Does Kelly Johnson Makes Sense for the Rays?
by jcmitchell on Nov 4, 2011 10:01 AM EDT
in Features & Analysis
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The Tampa Bay Rays are already set a few positions with second base being one of them. Ben Zobrist is one of the league's best second basemen, annually ranking among the top in defense at the position and among the top in fWAR at the position with a bat that holds its own in nearly any position.
With that said I still think there is a free agent out there whose main position is second base but still makes sense for the Rays.
Kelly Johnson is coming off of a season in which he hit a mere .222/.304/.413 and was worth 2.2 fWAR. Not a complete disaster due to his position and defense but not a great season and one that teams will look at and proceed with caution.
Johnson made $5.85M in 2011, his last year of arbitration and coming off his best year as a major league baseball player. But after the down year I believe Johnson may be a bit of a bargain and I see a fit with the Rays, just not at his normal every day position. Let me explain.
The Rays do a have some major holes to fill and I have looked at the options at those positions in my recent posts.
Shortstop looks more and more like it will be Sean Rodirguez's job to lose. First base looks like it can be filled via trade and catcher could either be filled via trade or a one year deal to a free agent like Chris Snyder or the re-signing of Kelly Shoppach.
The Rays really do need to add bats and that is where I see Kelly Johnson fitting in. But at what position? Well, it's not one particular position I see him in, but multiple positions I see fitting him in.
It has been six year since Johnson played left field but I see no reason why he still could not man the easier position especially since he is above average at a more demanding position. The year he played left field he was a spectacular defender with a +10.9 UZR in nearly 650 innings which equates to a UZR/150 of +18.6.
Johnson is also very capable of hitting left handed pitching with a career line of .287/.343/.465, something Matt Joyce and Sam Fuld are not.
Addind Johnson would allow the Rays to do a multitude of things. They could trade Upton and give Johnson the left field job against right handed pitching and let him play second against left handed pitching with Zobrist moving to right to give Joyce the day off. This would also allow the Rays to keep Brandon Guyer in AAA, which is probably better for him if he is not given a full-time job. It would also mean that the Rays could keep Rodriguez at short full-time.
It also allows the Rays to trade B.J. Upton to add pieces to first base, catcher, or bullpen. Or they could keep Upton and it would allow the Rays to use the designated hitter spot to rotate players in and out to give them a rest from the turf that many have complained about.
Johnson would still play second against left-handed pitching with Zobrist either playing right or first base and Johnson could play left field, right field, or DH against right-handed pitching. Heck, Johnson could probably learn first and play it on occasion.
Adding Johnson would give the Rays a 20+ homer bat that can steal 15+ bases with good on-base skills and solid defense wherever you plug him in. It would give the Rays the luxury to trade Upton or keep him and add a good bat without hurting defense. He makes sense for the Rays and I would love to see him playing for the Rays in 2012.
I made an error when writing this article. I accidentally used the projected Elias Rankings that had Kelly Johnson as a Type-B free agent and not the Type-A free agent he actually is. I still believe all options to be looked at but the Type-A status makes a big difference in the way I would have approached this article and the way the Rays approach free agents. I still look at Johnson as a good fit but a harder one to come by. My apologies to the readers for this error. -Jonathan C. Mitchell
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I must have looked at the wrong rankings.
I looked at MBTR’s and it had him as a Type-B when I started this article.
hey jc
even if a player is a Type A, I don’t think that should automatically remove him from consideration. The Rays management is so locked into any way of operating that is set in stone. They love defense but had every intention of landing Damon in LF for 2011.
Keep the imagination open all winter.
Agreed.
I like to look at all free agents but the fact he is type-A makes it much harder to picture in a Rays uni.
true
Type A’s are hard to picture, but remember, there is the old sign and trade provision later in free agency. If guys like Dotel and Johnson are hampered too much by the Type A designation a deal can be worked out.
I believe that became an issue a few years ago.
A free agent to help with middle infield would be a guy like Orlando Cabrera who can play Maddon style ball while filling in at shortstop and 2b. His skills are not what they used to be but I believe he gets hurt most by playing everyday and if a manager was good at really keeping guys fresh (see Joe Maddon) then Cabrera could be a nice fit. As would Omar Vizquel who the Rays should take a look at as well.
by MrNegative1 on Nov 4, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good call.
If we are going to sign a bench/platoon guy I would rather get Jamey Carroll. Will cost more but we know he can play defense and gets on base.
