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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

The Rays Tank: Hellickson's Future, Joey Votto Rumors, and Peter Angelos

ST PETERSBURG, FL - FILE: Pitcher Jeremy Hellickson #58 of the Tampa Bay Rays blows a bubble against the Toronto Blue Jays during the game at Tropicana Field on September 23, 2011 in St. Petersburg, Florida.  Hellickson was named the winner of the AL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award on November 14, 2011. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

MLB Chatter

Today's excellent long-form piece: a profile on Orioles' owner Peter Angelos. I never knew the extent of Angelos' contributions to the city of Baltimore, and this piece made me feel almost sorry for Angelos. He can't get out of his own way, and it's ruining what would otherwise be a sterling reputation in the city. He's his own enemy these days, and it's sinking the Orioles.

Aaron Darowski unveiled a new Hall of wWAR, which is his version of what the Hall of Fame would look like if you used WAR to measure performance. The visualization is fun to play with, but click the link at the top if you want a description of his methodology.

With the Marlins rumored to be interested in nearly every big name free agent on the market, I got curious: how close are the Fish to competing? Where do they fall on the Win Curve? Brad answered that yesterday by doing some WAR projections based on potential moves they could make, and he came to the conclusion that they're around an 82 win team if they make no significant move. With every free agent signing, though, they push themselves closer and closer to competitiveness.

We all thought sabermetrics was a newfangled thing, but it turns out that the rudiments of wOBA were actually discussed 100 years ago. Go figure. 

Rays Talk

The most recent rumor surrounding the Rays involves...wait for it...Joey Votto. Check it out:

#Rays concentrating on 1b, DH, 2 rlvrs. Want to hold SP depth, but would change if Votto became available #Reds (Joel Sherman)

Well then. Votto would certainly be an impact bat, although his contract is pricey enough that I wouldn't expect the Rays to actually complete a deal. It's always worthwhile to kick the tires, though.

Tommy Rancel has been busy over at ESPN Florida. Last week he looked at why the Rays might be interested in Jonathan Broxton and Guillermo Mota, and he has a piece up now on how the Rookie of the Year award likely affects Hellickson's future salary. They're all excellent reads, so be sure to check them out.

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It's a damn shame when the system starts penalizing teams for doing their jobs

better than the other teams. I’m speaking of the so called six cost controlled years of a player’s service time.

We’ve already traded Matt Garza before his time. Soon we’ll waive good bye to Davis Price, Jeremy Hellickson and maybe Desmond Jennings long before their arby3 year.

Also, while we applauded the signing of Evan Longoria to that nine year deal, at their present state do you really see them willing to pick up any of those option years?

And the sad thing is the new CBA isn’t dealing with any of this

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 8:21 AM EST reply actions  

The Rays were willing to pay Pat Burrell $9M to play DH;

I’m fairly certain they are will to pay Longo $11.5M to play an elite 3rd base.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Nov 15, 2011 8:28 AM EST up reply actions  

6 Years of team control are a joke in the current system.

If Price continues to produce like he has the last 2 years the Rays will be lucky to afford him for the next 2 years leaving 2 years of “team control.” And then how many teams will the Rays be able to trade a pitcher that could be making $35-40MM over those last 2 years, so they won’t be able to get the return in a trade a player of his caliber should bring.

by jtmorgan on Nov 15, 2011 8:46 AM EST up reply actions  

this could be one of those "Soriano" cases

It’s a lot, but how often do you get a chance to get an MVP in the prime of his career? This would be a “going for it” type of move.

More likely, the Rays are countering in the media. Reds are probably saying if you want Alonso, it’ll cost you Shields. Rays are saying if you want Shields, it’ll cost you Votto. This could be setting the stage for a Niemann/Davis for Alonso deal.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 15, 2011 8:48 AM EST up reply actions  

How awesome would that be?

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 15, 2011 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

NO TO VOTTO

Having Joey Votto and not having James Shields does not make the Rays more likely to win the AL East, the Wild Card, or the World Series.

The Rays need to acquire a bat, but not at the expense of the big 4.

The Rays finished Aug/Sept at a record of 35-20. Desmond Jennings was a real bonus (even with his slump) and Evan Longoria when he finally got healthy and hit his stride proved why MVP is in his future. The Rays best chance at glory will be 2012 and it will only require minor additions to the offense and a minor acceptance of a 55 million dollar payroll from management.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 8:54 AM EST up reply actions  

It always amazes me when stat boys discount a SP like SHields and his skill set

They think SP’s who throw 220 IP+ just fall off trees

Does this team need a bat or two? YES

Is it in need of the blockbuster deal some speak of to get it? NO

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

How do you suggest the team acquire a bat or two?

Put together a proposal of where, which guys to target, & how much it will cost.

Additionally, how do you feel the team should address the issue of having 8 starting pitchers that could throw in any MLB rotation right now in Shields, Price, Niemann, Davis, Hellickson, Cobb, Torres, and Moore.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I have repeatedly stated the top three players i want

Sizemore and Shop are FA’s

Morales could be had with either Nieman or Davis as center pieces

As a back up let Andrew dangle Davis or Niemann, but as MrNeg states, i’m not giving up the big 4 for anyone

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I can't believe you want Shop back after railing against him all season

Morales foot issue and may miss 1st 6 weeks of camp/season
Sizemore health issues
Shoppach is going to get $3.5-4M if Barajas did.

Open market pricing alone for your last 2 should be around $10M. Adding Sizemore includes moving BJ or are you including a shift of Joyce to DH or 1b?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I railed "all year" against Shop?

At times i’ve railed on everyone, but i believe i’ve been in his corner longer than most

As for Sizemore’s health issue, what do you perceive it to be?

The news on Morales is a set back

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Before or after FreeZo changed your mind on Shoppach?
Would you buy a ticket to watch Shoppach, Elliott Johnson or Brignac swing a bat?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore has had back to back seasons of <300 PA

had knee surgery on 10/3/11
Sports hernia 7/21/11
Microfracture patella 6/4/10
Sports hernia 9/16/09
Elbow cleanup 9/9/09

Anything more than 1y/$4M and some other team can have him.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I will follow Grady's 2012 season very closely, reminding you along the way

of his success, maybe you’ll see it yourself as he crushes HR’s v the Rays as a member of the Yankees or Sox

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't believe Sizemore would choose the Rays if he's trying to reestablish value.

Just based on injury history and the potential of the turf causing problems even if the Rays offered the most money, within reason of course.

by jtmorgan on Nov 15, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

excellent point JT

Not the best place to come rebuild one’s value given turf and park factors.

His name value is going to cause someone to pay more than he’s been worth over the past two seasons.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

It's not his name value

it’s the fact that he has a high ceiling for a guy that can be brought in for the fiscal commitment of 6 million dollars.

Even his horrible showing last year resulted in 32 extra base hits in 295 PAs.

With Grady Sizemore you have to look at what he can bring a club and not focus on the easily spotted negatives associated with his past 2 years. Nobody can win the “sign Grady Sizemore” argument today. All a fan can do is point to what his upside could be and if a team has enough $ to risk the signing.

In the Rays case, they probably don’t have the $ to risk signing Grady. It would inhibit them from adding elsewhere. It doesn’t mean that Grady couldn’t help the Rays immensely if he can stay healthy.

Arguing for Grady Sizemore is the most difficult of tasks. But, like most arguments, the real debate isn’t among fans it’s among GMs and the GMs are setting the market and interest level for Grady much greater than any of his negative stats. If GMs operated on statistics alone Grady would be offered a deal similar to Eric Chavez with the Yankees, but he isn’t.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

the ISO spike is nice

But his ISO was .197 in 2009 and he struck out 18% of the time while walking 12%. He had a .198 ISO this past season while walking at just 6% and striking out 29% of the time. That’s not the type of gain I want to see from a guy.

The injuries are to his trunk and his knees – the latter is not going to be helped on this turf.

