Type A matter that much this year? Maybe that’s where we can find an inefficiency. The lower-end Type A guys tend to get cheaper deals due to the fact they’re Type A. That said, since we had like 13 top draft picks in this past draft, it wouldn’t kill us to lose a pick or two this year.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Given that the draft itself is an inefficiency though
It’s probably not a good idea for us to give up part of it, especially since first round picks are worth ten times second rounders
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Nick Evans has a chance to declare minor league free agency
Maybe an AAAA player but at 25 and always having good success against lefties, he could be worth a look(for nothing) as a platoon type 1st baseman and back-up 3rd baseman. At the least, a good RH bat off the bench.
No risk...
….and with no one else in the entire organization with more than 17 games of ML experience at the position(Zobrist), he at least gives the team a viable 1st base option before the winter negotiations and trade alternatives begin.
kotchman
If he could be had @ 3yr/ 9 million would that make sense. The market for a 1b is so tight. I could see a best case scenario for him as a 275 avg 15hr 70 rbi guy or would Pena @ 2yr 10 mil make more sense
by gatrmf on Nov 11, 2011 5:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions
If you want that type of production at first base(for Kotchman), it would be better to trade something to the A's for Daric Barton
Rays could have him for the next 3 years for a total of about 3-4 million(in arbitration). Get better defense and a better OBP guy with similar power and production and 2 years younger.
It would not make sense.
No three year deals for players coming off career years, about which there are lots of questions. I would rather have Pena @ 2yr/10 mil.
I’m really not against Kotchman coming back next year, but not on a three year deal.
I'd rather get Loney
He’d hit for more power outside of LA, and in the ALE
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 12, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
Not in the Trop.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, Loney remains criminally overrated
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 12, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Did you see what he did over the final 2 months of the season in a pitcher's park?
.357/.416/.608 in 192 PA
I don’t want to pay his arb rate, but if Dodgers let him walk, I’d call his agent
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Did you see what he did in the past 3 years of his career?
In a much more reliable sample size?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
How about his fWAR over last 3 years being better than Dunn, Lind, and Huff?
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Awesome, he's better than players who suck.
Where the hell did you pull those names from?
Kotchman has more fWAR than those bozos over the past 3 years, also.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts
Kotchman had a 2.2 fWAR over that same 3 year period
Loney 5.1
Huff 3.7
Lind 3.4
Dunn 1.7
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
My fault on that
Somehow I added Kotch up to be 3.8.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
lol you're seriously citing Adam Dunn and Aubrey Huff as players who're good?
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
On "name value" -- which a large % of this fanbase goes by, they are
Everyone and their mother wanted Dunn here via trade just last year before he crapped the bed with the White Sox.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
So what?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
This isn't The Heater, Cason, we know who shitty players are. Not really an argument you want to use here.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm confused
I thought once we ended OTTOTD, this place was going to lose all of its traffic and become the Heater?
You mean, now it’s not?
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That doesn't make the comparison any less silly
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Below
Fuld’s glove is so good his bat is tolerable
But Dunn’s bat is so good that his glove isn’t?
You guys would have given your left nut for Dunn to be here in a trade last season but now showing how Loney’s overall value is better than his is foolish. Strange
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't around this blogsite last season, but I was deadset against Dunn
particularly if the price was Wade Davis.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
I would have agreed with that at that point
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure most people expected Dunn to not suck that much ass at DH
Which seems like a pretty fair expectation
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
How exactly are you extrapolating "I'd call his agent?"
A guy that does that over the final 2 months of the season deserves a phone call. I’d take Loney at $4M before I"d bring Kotchman back at that rate.
Cut downon his K rate, bumped up his SLG%, TAv, fields his position very well, and he’s just 27 years old. Silly to call him crap and ignore him right now
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
Final 2 months...
When a guy who has been in the same place forever puts up those kind of numbers to close out a season, it points to a change in process.
In Loney’s case, more plate disciple as he had his highest walk rates in those 2 months and made better contact. A HR/FB spike in August but his GB% declined each of the final 3 months as his swing changed to produce more loft.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
I think it points to SSS.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
So...
Bautista hitting 12 homers in September of 2009 was just small sample size fluke?
Curtis Granderson’s improvements over last August & September in terms of hitting lefties & drawing more walks was just more small sample size noise?
Again, it’s just a phone call. I’m not ready to give him a Burrell contract
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
As long as he never faces a lefty.
This.
Platoon him with Canzler and you could have an effective 1B option.
If money were equal, I'd rather have Loney, also
because he is sliiiiiiiiiiiightly better than Kotchman. But I wonder if he’d be better or worse playing half his games at the Trop. Not many players get better.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see the difference between Loney and Kotchman
Here is the fangraphs comparison between the two. They are very similar players. About the only thing Loney has on Kotchman is being a year younger. Personally, I don’t really want either. I would rather try and trade for a young, relatively unproven 1B that is either blocked or fallen out of favor with their current team. I.e. LoMo, Alonzo, Blanks, Gaby Sanchez. Hell, I could even be tempted to give Daric Barton a chance. I look at either Loney or Kotchman as basically the last option.
looking at pure average on that first graph
Looking at wOBA, Loney has been the better guy every season outside of this outlier of a season for Kotchman and one where Loney was hitting .256/.301/.325 over the first four months of the season.
XBH difference is the winner for me because doubles produce runs. 158 PA for Kotchman last season with runners in scoring position and he had 32 runs driven in as just 4 of his 33 hits in those situations were for extra bases while hitting .250. Loney had 11 XBH, drove in 50, and hit .264.
Over the last 2 seasons, Loney has hit .299 w/ RISP and has driven in 127 runs on 33 XBH in 370 PA. That BA is 10th best for 1B in the league and his wOBA was 19th best at .342. In that same time frame, Kotchman has driven in 75 runs on 15 XBH in 280 PA while hitting .265 with a .317 wOBA.
Defensively, Kotchman’s UZR/150 over past 3 seasons is 4.1 while Loney is 3.2. If we look at BPro’s Fielding Runs Above Average last season, Loney +3.1, Kotchman -2.4.
Sure, Kotchman hasn’t exactly been blessed with good offenses around him these last two seasons, but Loney is still the more potent run producer of the two and if you’re giving me $5M to sign one of them, I’m giving it to Loney.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Kotchman is not hitting 15 home runs with a G/F rate of 2.1
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 11, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
is FB rate as a % of PA isn't that far off.
Ks turn into GBs, not FB to GBs for Kotch
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
His FB rate is in a 5 year decline
33.3
29.5
29.5
27.1
25.9
I know once you own a skill you can do it again, but that’s going to involve a major change in approach for him and he already makes weak contact as it is.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
draft picks
I agree brickhaus. Sometimes there is to much stock put into draft picks. How many first Rounders are on a big league roster? 3 or 4 on avg
by gatrmf on Nov 11, 2011 5:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Just me scanning the lists, and including the compensatory round
2004 – 9
2005 – 17
2006 – 13
2007 – 10
I stopped at 2007, because I started seeing a bunch of people who would be up soon, but aren’t quite yet.
You can start to do 2008 since the college guys are ready
and the HS ones are almost ready
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Nov 11, 2011 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Not really
Some of them are only 21
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Draft picks are arguably the biggest market inefficiency left
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
A lot of them make the majors
But about half of those probably only make the majors BECAUSE they were first rounders and therefore get more chances than other guys.
If you can get a player who’s worth $8M a year for $5M a year because other teams don’t want to give up the pick, and the pick is worth about $1.5M or less, then it’s a no brainer to sign the Type A free agent if you have the capacity to do so.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
But about half of those probably only make the majors BECAUSE they were first rounders and therefore get more chances than other guys.
I don’t think that’s true
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Teams would pay far more than $1.5 million for a 1st round pick
The shot at a potential future star is highly valuable, even if it’s a gamble, because when you get it right the payoff is gigantic.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."
by ThreeRunHomer on Nov 12, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
barton
Daric Barton’s 2011 season is a very scary sight
by gatrmf on Nov 11, 2011 5:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
thanks whelk
that means that there is an average of 1.6 first round picks on each big league roster. Obviously there are more when you add the few picks from 08 and 09. So I think an argument can be made not to pass on every Type A free agent just because of the draft pick scenario. I believe that signing one Type A guy and making a trade for one bat puts us in a strong position for the next 3-4 years and not just playoffs but league champs and ws champs. We need to look at minor league deal players for depth and injuries. There isn’t gonna be a Pena or Kotch every year and especially would hate to be such penny pinchers when this team is so close
so what type As do you suggest we sign?
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
If the Rays moved some money(Shields or Upton or both), Beltran would be my choice.
Perfect hitter to bat(and protect) behind Longoria. If he could be convinced to sign for two years(maybe with an option) at no more than 10 million per, Rays would have their impact bat. If, they consider his knee well enough to withstand the turf and he could get days off to be the DH, he changes the dynamic of the line-up, especially if they can find some more offense at first base and at catcher this winter.
Obviously a long shot, and don’t know if he would even consider the Rays(AF would have to do a real sell job like Minaya did in NY) but he would look good batting clean-up.
Might as well offer
Shields, Upton and Torres for Hanley…because it wouldn’t happen either. Beltran’s knees should scare off the GM of any turf team.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 12, 2011 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
in a world without Pat Burrell
I’d say that move might be on the Rays’ radar. Now? They have to be wary of another NL OF who “can’t adjust” to DHing.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 12, 2011 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
TYPE A
JOSH WILLINGHAM OR KELLY JOHNSON. Now obviously that would be if no trades were to be made. i would pick up johnson and slide Zobrist to first or Joyce to first.
to tell the truth,
I like Willingham and somewhat like Johnson for the power they bring, but for their low averages, and high K rates, I dont see want to spend a 1st rounder spent for either. If both were B agents, I would sign one of them then, but not A.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 11, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Kelly Johnson is weird.
His K% jumped way up, and it was largely fueled by a jump in whiffs on balls inside the zone. But his isolated power also dropped, so it doesn’t seem like he’s changing his approach. Most everything else is the same. If he were an old player, I’d see he was just losing it, but he’s not. Frankly, I’m puzzled.
Try to use the reply function please
Willingham’s spike in strikeouts is somewhat alarming but his maintaining power in Oakland is quite the feat
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 11, 2011 9:50 PM EST up reply actions
Personally, I would like to see Zobrist become the fulltime RF'er.
Solid 2nd baseman, to provide offense(including Rodriquez, at least defensively) may be more available to find. And if Joyce has to shift to LF or DH(Rays defense would take a hit with him trying to become a 1st baseman on the job), they could still find a RH bat to platoon with him.
I have serious doubts of his ability to hit well enough to be productive against lefties on an everyday basis.
Please try Joyce at 1b!
Jennings, BJ, Guyer from left to right. Or if BJ is traded, replace him with DeJesus, shift Jennings to CF, and maybe switch the corners. But I think the Rays should highly consider Joyce to 1b. At least TRY it.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
Guyer/Fuld platoon would be fairly effective really
Versus righties Fuld has a roughly league average bat, if he’s a +15 defender and +3 baserunner then he’s a 3-3.5 win/150 games against righties player
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Is he a league average bat vs righties?
Getting on base, I guess, but I wouldn’t think power-wise. .110-.120 ISO seems a bit low. Just curious, but what ARE league average numbers so we can compare?
I’d also rather not have Fuld carry the large side of a platoon.
I have no idea of Guyer’s minor league splits, though. I’m particularly interested in the past two seasons.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
After a little searching, Guyer is definitely better against lefties, but he's perfectly fine against righties for the past 2 seasons.
His K rate was almost exactly the same last season against both, but he did walk at a better clip against lefties.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm the real question is if guyer's offense against righties>fuld's defense
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't Guyer supposedly good on defense as well?
Not many are on Fuld’s level, but I’ll trade a couple diving specular plays for the extra boost at the plate for sure.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
That was my initial thought, but
I then I thought I remembered hearing he’s not quite athletic enough for CF, but his bat doesn’t play well at the corners. So basically a CF bat in a corner OF position. But maybe I’m remembering that wrong.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Not intuitive, but after looking at their observed performances I think Guyer could be similar to Adam Jones
Jones seems more athletic, but his CF numbers are below average, probably between -5 to -10. Offense is .280/.330/.450. That looks like Guyer to me.
One area where they probably won’t be similar is that Jones weirdly has a reverse platoon split for his career: wOBA .292 vs L; .353 vs R.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 12, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
His career wRC+ is 95 against righties, last season it was 99
So he’s about league average
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 12, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
No.....Fuld would have the bigger half of that platoon and he should never see over 250 PA's in a season
He hit .218/.292/.327 after the end of April over 237 PAs……that’s nowhere close to league average
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Yes let's arbitrarily choose to ignore 32% of Fuld's plate appearances that are among his most productive
That’s an excellent way to do analysis!
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
As the AL learned how to pitch to him?
Yea, I’m going to write off that 1st time around the league and focus on what happened once the league quickly learned he couldn’t lay off the high fastball nor could he do anything with it.
Great defense, but absolutely don’t want him getting the bigger half of any platoon.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Right the AL learning how to pitch to him is why he put up a .246/.358/.391 slash in the second half
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
I forgot, players aren't allowed to adjust as well
May: .157 w/ a 434 OPS in 93 PA
June: .308 w/ a 810 OPS in 45 PA
July: .216 w/ a 606 OPS in 56 PA
August: .296 wit a 917 OPS in 37 PA
September 6 PA’s all month.
In the months where he playing time was very limited, he succeeded. It’s almost as if there’s something there….or something
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
If he adjusted as well then how is he not useful in a platoon? Are you having trouble admitting you're wrong and even the numbers agree?
Your reliance on SSS arguments is astounding, it’s like you’ll use them any time they support your arguments.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't need stats in any form to show me Fuld isn't an everyday player or even one that needs the majority of PA's in a platoon
That’s obvious just by watching him. You’ve completely glossed over Guyer’s success vs RHP in his development throughout the minor league career and are ready to put him on the wrong side of a platoon for a guy who non-biased parties say is a 4th outfielder.
In a R/L platoon, straight up, Fuld would see a majority of the PA’s and I strongly feel that does the team a disservice. Especially for a team that has its struggles offensively.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
"I don't need any stinking statistics to tell me what my EYES are saying"
“But I’ll try making up some to fit what my eyes say just in case”
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I'm throwing numbers
Most of you are throwing snark. Not terribly productive
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
You have a preconceived notion that Fuld is an awful baseball player
And are twisting numbers to suit that theory, not using numbers to make a theory. This is flawed analysis.
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Preconceived on factual knowledge
To date, +500 PA’s, he’s below average for his position. It’s simply what the numbers play out right now. Love the heart, love the hustle…….as a reserve outfielder on the short-side of a platoon. Don’t make the guy into what he is not.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Plus, Guyer has shown he can hit in the minors
against both hands. His ceiling is much higher than Fuld’s, imo.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
He's been worth 2.3 wins over 501 PA in his major league career so far
That’s not below average, that’s above average.
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
Not to mention that his .279 BABIP to date is probably below what we can expect going forward from someone with as much speed as Fuld
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
His BABIP is about the same at AAA also, in more PA.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
His WAR is due to his defense, mostly.
On bref, since it separates oWAR from dWAR, he’s got 0.9 oWAR and 1.1 dWAR.
We’re talking about Fuld as a batter here, right? Why would you want to take ABs away from Guyer to give them to a guy who doesn’t hit well?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Because players have to play both offense and defense
We wouldn’t just be taking away ABs from Guyer to give to Fuld, we’d also be taking away innings in the field away from Guyer to give to Fuld
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Guyer's defense is good, though.
Supposedly.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Right but it's no doubt going to be at least one or two steps down from Fuld
I’m not arguing that Guyer isn’t a better player than Fuld, just asking if he’s going to be better when he has the platoon disadvantage than when Fuld has the advantage.
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
I would think so.
His numbers against righties for the past 2 seasons in AA and AAA are good against righties. Not passable. Good.
The ONLY thing Fuld does better at the plate is walk.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Where are his splits located?
I haven’t been able to find them
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
minor league baseball site?
The official one? Durham Bulls site? I don’t remember where I found it, but it was easy on google. Give me a minute. Also, Guyer had 17 OF assists last season in 107 games at AAA. That’s pretty awesome.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah you're right
Those numbers against righties are really really good, although I’m still a tad skeptical because of how hitter friendly Durham is. But they’re good.
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
I think it more than makes up for the bit of difference on the defensive end.
Or I think it SHOULD.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446386
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
2 sites
http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/ for 2010 and prior
http://minorleaguecentral.com/index.php for 2011
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
or 2.0 rWAR for his MLB career
Last year’s 1.7 rWAR doesn’t even put him in the top 50 for outfielders. His LD% was 19% last season which isn’t that far off an average and that’s a lead BABIP driver.