I like Carroll as well
these guys Vizquel/Cabrera/Carroll all bring good attributes to the table and can all hold their own at multiple position if allowed to stay fresh. Carroll has the most spring in his legs and is probably the most versatile.
I like the idea of Vizquel.
Wish they had jumped on Thome. I wonder if Aaron Hill could transition to 1B (depending on status)? Also wouldn’t mind Andruw Jones and at least taking a look at Willie Bloomquist.
Also, would it be worthwile taking a shot at a bigger name on a 2 or 3 year deal, if they would defer money?
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 6, 2011 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Given the choice
of BJ Upton or the freed up cash to look for 1b/DH/C help, I’ll keep BJ on the team.
Any move made that results in “ability to trade BJ” I’ll be against, not just this one.
Undestood.
But when looking at next year’s potential payroll it looks like the Rays will need to free cash somewhere. He just seems most likely with only one year left of control, making $7M+, and porjecting as only a type-B free agent.
I don't see the need to free up cash.
If Stu Sternberg has convinced the fan base or DRB that he can’t manage with a 55-60 million dollar payroll then he is one of the best salesman of all time.
If I’m sitting in the offices with the Rays today and put a probability on the Rays making the post-season in 2012 I set it on the high side >75%.
The Rays are a younger, healthier, and more complete team than either Boston or New York. There is a great opportunity for the Rays in 2012 to make additional revenue in the post season. If the team falls behind in July then they get the salary relief by looking to deal BJ/Shields/Zobrist/Price. So, the fiscal commitment only holds to 100% of salary if the Rays are in a playoff hunt.
Makes no sense to me to even consider any kind of salary reduction in 2012. None.
If a team wants to overpay for a player, of course Rays listen, but only if blown away.
So, you see the payroll going north of $50M? I hope you are right.
It was under $43M last year and we are already over that with next year’s projected arb raises.
Yes
I see the opening day payroll north of 50 million. I see BJ/Shields/Price all with the Rays.
I would be dejected if it turns out any other way.
If that happens, I just don't see that good of a team.
1b, catcher, SS, and DH are all HUGE holes. If every other posistion still hits well or very well, the offense will still be extremely limited. And with the way that the payroll sits right now, someone will have to be cleared to get a 1b or DH.
the same holes
were there last year and the team finished with a +90 win season.
DJ on the team from opening day.
Longoria not missing the first month.
Matt Moore strengthening the rotation.
DH isn’t a huge hole. Johnny Damon was fine in 2012 and could be retained for less money.
Overmagnification of the Rays needs is so funny. Let’s all focus only on the weakest parts of the team and ignore the rest. This team, as built today, is ready to compete in the AL East.
No, 1B and DH were not HUGE holes.
The team can compete. I just don’t see where you are getting the $$$ figures. Even if they do get Damon back for 2-3 million, they still have practically no money to get a reliever or two and fill the three HUGE holes. SS isn’t longterm, but 1B and catcher certainly look like it.
What the stat boys want is Fielder/Pujols numbers but a Kotchman contract--ain't happening
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I don't see that he can't manage with a $60MM payroll, but
His arguement for a new stadium is about revenue and if he bumps the payroll up $15-20MM (an almost 50% increase) next year he is making his position look weaker.
I hope his agenda doesn’t affect the resources of the team, but I also feel he might be planning more of a payroll boost from year to year over the next 4-5 years that’ll cap at around $70-80MM. Taking the savings today to be able to afford some of the key pieces for longer than we would be able to otherwise.
Because of this I expect a budget around $50MM but it won’t be a strict cap. If they find something they feel has good value it wouldn’t stop them from spending an extra few million up to around the $55MM mark.
very good argument
love the part about weakening his position due to stadium issue. Easy to overlook that dynamic. It doesn’t alter my position too much but I’d be remiss if I didn’t let you know that it’s something I never accounted for. Thanks.
That is why it has become apparent the Rays need to trade for a 1b.
They simply don’t have the money otherwise. So, if it Shields, Price, Niemann, or Daivs, someone needs to go.
Niemann/Davis/Archer
Two of them could be moved in separate deals.
Niemann could fetch a position player to help right now and not a prospect who needs finishing.
Archer has a high ceiling and is controllable. He could be dealt for a high ceiling controllable position player.
You simply can't get that much for Niemann, certainly not enough to fill one of those spots.
