The Rays Tank: Reactions To The Jaso-Lueke Trade
Rays Talk
The big news right now is obviously the John Jaso-Josh Lueke trade, and a wide range of people have already chimed in on it. If you're looking for some Monday morning reading, here are a couple different takes to get you started:
J.C. Mitchell wrote about the trade over at MLB Dirt, and he talked with a Seattle-based writer to get a scouting report on Lueke. It's a good overall take on the trade, and I appreciated learning about Lueke's pitch repertoire.
Over at SB Nation Tampa Bay, Brad looked at the trade and asked Does The John Jaso Trade Make Jose Molina A Starter? My guess is Molina's body can't hold up to an entire season's grind anymore, but I don't have a problem with him getting the vast majority of the starts at catcher. Even if his offense is pitiful, I'm already in love with his defense.
Speaking of defense, Matthew Carruth at Lookout Landing compiled Jaso's defensive ratings from the catcher defensive studies that have been done recently: plate blocking, plate framing, and caught stealing rate. I knew he was bad at defense from watching him, but I don't think I had a full appreciation of how bad before looking at the numbers. I'll have more on this later once I finish crunching some numbers myself.
MLB Chatter
In other news, there was a great guest post over at FanGraphs about why teams shouldn't overpay relievers. Alex Lewin works at Baseball Info Solutions, and the post itself is a fantastic read.
If you like advanced baseball stats, there's an article at the Montreal Gazette about something else that might interest you: advanced hockey stats. Trying to evaluate hockey players is a whole other world from baseball and it makes for a unique challenge, but there are still fellow nerds out there looking to understand the game better.
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Let's hope this trade paves the way for a return of Kelly Shoppach
And thank God Friedman and Maddon didn’t even allow John Jaso into their ST camp. This freakin dude was awful.
Any Rays fan that would want either Lobaton or Chirinos catching 100 games next season instead of Shop/Molina doesn’t think much of the team’s chances
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Make the case for Shoppach being demonstrably better than Lobaton
After what I saw of Chirinos, I’m fine with him needing more time to get his footwork and release in order, but I’m having a hard time separating Lobaton & Shoppach considering Molina replaces Shoppach’s work behind the dish and then some.
Since joining the Rays, he’s had 155 PA’s vs LHP & has a slash line of .336/.396/.486 against them within that small sample size after being rather poor against them with the Padres. Either he’s made a change in his swing as a righty or he’s had some small sample size fortune. Lobaton also had a .411 OBP last season in Durham in the platoon situation he was used in with Chirinos. I’m willing to give him the chance on the job and pocket the $2M (assuming Shoppach has a floor of $2.5M) and use it elsewhere on the roster.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
I'll play
I don’t dispute anything you just posted about Lobaton. He’d be great on a team that already had a 100+ game reliable starting catcher and he can ease his way in and maybe even end up taking more of a load.
I’ll defer to “what Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman” would do argument.
I don’t see Lobaton being offered the chance at the role of 80+ game catcher nor do I see Molina getting 90+ games at catcher. I do see the Rays looking for a catcher that could split time with Molina and having Lobaton ready to come up if an injury occurs.
This is just my opinion as to the direction the Rays will go.
Molina hasn't caught more than 81 games in his career - and I don't expect that to change
Let’s assume one or both get hurt during the season since that’s what the team has had to deal with the past few seasons.
Are you comfortable with:
Molina – 70 games
Lobaton – 50 games
Chirinos/others – 42 games?
I’d love to get a Ramon Hernandez, but when Barajas is getting a $4M deal on the open market, that’s just not good news for a budget-minded club.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
I would be most comfortable
with Shoppach at 85 games, Molina at 40 games and then Lobaton/Chirinos the injury time/September call up.
That’s just me.
$1.8M is a big dollar figure for a guy playing 25% of the time though. Seems like they have bigger plans for his usage
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
oops
I meant Molina at 70 games!
Shoppach at 85 games.
With Lobaton/Chirinos sprinkled in due to injury/September games.
Give or take 10 games on both Molina and Shoppach.
I’d rather go long in the tooth on this roster at C/UT/OF than go with any of the kids at the outset.
Kids come up as needed.
I agree that I think these moves portend
another move at C — whether that’s a trade (Iannetta?) or a FA signing (R. Hernandez?), I don’t know, but I doubt AF is done here.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 28, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
I didn't know the Durham Bulls were now called the Rays
Since joining the Rays, he’s had 155 PA’s vs LHP & has a slash line of .336/.396/.486 against them
Lobaton has had exactly 39 PA as a Ray and 56 total in his MLB career, but let’s compare that to what Shoppach has done
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
the Rays' org
Shoppach is a guy you have called a failed signing as recently as late summer and now you are his staunchest defender. What changed?
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
I don't recall saying that besides he was aqyired in a trade
Also listening to Andrew and Joe in their post season presser, i heard nothing but praise about Shop and would be surprised if we didn’t make an offer
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probably like Damon
there is a framework in place for a deal. Shoppach and Damon are both out there seeing if they can do better. If not, the Rays will bring them both back.
Let's hope so. The Rays have substantially upgraded the C with the Molina signing and getting Shop makes us solid there
Joe loves Damon and isn’t afraid to let the world know
This team won 91 games, so tinkering not imploding is what’s needed
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Every move Friedman made with a couple exceptions failed (Kotch, Farsnworth)
1-Manny
2- Dan Jo
3- Brignac
4- Shop/Jaso
5- Barty trade
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by sternfan1 on Jul 26, 2011 11:11 AM EDT actions
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Yep the catching tandem of Jaso and Shop TOGETHER was not good
basically because Jaso flamed offensively and defensively, and as we knew Shop had a guarantee for last season Jaso needed to go
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Some of your best spin yet
Still enjoy your passion though
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
aren't opinions dynamic
not static?
Don’t they shift like the wind blows from day to day?
Isn’t it silly to pull a post from July 26 and apply it to someone’s thoughts today?
Don’t most fans opinions change?
At some point this silly pulling peoples old posts from Twitter to make them look bad as they are probably out of context with time passing has got to come to an end….right?
All for opinions changing, but hearing why they did brings true value to it
It could open up the minds of others to hear how someone who typically is entrenched in his opinions of players changed his mind over the final 2 months of the season.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think you have to work too hard
to pull up ridiculous flip-flopping for a guy who spent the 2010 offseason clamoring for the Rays to release (!) Shields.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 28, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I'm just trying to encourage discussion
If he feels so strongly about retaining Shoppach now as he did for calling him a failure in late July, I’d like to see the thought process behind that so that me and maybe others can see something we may be overlooking.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
wait the Barty trade failed?
just because Brignac sucked offensively, doesn’t mean Bartlett wouldn’t have been bad as well with worse defense. Not too mention Gomes was arguably our best reliever starting Sept 2nd last year.
yeah, the Bartlett trade remains a steal
Rays give up the opportunity to pay him $16.5MM guaranteed to produce a 76 OPS+ while his defense declines. In return, they get a solid ROOGY with upside (Gomes), a fringe lefty specialist (Ramos), a fringe utility infield prospect (Figueroa), and a guy who throws hard and might learn how to pitch (Russell). Still a huge win.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 28, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm glad to be rid of Jaso, but the timing and optics of this move are just awful
Really bad move by the RFO.
Umm, care to explain?
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 28, 2011 8:31 AM EST up reply actions
Ahh, I see your bit in the other thread.
I tend to think the everyone’s overreacting to how this will get perceived by the public. The response to the move on the #Rays hashtag on twitter was pretty overwhelmingly positive last night, and even if the talk show hosts have a field day, so what? The story will blow over in a few days, and it’ll be largely forgotten about by the time ST rolls around.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 28, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Well, it certainly won't be a national story like the other recent sexual abuse stories in the news
But it doesn’t have to be national news influence the casual Tampa Bay baseball fan which make up the bulk of the fanbase. Face it, the only people interested over the weekend (especially thanksgiving weekend) are hardcore baseball fans. Most of the general public will be just finding out about it today, and I’m pretty sure their response will be a good deal less positive.
Frankly...
I think the initial reactions to the deal were mainly due to the fact most of the #Rays group was naive to the entire Lueke story. Hell, even Cork’s initial post about the trade failed to mention anything about Lueke’s backstory and once Topkin tweeted out that info, it started snowballing.
I knew the story, but unfairly to Cory Luebke’s rep, I always get the names confused and have to double-check anything I type before commenting on the situation.
I have a daughter so my view on this situation is going to be different than most and its pretty well known I have a tough time separating the on and off-field crap.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
To be fair, the Mariners were also naive to the Lueke story when they acquired him from the Rangers
Depending on who you believe anyway.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2012784518_lueke02.html
Yea, the details are very mixed with that story
Rangers insist they’ve said they’d rework in a separate deal but at the same time, an org should have made a simple google search part of their homework when doing a player evaluation/background check
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Wonder if the Rangers are still open to making that deal
Maybe we could work something out. I’m sure AF could be convinced to take a chance on that oft-injured centerfielder of theirs.
THose stories aren't pretty and can be tough to swallow.
I know my hope is my daughter won’t be at a bar making out with multiple people and drunk enough to black or pass out. I’ve had nights in my youth where my recollections were fuzzy at best. Its a scary situation for a woman to put herself in. Who knows what happened and what was consensual versus not. If she was truly attacked its awful. Based on the plea agreement, I think there is a fair amount of doubt as to the nature of the events of that night.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 28, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
But the contents of the q-tip swab from a inside a certain orifice leave no doubt
If she was willing to press charges, he’d be pitching in the California Penal League right now.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
What do you mean?
People engage in activity in said oriface all the time? It may not be your bag, but its not abnormal.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 28, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
One normally remembers opening the backdoor for someone
The guy got a very fortunate break from this situation and here’s to hoping he’s learned from it and changed his decision making. We haven’t heard anything since the incident from him so he appears to be walking the straight and narrow line since then and good for him.
I’m not much for the narratives related to player stories, but this one is not one I feel comfortable just glossing over.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't the arguement whether it was consensual or not?
It didn’t go to trial, and, from what I have read, I doubt she would have had much of a case.
Yes, it plead out to false imprisonment with violence
Even the gray area between that and the probable charge is an uncomfortable one.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
True.
I feel that on a legal sense we are being a bit harsh on him, but in a moral sense it is fair to be extremely cautious and a bit upset.
Completely agree there
The moral highground is not a place I feel comfortable taking anytime as lord knows I have enough of my own problems.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I think the additionally troubling aspect
is that Lueke hasn’t ever shown any remorse about it.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 28, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
That is very troubling for me.
I’m curious to know more about his backround (when he was younger) and see if that had any impact. I hope Joe can work some magic on him and he realizes that people are willing to give him a second chance, and that HE should be grateful for that.
I don't think it is a matter of glossing over it.
I think it is asking whether any one incident is sufficient to define a person. The question is whether this was an isolated event, whether if it was it tells us something fundamental about Lueke.
Question: How many of us would want to judged by the worst thing we have ever done?
1st question you propose is the most important one
As far as the 2nd one, like it or not, that’s how things are with some people and the fault in that relationship lies with the person who made the bad choice.
Hopefully that eventually just goes away and people quit judging on what they’re hearing and actually get to know me and they can make their own opinion
That’s not a very contrite statement. I want to do the latter, but that the first part of his statement is not terribly endearing.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
I've never had my backdoor opened, so I wouldn't know
but for some woman its the orifice of choice, so no it wouldn’t stick out for every woman. And I would imagine for some who wanted to explore, losing your inhibition in a drunken stupor might is a likely first go around. Particularly with a “ballplayer”.
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Yep, the media will always find a negative narrative. Offseason is always painful.
“Cheap owners, attendance, blah blah” I’m with you Slow. This is very old news.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 28, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Which would you fault the media for more?
Bringing it up or not bringing it up? As Transplanted pointed out last night, 1 in 4 assaults of young women go unreported so pretending like this never happened is a disservice.
Maybe its just the father of a daughter in me talking but sleeping on it still didn’t make me feel any better about the acquisition.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Its an old story. If this happened this offseason it would be a relevent conversation.
As I state below, there is a lot of doubt that can be at play. He’s no saint and not someone I would want my daughter around, but I also don’t want my daughter making out with multiple men at a bar and going home with them. It doesn’t mean she deserved any harm, but it was poor decision making.
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by FreeZorilla on Nov 28, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Yup, that sums my line of thought on this too.
And I’m shocked that guys and girls in their early 20s can make poor drunken decisions. Shocked.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Nov 28, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I've made some poor drunken decisions in my day as well, but I never pleaded out to them either
Nor lied to investigators about my actions.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Yep
I’ve made lots of stupid decision, some that involved alcohol and some for which I was completely sober. However, none of them involved rape … er … “false imprisonment with violence.”
by nomoredevil on Nov 28, 2011 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
He plead guilty, that's not confirmation?
I’m a firm believer in fine lines, but I really don’t see one here. He had sex with her. She was either unconscious, or so drunk she couldn’t remember it (which is likely so drunk that she was incapable of consenting.) This is no different than climbing behind the wheel of a car. “Having a bad night” is not a legitmate excuse for ruining someone else’s life.
by nomoredevil on Nov 28, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
He never pleaded guilty for rape.
He did for false imprisonment with violence. Because it didn’t go to trial, it is all very hazy,
If you faced a hazy hard to define rape charge, you just might have
Thats a terrifying charge to be staring down at trial.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Truth will set you free
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Molina deal done - $1.8M for 2012 plus team option
Savings of $1.4M to what Shoppach was due had his option been picked up
I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______
Great deal, now let's give Shop a one year $2.5m w/an option and let's go
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Barajas just got $4M being the better hitter and only slightly worse defender

If Shoppach signs a $2.5M deal, it’s either due to the fact he and his agent misread the market or others thought his defensive efforts in controlling the running game were more Shields’ pickoff move than any improvement in Kelly’s footwork and release.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Speaking of Shields' pickoff, wonder if the Rays first baseman last season helped up his total
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Ideally, a left-handed first baseman is better for any pickoff play
That’s a downside of the thought of moving Joyce to 1st, or any right-handed 1B for that matter.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
I'll keep dreaming of a Pena return
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 28, 2011 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
It wouldn't be a drop-off defensively in the slightest
Maddon said last season the two were very similar charging balls and moving side to side but Pena was one of the best on balls back over his head while Kotchman struggled in that area.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
or
Kelly had better footwork and release because he wasn’t playing on a recently surgically repaired right knee? First time those knees were healthy in 3 years had to help?
I’d love to talk to Shields about the evolution of his pick off move. Just to hear how he advanced from last to this year.
Shields mentioned that Dick Bosman was huge for him
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110526&content_id=19596428&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
great article
some very interesting dialogue between Chastain and Shields
by MrNegative1 on Nov 28, 2011 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Yep
Thought it was a very insightful piece
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
random thought
if the Mariners sign Fielder, would that make Smoak available? I’d put him near the top of the list, despite his struggles, as a young 1B to target.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 28, 2011 10:01 AM EST reply actions
As the guy they got for Lee, I'd have to imagine his price tag would still be rather high
As they could always play one of them at DH until something works out. The strength the Rays have right now to trade from in pitching is the one thing the Mariners have no need for as their organization is loaded with talented arms in Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, Campos, and then add in the upside of Furbush to the mix.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
They have Mike Carp also
They would need to trade either Smoak or Carp if they sign Fielder.
The M’s do have incredible potential in their rotation but they don’t have MLB depth as of the moment. Hultz and Paxton might be ready by mid-season.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 28, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Mike Carp is still a distant 3rd
The M’s depth at this moment isn’t critical since they’re not a 2012 contender. Why trade away value to get pitching that’s only going to further crowd an already crowded situation? I’d just sign more slagarms and throw them in there to hold the place for the youth. Sonnanstine would be a perfect fit for that role and park if he wants to be a starting pitcher again.
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
You are correct that they are not likely to contend
But there is pressure for their front office to not have the team be so miserable with attendance dropping and ownership getting impatient. They’d want to be decent at least.
With MLB-ready starting pitching in mind as a need, plus the Safeco advantage given to lefty pitches, I would think Jack Z would want Alex Torres rather than Niemann or Davis.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 28, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
To extend the theory, that would mean dealing Cliff Lee for Alex Torres & John Jaso
ouch
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
Sandy Kaz with a good writeup on Lueke
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 12:02 PM EST reply actions
I honestly never knew Jason was Sandy.
Strange how he can be so mild tempered while writing but so tempermental while posting. He was banned, right?
Nope....self-banishment over the OTT debacle
He’s welcome back here any time. He was removed from the writing staff, but his posting privileges are intact
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure what people on here see in the M's GM
He has done nothing but stay in the cellar the last two years. The farm is ok, the team itself is less than average. He choked when it came to the Cliff Lee trade. Milton Bradley was a fail, Chone Figgins was a fail(although I am not sure he signed both). Same with the Pirates GM. Team is not very good and the farm is ok, but it’s not because of the GM, it’s because of the new dedication for higher amateur spending.
yes - their farm moves are strong
His major league contract moves, not so strong
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
There is staying in the cellar Omar Minaya/Ed Wade way and then there's the somewhat Chris Antonetti way
Jack Z has made some good trade and good drafts. Several moves just haven’t work out (Figgins disaster was totally unforeseen). But what he has done with the M’s farm system is remarkable considering how much damage Bill Bavasi inflicted on it.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 28, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
I haven't read all the details yet I'm going to get to those in a minute
but if it is as bad as some of you make it out to be, wouldn’t MLB ban him from the sport? I’m not saying the guy is innocent of all chargers or a saint but if the guy is allowed in the league why not give him a chance in ST and at least get an idea of what his character is, if he turns out to be a total douchebag than cut him and what we end up trading Jaso for Cash, hell some people here might have been okay with giving another team cash just to take Jaso.
On what grounds?
He wasn’t even on the 40 man roster when it happened so he’s not under the MLBPA agreement
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by Jason Collette on Nov 28, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure there are ways around it, call it black balling or whatever
but reading into even more it looks a bit sketchy to me
This is what I'm saying.
Hey, if he comes here, and gets into more legal trouble, I’ll ready my pitchfork.
The “details” of the rape are really… sketchy as you say though.
