Not to mention, he was between .260 and .295 in his last three seasons in the minor leagues for BABIP so I’m not too hopeful of a bump.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
Now we're using rWAR huh?
Obviously Fuld isn’t going to be in the top 50 WAR as far as outfielders go, he only got 346 plate appearances. Even if we average rWAR and fWAR he’s at 2.2 wins over ~500 plate appearances, and given that league average production is 2 wins over ~600 plate appearances, I think it’s fair to call his production thus far at the major league level “above average”
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Is that really above average?
According to bref, that’s right on the line between sub and starter.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think average is defined as 2.25 WAR over 150 games
If you plug in average for everything then that’s how many runs above replacement an average player would get
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/ “Average full-time player is 2 WAR”
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
So he's average, then?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'll concede I'm focusing more on the offensive side of the ledger when calling him below average
Having he, Brignac, and Jaso/Shoppach in the lineup together this season was painful to watch.
If Rodriguez goes to SS and hits and the club can find a better catcher to have more of the ABs, go ahead and give Fuld 300 PAs. The PT he got this year because the team had no other choice as it waited to call up Jennings was awful to watch. Once they got him back into a platoon situation to maximize matchups, it was better.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
I prefer a balance of fWAR, rWAR, and WARP myself
2.6 WARP
2.3 fWAR
2.0 rWAR
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
actually, 1.6 WARP
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Wins Above Replacement Player from BPro
not the same formula as fWAR or rWAR which is why I like to look at all 3 in doing player valuations
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 14, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
How wonderfully arbitrary!
2nd half split .246/.358/.391
You can add Junes .810 OPS in and still look good, but you effectively cut off his wildly successful month to start with his wildly terrible month.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Not to mention that lots of Fuld's chances were PHing (which is more difficult than normal hitting)
And that this doesn’t split left/right
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
a career 92 wRC+ 501 PA's into his career
I don’t know anyone outside of this fanbase that looks at him and thinks he’s more than a fourth OF. I know people were blaming him for the Rays having to fight it until the final day more so than anything else as his time in fulltime duty once the legend status wore off was unbelievably hurtful to the team’s offense.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 12, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
Career 95 wRC+ vs RHP
There were 10 AL LFs with 250 PA last year with a higher wRC+ than Fuld’s career line. The noly ones with above avg UZR were Gordon, Deezy, Hamilton, Reddick and Gardner. His glov in left in 2 wins better than the other guys with higher wRC+.
I don’t think he’s everyday, but he can 50/50 with Guyer. He just shouldn’t bat leadoff.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
But the R/L SP splits aren't 50/50
There are many more RHP than LHP so naturally, Fuld is going to see more of those PA’s in a straight platoon split. If you going to give Guyer more PA than say Kapler got in that role in the past, then you are cutting into what Fuld does best. How much better is either over the over the RHP? We don’t know yet. We do know that Guyer has the following slash lines vs RHP by year:
2011: .301/.372/.507
2010: .330/.381/.565
2009: .361/.434/.454
2008: .283/.350/.532
minorleaguecenter or driveline don’t have wRC+ available for splits but I’d rather use Fuld to spot all 3 outfielders than use him in a strict platoon with a guy that has shown a penchant for hitting righties very well at every step along the minor league level.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
50/50 isn't straight platoon
It’s easing Guyer in by letting him face half the rhp and all the lhp
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2011 8:18 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Why does he need to be eased in?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
To let him develop?
Why not have all prospects skip AAA? Let him get some confidence against some of the more split neutral righties and if he reacts well, give him more.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
But he doesn't have severe splits.
And he really only has ANY split differences because he’s amazing against lefties. Doesn’t mean he’s not good against righties because he’s put up great numbers against them, too. I really don’t understand the need for this caution, as if Sam Fuld is really a better option.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 14, 2011 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
MLB is not milb
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 15, 2011 8:40 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
He doesn't have MLB data
Why assume he can’t handle righties when he’s been this good?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 15, 2011 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
that should work out to be at least 65/35
Why ease him in? If Guyer has a demonstrated ability to hit RHP well, why take those ABs away from him? I look at this like Joyce last year – give him his chance to fail unless the matchup is just that good for Joyce.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
Zobrist was easily (at least) the second-best defensive 2B in baseball last year
Why make him a full-time average defender in right?
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 12, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
I think that "Miami" Marlins will non tender John Baker.
He would be my choice for MiLB contract.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Nov 12, 2011 1:42 AM EST reply actions
Grady Sizemore at $6mil on a one year deal makes so much sense for the Rays
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
You would risk $6M on a player who is more likely to be worthless than not?
This is the type of risk big-league teams can take, not the Rays. $6M is a huge gamble when it’s ~10-15% of your payroll
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 12, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Great KotchTalk everyone, glad to see we're setting the tone for the offseason.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
relevance
He is probably not returning. We should talk about why and how the team can upgrade at the position
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 11:01 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
True, I didn't really think it'd been covered enough either, let alone beaten into the ground until it's probably halfway to China.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
So now that we can compare it to a clearer list of possible FA/non-tender candidates, we can't revisit it?
I guess we should talk about the GOP debate on CBS, elevens are wild, or telling PBrady what day it is
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Can you re-visit something you never really left? And it's not really a look at FA possibilities if you're only bashing the dude a la all goddamn year.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a player on the market the team may or may not bring back.
He is going to be discussed and debated. The team currently has no first baseman so it should be discussed, frequently, until the job is filled. Defend him if you want, but spending time bitching about people posting about it does not push the discussion along. If you don’t like it, you have other options.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
It kind of feels like you know you made a mistake, but you just can't stop...
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?
I admitted being wrong about what Kotchman could do in 2011 a long time ago. That doesn’t mean I’m going to stop analyzing the situation and seeing how the team could improve the situation in 2012 and beyond. It was a nice story, but that story is likely over and it’s time to look at why the sequel won’t be better and how the Rays can address the situation and potentially make it better.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
But Loney is the same player as Kotchman with slightly better numbers
If you hated the first guy, why would you even want to consider the second? I’d probably rather take a chance on Lindsey.
The Kotch story was nice, and I was one of the very few saying he should get a shot coming out of ST, but now that it’s probably over, I’d really like a different type of player at the position.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
good lord, forget it.
I thought he was 24, not 34.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Who was 34?
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
John Lindsey?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
oh, I thought Lindsey was a joke on Loney's last name :)
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Is he?
I’ve put the numbers up above that I’m looking at.
2 seasons worth of run production
3 seasons worth of fWAR
I think we’d all like a different type of guy at 1st (hello, Joyce) but reality says 1B are expensive and the Rays aren’t going to spend money to buy a different type of player. Pena & Kotchman both minor league free agent deals that were different types of players that had one thing in common – low market interest
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
I love the drama
Sitting on the chair waiting for the next comment to be made……….
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 13, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
But when you use the last 2 seasons, you're using his outlier god awful 2010 like it's meaningful.
I would love to see Joyce get a shot at 1b. I think the Rays can manage to get one of the few good young 1b out there or a major league ready prospect who has power with their pitching depth. They don’t need to strike gold again via a minor league deal. They have a strength now that they should tap into to balance their team a little more. I think that’s something everyone can agree on. It doesn’t have to be a 8 figure deal.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
I like the idea if no trade is made.
But the reports are that Wade Davis is likely to be moved.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 13, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
What idea?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
The idea of Joyce at 1B if no trade is made
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 13, 2011 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, now your post makes more sense.
Thanks for clarifying.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
Haha yeah, I've had a problem with that
I’ll make sure I make more sense in my posts from now on, I realize it can come across somewhat different than what I want it to be.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 13, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
Loney could potentially be non-tendered
I’m not trading anyone for him because that would mean offering him arbitration and that could be a $7M salary in 2012 and that’s too much money for what he offers.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Davis could be moved to solve the C/SS problems too
We also need two “big bats” so to speak to fill the DH/1B void so even if we get one via trade, Joyce can fill the other (1B presumably, since Joyce isn’t awful in the field)
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Or Joyce could be the DH.
Either way, if Upton sticks around, I want to see Jennings, Upton, Guyer, and Joyce with full-time spots. I would HATE to see Guyer not given a chance to play.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
Joyce seems like he'd be above average at 1B just given his tools, no?
I mean he’d be way more rangey than the average first baseman I think
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
One would think.