Maybe a Clint Robinson, but is he any better than Canzler?
Niemann has much value
he has performed well in what is known to be the toughest division in baseball. He has proven to be reliable enough to make 30 starts in 2009 and 2010 and 23 in 2011. He is a known commodity who is devalued in Tampa because he is not in the same pedigree as Price/Shields.
So many teams don’t have a Niemann to pair with their top 2 pitchers and spend 162 days trying to solidify a rotation.
He has value and Friedman will prove that to us during the winter.
Niemann has been a 2 WAR pitcher, which is solid, but not much more than that.
And while he has pitched in the AL East, he is also an injury candidate. Add in that he is projected to make 3 million this year, and he doesn’t look so good. I hope Friedman works his magic, but Robinson is as good as I think they will get.
What FA starters are better than Niemann/Davis/Cobb?
C.J. Wilson, Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, Hiroki Kuroda, and, uh… maybe Edwin Jackson?
Okay, now after four of those guys sign with the Red Sox and Yankees, I think you’re underestimating demand from the other 27 clubs that won’t be satisfied with signing, say, Fat Ass Colon to a multi-year deal.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm just not sure how much demand there is for a middle to the back of a rotation starter.
Teams like the Reds have guys who can fill that role; guys with higher upside who have issues.
Teams will overpay, but I’m not buying that they will overpay by a lot.
one of my hobby-horses
is the belief that free agency is always crazier than you’d imagine, and always causes sensible people to do stupider things than you thought possible.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
That doesn't always mean it will work in our favor.
And I don’t like the idea of hoping on a small chance.
I think you are undervaluing solid starting pitching. Not that Niems is totally solid, but look at what middle of the rotation starters with control years left have fetched on the trade market recently.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks, I'm too lazy too but I feel like that will be clarifying
And I definitely think WAR underrates starting pitchers who can go out for about 6 innings and put up bland results, but good enough to go out there 25-30 starts a year. Those results are MUCH better than what we saw Boston scrambling to do at the end of this season with Weiland, Lackey, Wake, etc. They would have killed to have someone like Niems as a 4th, 5th, or even 6th option.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
On second thought, I'll do something a little different.
It is impossible to track these trades. Anyone know a good way to sort out the trades and narrow it down to pitchers without doing it manually?
check out each rotation
as it stands in the offseason and slot Niemann according. Who do they have under contract already and how were they acquired. How many teams would Niemann not be at a minimum #3 starter…that’s where I’d start (at least what I’d like to see)
Okay, so here we are.
Teams where Niemann is not the #1-3 starter:
Rays
Red Sox (lol)
White Sox
Tigers
Angels
Oakland
Rangers
Braves
Phillies
Brewers
maybe Cardinals
Giants
This does not take into account FA signings, so this could change.
That is 12/30 teams that he is not top 3. So he is a top 3 on 60% of teams.
I still have trouble believing that
the Cardinals turned down one of Niemann/Davis/Cobb for Colby Rasmus in favor of two months of Edwin Jackson.
And look how well that turned out
2 months of Edwin Jackson = Championship
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Nov 4, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
you don't think Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis
could have put up 12 starts at a 102 ERA+ in the NL Central, followed by some crappy appearances in the postseason?
Sorry, that post should have been in caps.
EDWIN JACKSON LOSES WORLD SERIES GAMES LIKE A BOSS. REMEMBER WHEN HE GAVE UP A HR TO JOE BLANTON? LET’S SEE NIEMANN AND DAVIS DO THAT. THEY’D PROBABLY START IN THE AL PARK, BECAUSE THEY’RE AFRAID. AFRAID TO THROW MEATBALLS TO JOE MF’ING BLANTON.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Nov 4, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
what's that old line
“Never infer malice when stupidity will suffice?”
Ya I'm not a huge fan of the way fWAR calculates pitching.
When hitters get credit for what happened and pitchers are held to what their peripherals say they should be.
Lackey (1.5 fWAR) vs. Hellickson (1.4fWAR)
While both of those examples had luck play a fact into their results to some degree, I don’t think looking at them pitch you’d say they were about = in value.
we had a few interesting articles on here this year about Helly's ability to get weak contact based on IFFB%, so...yeah.
Not that that’s gospel or anything.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
wow, that's garbage.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand, bWAR for pitching you can almost predict just by the ERA since it's based on runs allowed.
Both approaches have merits and drawbacks. As Tango says, just take the average of the two.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 4, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
fWAR is better in general when looking at predicting future performance.
bWAR is better for looking at what happened. My feeling is when dealing with fWAR it gives too much of the credit to the defense for causing the difference in runs.
A blend of the 2 are probably needed to see what is expected to happen in the future though.
Correct.
But when looking if Pitcher X is someone I’d like the Rays to acquire, I definitely look at Fangraphs for that, especially with the velocity and pitch types on the same page.
by Ben Tumbling on Nov 4, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
going forward you expect John Lackey and Jeremy Hellickson to be about equal? (2013, but w/e)
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
There are definite outliers that will undervalue/overvalue certain skill sets by only looking at K-Rate, BB-Rate, and so forth.
No I don’t I was just pointing out how crazy it is in certain aspects. But looking forward I don’t think Lackey would be as bad at his 6+ERA, and at this point don’t feel Hellickson is a true <3ERA in this division. Also taking into account that Hellickson’s age allows him to improve his peripherals going forward and Lackey is on the other side of the aging curve.
your last point is mostly what I'm getting at, even without regard to 2011 results.
Lackey is going to receive TJ, which although has had very bright outlooks, he’s not coming from his prime and he’s losing a year. Hellickson was a top prospect, had success this year and I’m sure he learned. Hope he comes into 2012 with more velocity but I can’t complain about the results.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
plus, have you seen what qualifies as a SP
for 3/4 of the National League?
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Or for Baltimore for that matter?
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three-run homers."
by ThreeRunHomer on Nov 4, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You would actually trade Shields or Price for a first baseman?
1- Any first baseman returned for either of those two is or will soon be more expensive than Shields or Price
2- This team won 91 games and a playoff spot because of Shields and Price and with a Casey Kotchman at 1B. How many more games do you see us winning by removing one of them and how much better, numbers wise will the first sacker be than Kotch last year?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
So you would have us rather go with Elliot Johnson at 1b?
Because the way I see it, Kotchman is not going to be nearly as cheap as some are making him out to be. Same thing happened with Benoit last year. I know AndrewTorrez has been saying this two, but don’t be surprised when Kotch gets 3/18.
wasn't trying to be a pedant
just wasn’t sure who you meant. Nice target, way below the Yonder Alonso/Brandon Belt radar.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Benoit had an injury and blew everyone away with outstanding 2010 results.
Kotchman had putridity related to iPus, and blew everyone away with acceptable 2011 results.
Not a fair comparison, nor an accurate one.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The point was to show the craziness of the FA market.
Although the Benoit contract was not bad by the Togers so far.
The Rays could try going for it and hope that magic happens in those spots.
I don’t like the idea though. The lineup will look like this:
1B: ?
2B: Zobrist
SS: S-rod
3B: Longo
LF: Jennings
CF: Upton
RF: Joyce
C: Shoppach
DH: Canzler
How many runs can that lineup produce?
And this team costs 50+ million!
I don’t like the idea of trading Upton/Price/Shields, but they all have replacements ready. At 1B and DH, we don’t have replacements ready. So it is obvious that the Rays have to fill a hole while taking a small niche.
I think it's strange how CW has gone from
“BJ Upton is obviously gone” to “I think the Rays are going to keep Upton” in like 3 weeks.
I’ve said it before, but my guess is that the team trades Upton and one of Cobb/Niemann/Davis, unless some team comes forward with a blockbuster deal for Shields.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I still like Upton and 'spect to Marlins for Morrison or Giants for Belt
and Davis to Cubs or Rockies for Iannetta or Soto.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Upton doesn't really have a replacement ready.
He has Jennings that would be his replacement in physical location on the field, but then you’re really trading the production of Upton vs our 4th OF which is most likely a Guyer/Fuld platoon. While not bad, I think they could provide league average production from the position, that’s still a drop of about 2 Wins that need to be made up somewhere.
But there are a couple buy-low FA options out there like DeJesus
and Guyer has been putting up solid MILB numbers for last 2 years…doesn’t he deserve a chance at some PT?
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Guyer deserves an opportunity.
This is talking strictly from a what’s better for the 2012 Rays prespective nothing more.
I like some of the options like DeJesus and Guyer, but in terms of fielding a team around a rotating DH in order to give everybody more rest during the season. This in theory could make them freshser through the season and in the playoffs.
I would hope a Fuld/Guyer platoon could produce 3 or so WAR, which would put us in solid shape.
That would give the Rays around 7 million to make up the 1 WAR difference.
Ya, I think realistically.
Upton’s 4.0 WAR production vs the likley production of around 2.0 WAR from Fuld/Guyer making a 2 win difference.
While $7MM is a good amount of money I don’t see an upgrade it would make us afford that would make up that difference. Somebody might fall in price to the Ray’s range, but I wouldn’t make any bets on it happening.
well, the question breaks down to
-dropoff from Jennings’ defense in LF to Guyer/Fuld’s defense (which is, I think, none)
-dropoff from Upton’s defense in CF to Jennings’ (which is, I think, very little)
-dropoff from Upton’s bat to Guyer/Fuld’s bat (which I also think is very little)
I’m not convinced that those three negatives amount to $7MM+ worth of value, particularly given the difference between an $8MM first baseman and a $1MM one.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
A 1 WAR improvement over an inhouse option as DH?
I just think that’s a little bit high, but if he comes back for $2-3MM I like the signing and we could probably make fit within budget regardless.
Most likely a DH rotation centered around Guyer/Fuld platoon.
Joyce would probably be the one to see the most time to get Guyer/Fuld’s defense in the field, unless an infielder needs a day off.
I worry about Guyer's BB/K rates, obviously
But the dude can pretty clearly hit. He’ll be 26, so it’s not like there are serious service-time concerns or anything, and I don’t think he can magically learn to double his walk rate by heading back to Durham.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for the outside the box way to look at this.
Zobrist’s flexibility allows for us not to be pigeon holed into a specific positional need in regards to an OF to replace Upton’s production if he were traded.
Even if Johnson’s Type A status makes this unlikely it’s a different way of looking at things allowed by the flexibility of some already on the roster.
will he necessarily be offered arb?
made just under 6 mil in 2011. Looking at least 8 mil in 2012. Would make him 5th highest paid 2B in MLB for 2012. Just curious if that is a lock.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If he weren't offered arb it would clearly change things, but until then I'd assume he would be.
I don’t think it’s a lock, but the allure of draft picks or at worst a 1 year deal that can’t end up that bad is worth the risk.
Rafael Furcal
6 teams have contacted his agent indicating interest. I wonder if Rays are one of them.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2011 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
if this were a $75MM payroll team, I'd say yes
At $55MM or below, I think ‘no way.’ With the limited dollars available, the Rays have to figure out C, 1B, DH, and a piece or two in the bullpen. I just don’t see how you can fix all those spots AND give Furcal even a budget deal (say, $4MM), particularly given the nonzero possibility that he’s toast.
SS next year is going to be Brignac/S-Rod. If Reid stinks it up again, you might see the team make a change at midseason, but right now, I think they’re going to see if he can be an adequate bottom-of-the-order hitter. We already know S-Rod is a lefty-masher deluxe, of course.
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
1b
If we can’t add a 1b we can always slide zobrist to first
by gatrmf on Nov 4, 2011 12:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
ahhh... right out of the stat boys bible
ask the Rangers about defense at 1B
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
so you think having zobrist's defense at first versus a replacement-level defensive 2B won't be detrimental?
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
by all means not saying have an all bat, no glove 1B
Zobrist’s skill set is just better used elsewhere.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Same reason I'd be more likely to move Joyce to 1B.
Zobrist is already elite level defense at 2B, so might as well move an average defensive outfielder for a Guyer/Fuld platoon that will make up most of the deficiencies in his defense for the first year learning the position.
And going into the bargain bin who is to say the one that we end up with will actually be above average defensively. There will either be a question about the defense of the person or their offensive production in order for him to be on the discount rack. At least we already know what to expect out of Joyce’s bat. He may very well be a butcher at the position so we’d need the same bargain basement find as a fall back.
If the options available in the Rays price range has the 2B being better offensively than 1B.
It would be considered an option as long as the 2B is average in defense. It’s something that shouldn’t be totally dismissed.
Zobrist didn't look very good at 1B in 2010
and didn’t get even a single inning there last year. I don’t see it, even if you could make the math work (i.e., finding a bat at 2B that’s equivalent to a first-baseman AND worth the dropoff from Zobrist’s Gold Glove-level defense out there.)
by AndrewTorrez on Nov 4, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying it's a likely scenario but one as an outside the box could work in certain situations.
If a good 2B were signed though it would probably make more sense to put Zobrist in RF and trade Upton for salary to improve the 1B position.
So Zobrist 2012 1B is very unlikely just wouldn’t be ruled out entirely.
well, I suppose others on this site have advocated a juggling of sorts, just a little differently
Zobrist in RF, and moving Joyce to 1B.
by raysfaninminnesota on Nov 4, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point in time Joyce as 1B might be the best plan though from a long-term perspective.
Would solve our problems there for 4 years if we are unable to trade for a young 1B during the offseason. He’s athletic enough he can most likely make it work. Next year could be rough though. Rays can’t afford to go from season to season hoping they find gold in the bargain bin and not have any future with the organization.
zobrist at first
It has to be plan b if we don’t get a 250 avg 20hr 80 evidence guy. Which right now where are the rays going to get that guy. I believe that with his physical build and athleticism he could definitely be that plan b
by gatrmf on Nov 4, 2011 12:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think we're gonna see
SRod at SS and Chirinos/Lobaton/Jaso behind the plate in 2012. Maybe we can eek out a decent low cost 1B via trade for Niemann plus a pitching prospect, maybe. And beyond that, the only FA signings I can see happenining are a scrap heap type bullpen arm like Brackman or Wuertz and an oldster DH like Damon or Thome.
zobrist
OK so we trade bj then who could we realisticly get? There are just isn’t that much to choose from. I have thought about Joyce to first but there is zero info to project him there
by gatrmf on Nov 4, 2011 1:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The point i and a few are trying to make is this isn't the year to trade off higher priced players
Now if this is off season ‘13 going into ’14—that’s a horse of another color
Without a stadium deal in place it’s ‘katie bar the door’ Shields, Price, Zobrist, Longoria for starters—G-O-N-E
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
absolutely and fortunately for us fans i think Stu and Andrew get this, too bad some DRB posters see
Stu down on 4th and 1st with a squeegee cleaning windshields for nickels
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
hmm.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
This is the best chance. If Stu gives the ok to spend just a little, like in the $60M range, then this Rays team has a legit shot at a WS title in 2012.
At $60MM I like our chances.
However a $50-55MM could work just as well. It really all depends on what trades are available out there that have value. If we’re able to pick up an Alonso/Morrison type of 1B that would negate the necessity of a larger budget. It will all depend upon who is available and for what this offseason.
Really it all is in the other teams control what our budget needs would have to look like.
never trade zobrist or longoria.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless a big revenue source comes in soon, I forsee Zobrist getting moved at some point.
Longoria might be the guy they can’t afford, but will keep him around for as long as they possibly could.
Zobrist is signed for way too friendly a deal to be moved
Outside of a crazy package
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
Will all depend on payroll and how the team looks in 2014-15, and if there is a replacement in house at that time.
He’s already going to be 31 at the beginning of next season so he’ll be 33-34 and making a good amount. I hope they can are in position to still compete and can afford to keep him, but I won’t be holding my breath.
makes zero sense
he will never be worse than his contract unless he has a severe dropoff in production, and his versatility probably saves money by not needing defense-specific bench options. No way he gets moved, and if his defense remains pristine, maybe even a new deal/extension at the end of it.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he won't be worth it. Hell with his defense he only needs to be a league average hitter to be worth the contract.
It’s hard to project out to 4 seasons from now for a guy that is turning 31 at the beginning of next season. I doubt an extention is made just because of his age unless he just wants to stay in the area. It will all depend who develops through the system in the meantime or acquired through trades, but I don’t see it as a forgone conclusion he will be with the Rays through the end of his current contract.
I'm gonna say what needs to be said
There’s no way in Hell that we can pull in Alonso/Morrison/Duda with Niemann as the headliner on our part. Absolutely no chance. Ianetta either for that matter. Let’s put that fantasy to rest.
Ianetta shouldn't cost much.
He has 1 year of control since he can void the 2013 Option if he is traded.
Agree that Iannetta can be had for a package around Nieman.n
Also agree Niemann won’t get Alonso/Morrison but I would definitely say Niemann can easily get Duda. And I would turn that down if I were the Rays.
Niemann plus a backup catcher for Ianetta might do it
Jaso or Lobaton.
The Rockies have their own Chirinos (propsect with talent, but unproven potential) to replace Ianetta: Wilin Rosario. I doubt they’d want to gamble on Chirinos, but Jaso or Lobaton as more experienced backup catchers might do it.
2012 lineup
Jennings lf
Upton cf
longo 3b
Zobrist 1b
Joyce RF
Damon dh
Rodriguez 2b
Jaso c
free agent or trade acquired at as
Bench
Guyer of
Brignac mi
Lobaton/chirinos c
Canzler dh/1b
by gatrmf on Nov 4, 2011 4:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
2012 lineup
Jennings lf
Upton cf
longo 3b
Zobrist 1b
Joyce RF
Damon dh
Rodriguez 2b
Jaso c
free agent or trade acquired at as
Bench
Guyer of
Brignac mi
Lobaton/chirinos c
Canzler dh/1b
by gatrmf on Nov 4, 2011 4:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
What SS could we acquire that could out produce Canzler offensively if you put him at 1B?
Jennings lf
Upton cf
Longoria 3b
Joyce rf
Zobrist 2b
Damon dh
Canzler 1b
Rodriguez ss
Catcher c
Wouldn’t that offense outperform the other and be cheaper if you’re dealing with only inhouse options and resigning Damon on the cheap.
Joyce 1B, Guyer RF, Canzler DH/Bench call it a day.
this is assuming no trades. naturally.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll be disappointed
if the Rays don’t trade for a middle-of-the-order hitter this offseason.
What about LaRoche?
If Nats would pick up most/half of his contract.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Nov 6, 2011 4:51 AM EDT up reply actions
If the Nats sign Fielder, they will be looking to give him away
Could easily be an extra “throw in” an Upton deal with them. Upton and Neimann(or Torrez/Archer) for Norris, a decent prospect and LaRoche and 2-3 million dollars.
LaRoche at least gives the Rays a good bat, good 1st base defense for 2012 but a future catcher beginning in 2013. And they save about 4 million to add another bat/DH next year.
magicmark, why aren't you at ottotd.com?
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
dunno, been busy with work this week
and i kinda forgot about it
A true middle of the order bat or a bat that would suffice as middle of our order?
2 big differences I believe.
not if, when.
this is the rays we’re talking about. we only trade for spects and 5th OFs
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Rays are going to add a MIF'er I would sign Nick Punto
I don’t see any big impact bat available at a position that is basically covered with the Rays. He could very easily project as their platoon SS, 2nd baseman and fill in for 3rd. A rotation of Brignac, Zobrist and Punto gives Maddon of flexibility all over the IF. It allows Zobrist to get more PT in RF as well(where he may be best suited). While Punto is just an average hitter, he is a switch hitter, and is an OB machine(walks almost as much as he strikes out) who makes contact…something the bottom of the order desperately needs. He is the perfect type of hitter who can turn the line-up over. He has been averaging about a 2.0 WAR the last few seasons and the fact that he is very, good defensive player at all three positions fits in with the Rays system.
I think he could be signed for 1-1.5 million for a year or 2 years and 3 million. Solid player who would get plenty of AB’s and play good defense as well as give Lee two more years to develop.
god that's a miserable opinion. this is nick fucking punto we're talking about who couldn't hit in the NLC. rather take my chances with braniac.
I could care less about your graduate degree-I was a full professor at Harvard at 34 and am a full professor at Columbia now in a theoretical field whose main tool is statistical mechanics. So can can come down from your high place.
by Buzzy on Sep 24, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think a .278/.388/.809 OPS line last year in the NLC is too shabby.
Brignac plays one position and has to be platooned. Punto plays three positions very well and gets on base and would turn the batting order on a more consistent basis than Brignac. Replace him for EJ and you have a guy who can play somewhere in the IF 4-5 games a week, help the defense and begin helping fill in the “black hole” from 7-9.
Are you satisfied to use his 2011 stats
to project his performance next year? Looking at fangraphs, just about every positive indicator was significantly better last year than ever before. Is there evidence he has figured something out and will no longer be a negative on offense or should we chalk it up to a 166 PA anomaly?
I don’t know the answer, but absent some scouting reports that he has changed something to explain the leap in performance at age 33, I am skeptical that he is really an upgrade over what the Rays have. Watching him in the post-season, I did not see much to confirm that he has become a different player.
I think he is average ML hitter and don't expect much more from him..he is not a run producing bat.