I’m all for him coming here on a 1/4 deal – once it gets to anything more than what Damon was given this past season, I get violently ill. Damon had defensive concerns, but he also had a track record of playing 140+ games year after year after year.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

your using stats

Forget the numbers overall. Forget the stupid extra base hits that I posted! It’snot about numbers or stats.

Forget Tampa Bay.

1 year 4 million wouldn’t get you an invite to talk to Sizemore.

Forget the Injuries.

Grady’s market is growing. GMs don’t use stats to evaluate Sizemore, his #’s over the last two years have been given a free pass so to speak.

He will get his 6-8 million base salary plus incentives to push to 10 million.

No matter how many negative statistics we want to throw up there or how we want to characterize him as an injury risk or how we want to call him garbage——it’s all noise. He is going to get his money from someone.

The easiest thing to do is show the stats as to why he shouldn’t be signed. In the Grady Sizemore case, stats can’t shout down the GMs who are going to pay him.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Just not a risk I want to take

Give a guy $8M and he gets another big injury early and that’s 15% of the Rays’ team payroll doing nothing for the team. Maybe if this was last season and a Desmond Jennings was waiting in the wings in Durham but that fallback option is not there this season.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

forget the Rays

I’ll let you and others battle it out as if the Rays should sign him.

(If Grady would sign for a base of 4 million in tampa with easily achieved incentive to push it to 8 mil..I do it in a minute).

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

4 with incentives to double it -- I'm right there with you

But his agent likely wouldn’t be :)

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

yep

I continue to wonder if Grady will sign before doing a public workout for teams.

If he does the public workout and excels with all his skills if a team will just go with the Beltre model?

He is certainly the oddity in free agency this year. Young, tremendous upside, and available to anyone. He’s like the non-drug issue Josh Hamilton! With Hamilton teams hoped he’d stay clean with Grady you hope he avoids his yearly folly on the basepaths!!!

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd propose 2 solutions

1 yr/4M with incentives to 6M on PAs or 1 yr with a mutual option that doubles his pay and makes it a 2yr/12M deal. If he does great in 2012, gives him the out clause to hit the open market again.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

here's the thing

he’ll get a base around 6 mil or don’t come talk to him.

Incentives will get him to 10 million because he probably has an ego and wants to make more than what CLE would’ve paid him.

If I’m the Rays I can’t even approach him.

If I’m a team with $ to make a mistake I offer him 8 mil base plus 4 mil in incentives (if he does a workout first!).

If he doesn’t do a workout a 6 mil base plus in incentives.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Spending that kind of money

I’d rather get Loney, I think his power numbers would increase in the ALE, and would provide solid d at 1st. 3yrs $15-18 with a 4th year option and a team buy out option after the 2nd season.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 16, 2011 6:53 AM EST up reply actions  

yes, you may be on to something there

I guess I should clearly spell out….“his negative stats aren’t determining his value”

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

And his positive stats are not?

Let me ask you this. If Grady Sizemore was a top prospect and sucked in MLB for his whole career, would he get this type of contract?

His positive stats will get him the contract. You can’t look at only one side of the situation.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

the argument

has veered into me being portrayed as a silly stat hater and you being a defender of stats.

Let’s just say that Grady’s statistics are being weighed differently by GMs than normal free agents.

I would surmise that the general feeling is “we know what he can do when healthy (positive stats here)” and the conversation quickly turns to budget and medical records.

Teams aren’t going to mine numbers with Sizemore.

Stats + Medical + $$$ the second two variables will be weighted far above the first.

I am not a stat hater and am not going to continue dancing in circles as if I am.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

No, I'm not portraying you as such.

I’m still confused why they will weigh them differently in this case.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I despise this arguement.

“If GMs operated on statistics alone Grady would be offered a deal similar to Eric Chavez with the Yankees, but he isn’t.”

And why isn’t he? Your post was full of fluff without giving any real reasons. First you used some stats. Then you mention how you have to look at his value. Then you sayt he Rays can’t afford the risk. Then you make an obvious statement about how GMs set the price.

What is it that GMs are looking at that is not a statistic? Impact? That can be found in stats. Upside? That can be found in stats.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Negative Stats aren't driving the Grady Train

His upside and potential is. Can’t really state it much more clearer than that.

If his pure numbers of 2010 and 2011 were being used to determine value than he would be valued at far less then what he is going to get.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

His upside and potential is all statistical.

No team is going to pay him just for the sake of it, something you seem to be suggesting. A team is going to sign him because they think he can be healthy enough to warrant such a contract.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

If he's trying to rebuild his value why would he agree to go somewhere where he wouldn't get to play in the outfield?

I agree he has the potential to be worth it in that roles, but don’t feel he would willingly join a team where there isn’t an obvious opportunity to play. 400 ABs with a lot in the DH role won’t do alot for his value moving forward. There appears to be teams willing to give him a starting job.

by jtmorgan on Nov 15, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

hey jt

good thoughts on the arbi Fanpost. I haven’t had time to respond.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks.

The arbitration problems for small and mid market teams are getting out of control. Something needs to be done, but I don’t forsee any real solutions since the Union wants their players to get paid.

by jtmorgan on Nov 15, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

If he weren't a former Indian, how would it change your mind?

He’s been dinged up garbage for 2 years now that h has been below replacement level and his defensive metrics at BPro have been -4 and -3.9 the past two seasons along with a .205 and .253 True Average. 07 and 08 were great years, but he’s been damaged goods in the first two years of his prime ages.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

see above

it’s not Sternfan that is evaluating Grady above his “stats” of the last two years. It’s many GMs who look beyond them and give him a pass.

A GM must ask himself…

Can he stay healthy?

Is the talent gone?

Can we afford to take a 5-6 million dollar risk?

Using any statistical argument against Grady Sizemore isn’t happening in GM circles and it shouldn’t dominate discussion of if team x or y should sign him.

 It’s not a stat based argument. Nobody knows if the talent is gone and the assumption is that it isn’t. Like I said above, if the assumption was that the talent was gone he would be in the same boat Andruw Jones was in a few years ago or Eric Chavez was last year.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

What in the world is this?

Can he stay healthy? Obviously you don’t use stats for that.
Is the talent gone? To see if he eer had talent, you must look at previous stats.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

it's my thoughts

no GM is going to weight the negative statistics that Sizemore has posted the last 2 years as heavily as some would like to believe.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

That is fair enough.....

and far less extreme than what you have been suggesting.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Not less extreme

My whole point was that using his 2010 and 2011 stats to determine his value is the easy way out. Those Numbers will not set his market. If a GM stares at those numbers Grady is Andruw Jones or Eric Chavez and not approaching a contract similar to Beltre in Boston.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

no

Grady is getting somewhat of a pass on his negative numbers. He will get closer to Beltre’s deal in Boston then what Chavez/Jones received.

The ceiling and promise of Sizemore far exceed his negative stats of the last 2-3 years.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

he'll wait for Cason to reply, then

reply the same answer, changing a syllable or two

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore is viewed as a lottery ticket.

For teams who can afford a relatively small amount for the production he has shown he is capable of in the past. His injury history makes for a chance of him being nonproductive. For a 1 year deal with a team that has the money to spare, there is a little risk, but the payoffs could be huge if he can stay healthy.

Because of his age he will receive a deal closer to Beltre than Chavez/Jones since with the latter it’s very probable the dropoff is due to age and only to get worse. With Sizemore some people will believe if he can stay healthy, a big if, he produce similar to what he was able to a few years ago.

by jtmorgan on Nov 15, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

he is certainly an oddity

just fits a different mathematical formula than most free agents so to speak.

I just want him in the NL so if he does achieve his high ceiling its not anywhere near the AL East or AL!

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Philly......

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Philly fans already

gripping that Dom Brown may be dealt this offseason?

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Yep

My good buddy on twitter, @usfsucks, is pissed about it already and it hasn’t even happened.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

shizzit

now I have the “golden ticket” song from Willy Wonka rattling in my head…..

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Define my agenda

There are no winners and losers in discussions, Sterny. We all win from the knowledge and the only losers are those with closed minds.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Loser.

I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.

by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

by pudieron89 on Nov 15, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Honestly, I want Torres in an Alexi Ogando role with the Rays this year

start him in the bullpen with the idea they could move him to the rotation if a starter is needed. Having Torres and McGee would form the most dominant lefty bullpen duo in the majors.

Or Cobb and Torres battle it out for the 5th spot until Moore comes up in late May.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 15, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Fixed:

Or Cobb and Torres battle it out for the 5th spot until Moore comes up in late MayAugust.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Nov 15, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think I'd put them over

Venters and O’Flaherty….but they’d be good.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 16, 2011 6:58 AM EST up reply actions  

How is trading Shields for an MVP discounting his "skill set"?

Just as equally, I think people are thinking .300 hitters with 30 HR and 100 RBI and .400 OBP just fall of trees as well. There are 12 players who are close to the numbers Votto produced, and that’s even giving latitude to close. There are 10 players who pitched over 220 IP with an ERA under 3. And 22 players with an ERA under 4.

Please tell me how there is a “discount” being discussed here? This would be a equal star-for-star trade. And the gist is this: the Rays will only trade one of their big guns if they get a big gun in return. Sounds smart to me.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 15, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Trading 3 years of Shields at $28M for 2 yrs of Votto at $26 gives me some pause

On the surface, it makes sense but losing the year of control is big

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

oh, I agree

3 years vs 2 is huge. And I can understand that being a reason why not to do the deal. But more important for me, I like the star for star requirement to move Shields or Price.

I think I got railed for this before, but I would love a Price for Stanton trade with the Marlins.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 15, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

My wish list includes Grady Sizemore, Kendry Morales and Kelly Shoppach

Morales, the ‘09 version is a lot cheaper than Votto and we’re not giving up Shields to get him.

Sizemore is probably a reach. He wants to play CF, i’m keeping BJ, and he probably wants to avoind the turf at the Trop

The $4mil for a catcher has been set and Shop should be had for less in a 2 year deal

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 8:49 AM EST reply actions  

I love Morales, but I find it hard for the Angels to make a trade that works

Angels don’t want to make a trade for pennies on the dollar. They’ve gotten bad raps on poor trades (Kazmir, Wells). No one will get them a “fair” trade for a guy who’s been out for most of the last two years. I don’t think they have any choice but to keep him.

I’m intrigued by Sizemore as DH with some OF duty, where he can play the field at all 3 positions when on the road (aka, grass).

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 15, 2011 8:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Sizemore's arm prohibits him in RF. But i do agree

and see where the Rays can get him 450 PA w/o everyday play in the OF

As for Morales, the Angels seek a SP. If they fail in the FA market, Niemann and Davis become attractive in trades

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 9:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Morales

Just read a blurb on MLBTR that the health of his leg won’t be known until after Jan 1st.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

well
#Rays get me #KMorales, #Shoppach, #Sizemore and Play Ball @r_j_anderson @MrNegative1 @jasoncollette
@r_j_anderson i want #KendryMorales—-you? #Rays
#KendryMorales, #CarlosPena, #MagglioOrdonez #GRadySizemore Go #Rays

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

All These 1b rumors

are a ploy by AF to get a better bargaining position to resign Kotch. Papa Joe wants his adopted son back at 1b. We all know how this team is run,what ever Joe wants Joe gets.

by Landlord on Nov 15, 2011 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

I can't see the truth - I have an eyepus issue

He’s going to get 2 yr/$6M from Baltimore.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

why wouldn't tampa

pay 2 years 6 mil for Kotchman?

That would settle the position for 2 years and allow the Rays to put more money elsewhere.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

They've only signed 1 multi-year FA deal for a hitter in team history

and it failed miserably.

Signing a guy coming off an outlier of a season just doesn’t seem to fit the mold. He is going to want a multi-year deal and someone will give it to him, but I have my doubts it will be this organization.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

i'm guessing most would call 2010 his outlier year

especially if you consider his playing time as a regular

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

2010 outlier one way, 2011 outlier the other way

I threw away the stats & talked to scouting types in AZ earlier this month while I was out there. Not a favorable view to be found related to his hitting.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely no relevance

That was me – I’m not a scout but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

i'm not advocating over paying for Kotch, but if the scenario

is where we’re w/o a 1B and he can be had for $6mil/2yrs—yes

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

no, 2011 was not an outlier.

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Nov 15, 2011 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Didn't the Rays give Shoppach a multi year deal?

Also eventually Pena got one too—your case is w/o merit

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Pena's multi-year was a redo of his existing contract while he was still under contract

Shoppach’s deal was traded for & then re-done to avoid arbitration.

Your case is w/o fact

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Kotchman isn't impending...he is a free agent

They have no control over him thus the leverage is a bit different. With Shoppach, they can tell him he’s going to lose the arbitration case because the team has nailed every arb hearing they’ve done so they offer the money over 2 years rather than 1.

Kotchman had that window of opportunity with the Rays after the season and nothing was done in that 5-day window.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes.

Let us sign Andy Sonnanstine for catcher. That will fill up the catcher void.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

stay on topic

I was disappointed to see your 5 week run of no bans/warns be ended by BucsNation. What on Earth did you tell them over the weekend?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Stay "on topic"

when i remind a poster, be sure to have my back

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 15, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Sure...easier to do when you're not being hypocritical

Snipes & insults don’t further the discussion

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

rec'd

I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.

by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

by pudieron89 on Nov 15, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Let me put it this way.

You don’t sign a player just to fill a posistion. You sign the plaer because you have to believe that they will provide value.

by mr. maniac on Nov 15, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

via Joel Sherman, Type B compensation is likely gone

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/baseball_new_labor_deal_to_eliminate_RGGAs4SBkXxcos8nyAPt1I

A Mets official, for example, told The Post the club had contacted about 10 relievers and told the representatives for those who are Type-A that they were only interested if their old team did not offer arbitration because "there is no way we are losing a draft pick." Besides Dotel and Saito, the Mets have interest in Matt Capps, who falls into the Type-A designation.

Two officials briefed on the talks said there might be some tinkering done to help create a market for players at the bottom of the Type-A designation such as, say, Dotel. What could be done, for example, is that the signing team does not lose a draft pick, but the club that loses the player is awarded at least a sandwich pick.

However, both officials said they expect compensation for Type-B free agents will be eliminated this offseason. That compensation has been a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, but no lost pick for the signing team. Players who fall into the Type-B category this offseason include Aramis Ramirez, Jason Kubel and Frank Francisco, another reliever for whom the Mets have interest.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

He, Theo, Friedman...

Those that tended to take guys knowing Type B comp picks were going to fall their way.

If this were the case in 2010, Crawford could have been dealt.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I mean for the 2011-12 off-season

Didn’t he acquire a bunch of Type-B guys.

Rays were lucky to dump everyone last year.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Nov 15, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Yep

Looks like some of the higher Type A’s will still bring comp but these garbage relievers (Capps this year, Juan Cruz 2 yrs ago) that were stuck in limbo because teams wouldn’t give up a pick for them are now freed.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

what is good

is eliminating Type B compensation will add value to teams 2nd round picks.

One change I wanted was to push Compensation picks either between 2nd and 3rd rounds or after the 15 protected teams in the first round draft in the second round.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 15, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

That would be nice

Making these comp picks late 1st rounders is crazy.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd love to get Votto but I'm suessing it is more part of trade negotiations.

I still think if the Reds want Shields they will get them but it is more likely that Mesoraco/Alonso is the package the Rays get instead of Votto.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 15, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions  

Votto is just a dream or another steal by the Jays

But I did want to point out that the Reds actually want Price, not Shields so all this Shields talk was kinda worthless. I’m not trading any of the big 4 either. If we can get Alonso for Neimann, hell yeah, if we can get Alonso for Davis…whatever with that front 4, DJ Kitty can be our #5 for all I care.

Under construction

by joeybw on Nov 15, 2011 12:40 PM EST reply actions  

Speaking of Shields

He finished 3rd behind the non human and Weaver, at least he beat Sabathia. Hey, 2 years in a row a Ray beats CC.

Under construction

by joeybw on Nov 15, 2011 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

CC got robbed.

Verlander should have won, but it should have been close between he and CC this year. Not that it matters much.

by jtmorgan on Nov 15, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

That race was a lot closer than people gave it credit for until the very end

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Can't fight the narative

Where would the Tigers be w/o Verlander? Only 10GA of Cleveland?

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Nov 15, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

narrative

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Nov 15, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

good points by Tom Tango
Verlander and Weaver had the same ERA, but was better in W/L, K and K-BB differential.

Since Shields beat Weaver K and K-BB differential, then Verlander’s victory was based disproportionately on W/L. And since Weaver beat Shields in ERA, then his #2 placement is based disproportionately on ERA.

As for Shields, well, he pitched 12 more innings than CC, and gave up one less earned run. Their K and BB numbers are very similar, while CC gave up much fewer HR and had a way better W/L record. CC did give up a ton more singles (or rather, he was on the mound when a ton more singles were hit).

So, it was Shields’ complete games and lack of singles against CC’s lack of HR and W/L record.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

If Tango could get the ballot breakdown

He’d really be able to use a weighted CYA formula

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Nov 15, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

What's your 2012 rotation?

I really don’t want to see any of the big 4 traded but I guess if they made that trade it would be Price – Hellickson – Davis – Moore – Neimann

I know the rookie always gets the #5 spot but I just don’t think they would have Moore and Price go back to back. Please give me Shields – Price – Hellickson – Moore -Davis/Neimann/Cobb/Torres/Archer…. we got some depth.

Under construction

by joeybw on Nov 15, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

3 yrs $28M for Shields & 2 yr/26.5M for Votto

Money close, but the extra year of control is big & the fact Votto makes $16M next season.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Both are trading from a position of depth too, in a way.

Although in Cinci’s case of course, the MVP void would we harder to fill.

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 15, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a question

Would you rather have:
Shields for Votto
or
Niemann (plus B prospect) for Alonso?

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 15, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Option B

Niemann is a completely replaceable asset. He is an innings eater that gets full by August and still hasn’t pitched more than 179 innings in a season.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 15, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Alonso

I always look at trades like that(just like Garza last year) in a different way and I see it as Neimann for Alonso and Moore and that is a steal. Yes Shields for Votto and Moore is a nice trade also but that messes up by big 4.

Under construction

by joeybw on Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Votto

It’s tough, but that’d be selling high on Shields and acquiring a legitimate MVP bat.

My back-of-the-envelope guess is that Shields 2012 will probably look something like Shields 2007 — that’s a hell of a lot of value, and a fairly significant drop-off to Davis/Niemann/Cobb/Torres/Archer. But I think I’d rather have an 800-run lineup and take my chances on the back end of the rotation than another 700 RS/615 RA season.

And Price/Moore/Hellickson is a pretty awesome playoff rotation.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 15, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

option b

I feel like the team is better with Shields and alonso for the next few years than Votto and Niemann.

by joaker5 on Nov 15, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Shields may be worth Alonso and Grandal

 He will be 30 this month and is owed 28 million over the next three seasons(which actually could end up at 44 million w/incentives). That becomes a lot of money for the Rays, when long term commitments are due Price and maybe others in the near future. While he has been consistent, innings are adding up and coming off his best season, he’s had good but not great seasons, it might be the best time to move him.

But it may be those points that limit a haul like many CY type pitchers have brought back recently(Lee, Hallady, Sabathia) where a team might give up 3 of their top 10 prospects). It does provide the Rays with a 1st baseman for next season and a catcher for the year after (and both with the ever important "under team control for several years)along with freeing up a lot of payroll.

by budman3 on Nov 15, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

This isn't a video game.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Two top prospects and a 4th OFer

who could replace BJ if he’s traded aren’t enough for a Cy Young candidate? Who else could the Reds add?

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 16, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions  

He should be worth Alonso, Grandal, and possibly even Tood Frazier.

There are never enough utility players!

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

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