But who knows? It might not work that way with him. He’s a good OF, but he’s like the 5th best defensive OF on the team. A nice problem to have.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
Yes - I think he has shown good footwork & first instincts in the outfield
He’d be far from a stiff at 1st but can he hit enough for 1st?
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
He's already passable to me.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
He'd hit better than our other options probably
He’s put up a 129 wRC+ each of the last two seasons so it’s probably safe to call that his true talent level which corresponds to a 24 bat over ~650 PA, which is good for 3 winsFIELD+BSR so if he’s a +5 defensive first baseman and average runner that’s 3.5 wins (assuming I didn’t screw up somewhere)
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
I think you forgot the 1B penalty.
Still probably better than any affordable option.
I used two to balance out Kotchman & Loney
Each have had their great year & bad year. Over 4 years, w/RISP
Loney: 111 wRC+ in 788 PA
Kotchman: 103 wRC+ in 567 PA
To my earlier point, he’s an upgrade and if I had the same amount of money for the two, I’d sign Loney.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going to disagree that Loney had a bad year
He just had a less than normal year.
I will agree (again) that if the money were equal, I’d rather have Loney because it he’s better (but so freaking slightly [but still better]). Hardly an upgrade though.
Kind of like upgrading from a 1994 Camry to a 1995. Meh.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
When we are always shopping in the used car lots...
We can’t get the best thing Gilliss offers us. We have to settle for the best of the trade-ins.
If the only IF signings were Loney & Betemit, I’d be a happy camper.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Wait.
Why do we want Betemit now? Not enough UTIL IF on the roster? Wouldn’t he cost a bit?
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
Only a million dollars last season
That’s a deal. I figured he’d be at least a couple million more than that.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Said Betemit the other day
The new Aybar — replace Elliot Johnson’s roster spot. Betemit has some excellent #’s from the left side.
.371 wOBA vs RHP over the past 2 seasons. That’s better than Mike Stanton, Justin Upton, and Mike Napoli.
Maddon is the type of manager that wouldn’t give Betemit ABs vs LHP that he can’t handle and never has.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I'm down with that.
I didn’t realize he was so cheap.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 13, 2011 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
2010 and 11 are both outliers
I’m just happy 2011 is finally being included.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 13, 2011 8:21 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I don't think 2011 is an outlier of overall performance
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
see: 2007.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe not outlier, but highest end of expected range which is not a likely scenario to be achieved again in the following season?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
He was better in 2007!
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 14, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe it wasn't consecutive seasons, but he's shown he can put up this performance multiple times in his career.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 14, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
off-season analysis is fun
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 13, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
In other news
Doumit turned down a 1yr, $3Million offer from the Dodgers.
Scratch him off the list.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 13, 2011 10:22 PM EST reply actions
Maybe he wants to be on a contender?
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Or a multi-year deal?
I mean I’d give him 2/4-5 probably
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 13, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
It can go both ways
a 1 yr deal in a spot where he can do well & hit the open market next year helps him. Still, if the Dodgers are giving Juan Rivera $4M, and I’m Doumit, I tell the Dodgers to take their offer and shove it up their ass.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 14, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
What about Harden on a 1-year deal and put him in the pen where he can hopefully stay healthy enough to eat some high leverage innings?
please disregard nonsensical nature of ^
by LoL@MyLackOfSportsKnowledge on Nov 14, 2011 12:29 AM EST reply actions
He generally dislikes being put in the pen and probably would only sign with a team that'd give him a chance to start
But if we could get him for under a couple million with promises of being our set up man then sure, his numbers were pretty good last year in a starting role
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
He signed for 1.5 plus incentives last year and then had more injury issues (trade to Red Sox voided), so you would think he would start to consider other options to reestablish his value
I know we’ve had interest in him in the past (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/as-to-sign-rich-harden-1.html). He’s only 29, great K ratio’s as always, that would only get better in the pen. Seems like an ideal candidate to fit the Rays “guy’s coming off injury looking to reestablish their value on a 1-year deal for cheap-ish.” No?
please disregard nonsensical nature of ^
by LoL@MyLackOfSportsKnowledge on Nov 14, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Absolutely, if he's up for moving to the pen then Tampa bay would be a logical option for him too
But some guys really really try clinging to rotation spots and for better or worse Harden seems to be one of them
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

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