Rays Community Prospect #8 Runoff

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 12:15 PM EST

The voting has come down to Archer and Vettleson. Archer recieved 9 votes while Vettleson got 8.

1. Matt Moore (100%)

2. Hak-Ju Lee (100%)

3. Alex Torres (53%)

4. Enny Romero (80% runoff)

5. Tim Beckham (64%)

6. Mikie Mahtook (63% runoff)

7. Brandon Guyer (50%)

Chris Archer: With a superb slider and fastball combo, Archer has very good stuff. However, his changeup lags behind and his command has been very poor. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=archer001chr)

Drew Vettleson: The Ray's second first round pick in 2010, Vettleson put up a strong year in 2011. He is an all around player with solid defense and a good bat. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vettle001dre)

A quick question the I will also add in the thread. If you were to go back to the 2011 draft, knowing what you know now, would you have taken Mahtook or Guerrieri with the Ray's first pick? Mahtook was voted in first in this poll, but it seemed more people were pulling for Guerrieri on draft day.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

+1

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 1, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by TBRaysfan009 on Dec 1, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by MakeitRayn on Dec 1, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by Whelk on Dec 1, 2011 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

+1

If you saw that I voted for Vettleson earlier, I changed my mind.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 1, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 1, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Also changing it to Archer here. potential is higher, floor about the same

by behn on Dec 2, 2011 3:43 AM EST up reply actions

I think you have it backwards.

by mr. maniac on Dec 2, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions

Archer could go to the MLB bullpen right now, and he'd be ok

That makes MLB bullpen his floor. If he figures out his walks and command, his two best pitches are reportedly good enough to make him a top of the rotation guy.

Vettleson has yet to play against upper Minor leaguerers, so it’s tough to say his floor is as high as Archers, but given it was, I don’t think he would become a 3+ WIN player, which is what Archer would be if he was top of rotation in Tampa. for him to do that, a lot of things would have to go right, and an above average year in the low majors doesn’t tell me that he’s a superstar. Major leaguer sure, but I wouldn’t go higher than that.

by behn on Dec 3, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

A 3 WAR player is not that high of a standard.

I would put Vettleson in my top 30 if I didn’t think he could do it.

There floors are not remtely near eachother.

by mr. maniac on Dec 4, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

+1

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 2, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

Drew Vettleson

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 12:15 PM EST reply actions

+1

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I have been voting Vettleson for like 4 rounds already and yet, it was once again not to choose the other guy (in this case, that would be Archer)

Nice farm system.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I can’t really explain it but I’ve never been high on Archer and this past season didn’t do anything to help that.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by jtmorgan on Dec 1, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

+1

No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.

by thedudeofdudes on Dec 1, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

+1

†††If you love Dan Johnson and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by mattc286 on Dec 1, 2011 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

+1

MLBdirt
DraysBay
Figure Filbert

by jcmitchell on Dec 1, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

Would you take Guerrieri or Mahtook higher?

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 12:16 PM EST reply actions

Personally, I would still take Guerrieri.

While Mahtook had a very solid showing for himself in the AFL, Guerrieri gets the slight edge for me. The AFL really didn’t do much to change my opinion of Mahtook, since he has already player well with the different bats in the tough SEC.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

The G-Man

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Mahtook, TG has a higher ceiling, but I'm not ready to put him over MM because of the lack of pro ball data

I know the AFL isn’t the be all end all, but it is something and MM was one of the best offensive players in that league sans the first week and a half.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

You are taking at SSS and making it an even smaller size.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

You put more stock in AFL numbers than the Rays ability to identify talent?

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

I put more stock in floor than I do ceiling with players that have such limited date for one

I’m sure the Rays had their reasoning for taking one guy higher than the other, but would you change who you like more if they had been picked the other way around. 23 teams passed on TG so forgive me for not calling a guy who hasn’t thrown a pitch at a higher level than HS a top 5 prospect in a very good system.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

It would absolutely change my opinion if we'd taken Mahtook higher.

How many more teams passed on Mahtook yet you rate him higher?

If you had stopped at the title, then I’d think you made a good point.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

limited data* for one I just realized I misspelled

the baseball draft is a little different than in other sports so I think that basing someones prospect status based on where they were drafted isn’t the easiest thing to do, especially with High School kids (see Josh Bell). That could make an even stronger point for TG being ranked higher. I’m not dismissing those who rank him high based on his upside. I think there are a lot better arguements than he was drafted higher though.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

I think when the same team does the drafting it tells a lot.

Especially if the college player was drafted second, and the guy taht was considered the tougher sign was drafted first.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

so under that line of thought how high do you have Brandon Martin ranked?

seems most have him below at least 3 or 4 guys drafted lower

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Once you get to those HS guys outside the 1st round I go bonus with some input based on scouting.

It gets hard comparing HS guys drafted a bit later because so many different things are in play.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

Martin was only taken 14 picks later than TG

is there really a huge difference in 14 picks

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

thats why i mentioned bonus. tg's was nearly twice as much.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

but it goes to show though with the baseball draft you can't just say

pick 24> pick 31

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

lol... ok

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

He wasn't saying that.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

it would absolutely change my opinion if the Rays took Mahtook higher

Were his words I take that as meaning the reason he ranks tg higher is he was drafted earlier and if they were flipped in the.draft he would have mahtook higher

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 4:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

that is why i like TG more. along with the other signs that the rays valued him more.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

At that point in the draft the Rays still had several very good options left, so the order they selected was important.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

does whether u r a position player or pitcher affect slot

Basically how much if any money did the rays save/lose by going pitcher/hitter opposed to the other way around.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 8:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Slot has several factors, mainly talent and leverage.

Pitchers and hitters have the same amount of leverage, and I am sure teams, when evaluating talent, give the nod to positional players.

The arguement you can make now (I’m playing devil’s advocate) is that Mahtook and Guerrieri recieved similar $ figures despite Mahtook having much less leverage.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

this is all just wondering now and bantering

because the 2 are almost equal IMO, but I wonder if the Rays were pretty comfortable thinking that Mahtook would fall to 31 with the teams picking behind them and they went with TG first because it would save them some money. If they got about equal with them going the order they did I imagine that Mahtook would have gotten even more had he gone 24 and I doubt they could have gotten TG for much less than they did, because he was a pretty strong SC commit, so he had a lot of leverage.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 2, 2011 1:57 AM EST up reply actions

The thing about that is then you're implying that the teams that picked b/w 24-31 liked TG more.

Which means more to me than what you, I, Keith Law, or some AFL numbers say.

by rglass44 on Dec 2, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

TG got almost 50% more money.

by rglass44 on Dec 2, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

really, to me there are two reasons you could argue for mahtook:

1. you value floor very highly
2. you value position players more highly than pitchers.

no one here has seen the two guys more than the rays’ brass, no one has better scouting reports, and pretty much every pre-draft report has tg>mahtook. all the helium we see from mahtook is due to his afl success. im shocked this happened:

Best SP prospect in baseball, and another top 10-15 prospect.
Guerrerri is probs top 100 as well as Archer. Mahtook may be top 100. Bex could see himself back in some top 100 lists. Think you’re getting spoiled by riches.

by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up actions

That’s awfully optimistic IMO
Not sure what the rate on guys drafted in Mahtook’s position making the top 100 without pro data but it can’t be great.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 5, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up actions

He’s going to the AFL, though.
by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up actions

Which started yesterday!
by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up actions

Even then, I really doubt it
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 5, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up actions

Just saying there’s a chance. He was rated really highly by the guys making the lists going in to the draft, and the AFL is a place where an offensive player can really turn heads.
by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up actions

By hitting crappy pitching?
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 5, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up actions

in good hitters’ parks. not saying the process is right, but it seems to happen.
by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up actions

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Wow, you predicted a guy would hit in the AFL?

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 1, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

if thats what you get from that youre dumber than i thought

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

i predicted he'd hit, and then people would foolishly overvalue that performance in analyzing his prospect status

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

...

Best SP prospect in baseball, and another top 10-15 prospect.
Guerrerri is probs top 100 as well as Archer. Mahtook may be top 100. Bex could see himself back in some top 100 lists. Think you’re getting spoiled by riches.

by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up actions

I guess you are part of “people” though

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 1, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

your reading comprehension is about as good as your ability to analyze ss prospects apparently.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

"in good hitters’ parks. not saying the process is right, but it seems to happen. by rglass44 on Oct 5, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up actions"

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

I thought you were saying YOU thought he would be a top 100 for you

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 1, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

oh no way. i dont do top 100 lists. i dont keep up with others teams prospects near enough.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

ill take that as agreement

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

i could see why youd think that based on the bex comment, but he never fell out of my top 100.

by rglass44 on Dec 1, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

fwiw I could be misremembering but I'm pretty sure I had the two even going into the AFL

and last time I checked the stats not every single prospect hit ~.400 for most of the AFL (after the ~.150 start) so yea I moved MM over TG because of the AFL. I don’t see that as a huge over reaction.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

Why are you cutting a SSS ever smaller?

I don’t get it. If you include the hot streak, include the cold streak.

I don’t believe his #s were over the top compared to the AFL though. I would guess they were around average, or maybe a little better.

by mr. maniac on Dec 1, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

MLB drafts aren't for need, I know

But man, Mahtook looks a stud on offense which is well…what we need and he doesn’t seem to lack anything, thats 5 tool potential in a position we will need someone soon (gonna miss you Upton) Well, actually, I guess we need Mahtook for LF since we have Jennings.

Wow, long explanation to say, I would of taken Mahtook.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 1, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

Guerrieri, but it's close.

I really like the overall package Mahtook brings long with being closer to MLB ready, but the potential in Guerrieri is hard to overlook.

by jtmorgan on Dec 1, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Guerrieri for me

He has TOR potential and probably back of the BP floor, barring injury. This is not a slight on Mahtook though. I think his floor is a reserve OF and his ceiling is an all star. Both of these guys could have been top 15 picks and were great value where the Rays took them. Personally, I like them both better than a guy like Sale who was a HS bat who only really had one plus tool in his power. Also, not a knock on Sale because I still think he can be really good, just prefer these two to him.

by ReyL on Dec 1, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

No HS pitcher, even guranteeing health, has MLB floor

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 1, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

yea I have him as a AA wash out as his floor

where as I see Mahtook as a 4A Justin Ruggiano/Dan Johnson (different position and skill set but dominates AAA but not good enough for the majors type) type as his floor this is why I like Mahtook more right now.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 1, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I guess floor wasn't really what I meant there.

I guess to sum it up better would be to say from the scouting reports I’ve seen, he has a fastball and breaking pitch that both are predicted to be plus. Even if he never develops a third pitch or harnesses his command, he could pitch in the back of a bullpen with just his FB and CB combo.

Same with Mahtook. From the reports I’ve read, he has good tools across the board, even if none are standout elite. I think as long as the reports are fairly accurate, with some expected improvement, he should be good enough to be at least a reserve OF. If he develops them well, we could be looking at an all start type of player.

by ReyL on Dec 3, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm.

I have to trust the Rays on this, and say that I would probably take Guerrieri higher, but I do wonder how much is that our valuation, and how much of that is our guess at the valuation of other teams. I mean, if we valued them exactly equally, but thought that if we took Mahatook first, Guerrieri wouldn’t be available in Mahatook’s spot, then Guerrieri should be taken first.

As for how we fans are perceiving it, I bet it would be different if we didn’t also have Moore, Romero, Torres, Archer, and Colome. I mean, we would probably rank Guerrieri higher, if he was perceived as our top pitching prospect, not our (arguably) sixth.

by Whelk on Dec 1, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions