Is The Rays' Offensive Upgrade This Offseason Having Desmond Jennings For A Full Season?

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 11:45 AM EST

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The Rays scored 707 Runs this regular season which was good enough for 15th in MLB and 8th in AL. This works out to be 4.36 runs/game for the season. Prior to the promotion of Jennings the Rays were 52-46 and scored 407 runs (4.15/GM) and after his promotion the Rays were 39-25 while scoring 300 runs (4.69/GM). After his call up the offense picked up a little over 0.50 run a game and had the best record in the AL East. The Rays will never have the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rangers as they are current constructed. But, this can be made up through their elite defense and best pitching staff in the AL.

The following are the triple slash lines of the Rays roster from July 23, the day Jennings was promoted, until the end of the regular season:

Desmond Jennings .259/.356/.449 (247)
B.J. Upton .260/.360/.474 (215)
Evan Longoria .250/.377/.530 (232)
Ben Zobrist .276/.344/.474 (232)
Matt Joyce .261/.350/.415 (176)
Johnny Damon .231/.326/.412 (221)
Casey Kotchman .276/.358/.378 (225)
Sean Rodriguez .233/.359/.337 (163)
Kelly Shoppach .176/.247/.400 (85)

Reid Brignac .194/.206/.226 (62)
John Jaso .227/.292/.394 (66)
Brandon Guyer .200/.222/.314 (35)
Sam Fuld .213/.362/.298 (47)
Elliot Johnson .184/.225/.342 (38)

None of these numbers appear to not be able to be replicated by the group. In fact, some numbers look lower than one could project for next season. This roster would be on pace to score 760 runs over a 162 game season based upon their 4.69 runs a game they scored to finish the season. This is a smaller sample than a full season, but still 40% of a full season and would be a 50 run increase on the season. Damon, Kotchman, and Shoppach would have to be re-signed or replaced on this roster. The 760 runs would rank 6th in MLB and 5th in the AL.

The answers are there and it isn't all on the Jennings, but also the move of Zobrist to full-time 2B. This allows for only 2 weak bats at the bottom of the lineup instead of the routing 9 outs a game it seems the team would always give away at the bottom of the order. The bench is where the biggest improvements could probably be made with a minor move or 2.

This isn't to say the Rays shouldn't be looking to improve their offense this offseason, but the offense isn't as bad as it would appear and should only require minor tweaks to become a good offense. Keeping the elite run prevention and rotation this offseason would field a team that could be the best ever for the Rays and have their best chance to win the World Series. This leaves a little room to make some moves assuming a $55MM payroll and they could afford to keep their pitching and Upton around for a big run.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

Finally an article that makes sense

I would not say the rays revolve around Jennings, his swing has been exposed. He will have to adjust if he wants to have a good sophmore year.
The stat boys want a batting order with 8-9-1 of Canzler, Brignac, and Jennings. This should be avoided.This would be a curveball K of Canzler, an uppercut swing K of Brignac, and high heat K of Jennings. 3 K your scorecard and turn the page.
Keep Kotch,Shop,and S-Rod in the batting order 7-8-9 and the Rays have a very good team.DO NOT try to fix something that is not broken.

by Landlord on Nov 16, 2011 9:03 AM EST reply actions

Our lineup sure isn't broken, it just isn't good enough to go deep into the playoffs.

I’d be happy with Shop and Sean Rod, but I really hope we find an upgrade at either 1B or DH. I wouldn’t mind Kotch for cheap, but we need an upgrade somewhere

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 9:17 AM EST up reply actions

There is no reason the offense wouldn't be good enough to go deep in the playoffs.

As long as you make it in the playoffs a few more runs shouldn’t make enough of a difference in the playoffs. It’s all about getting hot at the right time and having the key hit when it matters.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

An upgrade at 1B or DH is very possible as either stat lines are that great.

A .730 OPS DH and a .740 OPS 1B aren’t exactly great numbers. A trade to upgrade one of those positions is very obtainable while only trading a package around a Niemann/Davis/Cobb piece.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

are not that great

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

All this trade speculation on DRB

While over on THE HEATER ,AF is quoted as saying he will not get rid of his pitching depth and he is optimistic about resigning Damon and Kotch.
Great reporting by Mark, as usuall

by Landlord on Nov 16, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Dateline: December 18th, 2010

Rays – still – not looking to deal a starter
With Cliff Lee making the unexpected decision to return to Philadelphia, Carl Pavano the next best option on the free agent market and Zack Grienke reportedly accelerating a trade from Kansas City, the Rays are going to get even more calls on their starting pitchers.

The Cubs and Rangers have reportedly been inquiring heavily on Matt Garza (who could be headed toward $6-million in salary through arbitration) along with the Brewers, and there was some talk about James Shields from the Rockies, and it’s safe to assume there are also teams asking about Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and – if they are really trying to get creative, or are really bored – the presumably untouchable David Price.

But despite having six potentially strong starters and some glaring holes elsewhere, Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman isn’t changing his stance on not looking to deal from that area of depth
.

You ever get the feeling that Friedman just has these quotes ready for these media chats each season?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Our lineup is 92183109283019283 times better than the 2010 giants lineup and they made it deep

by benderbrodriguez on Nov 16, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

As I said, it isn't all on Jennings.

It also is around having a healthy Longoria and Zobrist moving to 2B also. Jennings will have to make adjustments and I have no reason to believe he won’t, and a .260/.350/.450 is a very reasonable slash line for him to obtain. He won’t be as good as was his first month up, but he also won’t be as bad as his September.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

Via MLBTR

The Rockies continue to search for starting pitching via trade, having met with a few teams already. They probably won’t match the asking prices for John Danks or Wandy Rodriguez, but they could target arms such as Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis, if the Marlins and Rays are willing to deal.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 9:23 AM EST reply actions

Chris Iannetta would be a nice upgrade, and very affordable.

The only small problem is that, if traded before the 2013 season (Cot’s), Iannetta may void 2013 5M club option. Of course, that probably depends on how he plays and how he likes Tampa. What do you guys think?

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 9:27 AM EST up reply actions

His splits are very bad.

by mr. maniac on Nov 16, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

Ianetta's home/road splits scare me.

He could be a product of Coor’s Field.

Career Home – .262/.377/.492 over 863 PA, 122 wRC+
Career Away – .208/.338/.369 over 870 PA, 81 wRC+

He walks alot still away, but outside of that most of his extra bases appear to disappear.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

wRC+ takes in to account park.

by rglass44 on Nov 16, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

Correct.

Just look like it’s quite possible those splits are a product of being in Denver. I’d just be very cautious instead of expecting numbers that could be inflated by his home park which he won’t have here.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

the last 3 years the Rays' catchers have produced a wRC+ of 78.

As horrid as Ianetta’s road splits have been he’s still managed to out-pace our bums.

by rglass44 on Nov 16, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

Ya, I am not against him pending the cost.

Just between that fact and he could only have 1 year of control. All will depend what Colorado would want for him, and what else could be available.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

The contract is my biggest sticking point. I can't belive he's already a 3rd year Arb guy.

by rglass44 on Nov 16, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

In the Rays situation right now I think if they make a trade it needs to have at least 2 years of control.

There isn’t a position that would cause a well regarded prospect to be blocked if they picked up somebody for 2 years with the possible exception being SS. With the Rays trade chips I’d much rather see them try to land a Sanchez/Duda/Morrison/Alonso to shore up 1B for the forseeable future.

The Ray’s catching situation isn’t good, but around the league it isn’t much better outside of the few standouts. With the attrition rate of heath problems with catchers I’d rather use trade chips to shore up other areas and just make do with what’s available on the scrap heap and the farm.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

his road BABIP borders on insanity

2007 – .319
2008 – .349

then…..

2009 – .173
2010 – .208
2011 – .219

How can someone do that bad year after year?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

That's only around 500 plate appearances though.

Random variation could account for that.

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 16, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

Really odd trend going there though

2 straight years followed by 3 awful ones. It could snap back at any time; it certainly can’t get any worse.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

I checked out his page StatCorner page a few days ago

His plate discipline rates and batted ball profile compare favorably to Mike Napoli, except the HR frequency, which is not a minor thing of course. I feel he’s got a chance to have a really good season.

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 16, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Ahhhh, I see.

Could that scare away othe rteams though?

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

free agent catching isn't terribly deep

You take what you can get and Iannetta’s upsdie & defense will attract someone.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, ecspecially when we have pitching to spare

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

The Rays have pitching to spare, but they have to make sure they get the best return they can for any pieces they move.

They can’t afford to just give their depth away. They can only really move 1 of Niemann/Davis/Cobb unless they think they can keep Shields and Price for the next couple years.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

Oh I totally agree. I know pitching and defense is what makes the team.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Looking at that,

I’d love a Niemann plus maybe a low level spec for Tim Wheeler. Guys got a great power/speed combo, and will be ML-ready by as soon as 2012. I’m not opposed to giving up a pitcher like Colome or Lara with Niemann or Davis for that.

by TBRaysfan009 on Nov 16, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Not only will the Rayve Jennings a full season but hopefully Longoria

not missing the first month, wasting a month of Brignac and his non existent offens, and the DanJo experiment at 1B that went horribly wrong. Throw in the Manny fiasco and this should not be the rebuild of an offense some have suggested

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 16, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions

I'm sure mistakes will be made next year that can't be predicted now as well.

I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.

by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

by pudieron89 on Nov 16, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

only if we let kotch walk

by rglass44 on Nov 16, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

+1

It’ll be interesting to see what screw ups we make next year in terms of plate appearance portioning. I’m not too high on Brandon Guyer personally buttttt I know I’m in the minority there.

by benderbrodriguez on Nov 16, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather see Guyer than Ruggiano or EJ

Which is where our bench was last year.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Nov 16, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

Our bench was f'n shallow this season

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

This.

The 2011 bench took a big hit when Brignac fell on his face and SRod was forced into the everyday SS role. Also limited the flexibility of the bench. Right now I feel an optimal bench would be something like 2nd catcher, Guyer, Canzler, and a utility infielder/SS where SRod goes back to this role.

I don’t have faith in Brignac turning things around because of his swing and walk rate being so low. For Brignac to have any value on the team he’d have to be able to produce a .260/.310/.390 line. I hope he could turn it around, but I’m not very optimistic.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions

Manny was 19 at bats. That's pissing into the ocean

Without Manny’s debacle, Kotchman is probably delayed in his promotion

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

We need....

I like the numbers you’re showing here, and especially like what they’d look like if Longo put up better numbers than he did last year – which certainly seems possible, even expected.

Those numbers make it a fun year again, we should certainly be right there in Sept again…but….we need one more bat with some power. 1B/DH/(half of RF) – come on, these have to be the easiest positions in baseball to find someone that can hit with some power. i like what both Damon & Kotch brought to the team last year – but we need someone that can hit it out of the park instead of just Longo. I’m not counting on that being either BJ or Zobrist.

And if we don’t do it now, take a flyer on someone (never know when you find the next Carlos Pena), and keep looking in April, May, June, July. Seems quite possible we don’t have this extra pitcher until however many minor league days tick away that they’re inclined to bring Moore back up. He’s the only new one that HAS to be in the rotation most of next year. Cobb just could be.

by TallMatt on Nov 16, 2011 3:28 PM EST reply actions

While more power would be nice from those positions it isn't completely necessary.

Some extra power would be nice, but the Rays were tied for 9th in MLB in HRs. Especially considering the home stadium it isn’t that bad. It just appears worse because they are behind all the AL East teams.

RF is not a problem. The Rays already have 5 outfielders that could potentially be on the roster. A Jennings, Upton, Joyce outfield is a pretty good outfield offensively and defensively. Power costs too much on the open market compared to other offensive categories that still produce runs.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

Platoon partner for Joyce?

If the Rays want a platoon partner for Joyce, there is a power hitting free agent available who would probably sign cheap. He’s 30 years old and has hit .282/.349/.563 against lefties in 759 plate appearances. As a bonus, his line as a pinch hitter is .301/.397/.520.

Cody Ross. (Stop laughing. He could prosper in a strict platoon.) Guyer is more likely to do the job, but if he’s in left …

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."

by ThreeRunHomer on Nov 16, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

How about Chris Denorfia?

Plus defender. Has hit .313/.387/.442 vs LHP over the past two seasons and has hit .305/.377/.423 against them in 347 career plate appearances.

Ross’s OPS vs LHP has been in a 3 year freefall from .959 to .698 and is not the same type of defender Denorfia is.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

He'd be nice but he's not a free agent.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."

by ThreeRunHomer on Nov 19, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

While more power would be nice from those positions it isn't completely necessary.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 5:28 PM EST reply actions

I fail at replying.

by jtmorgan on Nov 16, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

But your replies are high quality so it's okay

by benderbrodriguez on Nov 16, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

Yep

he’s been adding some great stuff to the conversation of late

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 16, 2011 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah.

Comments have been much better since the end of the OTTOTD threads.

by mr. maniac on Nov 16, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

Have to disagree for a number of reasons

- Fewer well informed commenters
- Less productive conversations and debates
- Reduced quantity and quality of fanposts
- More SF1 and Landlord
- Very little educated rebuttals to Cason, just a lot of butt-slapping

by ShawnTSA on Nov 17, 2011 2:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

To clarify

This was not at all meant as an indictment of jt, it is directly a response to the ottotd comment. I’m bemoaning the loss of a number of great posters and contributors that offered differing opinions and alternate ways of looking at things.

by ShawnTSA on Nov 17, 2011 2:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

A point

Most of those guys, by their own choice, weren’t in these threads that often for their own reasons. All great guys, but it wasn’t serving us well to have two separate conversations about baseball going on here – the ones here and the ones in there bemoaning what was being said in here. We hope that they’ll cool off and come back when the season gets into gear but if they don’t, best of luck to them as they continue to grow ottotd.com.

Everyone brings value to the conversation – some more than others. All views are respected, but they will be challenged by those in disagreement.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

I would disagree with this. Sure, SK is gone, but not to many of the other guys, during the time I was here, posted much about basedball besides listing 69 and 420.

I would also disagree with your next point. Some of hte conversations have been much more productive. Let me put it this way. A few of the posters that have left would personally insult you mid-way through a debate. That isn’t my idea of a productive debate.

In all honesty, there haven’t been too many good fanposts in a while. I don’t think it had anything to do with them leaving.

I have seen less of Landlord recently, but more of sternfan.

I disagree.

I think alot of the issues you are pointing out are due to another variable: the baseball season. Since the season is over, there is less to talk about and posters post less often. It happened that the two events coincided, but I think that the baseball season had a much larger effect.

Question: What knowledgable posters left? (Or ones that contributed somewhere outside of that horrid thread?)

by mr. maniac on Nov 17, 2011 9:30 AM EST up reply actions

Speaking of the butt-slapping . . . but that's beside the point

If I recall last off-season correctly – and I lack FZ’s skills and/or time to verify – there were multiple weekly quality saber posts, either Front Page or Fanposts. Now we get a few links dumped on us every day and that’s about it. I can find that crap at RI. I used to come here because it offered a LOT more, not so much now, at least in my opinion.

And to answer your question on who is missed, in no particular order -
Off the cuff on posters – SK, TGN1, warde
And on commenters we see way less frequently now – kericr, sveet, suttree, vin, gilliss, sarah thomas, srq, dobber, deadeye, hatfield, fmg, wtbudlight . . . including the ones above

I’m sure I’ve forgotten quite a few people, plus there those who stopped by more frequently due to those threads and the conversation within. I’ll agree there was often some outlandish (to put it cleanly and mildly) stuff in there and reining them in a bit needed to be done. However, it could have been handled differently and losing those contributors is a disservice to this site and it’s readers. Again, just my feelings on the matter.

by ShawnTSA on Nov 17, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

I've been following this site for roughly a little over a year

And since the OTTOTD has gone, I also feel like this site has gone downhill. I never even read the OTTOTD. I may have posted in 2 of them, total. But since it’s been gone, I’ve been posting on here more often than previously (outside of GDTs) just to get some good baseball discussion, whereas earlier I could get my fix just by reading the comments sections in most articles. I’m also frantically bouncing back and forth on other sites, particularly PA, just to read opinions about baseball news. I don’t understand how removing the OTTOTD and subsequently a bunch of regular posters who have thoughts and contribute to conversation, whether or not they were rough around the edges at times, makes this site better. Maybe it just hasn’t been long enough, but aside from jtmorgan, I’m not seeing a bunch of opinions or commentary from a whole lot of new posters who were afraid to post before lest they be viciously attacked by the OTTOTD mob. Waiting for goodness to happen.

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Nov 19, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions