What's the run value of good first base defense?

by Whelk on Nov 29, 2011 6:08 PM EST

Just the other day, MrNegative1 had this to say:

The Rays pride themselves on defense and run prevention. Matt Joyce may be able to handle the balls hit to him at first base but the nuances of the position will not be met. The ability to start a 3-6-3 double play, the 3-6 force out, knowing when to give up on a ball to his right and get back to cover first base, giving the infielders the confidence to just throw the ball without hesitation, the ability for pitchers to really fire the ball over to first on pick off plays, how to handle all bunt plays, and knowing when to cut the ball and when not to.

Generally, you can predict how good a player will be at a given defensive position by seeing how he did in one position, and then either adding or subtracting runs, based on the spectrum of defensive difficulty. These are based on some WOWY calculations by Tango, which are really cool. Basically, every player who moved between positions is graded, to see how he does at each of them. There is however, an obvious bias at work here. Players are usually only put into positions where there manager thinks they can succeed. I don't mean to put words in his mouth, but I assume MrNegative1 would contend that because of the selection bias, the first base specific skills he lists are out of the scope of WOWY calculations.

My question, then, is how many runs are they worth a season? Give your answers for each skill as the difference between the best first baseman (say, Albert Pujols) and a complete novice (say, Albert Pujols before he moved to first base).

The ability to start a 3-6-3 double play
The 3-6 force out
Knowing when to give up on a ball to his right and get back to cover first base
Giving the infielders the confidence to just throw the ball without hesitation
How to handle all bunt plays
Knowing when to cut the ball and when not to

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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I'd be interested in the breakdown for 1B defense.

With many opportunities a game to save errors from other fielders and fielding pick-off attempts it would be nice to see what a 1Bs defense truly has on a team. It is given credit for being the easiest position, but they also probably have the most opportunities to affect the game outside of catchers and pitchers.

As for the questions you posed I have no realistic idea of what the effects of each of those situations would add into the defensive 1B equation.

by jtmorgan on Nov 29, 2011 6:49 PM EST reply actions

I'd say

1. 3.0 runs
2. 1.0
3. 0.25
4. 1.0
5. 0.5
6. 0.25

by Ben Tumbling on Nov 29, 2011 7:05 PM EST reply actions

Hey Whelk

You are correct, I am not so sure that defensive metrics capture the 6 items listed. I also don’t know the overall value of each of them in terms of run value.

As I think I’ve pointed out, I’m a little more keen on overall defense because I’ve watched a very good defensive team in the Rays really limit manufactured runs against on my television while watching a team which gives up a ton of manufactured runs (the Indians) on my laptop.

Since 2008 this difference in defensive style has changed the way I view a lot of positions. I also have developed an anger response more on plays that should be made that aren’t than lack of range.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 30, 2011 8:47 AM EST reply actions

Interesting point about manufactured runs.

Assuming a smart opposing manager who understands game situation and run environment, being susceptible to manufactured runs could cost more wins than would otherwise be expected.

I also don’t have much of an idea about how much each is worth, but I generally keep to the philosophy that if it’s not quantifiable, it either doesn’t exist, or we haven’t tried hard enough. When I get a spot of time, I’ll go through the play logs for the Rays and Indians, and see if I can put a number on any of those factors for last season. If that doesn’t help, I’ll keep a running tally next season of double plays started and not started successfully, bad cutoffs, etc.

by Whelk on Nov 30, 2011 9:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'd bet that scouting departments

have this data on each team. I’d love to get a hold of one of their databases and see what type of report could be generated.

Anything worse than that ground ball to short to get the double play and out of an inning but he bobbles it throws to first to only get one out (Hopefully get one out) and the next guy up singles to score the run at 2nd with 2 out.

Ugh.

by MrNegative1 on Nov 30, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

It's hard to say

And defensive metrics measure 1B worse than any position on the field other than maybe catcher. I suspect that MOST of a 1B’s defensive value comes from his ability to stay on the bag and get the out on throws from MIFs that are a bit off, but the metrics, as far as I can tell, prescribe most of that value to the MIFs rather than to the 1Bs.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 30, 2011 3:41 PM EST reply actions

And I'll note that this isn't even mentioned above

But that’s part of the reason why a guy like Travis Lee was such a good 1B. He’d make 5-10 outs a year that otherwise would have been singles because either he was able to stretch out far enough to grab the ball just before the baserunner got there, or because he was able to get to poorly thrown balls while keeping a foot on the bag.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Nov 30, 2011 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

This is way more a charting project than a play by play project.

Here’s what I’m thinking for each game:
3-6 forceouts (successes/opportunities)
3-6-3 double plays (successes/opportunities)
Number of times a a first baseman fails to make it to the bag in time.
Close plays at first where stretch matters (outs/not in time/pulls off too early)
Short hop (scoops/bobbles)
Offline throw (outs/not out but stopped/extra base taken by runner)
Bunts to first base (out made/out not made)
Cut-off plays (correct/incorrect)

Thoughts? Tweaks?

by Whelk on Nov 30, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

It would be interesting

the data would be in a bubble because we wouldn’t have a league average to compare it to.

One of the great 1b arguments is between Mookie Wilson and Bill Buckner. Mookie insists even if Buckner fields the ball cleanly he beats him to first and Buckner says no way.

by MrNegative1 on Dec 1, 2011 8:06 AM EST up reply actions