The Rays Tank: Batted Ball Contact, More Chaim Bloom, And Trade Rumors Galore

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 17, 2011 8:01 AM EST in The Rays Tank

MLB Chatter

What better way to start the day than with some humor? I feel ashamed to admit it, but despite being around SB Nation for the better part of the last few years, I've just now discovered the brilliance of Jon Bois. His columns always crack me up, and he wrote a piece yesterday on some rather unique early-90s baseball cards. I can't say I remember the cards he's talking about, but I definitely recall the pervasive "Say No To Drugs!" culture that infiltrated schools then.

Now take a long swig of your coffee before digging into this next piece. Mike Fast published some research over at Baseball Prospectus yesterday, in which he tried to determine how much control pitchers and hitters have over their batted ball contact. It's a fascinating piece, but takes a bit to get through it. Trust me, it's worth it.

Also, Tango followed up on Fast's piece with some assorted thoughts of his own on batted ball contact.

Dave Cameron conducted an interesting thought experiment at FanGraphs. He looked at all the players whose careers ended abruptly and without any warning, and he tried to determine if there was any similarity between those players. It was a novel idea, but it doesn't appear to have turned up anything that new or radical. You see any trend there?

Rays Talk

Rays Prospects published the second part of their interview with Chaim Bloom, so if you enjoyed the first part, be sure to check out the second. I found the note about the Northwest to be particularly interesting.

As you all heard, Joe Maddon won the AL Manager of the Year award yesterday. Brad and I both typed up some thoughts on Maddon being selected, and you can find them over at SB Nation Tampa Bay.

It's been rumored that the Rockies are interested in Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann, although their current roster doesn't leave them many potential trade chips that the Rays would be interested in. Chris Iannetta has the most potential, but he is only under contract for one more season.

And yet, Andrew Friedman is insisting that the Rays aren't likely to trade a starter this offseason. It's like the infamous "There will be no $7 million closers" all over again. I'll believe it when I see it.

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Comments

I don't see why Jeff Niemann couldn't be a back end of the bullpen type guy

He’s pretty cheap and has had some success.

Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete

by stpetelawyer on Nov 17, 2011 9:23 AM EST reply actions

only way a Rox trade makes sense is if their willing to consider Rosario

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions

Why is that the only way that makes sense?

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 17, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

If the Rockies are able to sign Sizemore (he's working out for them) they will dangle Seth Smith--i like him

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

They're fools if they deal Seth Smith

Fools

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

they need SP, and he'd be a tradeable piece

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

good platoon bat vs righties

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions

3 more years of team control for him

He and Matt Joyce are extremely similar across the board

defensively as well.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

would be a good target if decide to trade Upton

not sure what his purpose would be if we keep him.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

he can flat out hit--who cares what side of the plate ut's from?

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

.202 BA & 598 OPS vs LHP in his career (239 PA's)

A lot like Joyce

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

But

They’re fools if they deal Seth Smith
Fools

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

he mashes righties, yes. But some pitchers outhit him vs lefties

last 3 years vs lefties: .213/.279/.337/.606
last 3 years vs righties: .287/.360/.518/.878

Very useful bat, but unless you trade Upton, where are you putting him?

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

So Sonnanstine should

hit against lefties?

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 17, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

Iannetta is only under contract one more year if traded...not worth trading Davis for 1 season of anything

I guess Niemann could work, but still the Rays would be better off trading for a young 1B with multiple years of control than 1 year of a catcher who hasn’t done all that great away from Coors Field. But if Rosario was on the table, then a young catcher with 6 years of team control would make sense with the Rays.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

maybe if Rays could work out a contract extension for Iannetta

then a Niemann trade might make sense.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 9:59 AM EST up reply actions

Do we really want to give Shoppach 2.0 a contract extension?

AND give up Niemann for him? Just resign Shoppach instead.

by mr. maniac on Nov 17, 2011 10:01 AM EST up reply actions

Iannetta is coming off a 3.3 WAR season (which is more than Shoppach's last 3 seasons combined)

but there is definitely enough concern to make one pause before making a deal. His low contact rate, horrible home-away splits, etc. I agree with you. I’d rather see a SP traded for a Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso type 1B before making a move for Iannetta.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

maniac, what's your take on soto from the Cubs? Would you target him?

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

Soto is interesting.

His defense is solid, right?

He compares favorably to the catchers the Rays have right now, but he has had a few minor health issues and has eclipsed 105 games only twice in his four full seasons. That is more of a minor issue.

The stark up and downs of his career appear to be BABIP-related. His past year’s BABIP seems about right, but he has had two years with high BABIPs.

In his two good years, he has feasted of fastballs. Not so much the other two years.

His splits also do not appear to be much of an issue, even though he plays in Wrigley.

I would rather target a catcher than a SS due to Beckham and Lee. If he could be gotten for Niemann (or Cobb?), I would do the deal. I would maybe see if they could throw a little chip in there also.

by mr. maniac on Nov 17, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions

Besides Iannetta, I'd ask about the availability of Tim Wheeler while I was at it.

Offense and defense are both pretty strong for him; only real problem i could see is where would the Rays put him, but that can be sorted out.

by TBRaysfan009 on Nov 17, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

To those who suggest trading James Shields, and especially those

trading him for prospects

The Rockies were able to get the Indians top 3 pitching prospects for Baldy Jimenez when arguably he was not at the top of his game. Point is Shields IS at the top of his game so now is not the time to deal him for top prospects. In a year or two if his game is fallen off a bit, he’ll still be able to bring in the top talent of another club, ala the Jimenez deal

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2011 9:55 AM EST reply actions

not true

Shields doesn’t have the perceived (and probably not actual either) upside Ubaldo does

by benderbrodriguez on Nov 17, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions

Anyone else tired of the doom and gloom crap?

Instead of relishing in Maddon only being the 7th manager to win multiple Manager of Year awards, we get garbage like this from Romano talking about low-budget Rays may soon have to let go of Maddon.

You are not building a fan base through crying poverty, bs. Rather promote the fact that the Rays have the best manager and FO in the game—so you can pride yourselves in the “Rays way” when players come and go, since these guys know how to win with what they have.

All I will say is if the Rays can’t even give Maddon a 1 mil a year bump in pay, that is pathetic.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 10:02 AM EST reply actions

sorry, forgot the link

Joe Maddon may not be around forever

And instead of looking at SI.com and seeing a positive look at the Rays, on their Morning Jolt it reports Maddon may be out the door sooner rather than later. Thanks, Romano.

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 10:04 AM EST up reply actions

That is the most bugus, crappy, terrible, lie-filled article I have ever read regarding the Rays.

Does the guy even know the cost for managers? If Maddon wanted to go, he would have requested for it. What a jerk….. what a jerk.

Has anyone else heard of these “intense negoitiations” where Maddon is trying to get out of here?

I am disgusted. I constantly hear that Stu was the one who made us feel like 2011 was a rebuilding year, but the newspaper certainly had more to do with it.

by mr. maniac on Nov 17, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

The Times has constantly cried poor, and always emphasized low cost whenever the Rays have signed Free Agents

The stadium talk, the mass exodus of free agents last year, and now Maddon. It seems like every major story has to include a financial dump in order for it to be printed. There are so many different positive angles that story could have taken. Instead, Romano just made it look like Rays being cheap and don’t deserve their manager as that is the story that gets attention nationally.

Rays have one of the best teams in all of baseball. A team that consistently beats all odds. Doesn’t that give plenty right there to write about? Why tear down a team that anyone would love to have?

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

and why not make it a positive that everyone wants what the Rays have? Only shows all the more that the Rays have built something awesome here

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Of course there are positive things.

Our own manager has stated he doesn’t want to go anywhere else and that this is the best place to manage. Yet somehow we won’t be able to keep him?

by mr. maniac on Nov 17, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

I have confidence that an extention will be worked out this offseason.

The media has overblown the budget constraints of the clubs. The team has shown when it feels it has a chance it will spend more. Is it true they aren’t in the same financial situation as other clubs in the division? Of course. It may not be popular in the public’s eyes but they have to do what’s in the best interest of the team in regards of trading older more expensive players and letting Free Agents walk.

This offseason is critical. They shed alot of payroll, because they were at a point that they had to rebuild to a degree, mostly of the cost cutting for some players that will have an impact for the next 4-5 years. With the arbitration process as it is, it makes no sense for them to not shed the payroll to a base that makes payroll growth sustainable for the next few seasons. As long as the payroll goes back up for next season to a $55MM or so area with increases over the next few years things will be fine. I don’t believe the ownership is going to cap spending at $45-50MM and not have growth over the next few seasons.

Just because the team is trimming payroll for future growth doesn’t automatically signal a “rebuilding year” when you have young talent coming up around to support your core talent.

I personally will be worried and have more of a doom and gloom outlook only if the team makes move that are strictly money dumps where they aren’t preparing for the future.

by jtmorgan on Nov 17, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

I can't agree with you more. Also for the most part social sites like facebook and twitter are more negative based than positive

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Nov 17, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

The irony of this post in delicious.

by M.J.R. on Nov 17, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

*is...not in

by M.J.R. on Nov 17, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

absolutely dripping

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

Romano was leading the drum this time last season about how bad the Rays would be as well

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

wondering if he's $tu's puppet

by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 17, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

I doubt Stu wants people to think the Rays suck.

by mr. maniac on Nov 17, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

Not a fair statement

He’s a long-standing columist.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

To be fair, my comment was centered around this particular article

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/tampa-bay-rays-may-be-better-off-punting-on-2011-building-for-future/1137659

The title never sat well with me and I felt like I fought that message all off-season when doing the radio stuff around the state.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Nov 17, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

Love the Bois article. Especially this bit:

That’s not a nice word, but I suppose printing an ableist slur is okay as long as it’s in the service of having some poor kid pencil-barf a rabble of words onto a sheet of paper in a vain attempt to convince you that she actually understands and cares about the half-sentence mantras you keep yelling at her.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Nov 17, 2011 11:26 AM EST reply actions

I feel deprived that I've just recently discovered Bois.

His article on “endurance football” a bit ago was also amazing.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Nov 17, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

A trade with the Rox might make sense....

if we can get a 3-way trade with another team. Lots of teams seem to have interest in the crowded Rockies outfield. SI threw out a Logan Morrison-for-Dexter Fowler trade (which would be crazy from the Marlins point of view), but lets say they do have interest in Fowler or Smith. Maybe we give up Niemann or Davis, the Marlins get Fowler or Smith, and we get Gaby Sanchez or Morrison. I think the Marlins would want more, but seems like it could be worked out.

by free hotdogs on Nov 17, 2011 11:28 AM EST reply actions

If the Rays are to add an impact bat (through FA and within their budget) a couple of options I like are.....

….Ryan Doumit(4 million) and Jason Kubel( 2 years and 9-10 million). While having limited defensive abilities, they do give Maddon line-up flexibility with Doumit being a switch hitter and being able to be a 2nd/3rd catcher or DH and Kubel being able to play corner Of and DH.

But if I was looking to add a RH bat who could DH and maybe platoon in RF(w/Joyce) on some days. I would consider Magglio Ordenez who has shown he can still hit(especially against lefties) and may be able to stay healthier as a DH. His numbers have fell off mostly because of injury the last two seasons but if he was used mostly at DH, could be worth a 2-3 million dollar deal.

by budman3 on Nov 17, 2011 5:51 PM EST reply actions