Could The Tampa Bay Rays Get Starlin Castro?
by BWoodrum on Nov 16, 2011 1:40 PM EST
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PrintOr, better question, should they be willing to pay the price?
Word has surfaced that the Chicago Cubs have left every piece on the table -- which means 21-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro is available. Oh, the Cubs are hurting for pitching depth, you say?
Okay, slow your role, as the poet Deion Sanders once said in a terrible commercial. First: Do we actually want Castro?
Do the Rays Want/Need Castro?
The Tampa Bay Rays -- as we well know -- did not do great last year in the whole shortstop arena. Not only did Reid Brignac bring a whole heaping of regret soup, Sean Rodriguez failed to translate his minor league power numbers into major league awesome and looked better defensively at second. So in 2011, the Rays' shortstop stew was two parts Brignac regret, two parts out-of-place Rodriguez, and one part Elliot Johnson.
But that does not mean the Rays lack options for the future? No. In fact, Tim Beckham and Hak-Ju Lee are easing up through the system. Beckham may not be the greatest first round pick in the franchise's history, but he should make a starting-quality shortstop and could even fight for some playing time in 2012.
So, the Rays are not without options -- and Castro is not without faults. Last year, Starlin nearly cost the Cubs a whole win (about 0.8 WAR) from his defensive gaffs alone. Personally, having watched Starlin play quite a lot, I believe his problems will fade with time. Most of his struggles come from errors, not a lack of range or athleticism -- which is not unlike B.J. Upton (which is not a good sign), but also not unlike Alexei Ramirez (which is a great sign) when he first moved to short from second.
Even if his defense does not come around, Castro was still worth 3.4 WAR in 2011 and is projected only to improve offensively as times goes. So, at least, I imagine Starlin makes a 4.0 win shortstop. That begs us ask:
How Much Will Castro Cost?
Using Sky Kalkman's trade calculator, we can make a decent guess at what Castro might cost at most to acquire. Depending on how you project his following years, his value obviously differs greatly. For argument's sake, let's say Castro blossoms into a 7.0 WAR player as soon as 2014, following this pattern:
| Year | Sal (M) | WAR | Val (M) | Net (M) |
| 2012 | $0.4 | 5.0 | $22.9 | $22.5 |
| 2013 | $8.6 | 6.0 | $27.4 | $18.8 |
| 2014 | $14.9 | 7.0 | $31.9 | $17.0 |
| 2015 | $19.9 | 7.0 | $31.9 | $12.0 |
| 2016 | $24.9 | 7.0 | $31.9 | $7.0 |
NOTE: I've tweaked the WAR/$ values (seen here in the Sal (M) column) to reflect some unpublished research from Matt Swartz suggesting -- among a bunch of things -- second basemen and shortstops actually get paid about $3.5M per win, not the league average $4.5M used in Sky's regular calculations. This adds to Castro's trade price tag, but also makes him more affordable on the Rays payroll. Altogether, it should be wash, though.
Ultimately, this Awesome Castro scenario comes to a trade value of $82.3M. Of course, by the end of his time with the Rays, Castro would theoretically be earning close to $25M -- if he earned a fourth year of arbitration and gets his FA-equivalent salary (NOTE: only two position players have been worth 21 WAR over the last three years -- Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria).
Remember, this is an ultra-optimistic projection for Castro. If this becomes the case for Castro, the Rays will happily swap him for some nasty-awesome prospects following the 2014 season and make Hak-Ju Lee or someone cheaper their everyday man.
Does that mean Castro will cost the Rays Matt Moore?
No. Moore, assuming he plateaus at 5.0 WAR (think: Jered Weaver good) and stays healthy, he would still be worth a cool half-million more than Starlin because the Cubs have already burned two years of team control on Castro.
So here's my proposal: Alex Cobb (worth $55.4M in Trade Bucks) plus a mid-level prospect (someone worth $27M or so) for Starlin Castro. Look, I like Alex Cobb as much or more than the next fellow, oh, so maybe that makes me biased? Well, anyway, if Alex plateaus at 3.0 WAR (think: a little less than Ryan-Dempster-good), he will be about $27M short of Starlin's value.
So:
Alex Cobb ($55.4M) + low level pitching prospect ($27M) = Starlin Castro ($82.5M)
Who is this mythical $27M prospect? I don't know. Ian or the guys at Rays Prospects would be better equipped to answer that. The truth is, he may not have to be that good. Sky's calculator suggests it would need to be someone worth 7.1 WAR with no time on his MLB service clock.
So, maybe Marquis Fleming? I don't know. Even that might be way too much.
What do you say DRBers? Should the Rays pursue Starlin Castro? As I am wont to do, I have added poll, but if your opinion is not therein-featured, please sound off in the comments below. Am I crazy? Of course I'm not, but go ahead try to convince me I am anyway.
GIFT: Here's a copy of my spreadsheet for this post.
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"slow your role" hmm..
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Rolls are for dinner.
Roles are for ultimate entertainers like M. Sanders.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
"Castro was still worth 3.4 WAR in 2012"
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Muscle memory on that one.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I like the prospect of getting Castro, would just be incredibly fun to watch and much more palatable than our last year's platoon.
And for the price you suggest would be more than sensible, given our pitching surplus now and in the minors.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not very interested in him
His contact skills are great but nothing else really blows me away. Not many people think he can stay as SS and if he can’t he isn’t worth much to us. 35 walks in 715 PAs is really concerning and he’ll have to keep BABIPing .340 to be worthwhile and I don’t think that’s a sure thing.
by sattp on Nov 16, 2011 1:56 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think the proposed deals may have been possible under Hendry, but Cobb + Fleming won't cut it with Theo
Fleming is missing a major test in Triple-A to see if his stuff holds up there. He has a terrific change-up (70/80?) but his fastball is average. He’ll make the majors, but his command will be everything and his peak value would be medium-leverage work.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
This is my general thought too.
My guess is we’d have to give up a bit more than that, and I’d gladly do the above trade if that was what it took to get it done.
Castro is awesome…he’d be great to have at short next season and beyond. But at the same time, I’d be okay if the Rays didn’t do anything to upgrade SS going into next season. I think S-Rod will be able to hold down the position fine for one year, and he may actually surprise us. And after next year, we should start to see Beckham and Lee reach the majors, so we’ll be in an even better position then.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 16, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
With Lee and Beckham potentially a few years away (and Lee being a few months younger than Castro),
I don’t think the Rays should offer too much more than Cobb + Fleming, but yeah, I doubt that trade gets it done.
Still, as I noted below, the Cubs won’t be in contention for a few years, and by the time Castro is a free agent, they could quite possibly just re-acquire him — except now with more pitchers in the system.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Cubs
They have more than enough money to lock up Castro. By the time Castro hits FA, all garbages, Soriano, Zambrano, and et ceteras, will be gone. And Castro would be still in his prime, 27, no way Cubs giving up talent like him. His power is still developing , this dude is just 21 yrs old but already belted with 346 hits in big league. He may hit 3000+ by the time he retires and become HOFer. No way they would trade him and no way for Cobb + Fleming.
Actually, I felt the opposite. Hendry probably would have left Castro off-limits
because he was convinced the Cubs were going to be competitive every year — even after the pitching depth starting featuring failed Quad-A guys.
Still, I actually agree that Cobb / Fleming wouldn’t be enough. The numbers suggest they might be — especially if you consider that the Cubs could potentially just re-acquire Castro in 2015 or 2016 (when they’re in contention again).
But still, Castro is super young and already good. Maybe Cobb + Fleming + two more low level starting prospects? I dunno it sounds closer.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I want Castro for sure and I think it would take a lot more than Cobb and Fleming
They finally have a brain in that front office with Theo.
Under construction
Wait a minute
The article says the Cubs will listen on everyone to build on the future. That sounds more like Garza and Marmol types than a 21 year old who already led the NL in hits.
Under construction
Someone on Twitter suggested Price for Castro.
Honestly, given that Price is about to get crazy expensive and does not seem interesting in signing a Shieldsian contract, that may not be the worst of possibilities.
Price, according to Sky’s calculator, would be worth $52M at least, so maybe a young arm (22 yo or younger) seals it?
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
How about we trade Lee back to them
along with Cobb?
A SS who reached AA and a young SP reached the majors might at least make them consider Castro.
Under construction
That may be pretty tempting.
Honestly, if I were the Cubs, I would be looking for quantity over quality.
The pitching depth in the system is largely uninspiring. Why not just cull together as many lotto tickets as possible, and then use the team’s considerable payroll budget to fill the gaps with strong FAs?
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
He's one of those players who I would consider it for
But I want at least a year or 2 of our big 4 which is the same reason that I really hope Moore breaks camp with the team.
Under construction
No way.
The market for starting pitching right now is increidbly different that the calculators seem to be indicating.
Staying in Chiago
We gotta check in on what Sean Marshall would cost us.
Also, the White Sox are having a fire sale also, Carlos Quientin for DH? RF and Joyce to DH?
Under construction
I can't envision a scenario
where the Rays just burn Reid Brignac’s potential value. He’s already Jack Wilson — and Wilson has earned over $40MM in the majors, played 11 seasons, racked up more than 5,200 plate appearances and (along with Ian Snell) brought back five prospects to the Mariners in trade.
I understand he didn’t hit for crap last year. (I think that’s fixable, but this isn’t really the space for that argument.) I understand people are frustrated with him. I am too. But I think it’s not even remotely realistic to think that the Rays are going to turn a potential asset into nothing AND pay a steep price (in prospects) for the privilege of doing so. Not the Rays way.
Where does briggy get fixed?
If he rides the bench next year he wont get enough PAs to work with, but sending him down means beckham would have to move off short?
I too think briggy could be fixed and develop into an average to slightly above option at short, I just don’t see it happening with the rays. He had his shot, now there is a logjam at SS of players that need to prove they are good in more than scouts eyes and the minors. And briggy seems to be low man on the pole.
he's the everyday SS on the Rays in 2012 versus right-handers for at least half the season
IF he doesn’t hit, and IF Beckham destroys AAA, and IF the Rays are in contention (which I think is likely, obviously), then maybe the team gives up on Brignac by the ASB 2012. Not before then.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 16, 2011 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Unrealistic
Never happens in a million years.
I am more into Lucas Duda.
Duda has better ISO, better K%, identical B% comparing to Alonso and he would be relatively cheap. Ken Rosenthal tweeted that Duda would be available this off season and he is blocked by Ike Davis. His OF defense is just horrible. I would be happy to give up Niemann to lure him and give Duda full-time job. He would produce .270 .340 .460 at minimum. I think he may do even better, reaching .280 .360 .500.
Trade for Duda or LoMo, keep Upton, give up average prospect, say, Barnese, for sign and trade Ramon Hernandez, sign Damon or Andrew Jone, add one or two bullpen arms, then I would believe this team will have potential to win the WS. I do not think it is unrealistic and within our price range also.
Can we do an article on getting Stanton and C. Santana next?
We know the rays could get almost anyone with their stable of players, but lets keep the rosterbation at a realistic level.
Starlin Castro looks like a future star, performing at an above average level despite being like 21
There’s absolutely no way we get him with anything less than a massive, massive overpay
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 16, 2011 4:19 PM EST reply actions
I don't see it happening
Castro is one of the few reasons Cub fans have hope.
As a Cubs fan, I will with complete certainty say the ONLY reason I have hope is Theo Epstein.
One great player is nowhere near enough.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I love his hitting ability, but his defense is totally against what the Rays are.
