2011 Rays, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 14, 2011 1:29 AM EST

Here is a look at how the Rays 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Rays games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5236 which translates to an expected win total of 84.83 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Rays game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4885 or 79.14 wins. The Rays actually went 91-71 on the season. The Rays also had 31.6 fWAR as a team for the entire season. They seemed to outplay all of the predictions. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Rays were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	TB Win Perc	Sim TB Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	09-13-2011	David Price	Alfredo Simon	TB	BAL	TB	67.638	67.638	54.308	BAL	2	4	6
2	09-02-11	Zach Britton	David Price	BAL	TB	TB	67.213	67.213	56.14	BAL	3	2	5
3	09-23-2011	Brandon Morrow	David Price	TOR	TB	TB	66.499	66.499	59.03	TOR	5	1	6
4	08-23-2011	Brad Penny	David Price	DET	TB	TB	65.812	65.812	60.303	DET	2	1	3
5	08-20-2011	Charles Furbush	Jeremy Hellickson	SEA	TB	TB	65.338	65.338	63.089	TB	0	8	8
6	04-01-11	Jeremy Guthrie	David Price	BAL	TB	TB	64.222	64.222	55.062	BAL	4	1	5
7	06-19-2011	Chris Volstad	James Shields	FLA	TB	TB	64.093	64.093	69.354	TB	1	2	3
8	08-09-11	Jeff Francis	James Shields	KC	TB	TB	63.964	63.964	59.571	TB	0	4	4
9	08-21-2011	Michael Pineda	James Shields	SEA	TB	TB	63.964	63.964	60.075	TB	7	8	15
10	08-11-11	Danny Duffy	Jeff Niemann	KC	TB	TB	63.702	63.702	64.543	TB	1	4	5
11	09-04-11	Jeremy Guthrie	Jeremy Hellickson	BAL	TB	TB	63.57	63.57	56.034	TB	1	8	9
12	04-02-11	Chris Tillman	James Shields	BAL	TB	TB	63.504	63.504	52.243	BAL	3	1	4
13	05-28-2011	Carlos Carrasco	James Shields	CLE	TB	TB	63.437	63.437	57.784	CLE	7	3	10
14	08-07-11	Trevor Cahill	David Price	OAK	TB	TB	62.687	62.687	59.044	OAK	5	4	9
15	09-27-2011	Bartolo Colon	Jeremy Hellickson	NYA	TB	TB	62.617	62.617	48.739	TB	3	5	8
16	09-03-11	Alfredo Simon	Wade Davis	BAL	TB	TB	62.264	62.264	54.727	TB	3	6	9
17	08-05-11	Guillermo Moscoso	Jeff Niemann	OAK	TB	TB	62.193	62.193	62.384	TB	4	8	12
18	05-05-11	Ricky Romero	David Price	TOR	TB	TB	61.977	61.977	57.048	TB	1	3	4
19	06-29-2011	Edinson Volquez	James Shields	CIN	TB	TB	61.905	61.905	54.555	CIN	4	3	7
20	09-25-2011	Brett Cecil	Wade Davis	TOR	TB	TB	61.832	61.832	57.267	TB	2	5	7
21	05-03-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Wade Davis	TOR	TB	TB	61.686	61.686	58.334	TB	2	3	5
22	08-08-11	Luke Hochevar	Jeremy Hellickson	KC	TB	TB	61.686	61.686	60.475	TB	1	2	3
23	05-27-2011	Josh Tomlin	David Price	CLE	TB	TB	60.861	60.861	63.279	TB	0	5	5
24	05-21-2011	David Price	Javier Vazquez	TB	FLA	TB	60.784	60.784	57.726	FLA	3	5	8
25	09-07-11	Derek Holland	David Price	TEX	TB	TB	60.396	60.396	51.845	TB	4	5	9
26	08-03-11	Carlos Villanueva	James Shields	TOR	TB	TB	60.239	60.239	57.799	TB	1	9	10
27	04-30-2011	Joel Pineiro	James Shields	LAA	TB	TB	60	60	53.878	TB	1	2	3
28	05-17-2011	Ivan Nova	James Shields	NYA	TB	TB	59.514	59.514	50.373	NYA	6	2	8
29	08-06-11	Brandon McCarthy	Alex Cobb	OAK	TB	TB	59.432	59.432	53.47	OAK	8	0	8
30	05-14-2011	Brad Bergesen	Wade Davis	BAL	TB	TB	59.267	59.267	52.1	BAL	6	0	6
31	07-04-11	David Price	Brian Duensing	TB	MIN	TB	59.1	59.1	52.863	MIN	0	7	7
32	09-10-11	Kyle Weiland	Jeremy Hellickson	BOS	TB	TB	58.763	58.763	49.25	TB	5	6	11
33	09-21-2011	James Shields	Phil Hughes	TB	NYA	TB	58.763	58.763	38.66	NYA	2	4	6
34	07-15-2011	Andrew Miller	David Price	BOS	TB	TB	58.592	58.592	58.955	TB	6	9	15
35	08-25-2011	Doug Fister	Jeremy Hellickson	DET	TB	TB	58.592	58.592	45.945	DET	2	0	2
36	05-13-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Jeremy Hellickson	BAL	TB	TB	58.246	58.246	51.053	TB	0	3	3
37	07-03-11	Kyle Lohse	Jeremy Hellickson	STL	TB	TB	58.159	58.159	54.907	TB	3	8	11
38	06-01-11	Colby Lewis	David Price	TEX	TB	TB	57.806	57.806	59.331	TEX	3	0	3
39	07-20-2011	Freddy Garcia	David Price	NYA	TB	TB	57.717	57.717	53.861	NYA	4	0	4
40	06-17-2011	Brad Hand	Wade Davis	FLA	TB	TB	57.627	57.627	62.705	TB	1	5	6
41	09-18-2011	David Price	Tim Wakefield	TB	BOS	TB	57.627	57.627	47.33	TB	8	5	13
42	09-24-2011	Ricky Romero	Jeff Niemann	TOR	TB	TB	57.627	57.627	57.82	TB	2	6	8
43	08-02-11	Ricky Romero	David Price	TOR	TB	TB	57.537	57.537	57.313	TOR	3	1	4
44	05-22-2011	James Shields	Jay Buente	TB	FLA	TB	57.537	57.537	52.387	TB	4	0	4
45	05-29-2011	Justin Masterson	Jeremy Hellickson	CLE	TB	TB	57.537	57.537	50.902	TB	0	7	7
46	05-01-11	Tyler Chatwood	Alex Cobb	LAA	TB	TB	57.447	57.447	53.949	LAA	6	5	11
47	07-16-2011	John Lackey	James Shields	BOS	TB	TB	57.356	57.356	51.013	BOS	9	5	14
48	09-22-2011	Matt Moore	Bartolo Colon	TB	NYA	TB	57.265	57.265	41.88	TB	15	8	23
49	09-14-2011	Wade Davis	Jeremy Guthrie	TB	BAL	TB	57.173	57.173	46.087	BAL	2	6	8
50	06-18-2011	Ricky Nolasco	Alex Cobb	FLA	TB	TB	57.082	57.082	58.174	TB	4	7	11
51	04-29-2011	Ervin Santana	David Price	LAA	TB	TB	56.989	56.989	54.215	LAA	8	5	13
52	07-26-2011	David Price	Brandon McCarthy	TB	OAK	TB	56.989	56.989	48.783	OAK	1	6	7
53	09-05-11	Scott Feldman	James Shields	TEX	TB	TB	56.803	56.803	52.467	TB	1	5	6
54	06-06-11	David Price	Tyler Chatwood	TB	LAA	TB	56.803	56.803	59.011	TB	5	1	6
55	08-10-11	Felipe Paulino	Wade Davis	KC	TB	TB	56.803	56.803	52.549	TB	7	8	15
56	05-16-2011	A.J. Burnett	David Price	NYA	TB	TB	56.803	56.803	56.118	TB	5	6	11
57	09-28-2011	Hector Noesi	David Price	NYA	TB	TB	56.427	56.427	56.466	TB	7	8	15
58	06-28-2011	Johnny Cueto	David Price	CIN	TB	TB	56.236	56.236	56.762	TB	3	4	7
59	06-26-2011	Jeff Niemann	J.A. Happ	TB	HOU	TB	56.044	56.044	51.313	TB	14	10	24
60	07-02-11	Kyle McClellan	Jeff Niemann	STL	TB	TB	55.85	55.85	55.041	TB	1	5	6
61	06-04-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Doug Fister	TB	SEA	TB	55.85	55.85	46.433	TB	3	2	5
62	04-17-2011	Brian Duensing	Jeremy Hellickson	MIN	TB	TB	55.654	55.654	49.117	MIN	4	2	6
63	04-18-2011	Edwin Jackson	David Price	CHA	TB	TB	55.654	55.654	53.316	TB	0	5	5
64	04-20-2011	Phil Humber	Wade Davis	CHA	TB	TB	55.556	55.556	55.152	TB	1	4	5
65	07-01-11	Jake Westbrook	Wade Davis	STL	TB	TB	55.457	55.457	53.171	STL	5	3	8
66	08-26-2011	James Shields	Henderson Alvarez	TB	TOR	TB	55.457	55.457	51.345	TB	6	1	7
67	06-24-2011	James Shields	Wandy Rodriguez	TB	HOU	TB	55.257	55.257	52.014	TB	5	1	6
68	06-11-11	David Price	Jeremy Guthrie	TB	BAL	TB	54.955	54.955	56.145	TB	7	5	12
69	04-14-2011	Carl Pavano	James Shields	MIN	TB	TB	54.751	54.751	47.01	TB	3	4	7
70	06-10-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Jake Arrieta	TB	BAL	TB	54.649	54.649	51.527	BAL	0	7	7
71	04-15-2011	Nick Blackburn	Wade Davis	MIN	TB	TB	54.649	54.649	51.442	TB	2	5	7
72	08-04-11	Brett Cecil	Wade Davis	TOR	TB	TB	54.442	54.442	52.704	TB	6	7	13
73	09-12-11	Jeff Niemann	Zach Britton	TB	BAL	TB	54.233	54.233	40.516	TB	5	2	7
74	06-14-2011	Tim Wakefield	James Shields	BOS	TB	TB	54.023	54.023	51.735	TB	0	4	4
75	07-27-2011	James Shields	Trevor Cahill	TB	OAK	TB	53.917	53.917	50.155	OAK	4	13	17
76	04-16-2011	Scott Baker	Jeff Niemann	MIN	TB	TB	53.811	53.811	50.031	TB	3	4	7
77	05-08-11	Wade Davis	Brad Bergesen	TB	BAL	TB	53.704	53.704	46.065	TB	5	3	8
78	05-04-11	Brandon Morrow	Jeff Niemann	TOR	TB	TB	53.596	53.596	51.907	TOR	3	2	5
79	07-25-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Guillermo Moscoso	TB	OAK	TB	53.38	53.38	49.359	OAK	5	7	12
80	06-16-2011	Clay Buchholz	David Price	BOS	TB	TB	53.162	53.162	57.11	BOS	4	2	6
81	04-03-11	Zach Britton	Wade Davis	BAL	TB	TB	53.052	53.052	48.16	BAL	5	1	6
82	05-11-11	David Price	Carlos Carrasco	TB	CLE	TB	52.941	52.941	53.603	TB	8	2	10
83	04-23-2011	David Price	Brandon Morrow	TB	TOR	TB	52.941	52.941	51.756	TB	6	4	10
84	09-26-2011	Hector Noesi	James Shields	NYA	TB	TB	52.941	52.941	52.868	TB	2	5	7
85	05-15-2011	Jake Arrieta	Andy Sonnanstine	BAL	TB	TB	52.607	52.607	48.606	BAL	9	3	12
86	08-27-2011	Jeff Niemann	Luis Perez	TB	TOR	TB	52.494	52.494	51.461	TB	6	5	11
87	07-31-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Jason Vargas	TB	SEA	TB	52.267	52.267	48.258	TB	8	1	9
88	08-28-2011	David Price	Brandon Morrow	TB	TOR	TB	52.267	52.267	43.316	TB	12	0	12
89	05-12-11	James Shields	Justin Masterson	TB	CLE	TB	51.923	51.923	43.586	TB	7	4	11
90	07-05-11	James Shields	Scott Baker	TB	MIN	TB	51.807	51.807	47.456	MIN	2	3	5
91	04-22-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Jo-Jo Reyes	TB	TOR	TB	51.338	51.338	49.583	TOR	4	6	10
92	06-27-2011	Mike Leake	Jeremy Hellickson	CIN	TB	TB	51.338	51.338	49.841	CIN	5	0	5
93	04-06-11	Dan Haren	Jeremy Hellickson	LAA	TB	TB	51.22	51.22	49.345	LAA	5	1	6
94	04-28-2011	Jeff Niemann	Anthony Swarzak	TB	MIN	TB	51.22	51.22	45.625	TB	6	1	7
95	07-29-2011	Jeff Niemann	Erik Bedard	TB	SEA	TB	50.739	50.739	46.851	TB	8	0	8
96	08-24-2011	Max Scherzer	Wade Davis	DET	TB	TB	50.617	50.617	47.913	TB	2	3	5
97	05-30-2011	Derek Holland	Wade Davis	TEX	TB	TB	50.495	50.495	46.395	TEX	11	5	16
98	09-09-11	John Lackey	Wade Davis	BOS	TB	TB	50.249	50.249	45.643	TB	2	7	9
99	07-23-2011	Jeff Niemann	Jeff Francis	TB	KC	TB	50.249	50.249	50.571	KC	4	5	9
100	05-18-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Jesse Litsch	TB	TOR	TB	50	50	51.863	TB	6	5	11
101	04-21-2011	Gavin Floyd	Jeff Niemann	CHA	TB	CHA	50.249	49.751	45.526	CHA	9	2	11
102	04-05-11	Jered Weaver	Jeff Niemann	LAA	TB	LAA	50.495	49.505	46.446	LAA	5	3	8
103	05-07-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Jeremy Guthrie	TB	BAL	BAL	50.617	49.383	38.759	TB	8	2	10
104	04-19-2011	John Danks	James Shields	CHA	TB	CHA	50.617	49.383	50.05	TB	1	2	3
105	07-19-2011	Bartolo Colon	Jeremy Hellickson	NYA	TB	NYA	50.739	49.261	46.36	TB	2	3	5
106	07-22-2011	Wade Davis	Luke Hochevar	TB	KC	KC	50.86	49.14	51.341	KC	4	10	14
107	08-17-2011	David Price	John Lackey	TB	BOS	BOS	50.86	49.14	41.187	TB	4	0	4
108	04-28-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Nick Blackburn	TB	MIN	MIN	51.22	48.78	45.985	TB	15	3	18
109	09-06-11	C.J. Wilson	Jeff Niemann	TEX	TB	TEX	51.338	48.662	44.072	TEX	8	0	8
110	09-11-11	Jon Lester	James Shields	BOS	TB	BOS	51.338	48.662	44.351	TB	1	9	10
111	05-23-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Phil Coke	TB	DET	DET	51.338	48.662	45.695	DET	3	6	9
112	09-15-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Kyle Weiland	TB	BOS	BOS	51.456	48.544	40.169	TB	9	2	11
113	04-09-11	Wade Davis	Phil Humber	TB	CHA	CHA	51.574	48.426	50.14	CHA	2	4	6
114	07-09-11	David Price	A.J. Burnett	TB	NYA	NYA	51.574	48.426	46.844	NYA	4	5	9
115	07-24-2011	Alex Cobb	Felipe Paulino	TB	KC	KC	51.574	48.426	43.229	TB	5	0	5
116	06-22-2011	David Price	Shaun Marcum	TB	MIL	MIL	51.923	48.077	53.918	TB	6	3	9
117	07-30-2011	Alex Cobb	Michael Pineda	TB	SEA	SEA	52.038	47.962	45.696	SEA	2	3	5
118	05-06-11	James Shields	Zach Britton	TB	BAL	BAL	52.267	47.733	42.954	TB	6	2	8
119	06-02-11	James Shields	Felx Hernandez	TB	SEA	SEA	52.381	47.619	45.717	SEA	2	8	10
120	06-25-2011	Wade Davis	Bud Norris	TB	HOU	HOU	52.494	47.506	46.5	TB	7	2	9
121	06-03-11	Andy Sonnanstine	Jason Vargas	TB	SEA	SEA	52.941	47.059	44.731	SEA	0	7	7
122	08-19-2011	Felx Hernandez	Wade Davis	SEA	TB	SEA	52.941	47.059	54.028	TB	2	3	5
123	06-13-2011	Alex Cobb	Phil Coke	TB	DET	DET	53.162	46.838	45.647	DET	1	2	3
124	07-18-2011	A.J. Burnett	Alex Cobb	NYA	TB	NYA	53.596	46.404	48.52	NYA	5	4	9
125	07-06-11	Wade Davis	Francisco Liriano	TB	MIN	MIN	54.233	45.767	41.182	TB	12	5	17
126	06-12-11	Wade Davis	Brian Matusz	TB	BAL	BAL	54.545	45.455	42.499	TB	9	6	15
127	07-28-2011	Wade Davis	Rich Harden	TB	OAK	OAK	54.649	45.351	45.854	TB	10	8	18
128	06-15-2011	Josh Beckett	Jeremy Hellickson	BOS	TB	BOS	54.853	45.147	44.777	BOS	3	0	3
129	05-31-2011	C.J. Wilson	Alex Cobb	TEX	TB	TEX	55.056	44.944	44.378	TB	4	5	9
130	05-10-11	Andy Sonnanstine	Josh Tomlin	TB	CLE	CLE	55.157	44.843	48.848	CLE	5	4	9
131	04-07-11	David Price	Edwin Jackson	TB	CHA	CHA	55.556	44.444	50.121	CHA	1	5	6
132	06-21-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Zach Greinke	TB	MIL	MIL	55.654	44.346	41.143	MIL	1	5	6
133	04-24-2011	James Shields	Ricky Romero	TB	TOR	TOR	56.044	43.956	41.515	TB	2	0	2
134	08-31-2011	James Shields	Alexi Ogando	TB	TEX	TEX	56.044	43.956	40.173	TB	4	1	5
135	04-27-2011	Jeff Niemann	Francisco Liriano	TB	MIN	MIN	56.427	43.573	40.538	TB	8	2	10
136	05-19-2011	Wade Davis	Ricky Romero	TB	TOR	TOR	56.427	43.573	46.772	TOR	2	3	5
137	06-05-11	Wade Davis	Erik Bedard	TB	SEA	SEA	56.616	43.384	44.653	SEA	6	9	15
138	07-21-2011	C.C. Sabathia	James Shields	NYA	TB	NYA	56.989	43.011	41.368	TB	1	2	3
139	08-13-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Phil Hughes	TB	NYA	NYA	56.989	43.011	36.35	NYA	2	9	11
140	08-22-2011	Justin Verlander	Jeff Niemann	DET	TB	DET	56.989	43.011	44.876	DET	5	2	7
141	07-17-2011	Josh Beckett	Jeff Niemann	BOS	TB	BOS	57.082	42.918	41.473	BOS	1	0	1
142	04-08-11	James Shields	John Danks	TB	CHA	CHA	57.265	42.735	43.093	TB	9	7	16
143	09-16-2011	James Shields	Josh Beckett	TB	BOS	BOS	57.356	42.644	35.773	BOS	3	4	7
144	06-20-2011	Jeff Niemann	Chris Narveson	TB	MIL	MIL	57.537	42.463	42.907	TB	8	4	12
145	09-01-11	Jeff Niemann	C.J. Wilson	TB	TEX	TEX	57.895	42.105	35.303	TEX	2	7	9
146	06-08-11	James Shields	Jered Weaver	TB	LAA	LAA	58.592	41.408	40.256	TB	4	3	7
147	04-10-11	Jeff Niemann	Gavin Floyd	TB	CHA	CHA	58.592	41.408	38.375	CHA	1	6	7
148	04-11-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Daisuke Matsuzaka	TB	BOS	BOS	59.184	40.816	42.052	TB	16	5	21
149	08-29-2011	Wade Davis	Ricky Romero	TB	TOR	TOR	59.267	40.733	42.228	TOR	3	7	10
150	09-20-2011	Wade Davis	Ivan Nova	TB	NYA	NYA	59.267	40.733	32.46	NYA	0	5	5
151	08-16-2011	James Shields	Jon Lester	TB	BOS	BOS	59.759	40.241	34.692	BOS	1	3	4
152	08-30-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Scott Feldman	TB	TEX	TEX	59.759	40.241	40.413	TEX	0	2	2
153	08-16-2011	Jeff Niemann	Erik Bedard	TB	BOS	BOS	60.239	39.761	33.934	TB	6	2	8
154	07-10-11	James Shields	C.C. Sabathia	TB	NYA	NYA	60.317	39.683	29.652	NYA	0	1	1
155	05-20-2011	Andy Sonnanstine	Anibal Sanchez	TB	FLA	FLA	60.396	39.604	36.389	FLA	3	5	8
156	05-24-2011	Wade Davis	Justin Verlander	TB	DET	DET	61.014	38.986	39.705	DET	6	7	13
157	06-07-11	Alex Cobb	Dan Haren	TB	LAA	LAA	61.538	38.462	39.755	TB	4	1	5
158	09-21-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	C.C. Sabathia	TB	NYA	NYA	61.538	38.462	27.57	NYA	2	4	6
159	07-07-11	Jeff Niemann	Bartolo Colon	TB	NYA	NYA	61.686	38.314	29.318	TB	5	1	6
160	09-17-2011	Jeff Niemann	Jon Lester	TB	BOS	BOS	61.977	38.023	34.32	TB	4	3	7
161	04-12-11	David Price	Jon Lester	TB	BOS	BOS	62.477	37.523	42.561	TB	3	2	5
162	08-12-11	David Price	C.C. Sabathia	TB	NYA	NYA	62.894	37.106	31.871	TB	5	1	6

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

Interesting

Pardon my ignorance.
But what does your simulation run off?
How closely does it generally match with team win totals?
How closely does Vegas usually get to team win totals?

by Whelk on Nov 14, 2011 2:14 PM EST reply actions

But what does your simulation run off?

Not sure what this question means but it uses a proprietary set of hitting/pitching projections and takes into consideration as best as I can model defense, park factors, splits, speed and a few other things.

How closely does it generally match with team win totals?

All I can say right now, is pretty close. Of the ones I’ve done so far the Rays one has been the worst for my simulator as far as being an outlier from actual wins and Vegas expected wins. In general the teams that either have really high or low win totals will not match too closely against the Vegas and Sim expected win totals. Teams with really good records have usually outperformed their true talent level as a team and same for the really bad records.

How closely does Vegas usually get to team win totals?

When I finish this exercise for all 30 teams I will have a post (probably at my blog and not here) that shows the actual, vegas expected, sim expected win totals and see which had the lowest margin of error and which teams out/under performed their Vegas expected win totals by the most.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 14, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions