The Rays Tank: Chris Ianetta Acquired By Angels, Bobby Ramos Not Resigned, And A Molina Correction
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 1, 2011 8:05 AM EST
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The Rays didn't make any trades or signings yesterday, but they did still make a bit of news. They announced that they have resigned the majority of their coaches for another two seasons -- yes, that includes Derek Shelton -- and that they have promoted some familiar names higher in their front office. Chaim Bloom, Erik Neander, and James Click all received some well deserved promotions.
The one coach that wasn't brought back? Bobby Ramos, the lovable teddy bear who missed the majority of last season with a number of medical issues. The good news is that he's healthy and doing well, and that the Rays might give him another job within the organization.
Remember back when Molina signed and I quoted some catcher framing numbers from Mike Fast's study? I adjusted them to the best of my ability, but Mike Fast chimed in over at Baseball Think Factory (see comment #46) and applied some regression to the numbers. Even if you only take 65% of the regressed scores - which Fast feels is the most accurate way to do so - Molina still looks like he's around two wins better than Jaso on defense alone. That's a far cry from the four wins I was spouting (whoops, sorry for being misleading), but it's still quite impressive.
MLB Chatter
So the Rockies traded Chris Ianetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood? I'm somewhat shocked that Ianetta was acquired for that cheap, and it suggests to me that the Rays weren't interested in paying a starting pitcher for one season of Ianetta. If they can manage to deal Wade Davis for Logan Morrison, I'd take him over Ianetta any day of the week.
So the 2012 Hall of Fame ballot is officially out, and Bernie Williams is the leading candidate among all the new guys. I love Bernie -- he was my favorite player growing up for a long time there -- but he's likely not going to get in. The interesting storylines with the Hall of Fame voting will be to see if Tim Raines gets much love, and how all the guys with steroid accusations continue to fare. Woohoo, more baseless steroid accusations!
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What am i missing here?
resigned the majority of their coaches for another two seasons — yes, that includes Derek Shelton
Specifically what Rays had below offensive expectations? Kotchman, Longoria, Upton, Zobrist and Jennings all did as expected or better.
Brignac and Jaso are awful and no hitting coach would help.
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Yeah, I tend to agree...I think the frustration last season at Shelton was more a product of the offense just not being that good.
It’s tough to find underperformers in that group, outside of Briggy and DanJo. And nobody has fixed Upton yet, so I’m not about to hold that against him.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 1, 2011 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
MrNeg made a great point about hitting coaches yesterday
I think he quoted Destrades who said, ‘as long as players continue to seek out the HC, they’re doing fine’ and that was the case with the Rays
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Taking a longer look at BJ's year, no way am i even thinking about dealing him
The void in the offense and defense w/o him couldn’t be replaced
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I'd trade him
if the Rays are not playoff bound or in a race in July.
I am going for it in 2012 and if that means that BJ at the end of the year walks away for nothing than I’ll just have to thank my lucky stars that the 2011 draft yielded 12 top picks.
Is it crazy to think that this Rays squad can really be special in 2012?
After he accepts 1/12 or you take the pick.
Unless the return allows you to more greatly improve the offense.
This:
The first change is that Type A and Type B free agents are going away. Only players who have been with their team the entire year qualify for compensation (looks like someone actually read Moneyball) and only players that have been offered a one-year contract by their team that exceeds the average of the 125 highest-paid players by the end of a five-day period free agent quiet period is subject to the compensation rules.
If another team then signs that player away, they will then lose their first-round pick unless it’s in the top ten (then they’d lose their next pick), and the team that lost the player will get a sandwich pick after the regular first round.
I think he turns it down, and if he does you get the picks. If he doesn’t you have him at 1/12 or you trade him.
No way he doesn't get $10MM+ for years.
He would turn down the 1/12 offer. In the BJ situation we could receive better compensation than we would have received since it’s highly unlikely he would have been a Type A.
2013 is a tough FA class
Bourn
Ethier
Hamilton
Hunter
Victorino
If I’m BJ, I try to get something done now with the Rays for a small extension or I go and bust my ass in 2012 to help stand out from the group.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
lol
There’s 2 CFs on that list and BJ is way better than one and probably as good as the other. Torrii freaking Hunter? You’re joking right?
didn't say he was worse than all of them
that’s just a big group of players on the market compared to what is out there right now
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
Besides, if the Giants have money, you know you can't rule out Sabean giving it to Hunter :)
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
We will get compensation for Upton.
Upton will not take a 1/12 or whatever the number ends up being. When average MI get $8/yr and get multiple years, somebody will give him $10MM+ for 4+ years since he’ll still be really young and a +bat in CF.
Exactly. He's a 3.5 win player (with upside) coming in to his prime.
He has the same career wRC+ as CC and will be a younger FA. Why would he accept 1/$12?
You don't feel Jennings could replicate if not exceed the defense in center?
Upton still grades out poorly overall due to the throwing issues and his he plays balls in front of him. I’ll take him covering 9 to 3 against nearly everyone not named Bourjos but his 3 to 9 area is not that strong.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Yes Jennings should replace Upton in CF.
But the arguement is Upton > 4OF which would replace Jennings in left.
Exactly--i thought that was pretty obvious but apparently needed to be spelled out
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
To add to this
which more desirable
Jennings + BJ @ ~$8M
or
Guyer/Jennings + ~$6M allocated elsewhere on the roster (1B, DH)
I’m a BJ apologist, but I also don’t see him here in 2013 and would rather trade him now as his value will only decline in season as a team is less likely to give up full price for a rental player that isn’t bringing compensation back now.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
at some point 'the future is now' philosophy needs to take shape--this is one of those times
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
If he has a repeat of this season, taking 1/12 may be his best option
He needs to take a step up after 2 rather identical seasons. If you’re going to trade BJ, you do it now. Since the player has to be with the team all season in order for the team to be compensated for his loss, a team acquiring him in-season loses that part of the deal making in-season dealing for final year players either less likely or the trading team gets less in return than they have in the past.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
flagged for disrespect!
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
are you putting a comma after chance? if yes it changes the statement
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5/50 seems rather low AAV for a player in his prime years, no?
He’s going to make over $7M this season so I have a tough time seeing a guy take $10M through his prime years. My scenario of taking 1/12 would be if he has a season somewhere between what he did in 09 and what he’s done the last two seasons. If he takes the step up that I expect him to in 2012, he should be able to pull in more than 5/50 at his age.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
But would he take that gamble in Tampa anyways.
Or would he decline and see what he could get for a 1 year deal that would be better offensively in order to make more in the future.
in 2013
I am more than willing to replace Upton with Jennings in CF. Hopefully, Jennings and all of us are looking up at a WS banner when he takes his position out there and B.J. played a huge part in it.
yes
that foot thing crushed Longo but once it was remedied his numbers took off.
Can we expect an MVP run from Longo this season? I’m looking for a monster season.
imagine if he
has a .321 BABIP in 2012 what a year he may have.
A lineup with DJ/BJ/Longo/Zobrist/Joyce/Damon as the top 6 guys would certainly be welcomed in 2012.
what I find interesting
Longo had a BABIP of .243 in the first half and posted a .781 OPS (.239/.321/.459)
He had a BABIP of .236 in the second half and posted a .907 OPS. (.249/.382/.525)
Once that foot problem of his went away, he was able to hit the ball with more authority
The BABIP profile is interesting because his G/L/F splits were nearly identical to the previous season and yet he saw and 84 point drop.
2010 spray chart
2011 spray chart
looks like he was a bit more pull conscious last season
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Pull concious
I remember one particular ball that was pulled down the line and cleared the Crawford Cutout.
Why anyone throws him an inside fastball these days is beyond me
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
you mean the one that sent us to the playoffs?
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Longo did?
Somewhat, but his final line wasn’t all too shabby. He came on quite strong at the end.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 1, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Outside of BA I think he at least met expectations.
Especially when you consider he missed a month on the DL.
I looked at performance vs pre-season projections
Its not as rosy as you paint. I’ll post it likely in January when I have time.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Chris Ianetta
saw some really ugly numbers outside of Coors:
In 2008 the splits were about the same" .893 OPS Home/.897 away.
But then off the cliff he goes.
2009: .965/.656
2010: .837/.574
2011: .975/.587
Not sure what his overall numbers would look like playing at the Trop but I don’t think it’d be worth dealing a starting pitcher to acquire.
From Buster Olney
Some executives convinced that there will be a lot of trade talk and deals at the winter meetings, because teams shying away from FA prices.
Being in the driver’s seat for starting pitching trades is a nice place to be
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
Rosenthal
said last night that if history is a guide teams should be opening up and spending quite a bit this offseason.
Owners are in a comfortable spot was his argument.
WAR perspective - Jaso vs Molina
Jaso has to hit around .260/.350/.370 to be worth 2 wins over Molina’s .241/.286/.344 career line. Very possible considering that’s close to Jaso’s career line.
the problem with Iannetta
is that he was the last catcher on the market (and R. Hernandez was the only semi-plausible FA catcher). So… unless AF gets very creative — always a possibility — we’re looking at an awful lot more Jose Molina than I would have liked.
I dunno, I'm excited about watching Molina play frequently.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 1, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
I love the idea of a bat-first catcher and then deploying Molina late & close
I hate the idea of watching Molina ground out weakly to short four times a game before getting exhausted in August because he’s on a path to start 130 games.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 1, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
four times a game? I'm sure he'll K at least a few times.
in all seriousness, he WON’T start 130 games, I don’t know why people are thinking this. We have Lobes, Chirinos, and the offseason is still young. Personally I’m fine with Lobaton/Molina and maybe Chirinos for an injury or later.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
if neither Lobaton nor Chirinos are killing the ball
and I don’t expect them to — then I imagine Maddon would default to starting the better defensive catcher, sort of the way Shoppach wound up starting a whole mess of games versus righties last year.
shoppach also younger and more durable, this is an older player we're talking about.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Still trading Shields for Logan Morrison?
http://tampabay.sbnation.com/florida-marlins/2011/12/1/2602704/logan-morrison-knee-injury-surgery
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I believe only the Marlins were advocating that kind of deal
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
My guess is this injury isn't all that serious, but it does seem to nix any of the Shields talk.
Wade Davis is much more likely.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 1, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
In all seriousness, thanks for staying interested this deep into the off-season
Site traffic was up 19% this past month over November 2010 and up 15% over November 2009
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
Lots more going on then in the past makes it easier
- The Molina sign and wait period
- Jaso / Lueke trade
- Friedman courtship
- Helly ROY
- Maddon MOY
Traffic better be up, if not it’d be real bad.
by ShawnTSA on Dec 1, 2011 10:42 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Actually..
the off-season strategy story & the Carlos Quentin piece had more traffic than the Molina signing & fell off just 6000 visits from October when there was still baseball happening
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
ahead of both, but not #1
The challenge of any team/sport specific blog is keeping the interest going during the off-season. November is the toughest overall month. Using the info sitemeter gives us, 87,565 for November 2011, 71,401 for November 2010.
The topics of discussion or activity may have changed, but we are still producing content on the site 6 days a week for your reading enjoyment rather than putting the site in cruise control and letting commentary do the work for us.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
HMM it's almost like the Rays are more active this month than in previous years?! If only there was an infographic to demonstrate this..
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
This was exactly my point, that gorgeous graphic yesterday perfectly illustrates it
by ShawnTSA on Dec 1, 2011 1:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Previously, the only signing in November was Percival
This month, we had a signing and a trade. It isn’t like the floodgates have opened. If people want to point to the news and not the content that is drawing interest in, that is there choice.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
the content's OK, but it's mostly link dumps that spark conversation. Nothing wrong with that, the offseason is pretty boring.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
The Rays Tanks are daily
But there is also a standalone post 6 days a week on the schedule – sometimes multiple. It would be very easy to put the site on a much lighter schedule given the news is tough to come by but the guys here are doing a great job in finding things to write about and discuss each week.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I guess, some of it feels a bit forced though. Like a topic yesterday about rule 5 draft eligibles when we had a funpost about it when the deadline occured.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Kevin's stuff is the farm system
That’s probably the toughest thing to do in the off-season. I know it’s a pain for me to do on my weekly fantasy minor league responsibilities at rotowire.
We also have the suggestion box if there’s stuff people want to see us write about but I don’t recall anything being dropped in there in recent weeks
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
how much higher is it than DotR Nov 2010?
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
420% higher
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
So opinion of the day, Jorge Posada
Who would take him as our DH? He wont be expensive, he’s desperate to keep playing and not retire and even the Mets said no thanks. Probably because he needs to be a DH. I will say that I prefer Damon coming back but if for some reason, Damon gets overpaid by someone else, who would want Jorge? I know Brandon Gomes would be happy not to face him anymore. I think those career numbers are 2 for 2 with a HR and 6 RBI
Under construction
if you take home batted ball data and put it into Tropicana Field
that doesn’t show altitude but at least 5 of his home runs last season are in doubt. He can’t hit from the right side any longer and he can’t really catch well either so that means a DH that you have to platoon making him a bigger roster liability.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
His road numbers were really bad in 2011 also
Would worry me a bit in PetCo East.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
Hopefully, Friedman has found his big bat to target
Because according to Topkin, our salary cap is going up and no, not just because of arbitration raises.
Under construction
kinda
#Rays payroll will go up from last season’s $42M, but, as their usual practice, there’s no set figure
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
From $42.0M to $42.01M!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 1, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Apparently the Blue Jays are pushing hard after Heath Bell
I hope they get him, it’d be nice having them run after someone else’s targets for once
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 1, 2011 2:38 PM EST reply actions
He's pretty good
After what they did to the Rays targets last offseason and then Rasmus, it would be nice to see them be continued shut out. They want Papelbon, that didn’t happen. They wanted Bailey, those trade rumors didn’t last long. Go sign with the Marlins, Bell.
Under construction
Big words that tell us nothing, that's our Friedman
Can’t have him, Houston
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/video-friedman-winter-meetings-plans
Under construction
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