But always seeing a lot of pitches per AB(4.21 last season) working a walk(his career rate goes up from no one on, to men on base, to w/RISP), having a career 91% contact rate on balls in the k zone is how a bottom of the order guy helps his team and turns a line-up over. Is he going to drive in a lot of runs batting 9th?…no. But he will put the ball in play and not be an inning ender. He could be just as successful as Bartlett was in that role. Plus I see him able to be more than just a utility player(far better than EJ) but being able to play regularly as well, either at one position or 4-5 games a week at different ones.
But more important to me is that he can do that while being an outstanding fielder at SS,2nd base, and 3rd base. Career UZR/150 of 6.9 at 2nd, 19.0 at 3rd and 18.1 at SS…almost equally at 2100 innings at each position. Punto has the attributes that the Rays value…defense, good eye, works a count and adds flexibility and at 1-1.5 million will come cheap. I think he would improve this team
So you'd prefer the Rays to replace Kotch with Barton
And sign Punto.
Defense is good, but they’re going to have to score runs, and some players are actually decent on both offense and defense. This would be turning the Rays into a worse offensive team, imo.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 6, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
I think the Rays need a big bat in the middle of the order more than anything
But unless they are to trade Shields for that bat(which doesn’t look like it will happen), they need to be able to put together strings of runs, wherever they can, all up and down the line-up. That will start with getting guys on base, moving them along and finding ways to drive them in with hits(if not HR’s), walks, ground outs, sac flies and the Maddon special…safety squeeze w/less than 2 outs. Not with hitters who strike out or pop up w/RISP all over the line-up.
Is it the preferred way of doing business?…No, but it is the next best alternative and when you have stellar pitching and continue to put out one of the best fielding teams(and improve as well), it may be the only way the Rays can improve this winter. I still think picking up a Barton)(if Kotchman leaves), Hanigan(re-sign Shoppach), and a guy like Punto is cost effective and fills needs, especially since most of those players that may be available are beyond the Rays budget this winter. Than add one good(if not impact) bat in the middle, like a Ryan Doumit or Jason Kubel, and hope Maddon has enough pieces to
Maddon has enough pieces to not only make another play-off run but take them deeper this time around.
If they can’t put together a consistent hitting team, than create a line-up where at least they can manufacture and score runs, from 1-9, when those opportunities present themselves during a game.
Punto demolished his career averages in 2011.
He’s not that good for anything but defense. He’s turning 34, and he can’t hit. He also usually doesn’t get on base the way he did in 2011. I’m concerned that you’re only focusing on last season, rather than his whole career. He was 50% above his career average BB%.
He was almost 100% over career ISO and WELL above his career wRC+.
He just set career highs in all of the above stats, as well as OBP, SLG, and had a career low K%.
As Bobr mentioned, this season for him was an anomaly.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 6, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
yeeeeep
I was thinking Scutaro, but maybe Bartlett’s a better comparison. Probably.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 6, 2011 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
*because he's so old.
He has little chance to maintain what he did.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 6, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that last season saw him put up numbers "across the board" that he has never done before.
And that may be an anomaly but he has had years when he approached the BB rate as recent as 2009(13.9), and had a .344 OBP a year earlier(w/.284 BA). But what if he was used the right way last season and he did(and could) continue to have a solid( if not career year again? Would he not be worth 1 million dollar to be the all around back-up IF’er(at the least) over someone like EJ? Just his defense alone at all three spots would be worth it?
And if Rodriquez/Brignac were to struggle at SS again or Longoria gets hurt again for a month or Maddon wanted the flexibility of playing Zobrist in RF, Rodriquez at SS and Punto at 2nd, would it not be worth it? Listen, he’s not going to make or break the Rays season but his potential upside, if he could come near some those numbers from last year numbers, he is a low risk/high reward, IMO.
Perhaps more accurate to call it
low-moderate risk/low-moderate reward. I would prefer to sort through other options before “settling” for Punto.
god no
Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t want Punto even having the slightest chance to become a starter for any length of time on this team. He’s 34. He’s not going to approach his numbers from this season again. This was all luck on a SSS.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Nov 7, 2011 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
canzler
Should have been up earlier. Rays really needed him to get more at bats. Definitely would have been nice to see what he could do. We could have spot started him at dh and 1b.
by gatrmf on Nov 4, 2011 6:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
In the middle of a heated penant race is not the appropriate time to test someone out at two positions where you're getting reasonable production
In hindsight it would’ve been nice but it wouldn’t have been worth the risk probably
by benderbrodriguez on Nov 6, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
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