The Rays Tank: Papelbon Is Gone, Hellickson For ROY, And New Uniforms In Miami
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 14, 2011 8:16 AM EST
in The Rays Tank
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Over the weekend, Aaron Hill signed a 2 year, $11 million contract with the Diamondbacks. If you think his talent level is around what he's produced over the past two years -- .291 wOBA, 1.0 WAR/year average -- then the deal is about market rate. But there's always the outside possibility that he could rediscover his 2009 self -- 36 HR, 4.1 WAR -- in the hitting-friendly Arizona air. So now the big question is, do the Blue Jays move Brett Lawrie back to second base, or does he stick at third?
Speaking of the Blue Jays, their GM Alex Anthopolous answered some questions this weekend and MLB Trade Rumors lists some highlights. He's shocked by the price of free agent closers, and not interested in trading J.P. Arencibia even though top prospect Travis d'Arnaud will be in Triple-A next season. I'd love if the Rays could work out a deal for Arencibia, but if the Jays aren't willing it deal yet....sigh.
Oh! I nearly forgot: Jonathan Papelbon is no longer a Boston Red Sox, but you can still feel okay hating him as he signed with the Phillies. There have been few closers in baseball as effective as Paps has been over the last few seasons, so even if the Sox get another closer, I'm glad to get him out of the division.
The Miami Marlins officially unveiled their new uniforms Friday night, and while everyone's making them out to be hideous, I like the new look. They stuck with a standard black and gray as their primary uniform colors for home/away, so their logo adds a splash of color. Sure, those colors are all rather bright, but they're not overwhelming or overpowering when presented this way. I'm probably going to end up buying one of those hats.
Then again, I like bright colors and tie-dye, so take my opinion for what it is.
Buck O'Neil sadly passed away a few years ago, but yesterday would have been his 100th birthday. SABR has a retrospective on him up, and I recommend checking it out.
Rays Talk
John Sickels has his preliminary prospect list up for the Rays, and he's looking for some input before he ends up ranking everyone. He lists 51 prospects that have a case to be included in his final rankings, and looking through the list, I'm blown away all over again by the Rays' depth. This is one fun minor league system to follow.
FanGraphs has a Q&A with Jeremy Hellickson up right now, in anticipation of this afternoon's unveiling of the AL Rookie of the Year award. Keep your fingers crossed for Helly.
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Who's Narwhal's biggest competition for ROY?
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
One of your boys banned me from Buc Em yesterday--it was the first time i was on all year
Can you take care of it?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
You weren't banned, just warned.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
thx,only a casual fan of theirs, but i got the urge after that disaster
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I like the Hellickson interview.
It’s interesting to hear his perspective on the fly balls and how he felt his season went.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Yea, FBs aren't bad if you can manage your walks
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Nov 14, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
Well, FBs are basically always worse than GBs
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
GBs go for more hits
FBs that don’t leave the yard are outs most of the time. Pop ups are always outs. You don’t see a lot of fly ball rallies.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
GBs can also turn into double plays and are almost never extra base hits.
Whereas fly balls are far more likely to go for extra bases
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Either one, in an extreme, is a signal of the ability to generate weak contact.
Pitchers with very high GB or FB percentages have some ability to repeat smaller BABIPs.
Nah there's generally a positive correlation between GB% and BABIP
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think anyone is gonna agree with you bub
but maybe we’ll ask you if we need to know which one is statistically more exciting?
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I swear I've seen something like this on fangraphs
Let me see if I can find it
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the bit about ground balls at the extreme.
The infield defense behind Brandon Webb has been very average in his career, but his BABIP on ground balls is not the league-average .233. During his career, it’s been .205. Webb’s sinker is heavy, and it has a tendency to chop off the bottom of the bat. Nearly every pitcher with Webb-like ground-ball skills allows fewer grounders to go for hits. Fausto Carmona, Roy Halladay, Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Chien-Ming Wang and Jake Westbrook all rack up ground outs. This is why the coefficient on net ground-ball-rate squared is actually negative.
In other words, a pitcher who increases in ground-ball rate from 45% to 50% will not help his SIERA as much as a pitcher who increases his ground-ball rate from 55% to 60%, because even though both are giving up fewer home runs by increasing their ground-ball rates, the latter pitcher is getting more outs on those extra ground balls.
This is probably the most important non-linear term included in SIERA. In the article linked above, I showed that all of the pitchers who had consecutive 60% ground-ball-rate seasons had below average BABIPs on ground balls.
Man that prospect list is sick. Its so deep. There are names left off the 51 that could be top 20 in some systems.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I feel disgusted when I hear that the Rays farm system isn't that good anymore.
I would love to see three better systems.
Well as far as A grade prospects we went from having 3 at the beginning of the year to 1 now
So I can see the logic behind that claim, even if the reason is because our top specs are busy kicking ass in the majors
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure what side I would put him on of A-/B+
I see the argument for an A- but his end to the season in AA was pretty disastrous. It’s a tough call
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Lucky for us we have 51 to choose from.
Most teams only have 20-25 players that 90% of won’t see a 25 man roster.
by ReyL on Nov 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
finally someone who answered this correctly--was hoping MrManiac would rush in and tell me how ridiculous this was
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
It is a little ridiculous.
Moore, Torres, De la Rosa, Guyer, and Canzler have all made a 25 man roster.
Are you telling me not 1 other player will make it to a 25 man roster?
Almost 10% have (4), and at least 1 more will this year (Canzler).
McGee is also listed there (though he shouldn’t be).
Archer, Beckham, Bush, Canzler, Colome, DDLR, Fleming, Guyer, Lee, McGee, Moore, and Torres are near locks (or already have) to appear on a 25-man roster. All you need is 3-4 more to get to the 15 needed for 30%. I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t see 15 of these guys on a 25-man at some point.
so you're saying you would not be surprised if 70% of our top 51 prospects make a 25-man?
that’s stupidly optimistic.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
"id [sic] be pretty surprised if 30% dont [sic] [make the 25-man]"
learn to write?
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
thats exactly what it implies. its called an eliptical. you add so much to the conversation. thanks!
dont you have a cute website to visit?
I'm just using your reasoning to show the Rays are still way better off than most, if not all other.
I think 10% is much to low. If you were saying 10% of top 10th round draft picks, I might agree. I just don’t agree that only 10% of a teams top prospects will make a 25 man.
Odds of a Rays deal at GM Meetings this week?
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 14, 2011 12:25 PM EST reply actions
"Then again, I like bright colors and tie-dye"
/DHazeBay’d
I dunno, I’m in the “the unis look awful” crowd. Then again, I hated the Rays new name/logo/colors in 2008 and I’ve learned to love it, so maybe I just fear change.
According to Kenny Boy Rosenthal
Hiroyuki Nakajima, SS of Seibu Lions will be posted. A career slash line of .305/.380/.490 (approx only, it’s hard looking these stuff up) is somewhat close to Iwamura’s Japan line of .295/.365/.500.
I wouldn’t mind a .750 OPS out of SS the next couple of years. Hope he comes as cheap too.
he probably would not be good for a .750 OPS
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 14, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
.870 in Japan isn't good enough for .750 here?
I really don’t know. But it’s got to be better than Reid. And Rodriguez against righties.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 14, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
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