Rays Community Prospect #3
by mr. maniac on Nov 16, 2011 2:55 PM EST
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With 100% of the vote, Hak-Ju Lee is voted the #2 prospect.
1. Matt Moore (100%)
2. Hak-Ju Lee (100%)
Candidates: Chris Archer, Alex Colome, Alex Torres, Taylor Guerrieri, Enny Romero, Mikie Mahtook, Tim Beckham, Drew Vettleson, and Brandon Guyer.
Chris Archer: With a superb slider and fastball combo, Archer has very good stuff. However, his changeup lags behind and his command has been very poor. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=archer001chr)
Alex Colome: Colome has a plus fastball and a developing curve and changeup. His command still needs some work. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=colome001ale)
Alex Torres: Torres has electric stuff, with a good fastball, curve, and an excellent changeup. His delivery, while clean, is a bit high effort. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=torres002ale)
Taylor Guerrieri: The Rays first pick in the 2011 draft out of high school, Guerrieri has a good fastball/curveball mix. He has no pro experience.
Enny Romero: Romero has a good fastball, a potentially plus curve, and a developing changeup.(http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=romero001enn)
Mikie Mahtook: Mahtook was a first round pick in the 2011 draft. He plays in the OF and possesses good all-around tools. He has no pro experience, except some time in the AFL.
Tim Beckham: The first overall pick in the 2008 draft, Beckham is the heat of much debate. Some say he has plenty of tools while others doubt it. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=beckha001tim)
Drew Vettleson: The Ray's second first round pick in 2010, Vettleson put up a strong year in 2011. He is an all around player with solid defense and a good bat. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vettle001dre)
Brandon Guyer: Guyer has hit well despite being a little older for a prospect. He has solid tools across the board and should contribute for the Rays in 2012. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=guyer-001bra)
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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+1
Just because Vettleson is in Rookie Ball still.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
+1
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
+1
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 16, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 16, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah. this is the best part
I just hope I won’t be voting for the same player 4 straight times.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Torres vs. Archer vs. Romero vs. Guerreri vs. Colome
How does everyone have them broken out? The way I see it:
1. Torres- Highest floor, but probably the lowest ceiling. Size mitigates ceiling for me because I have a hard time believing he’ll ever be a consistent, healthy SP. Command/control issues as a near finished product mitigate ceiling as well. Seems like the safest bet, but he also may not ever be more than a back-end starter or RP because of size/command/control. Being a lefty helps too.
2. Archer- Very, very similar to Torres. He’s more projectable, but his control issues are scarier. His 2 plus to plus-plus pitches, athleticism, and size give him a higher ceiling, but he hasn’t matched Torres’ results to thsi point making his floor lower in my mind. Much like Torres he could be destined for the back end of the BP or rotation because of his issues throwing strikes. Power FB/SL from a RHP screams elite RP if he continues to struggle throwing strikes.
3. Romero- Likely more upside than Torres or Archer as he’s young enough to have faith that he could beat contrl issues. Also has elite k-rates and stuff at times that gives him the FOR potential they lack. Being further away from the bigs helps us dream on his ceiling more, but also makes it hard to peg a floor. Being a lefty helps.
4. Guerreri- Elite scouting reports give you the ability to dream on ace potential, but lack of resume makes his floor essentially the ground. He could have the highest ceiling of the bunch.
5. Colome- To me, he’s a worse version of Archer. The scouting reports aren’t quite as good, he’s had about the same struggles/results, and he’s a level lower. His floor is likely the third highest, but his ceiling is probably the lowest. I just don’t think he’ll ever figure it out, but that’s totally from the gut and probably Jesus’s fault.
Ranking (floor) highest to lowest:
1. Torres
2. Archer
3. Colome
4. Romero
5. Gurreri
Ceiling:
1. Gurreri
2. Romero
3. Archer
4. Torres
5. Colome
Combined (??):
1. Torres
2. Romero
3. Guerreri
4. Archer
5. Colome
I think Torres is clearly my top pitching prospect (non-Moore division) because I see his floor as being that much higher and his ceiling isn’t taht much lower. The next 3 are close. I can’t figure out how to rate Archer’s ceiling/floor vs. Romero especially. Guerreri is SNTS and has incredible reports. Colome’s pretty clearly the worst of the 5 to me.
I'm not smart enough for ceilings and floors, and this is only from what I've heard.
Without much thought:
Torres
Archer
Romero
Guerreri
Colome
Same as yours, huh?
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
I see them a little differently.
1. Torres, imo, has an incredibly high ceiling, but one I doubt he will ever reach. His stuff is really electric, and I have no health concerns. His command is an issue though, and a pretty big issue. If he doesn’t straighten it up, I see him as a 4/5 or a good reliever. If his command gets some better 3.5 BB/9, then I think he will be a 2/3 starter.
2. Archer is an interesting one. His two pitches are really elite. For some reason, I sometimes think of him as a bit like Pineda when it comes to his first two pitches. I’m not sure the lack of a third pitch is such an issue as some make it out to be. THe command though is a step down from Torres, when is bad. That is why I like Torres a little more. At this point, with his command, he is a 5 starter or a above average reliever.
3. Romero is the top one for me. His FIP was much better than his ERA this past year, and he showed improvement as the seaosn went along. He could take a Matt Moore-like route or he could take a Colome route. Potential of a #1, but the floor of never making MLB.
4. Guerrieri is very similar to Romero for me. Same rating and similar circumstances.
5. Colome is a strange one. I haven’t really heard enough about him to get a feel for his stuff, so I could be underrating him. I’m going to assume his curve and changeup haven’t made strides, which would give him the lowest ceiling.
Floor:
1. Torres
2. Colome
3. Archer
T4. Romero
T4. Guerrieri
Ceiling:
T1: Romero
T1: Guerrieri
T1: Torres
T1: Archer
5. Colome
Total:
T1: Romero
T1: Guerrieri
3. Torres (a hair behind the top 2)
4. Archer
5. Colome (just behind Archer)
What is his floor?
Not many 5 BB/9 guys suceed at the MLB level.
And the difference is extremely minimal, just my preference (slightly so) for ceiling.
he's on Youtube...
from KG earlier this month:
Alex Colome, RHP, Rays
Colome has one of the best pure arms in the Rays system, and he reached Double-A at the end of the 2011 season while allowing just 119 hits over 157.2 innings. That’s a good workload for a 22-year-old minor league, so he’s spending the off-season in a relief role for Escogido in his native Domincan Republic. His uncle Jesus was a reliever for the Rays, and Alex might follow in his footsteps, so this is a good opportunity to watch him in what might be his future role, as between his delivery and shallow arsenal, he might not be starting forever. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball and plus power breaking, he’s struck out nine over six and one-third innings for the Leones, and picked up his first save on Saturday in what could be a preview of his future role.
COlome, Archer, THompson, Torres, Markel, Ames
Man the Rays have a lot of starters that some say may end up becoming relievers.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 16, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
That is part of the fun in making the lists.
The one I made was more focused on upside. I could rearrange it some to make it more focused on the floor.
Romero
He has similar stuff to Torres, similar K and BB ratings, but a more projectable body, and more developmental time to shore up his control. Also had a good walk rate in 2010 with Princeton so he’s shown he can do it.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 16, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
"more developmental time" also means more time for things to go wrong.
but agreed. i really waffle between all 4 but colome at the 2 spot.
That is some serious upside the Rays have when it comes to pitching.
OT: rglass, don’t you think it is stupid that a guy like Archie Bradley was given only half a grade down from Strausburg and Moore. Crazy stuff. And the same grade for Bauer?
Yup, I meant to mention in my post that Romero's floor is obviously lower than Torres given that Torres is going to bring MLB value in 2012
That said, Enny Romero can be Matt Moore-lite
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 16, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
I hope so. That would be HUYUGE.
He and Guerreri are about the only FOR arms in the system right now. If one (or god help me, both) turn in to that it will go a long way in keeping this team in the playoffs year-in and year-out with out worrying too much about finances.
I won't be voting for Vettleson before Guyer or Beckham. Beckham is my number 2 positional prospect no doubt with Guyer just trailing him.
Mahtook/Vettleson are close for me.
Agreed. After this, (assuming this vote goes to Torres, I will probably go with Beckham
Followed by Guyer.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Ehh, Guyer actually will be a bit lower than 5th for me, probably more around 7th or so.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
I got Mahtook before Vettleson because he is closer to the majors.
I like both a lot, like you said they are very close, I just prefer Mahtook right now.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 16, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
I prefer both over Guyer though
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 16, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
I'm the head of the Vettleson fan club, so I don't expect many to agree with me.
I have a good feeling about him.
That speech alone makes me agree with you
How strong of a feeling is it?
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Sarcasm?
If not, I can’t really explain it. I really liked him coming out of the 2010 draft, feeling that he was pretty underrated. He can handle a COF spot defensively, and his bat (and SBs) could make him an All-Star out there.
I hated him out of the draft. Though he seemed like a 4th OF (not taht much pop, couldn't play CF, etc.).
I’m much more excited about him after he put on a little power and speed display this year, but he’s still pretty far away and doesn’t have a standout tool.
Sarcasm, yes, rude sarcasm, no.
But I did want to know why you like him so much.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Guyer seems very polarizing.
If you believe fully in the bat, he is probably #3. If not, then he is from the 5-15 range.
So.....How often will this be posted? I'm hoping I can vote in each one, but If there are 2 each day I will probably miss a couple.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
Since the first two were won 100%, I went through them quickly.
It should be around 1 a day, or maybe one every two days if the voting gets more spread out. Since Torres pretty much has this one locked up, I’ll make a new one sometime tomorrow.
Cool, I'll be sure to tune in for it all.
Really good idea man, big success, and very fun to vote in.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Any idea when it will be posted?
I saw he was trying to cut the list down to 45 or something, but is he only ranking 20?
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Nevermind...
Sometime tomorrow apparently
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 16, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions
His "sometime tomorrow" comment came yesterday
Hence rglass (and me) refreshing today
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 16, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
In one of those threads, I had to argue with several posters who didn't seem to think Hellickson could lower his walk rate.
Some were lready taking Alveraz of the Jays ahead of Helly. Incredible how quickly some can jump ship. One study on the draft and age and all of a sudden, no one likes Starling anymore.
Hey, I was making the age argument with Jose Fernandez before the study :P
Granted, he looked at hitters, but I can’t see pitching being that much different (probably not as extreme though)
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 16, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Just posted
Noon on Thursday will be when rankings go up
by Jacob Larsen on Nov 16, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
The comparisons between Moore and Romero are striking.
Both, at their age 20 seasons, pitched at BG.
Romero: 11.1 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 114 IP
Moore: 12.9 K/9, 5.1 BB/9, 123 IP
Both had a good fastball/curve combo that showed potential while also having promising, developing changeups.
GAWD
Using K%/BB% helps Romero’s BB-issues look better, but his K% isn’t quite as good (though still very good).
Moore- 33.7% K%, 13.4% BB%
Romero- 27.8%, 13.5%
The big difference was BABIP and HR/FB where Moore was much better. The question, to me, then is Romero sometimes trying to be to just “get it over” causing more hard hit balls leading to more HRs and tougher balls to make plays on. Romero looks to have a bright future, though. I wonder if my perception on him compared to Moore is due to the fact that Romero was up and down all year where Moore started slow and then was lights out.
From a gchat convo (essentially how I order the system):
to me its like this
moore defs 1
only real elite
then lee
slight dropoff
then bex and the top 4 arms
(torres, archer, guerreri, and romero)
then the 3 ofs (guyer, mahtook, vettleson)
w/ colome in the mix w/ those guys
then a drop where you have the other early 2011 picks, sale, bush, and dietrich
the 2011 picks are so hard to seperate
so many w/ so many different strengths/weaknesses
like i may have carpenter higher than any besides hager, mahtook, or guerreri
Now he likes Carpenter more than Garvin
My work here is done :P
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
w/o the injury id still be all over garvin. hes the draft version of torres/guyer.
id be pretty surprised if he doesnt make an mlb 25-man, but he’ll never be FOR.
I guess I just don't see why Torres is labeled as lower ceiling.
To me, his ceiling is very high. The odds of him reaching it are so slim though.
he's closer to a finished product. i guess you could say he still has a very high ceiling, but he has almost no chance of reaching it.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 17, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
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