Even then, Alex Cobb is very important to the team, and we run on pitching.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
If the Cubs were willing to trade Castro
and if all it took was Cobb and Fleming, maybe a little bit more, I would jump on it. Castro is very young and still improving, and he has already had 2 good offensive years. Ultimately he might have to move to second, but that can wait till next year when Lee/Beckham is ready. If Cobb and FLeming was not enough, I would try and add Brignac or even Beckham if the Cubs wanted another SS in return and they like either of them. If thats considered overpaying, I dont care, Castro is a star in the making. I highly doubt it happens though. I dont know why CUbs would trade him at all, unless they dont like his makeup. I know there was an incident last year where he was benched for not paying attention in the field.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
Davis or Cobb/Beckham/Reliever for Castro if Cubs actually have him on table
You kidding me, if Rays could get Castro, could you imagine a Jennings/Castro/Longo/Zobrist 1-4 lineup on top of still having a Price/Shields/Helly/Neimann/Cobb or Davis/ Moore in August rotation. Next year is the year to win it all, with the Red Sox obviously down and the Yankees with same pitching and a year older injury plagued lineup. If the Cubs would do that you MF’ING do it. Still have two years of control on Castro and even if we get lose Price, our rotation will still be competitive the years after with Moore/helly/fleming/cobb or davis/shields/ etc. I don’t think the Cubs have him on table, but if you give them a young pitcher who is cheap and Beckham as a SS prospect to replace Castro who is still cheap and a bullpen guy to help out their awful pen from last year to set up Marmol, they would def think hard about it.
Cubs will not value Beckham high
Castro is “younger” than Beckham and he is already all-star caliber SS who lead hits in big show. Beckham showed average or mediocre line on AA/AAA and hitting only .243 even on AFL, which is worst 10 of the league. Still yet early to give up, but his trade value is almost none at this point. No way trade will happen. It could be quantity vs. quality. Either Hellboy or Moore plus B prospect or 4 B- or above prospects would make it sounds realistic. Of course, it will never happen in million years.
Don't use batting average
Please. It’s the most misleading statistic for evaluating a hitter. Even RBIs and home runs are preferable to batting average.
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 16, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Good god
I’m a Cubs fan, and the fact that you believe Alex Cobb and a lower pitching prospect is "fair’ or “acceptable” is straight scary.
Castro is for better or worse 21… under team control for the next 4 seasons and will not even come close to hitting his prime before his team years run out. He’s our franchise player. He’s younger than Moore..
I know the Cubs are putting all players on the table but there’s no way Theo comes in and trades the franchise SS for Alex Cobb and a lower pitching prospect. I would think that Theo who does want pitching depth might ask for someone in the rotation and the Rays do have a depth of SP’s. It might not even be Matt Moore… but it’ll be interesting to see what Theo decides to do…
Yea, Cobb + prospect, even if the WAR add up, won't happen in the real world.
If the Cubs want pitching, I’m pretty sure the Braves will be more than willing to trade one or 2 of Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 16, 2011 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
A lot of us find it fairly ridiculous too for what it's worth
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 16, 2011 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I wish we (or more specifically, the site) would strt venturing away from these WAR values to create trades.
The market sets the prices for trades, not WAR. No way Cobb and Fleming gets you Castro and no way Morrison gets you more than Shields.
This. There are many variables that determine the value of a player in trade.
To try to quantify it into a simple number is not reasonable. Surplus value as they calculated it is just that value added to the base cost of acquiring the asset.
There are 3 things that determine the majority of value of a player up for trade. The players value compared to other available options at the position, the amount of interest in the acquiring the player, and the contract situation.
The contract situation is the easiest to quantify and WAR values do a decent job at determing this surplus value, but it still doesn’t account for the base cost of obtaining the player. If a player has a market value contract appropriate for his production there is still a cost to obtain the asset. Trading for a player that has to the potential of being an All-Star level player has some value beyond just straight production values, but also comes with a discount to account for the risk of not reaching that level.
Different teams are in different positions financially and having movable assets that makes them view things differently. In the Rays situation the biggest factor they must consider is the contract situation and whether they can afford it in their plans before they look at obtaining a player. So for them the surplus value for players they receive is of utmost importance.
Also just because a Cobb and Flemming for Castro could potentially make sense from a Surplus value perspective there are these other factors that would lead to having the Cubs valueing Castro more than that proposed package. Shortstop is just as high demand position around the league right now as pitching if not more so. There also is a problem with trading the WAR value of 1 roster spot versus 2 roster spots to obtain the same WAR. Because of this players value scale in a non linear function specifically in trades. A 5 WAR player is more valuable than having 2 2.5 WAR players just for the simple fact that the supply of 2.5 WAR players are much larger than All-Star level players.
Sorry for going long and thanks to those who took the time to read through my rambling.
thank you for saying this
you can use a WAR calculator to evaluate a trade, but no one makes deals like this.
If the Cubs were to trade Starlin Castro for Cobb and a prospect, Theo Epstein would be crucified.
Similarly, if the Rays were to trade David Price AND a prospect for Starlin Castro (as also suggested on this thread), Andrew Friedman would be lynched, tarred, feathered, and shooed back to NY with an industrial strength electric cattle prod.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 17, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
To get Castro, I suspect we'd need to offer a flashier name than Cobb as the centerpiece
If Cobb really does continue to pitch in the majors like he did this season, then it’s not as crazy as it seems, but it’s not like he’s someone who had a reputation of being a top prospect. Hell, I wouldn’t be shocked to find out that Epstein would prefer someone like McGee, and that might actually be a better deal for us.
Plus, we could always help even out a deal with guys like Josh Vitters or Welington Castillo.
Maybe a package like Cobb/Colome/Sale would do it. We’d be trading from areas of strength to fill a weakness. Maybe we “lose” the trade by pure prospective numbers, but when one of those guys gets pushed to the bullpen or injured, all of that flies out the window anyway. Plus, they’d immediately have 2 of their top 5 prospects plus a high upside dice roll.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I agree 100%
Castro is 21 years old. He knows how to hit, he will learn how to get a better eye for walks, ect.
It would take a package exactly like you said to make that deal. Two potential MLB starters plus a very talented young bat.
Sam Bradford
Is it right to give up on Sean Rod?
Adding Castro would be a great addition to the core of this team, no doubt. But at what cost? I believe it would take a major piece like Moore, Helli, or Lee. With Castro’s cheapest years behind him (only one more year before arb), The team may be better off keeping their high upside pieces and Sean-Rod.
After looking deeper into Sean’s Season, the improvement he made is encouraging. Overall, he increased his BB% by 2.9% and decreased his K% 5.7% ( vL, vR pitchers from 10-11, respectively: 136 to 167 PAs; 242 to 269 PAs ). In addition, according to his splits from 2010-2010, against righys he increased his BB/K to 0.3 from 0.12. However, his BABIP dropped .40 points to a career low .240.
According to UZR data he showed positive marks for range and double plays, but negative marks for runs allowed by errors. I believe and hope that those errors could be cut down by playing SS more (i.e. like Alexi Rameriez did during his transition from 2b to SS)
I think Sean-Rod deserves another shot at SS due to his improvements. Last year he was a 2.3 fWAR player, and I think with his improved pitch selection skills and some more luck, he could increase his value.
Note: small sample sizes may come into context since splits and only 60 games of SS data were used, but i believe the talent is there and hope the improvement is real.
This is one of the dumbest articles that has made the front page in a while.
Why would the cubs trade one of their best prospects for an average pitcher? In what syphilis addled brain does this make sense?
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Replace cobb with matt moore and you might be closer to the real asking price.
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by putupyourDUKES on Nov 17, 2011 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
MIGHT being the key word.
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by putupyourDUKES on Nov 17, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
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