Rays Community Prospect #8
by mr. maniac on Nov 29, 2011 2:00 PM EST
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After losing in a run off to Mikie Mahtook, Brandon Guyer rallied for 50% of the votes, earning him the 7th spot.
1. Matt Moore (100%)
2. Hak-Ju Lee (100%)
3. Alex Torres (53%)
4. Enny Romero (80% runoff)
5. Tim Beckham (64%)
6. Mikie Mahtook (63% runoff)
7. Brandon Guyer (50%)
This time around, we will be adding Jake Hager, Parker Markel, Derek Dietrich, Tyler Goeddel, and Oscar Hernandez.
Candidates: Jake Hager, Parker Markel, Derek Dietrich, Tyler Goeddel, Oscar Hernandez, Chris Archer, Alex Colome, Taylor Guerrieri, Drew Vettleson, Josh Sale, and Ryan Brett.
Jake Hager: Selected by the Rays in the first round as their 3rd pick, Hager provides solid tools all around as a dynamic SS prospect. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hager-000jak)
Parker Markel: Markel was selected by the Rays all the way back in the the 39th round. As a pitching prospect, Markel offers a combinations of great stuff and encouraging command. However, his results were not as encouraging as the scouting reports. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=markel001par)
Derek Dietrich: A SS prospect from the 2010 draft, Dietrich offers enticing power from a SS. However, he may need to move off of SS and he was a little old, in prospect terms, for his league. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=dietri002der)
Tyler Goeddel: A first round pick from the 2011 draft, Goeddel recieved an overslot deal to keep him from college. His bat is his main current tool, as his defensive posistioning still isn't clear. However, his bat has a lot of potential if the scouting reports turn out to be true. He has yet to have pro experience.
Oscar Hernandez: In posting video game numbers, Hernandez has himself driving a hype machine. However, little is known about his actual talents besides for the numbers in a small VSL park. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hernan002osc)
Chris Archer: With a superb slider and fastball combo, Archer has very good stuff. However, his changeup lags behind and his command has been very poor. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=archer001chr)
Alex Colome: Colome has a plus fastball and a developing curve and changeup. His command still needs some work. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=colome001ale)
Taylor Guerrieri: The Rays first pick in the 2011 draft out of high school, Guerrieri has a good fastball/curveball mix. He has no pro experience.
Drew Vettleson: The Ray's second first round pick in 2010, Vettleson put up a strong year in 2011. He is an all around player with solid defense and a good bat. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vettle001dre)
Josh Sale: A hyped up first round pick from the 2010 Rays draft, Josh Sale performed poorly in his first pro year at Princeton, with rumors of swing issues (I don't know how accurate they are). He still has raw power though. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=sale--001jos)
Ryan Brett: A third round pick from the 2010 draft, Brett performed well during his first year. He has a good all around game, but his defense at 2B needs work. If he has to move, CF would probably be the spot. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=brett-001rya)
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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+1
I think he’ll be Edwin Jackson good 1 year ahead of Edwin Jackson.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 29, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 29, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
+1
It feels so wrong to vote for someone other than Brandon Guyer
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 29, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I think Colome, Archer and Markel are all getting undervalued here. Maybe not statistical standouts, but all three have what it takes to be solid major league starters and have high upside if things break the right way.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
That said
I can see Guerreri ahead of them, even though I think he’s similar to those three guys. Not sure why all the love for Vettleson this early. He basically put up the same numbers as Kyeong Kang did at the same age at the same level.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I do, of course
But that version of Kang wouldn’t be in my top 25 among this group
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
+1
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I would maybe give TG the edge had he played in the AFL
I just can’t bring myself to vote for a guy who has no pro ball experience, Mahtook was great after the first couple weeks in the AFL.
it doesn't tell us a whole lot, but it gives us some scouting reports
especially for a pitcher we could have seen velocity, movement, command etc…. albeit a SSS.
Higher ceiling or higher floor?
TG has a much higher ceiling, but a much lower floor. I’d put some money down on MM at worst making the bigs as a reserve OF and pinch runner, but at this point I wouldn’t put much money down on TG ever making it.
The fact that Beckham is #5 and Guyer is #7 tells you the community is favoring the higher floor players. Probably because in years past we’ve seen newly drafted Beckham’s and Sale’s in the top 10 and neither has met those initial expectations.
It would be really interesting.
Both would be in my 6-10 range and I would probably go with Mahtook over Guerrieri at this point, but it’s really hard to judge until they get a reasonable sample of pro data.
seems to me that i, and a lot of other people, are going for higher floor with these votes. a lot of the upper list are having success at AA/AAA and we're rewarding that rather than lauding rookie ball performances or draft pedigrees.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that floor should matter to some extent.
But is a floor really that important if it would make them a bench player or fringe starter. A lower chance to reach a ceiling really effects value in my eyes since 1 above average starter is worth much more than roster filler.
I’m not advocating disregarding floor and it makes it really hard to evaluate players like Guerrieri and Mahtook who don’t have a decent sample of pro data.
Well it's not like we're debating between AAAA players. Lee, Torres, Beckham, and Guyer all have the upside to be above average/star players if the pieces fall right but at the very least they're all very likely to be contributors.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Nov 29, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
+1
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 29, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Nov 29, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
If you're going to start adding some lower level guys for testers,
why not add Jeff Malm. He showed great power and he walked well in HV too.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Nov 29, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Malm!
IMO Malm has a higher ceiling than #5-#7 on the list already. I think he’s going to hit for power for sure. Seems like he might have OB skills too. Big question is can he field an avg 1B? The reports I’ve seen haven’t been glowing, though he’s been fine in the very SSS my untrained eyes have seen.
If they start him off at BG this year I think he’ll put up the HR stat that jumps him up these type of lists.
It's really hard to be highly ranked at 1B just because the positional adjustment required to be average is so high.
I like Malm, but it would take something remarkable for him to get higher than the bottom end of the top 10.
Agreed.
By “jumps him up” I meant from the 15-25 rankings I’ve been seeing folks give him into more top 10 consideration.
Somebody is bound to breakout with the 15-25 ranked guys being so far away.
The rankings are bound to look much different in that area. I would love a solid 1B prospect to break out though. For as much as 1B prospects being so common it hasn’t been true in the Rays organization, granted they haven’t really spent many resources in that area.
My "irrational breakout" pick is Dietrich. Love that guy.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 29, 2011 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think this is irrational at all.
If he can take a few more BB and keep his ISO above 200 in the FSL that would be huge and a great sign in my mind.
DD is a guy for me that needs to prove he can stay in the MIF
his power is great if he can stick, if he needs to move to CIF or COF than he needs to become a much more all around hitter.
It's very hard to be an above-average player at 1B.
Generally. those that are get grossly overpaid. The opposite is true of MIFs.
Exhibit A why the arbitration system is broken and Super2 is just ridiculous.
Having 45+ HR seasons will always cause for overpayment. Honestly I had never looked at his arb award and then the contract they negotiated after his $10MM Super2 Arb award.
Big slow pokes who don’t play defense don’t have it negatively affected and there isn’t a positional adjustment when it comes to arbitration. This makes it necessary for the Rays to go after players that are under rated in the arb process, and it fits into the overall philosophy of the Ray’s FO.
To be clear, I like Beckham more too
… which is why I voted for him to be top 5! But what’s his ceiling? Give a name or two.
Most optimistic ceiling I can see for Becks is Peralta. Most optimistic I can see for Malm is a lefty Konerko. I don’t see either reaching those ceilings, but Beckham’s odds are much higher.
As of now, Archer has 9 votes, Vettleson has 8, and Colome has 6.
We’ll wait a little longer to see if the voting spreads out. Archer and Vettleson will probably have to go to a runoff though.
Chris Archer over Vettleson and Colome?
Really?
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
If you think Archer just had an off year
Then sure, he belongs ahead. If you think 2010 was a fluke, then he doesn’t.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
serious question
What’s the argument for Colome over Archer? (I get it, and I can make it for Vettleson; I just value Archer’s total EV higher.)
Archer’s problem is his control; last year he walked 5.2 batters per 9 while striking out 7.9 per nine between AA and AAA. Colome — who’s basically the same age as Archer, I might add — walked 4.8 per nine at AA and struck out just 5.4.
Both have good-to-great arms, both have 3 average or better MLB pitches, both have been well-regarded by scouts, and both will be 23 next season. Both have the same weakness (control). The only salient difference I see is that Archer is a level higher ahead of Colome. So what’s the pro-Colome argument?
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 30, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
The K%/BB% numbers are even closer.
Colome: 19.0 K%/ 11.1 BB%
Archer: 19.5 K%/ 12.9 BB%
This is in a “down year” for Archer while a level higher and 3 months older.
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