Rays Community Prospect #6

by mr. maniac on Nov 21, 2011 11:54 PM EST

With 64% of the vote, Tim Beckham is rated the Rays 5th best prospect.

3. Alex Torres (53%)

4. Enny Romero (80% runoff)

5. Tim Beckham (64%)

Candidates: Chris Archer, Alex Colome, Taylor Guerrieri, Mikie Mahtook, Drew Vettleson, Brandon Guyer, Josh Sale, and Ryan Brett.

Chris Archer: With a superb slider and fastball combo, Archer has very good stuff. However, his changeup lags behind and his command has been very poor. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=archer001chr)

Alex Colome: Colome has a plus fastball and a developing curve and changeup. His command still needs some work. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=colome001ale)

Taylor Guerrieri: The Rays first pick in the 2011 draft out of high school, Guerrieri has a good fastball/curveball mix. He has no pro experience.

Mikie Mahtook: Mahtook was a first round pick in the 2011 draft. He plays in the OF and possesses good all-around tools. He has no pro experience, except some time in the AFL.

Drew Vettleson: The Ray's second first round pick in 2010, Vettleson put up a strong year in 2011. He is an all around player with solid defense and a good bat. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vettle001dre)

Brandon Guyer: Guyer has hit well despite being a little older for a prospect. He has solid tools across the board and should contribute for the Rays in 2012. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=guyer-001bra)

Josh Sale: A hyped up first round pick from the 2010 Rays draft, Josh Sale performed poorly in his first pro year at Princeton, with rumors of swing issues (I don't know how accurate they are). He still has raw power though. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sale--001jos)

Ryan Brett: A third round pick from the 2010 draft, Brett performed well during his first year. He has a good all around game, but his defense at 2B needs work. If he has to move, CF would probably be the spot. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=brett-001rya)

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

+1

No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.

by thedudeofdudes on Nov 22, 2011 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by Jacob Larsen on Nov 22, 2011 9:35 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by TFelsmaier on Nov 23, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

+1

I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.

by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

by pudieron89 on Nov 23, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

Drew Vettleson

by mr. maniac on Nov 21, 2011 11:55 PM EST reply actions

+1

by mr. maniac on Nov 21, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by TBRaysfan009 on Nov 22, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions

+1

Under construction

by joeybw on Nov 22, 2011 1:40 AM EST up reply actions

+1

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Nov 22, 2011 8:48 AM EST up reply actions

+1

I was really impressed when I saw him play this past summer.

by jtmorgan on Nov 22, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

Brandon Guyer

by mr. maniac on Nov 21, 2011 11:55 PM EST reply actions

+1

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Nov 22, 2011 7:17 AM EST up reply actions

+1

I just can’t rate a guy who hasn’t shown he can hit good pitching #6 when Guyer is here.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 22, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

seriously

we have precedent (Nelson Cruz) for a player with basically Guyer’s exact same skill set and history — a tools guy who finally put it together late. I’m not saying Guyer is the next Cruz — although that would be nice! — but people who are dinging Guyer for not having enough upside are underselling him.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 22, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

and how many precedents do you have of those same skill sets and histories turning into 4A players

I hope Guyer turns out to be the next Cruz, but blowing my load because he hit a homer in his first game isn’t going to make me think he is the 2nd coming.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 22, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

again, I vote for these lists on expected value

Right now, Guyer’s floor is a lefty-mashing, very good defensive corner outfielder and passable CF — sort of a homegrown Gabe Kapler. His ceiling is Nelson Cruz.

You can ask “how many of those guys stagnate and become a 4A player?” — but how many guys who put up an .819 OPS in rookie ball (Vettleson) or were drafted in the first round and hit in the AFL League (Mahtook) never become anything at all?

At this point, Guyer’s ceiling is on par with Mahtook’s or Vettleson’s, and his floor is considerably higher. There’s really no good argument on EV for either of those guys over Guyer.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 22, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

I disagree.

You have to take into consideration the chance of reaching the players ceiling.

by mr. maniac on Nov 22, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

what are the chances Mahtook reaches his ceiling? 5%?

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 22, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Better than Guyer's, imo.

For example, who do you like more: Guerrieri or Archer? archer may have the higher ceiling, but it seems very improbable that he reaches his ceiling, for reasons different than Guerrieri.

by mr. maniac on Nov 22, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

well, I guess that clears up our disagreement, at least

I think you’re severely underestimating the risk of failure for guys who have yet to play even a single inning of professional baseball. Look at Josh Sale, for example — he came significantly more well-regarded than Mahtook, and was terrible last year. I’m still a Sale believer, but it’s illustrative.

So to answer your question: I have Archer over Guerrieri for similar reasons; Archer has been good — if flawed — in the high minors. Guerrieri hasn’t thrown a single pitch to a guy over the age of 18 yet. I know Archer can get major-leaguers out (if only inconsistently at this point); I don’t know that Guerrieri can.

The difference is much more significant between Guyer and Mahtook/Vettleson, of course.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 22, 2011 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

I think Mahtook and Morrison both have higher ceilings

But ceiling isn’t everything.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 22, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Morrison's ceiling is higher if you completely ignore skills or the likelihood that tools turn in to skills.

by rglass44 on Nov 22, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

wait you guys aren't talking about Ty Morrison are you

or did that Drew guy change his last name and no one told me.

by Dbullsfan on Nov 22, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

What you speak of is the chance that he reaches his ceiling

Not his pure ceiling

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 22, 2011 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

He has almost no baseball skills. He's fast. That's it. He's a good athlete.

by rglass44 on Nov 22, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

He has a very good upside

but he doesnt have Cruz power does he?

No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.

by thedudeofdudes on Nov 22, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

pretty much, yeah

Guyer had a .209 ISO at AAA this year and a .244 ISO at AA last year.

Cruz’s minor-league ISOs were similar: .236 in ‘04 (A/AA); .248 in ’05 (AA/AAA), and .226 in ’06 (AAA). I’m not adjusting for league and park, but Cruz played in some bandboxes during those seasons.

by AndrewTorrez on Nov 22, 2011 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

The difference I think is that Cruz's ISO is from his homers. Guyer's is more from his doubles and triples

I definitely see Guyer as a productive MLB player but more in the mold of a Rondell White — .290/.350/.460 hitter, and who can play CF more than adequately.

I voted my Mahtook because there’s a chance he posts a .400 OBP in his prime. That’s sexy to me. :)

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 22, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions