The Non-Tender Deadline: What To Do About Howell And Sonny?
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 12, 2011 11:01 AM EST
in Features & Analysis
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PrintThe deadline for clubs to offer contracts to their arbitration eligible players is tonight at midnight, so we should be getting news at some point today on which players the Rays have decided tender a contract. Here's the list of arbitration eligible Rays, along with their projected arbitration salary from MLBTR:
David Price - $7.8m
B.J. Upton - $7.6m
Jeff Niemann - $3.1m
Joel Peralta - $2.0m
J.P. Howell - $1.4m
Andy Sonnanstine - $1.1m
Howell and Sonnanstine seem like non-tender candidates (meaning the Rays don't offer them a contract and they become free agents). The Rays non-tendered Howell last season with the understanding that they'd still reach a deal -- which they did -- and it seems likely that they'll do something similar this season. While he won't be terribly expensive through arbitration, the Rays could have more flexibility to offer Howell an incentive-laden deal if they don't go through arbitration.
Should the Rays want to bring Howell back? Definitely. He had a poor 2011 season, but he has too much potential upside to ignore. At the very least, he still showed an ability to mow through lefties last season (2.79 FIP), so he'd still be a useful part even if he never returns to being the pitcher he once was. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays tender him a contract just to keep him off the market, and then reach an incentive-laden pre-arb deal with him of some kind.
Meanwhile, this might be the end of Sonny as a Ray. He stuck on the roster this past season much longer than he should have based on his results, and he appears to have lost the ability to get major leaguers out (5.55 ERA, 7.09 FIP in 2011). Once he got demoted, he didn't even have great success in Triple-A; he struck out more batters (5.6 K/9) and lowered his walk rate (2.4 BB/9), but those numbers were still worse than he put up in the majors back in 2007 and 2008. He's not the pitcher he once was, and the Rays shouldn't offer him more than a minor league deal. Unless, of course, he does actually have compromising photos of Friedman stashed away...
Here's the full list of non-tender candidates across MLB. Any names jump out at you as potential buy-low targets?
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I say we tender JP.
Also Volstad is interesting to me as a possible bullpen option.
Kotchman is Fielder compared to him
0 homers last year, 0
How’s his D? Is he walks and nothing else?
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Barton didn't play a full season last year,
and from what I understand, his D is phenomenal.
He does a full splits when receiving the ball at first every now and then, IIRC.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
we started my main man Casey K last season, I can't see Barton's career #s leading up to this year being any worse than Kotch's were leading up to 2011.
that having been said, Kotch was also our back up plan last season. Just saying it could work out if necessary.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
yeah, I don't disagree with that
I just don’t see Barton as a viable Plan A for a team that has a chance to win the World Series.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 12, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
"We'll never make the playoffs with Casey Kotchman at 1B" - RJ Anderson, circa May 2011, whereabouts unknown
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
We almost didn't
Especially with Kotch’s disappearing act during the stretch.
by Ben Tumbling on Dec 12, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Ask Boston the difference between almost not making the playoffs and making them
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
The Frozen Yogurt Wars
Hit Newbury Street pretty hard IIRC
"It was a little weird seeing Ashley running at me with a closed fist. That was a scary look."-Matt Moore
by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 12, 2011 8:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Offer Upton 4 years and some options
Please Friedman!
Hey, you never know, at least I’m not crazy enough to hope for Price to get extended.
Under construction
Luke Scott
A little older than I’d like, coming off an injury, but can play 1st, some OF and DH. He’s a plan B if you can’t trade a SP for a 1B and are not signing Damon back for DH.
This makes sense to me...
You hope that he’s healthy, because if he is you end up getting real lucky with some nice production.
by Snarfalicious on Dec 12, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, I would like his bat.
Also, I’m pretty sure his personality could electrify the fanbase!
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
I am with you on this one.
Primarily as a DH though. I don`t think much of him i the OF or as a primary 1B.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
one of the few players in the league I don't want playing for us because I legitimately dislike him as a person.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
You know all the other Rays personally then, right?
That is sooo dumb
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
i care less about Scott's feelings on Obama and his birth certificate
my point is how does that affect whether or not he can handle DH as a Ray?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
the Lueke thing has been discusse to death and there's still a lot of mystery surrounding the events that happened the night in question.
there’s no mystery surrounding a dude who believes on the record that our president might not be an American.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
if evan longoria demanded to see the president's birth certificate i'd have the same opinion of him, old man.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
name cakking, just a guess it goes w/o a warning--speaking of Longoria
does Sternberg have the right to ask him why the items stolen allegedly inc pot and an AK 47 or is that ok?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
you called me dumb first. Hmph!
also, I have no moral qualms about “alleged” pot and an AK47. Gotta protect yourself in the warzone (AK) and deal with living in the saddest city in the US (pot), sooooo…
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
I have to agree on this one
he’s a solid bat, knows the ALE, has experience as DH, and won’t be expensive on a one-year deal. If the Orioles set him free, I hope we target him.
And I’d like to have the awesome duo of Lueke-Scott. The headlines will be awesome.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see Scott come in to DH
I’d also like it if we could get Keppinger and a 1B (maybe package Niemann and Brignac)
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 13, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Better hitter than SRod and Reid
swings to contact (which the team needs), not a great OBP guy, but career high in K’s is 36. He also fits Joe’s type of versatile player. I know he’s not a high WAR player, but he’s not a horrible player.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 13, 2011 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
He's the worst defender of he, Reid, and S-Rod by a bit, and he's a worse hitter than S-Rod (and hits from the same side).
But hey, “he’s not a horrible player!”
No
he’s not a worse hitter than SRod
Career BA / OBP / SLG / OPS
Keppinger 281 .332 .388 .720
Rodriguez .229 .307 .367 .674
Brignac .231 .272 .325 .597
Career Fielding % at SS
Keppinger .983 in 178 games
Rodriguez .952 in 69 games
Brignac .975 in 173 games
AB’s/K’s/BB
Keppinger 2074 / 142 / 155
Rodriguez 908 / 229 / 76
Brignac 650 / 165 / 34
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 13, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Sonny
The end of the road for Sonny is coming a year late, but the wait will now be worth it. The 84 mph heater will be gone forever. Agree with tender of JP, still think there is plenty left in the tank.
Interesting...
The 84 mph heater will be gone forever. Agree with tender of JP, still think there is plenty left in the tank.
You do know what speed Howell’s fastball is, right?
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
Around 86
I remember he hit 89 at one point last season and it was so shocking that Maddon said “you hit 89!” when he took him out.
89 is probably the speed of Matt Moore’s change up. His normal 86 IS Price’s good change up speed.
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wasn't Howell hitting 88 after the surgery and its different with lefties but yea the point is there
Sonny sucks for more than just his slow fastball.
I agree that they are both soft tossing pitchers but...
JP depends on wicked movement from his breaking stuff which when located correctly makes his stuff impossible to hit where as Sonny relies upon deception by releasing his pitches from different arm slots.
I think that the league has figured out Sonny while JP maybe able to recapture his “Magic”.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn't mind Ryan Theriot for some infield depth.
Nothing more than a minor league invite, though.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
Agreed. He would be an upgrade from EJ
by Peter Piontek on Dec 12, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
After actually looking at his numbers , you sir are correct.
Something had me thinking he was a better player.
by Peter Piontek on Dec 12, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm pretty sure that Theroit
was the toughest guy in the NL to strike out.
That would sure improve over Elliot.
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does he have the speed EJ has though
not saying he isn’t a little bit better but I’m not sure its enough to spend any money on but if he wants an invite why not give him.
Upgrade in bat, but not in field
Theriot is awful in the field and that’s where Helliot has value
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 12, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
What wrong with EJ?
People here seem to dislike him dis-proportionally to his role.
by Ben Tumbling on Dec 12, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
He really got to me when he couldn't bunt
Seemed to be one of the bigger reasons we would carry him. Welp, besides the lack of options.
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James Loney seems like our kind of guy
He underperformed with the Dodgers, pretty wide platoon splits . Plus, he’s looking at jail time. Win, win, win!
Use the force, Lueke
Loney would be nice
I think his power numbers would improve hitting in the ALE.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 13, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
I... is this some sort of joke?
I mean, I don’t think anyone has uttered the phrase “gosh, coming to the AL East should make you a better hitter” since the late 70s. But even if you get past that, the guy has had 2,500 plate appearances in which he’s slugged .415. If he was going to hit for power, don’t you think he would have done that at some point during the last four years?
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 13, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
I said improve , not blow up
he has decent left-handed extra-base power (doubles), which would probably play well in Fenway and Yankee Stadium and maybe Toronto and Baltimore. I’m not saying he’d hit 30+ HR’s, but possibly 20+….he knocks in runs, and he doesn’t strike out as much. Also, he has a decent glove.
BTW, his career SLG is .432, not .415…not great, but we need guys that can put the ball in play, not guys that K 120+ times.
by Blue or CONKZILLA on Dec 13, 2011 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
Ronnie Paulino and Jesus Flores are both guys that can help this team.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 12:17 PM EST reply actions
Jesus FLores wants playing time
I remember reading earlier in the season that Flores was complaining that he wasn’t getting enough playing time with Ramos starting. He then requested a trade. I am not sure TB will be very attractive to him.
Brewers just signed A-Ram
This could be the beginning of trading McGehee to Texas and Moreland to Tampa.
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Doesn't Prince Fielder have to sign first with Texas before any of the sort happens
by Ben Tumbling on Dec 12, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
No they wanted to put McGehee at 1B
And the Brewers just signed a 3B, I was thinking that’s how it would have to start.
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It would make sense for the Brewers to move McGehee to 1st i'd think.
by Peter Piontek on Dec 12, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
If the Brewers decide not to sign Pena, they seem to really want to give Gamel a chance
I can’t really blame them, McGehee was awful last year.
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I still have no clue why the Brewers don't do everything they can to ink Fielder.
by Peter Piontek on Dec 12, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I guess they simply don't have the money for the Boras FA
That, or they keep acting like he’s gone until they go ahead and sign him.
Under construction
Yet another reason to get rid of Sonny
His biggest killer, Ben Fransisco is back in the AL, even the AL East, he’s a Jay.
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Meet the new David "Ali" Price
When it rains, it pours?
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 1:20 PM EST reply actions
David really likes his mother
What the hell, make her the hitting coach in exchange for David giving us a discount on a long term deal.
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Anyone with me on Shoppach returning to the Rays?
How many catchers have been signed/traded and he’s still out there?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
at the right price I'm all for it
very curious to see if Wash tenders Jesus Flores though.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Do you think they want to carry 3 catchers again on the 25-man roster?
I don’t think that they would bring in Molina to mentor Chirinos and Lobaton and then send them both down to keep Shoppach. Maybe they could use Chirinos or Lobaton as a back-up for 1B?
If Paulino is NT as suggested then I would rather have him as opposed to Shoppach.
.330/ .385/ .475 career vs. LHP.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
meant as a reply to sternfan
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Still no catchers that hit righties if we do that.
You know, Chirinos held his own against righties when he was up here, he was kept back down because of his defense, not his bat.
Under construction
Molina has reverse splits I think
Not that he hits anyone very well
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
didn't chirinos break his wrist in winter ball?
Those are hard injuries to come back from right away and I wonder how much that takes him out of the equasion early on. Hopefully I’m way off and I’m thinking of someone else.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Nevermind, I see you're right
Well that wont help his case against the 0 options Lobaton.
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I was just looking at his stats
there are questions about his work ethic, but if Maddon and Co feel they can whip him into shape, or motivate him, then I’m all for it.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Manny Parra
Assuming he is healthy, I would like to see the Rays sign him to a minor league deal. Small sample and other caveats noted,
1. He strikes people out.
2. He throws ground balls.
3. As a reliever, his walks were down and his K/BB rate was over 3.
4. He is a lefty who can go multiple innings and even spot start in an emergency.
I am not suggesting he would be a major upgrade anywhere or even a critical piece, just that he could be useful and on a minor league deal is not much of a risk.
Full disclosure: I had him on my rotisserie team in 2010. I bid just $1 to get him thinking his big arm might make him a bargain. Although he did not help me that year, I followed him when he was moved to the bullpen and was impressed. I still think he can be a useful talent if healthy.
So he walks less
But considering he was hurt (I think or he disapeered) wouldn’t Torres be a better option?
Under construction
We have 7 very real pitching options
Do you see Alex Torres as a future SP for us? He’s 8th on the depth chart and could/should be passed by Archer this season.
Under construction
Heck yeah.
Trade the other guys. Torres won’t be hurt by another year in Durham. If Niemann is traded and Torres is moved to the pen, you have 6 starters. Then you are just a few inuuries (Davis has had injury issues and Hellickson is always a possibility) from having no depth.
"We have too many young, high ceiling arms so convert some of them to relievers" - joeybw, future baseball ops personnel
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
You're right, just let them all rot in AAA
I guess that was the plan with Moore before he was signed also.
Under construction
because these are the only two options, RIGHT!
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Or, Torres can be stretched out over a few starts like many guys are
And Archer should be close to or ready.
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I see it simply as organizational depth.
The Rays may prefer to keep Torres working as a starter. Or they may want to keep him in AAA to work on some things.
Having another lefty is not a bad thing. Suppose Howell does not return or return to form? Wouldn’t it be nice to have Parra at Durham-or competing in spring training to join McGee in the bullpen?
I watched him in Milwaukee
When he’s healthy he was more than adequate. As a reliever he’d definitely be worth a flier. Also, dunno what happened to Robinson Tejeda but he was a good set up reliever for a couple seasons in KC and then got injured and disappeared. If there’s anything left in that arm (he’s only 28 or 29), he’d be another MiLB deal to consider, with a spring invite.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Any thoughts on Casey McGehee as a potential 1B solution?
Texas is rumored to have interest in him as a 1B. Was a solid right-handed bat during 2009 and 2010, and then major slump last year. If Rays think he can rebound, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give him a shot.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 3:33 PM EST reply actions
Just bring back Kotch!
The problem positions were largely catcher, SS and middle relievers. They were absolute black holes. Even Damon was decent as a DH, probably the best one we’ve had from free agency. I think bring back Kotch and Damon. Sign a stud/non-rapist middle reliever, give Beckham a try, and hope that Molina is the difference.
If we trade for Bailey and just resign the 2011 hitters
Do you like that off season?
Under construction
I am not on board with this.
I believe that Damon`s skills are deteriorating and I would expect SOME regression from Kotch. I also think that Tim Beckham is plan C at best for this year. Of the three suggestions I am most at ease with Kotchman coming back but I hope that we could do better.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Dec 12, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that I want more offense, but only if it comes at the expense of a lower tier SP, i.e. Davis.
I don’t think that signing a DH or 1B prospect from outside of the AL East is a good idea. I think the Luke Scott signing would work.
I don’t know where else we are going to find a SS. Beckham has to be better than Brignac. Others are clamoring to keep Brignac, but he has to be on an extremely short leash. Beckham may be one of those players that excels in the spotlight. We need to give him a shot.
I should say
I don’t think that signing a FREE-AGENT DH or 1B from outside of the AL East is a good idea
If we can't swing a Alonso deal, I'm hoping we find a way to pick up Carlos Quentin
It may only be a one year solution and not the ideal long-term solution, but a power bat is a power bat.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
Beckham needs more time in AAA still too raw
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Dec 12, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Very Poor vs Briggy
Briggy is near elite, Beckham is avg at best
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Dec 12, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
The defense versus offense debate continues
we know which way the FO will go.
Defense because there's no evidence that Beckham's bat can get him a roster spot
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Dec 12, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
One glimmer of hope for Brignac is his .250 BABIP last year
Maybe that will change this year. What does .060 points translate to with regard to avg and WAR?
Please no.
There is so much wrong with that arguement. I would argue his BABIP should have been much lower.
S-Rod is gonna figure out righties this year and break out
He’s a better option than Beckham, at least IMO
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We had this conversation a few months back.
The consensus was that it may be too late for him to convert, but he really looks like a catcher. Not sure if he tried it and sucked.
He has the arm for it but I'm fine with Molina/Chirnos/Lobaton
Now that I think about it, both Chirinos and Lobaton seem to be made of glass, stay healthy, Molina.
Under construction
He was the emergency 3rd C for a few days
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Dec 12, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Looking at S-Rod a little closer
in 2010, his .254 average was supported by a .328 BABIP, but he has had below average BABIP in every other year. Brignac on the other hang has seen his average go down with his BABIP. Is there a change in the flyout to groundout ratios? I wonder if pitchers have just adjusted to induce one or the other. I remember Brignac and GIDPs going hand-in-hand last year.
Maybe Crawford and Brignac are like Hall and Oates…..
Looks like Rays and others will at least have a crack at Scott
danconnollysun The 3 ?s 4 tonight’s deadline: Scott, Bergesen and Jo-Jo Reyes. My sense is Scott won’t b tendered, but they’d like him back at lesser rate
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 5:26 PM EST reply actions
Non-tender Sonnanstine and Howell
Save about 2.5 million and more importantly, clear two spots off the 40 man roster(currently at 39) Bring back Howell(on a hand shake) later if wanted like last year.
Burke Badenhop is a Ray
A cheap option for the 2012 bullpen
http://miami.marlins.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=488674
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/badenhop-acquired-marlins
Can keep the ball in the ballpark
Allowed only one HR last year in 63 2/3 innings work. A contact pitcher but with the Rays defense that .265 BA against should be reduced.
5 HR in each of the two years before that
but still very solid numbers. Curious to see his home/away splits. Much better on the road. Wonder why.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
32nd among MLB relievers in FIP last year, better than Farnsworth
12th among all MLB relievers in GB% (min. 50 IP), better than Qualls, who some were saying we should sign as a GB specialist. Even at a 3.67 FIP last year (was a 3.47 in 2009), would still be better than Frank Francisco, Grant Balfour, or Huston Street.
Another excellent bullpen find by Friedman.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 12, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
Barton tendered a contract by the A's....Scott non-tenderd.
It will take a trade now to acquire Barton.
It will take about 6 million in arbitration to sign Scott. That is probably too costly for the Rays. The 1.1 million that Badenhop should get in arb. might take Howells’s spot in the pen.
So you're saying Barton is out?
Thank God. I threw up a little bit every time i heard his name mentioned as an option at 1B
by Peter Piontek on Dec 12, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
No, he's not out. But it will take a trade to acquire him at this point.
I prefer Alonso or Smoak but if it came down to re-signing Kotchman at 3-4 million per for 2 years, I would rather trade a B-C prospect for Barton and pay him 1.5 million for only one year. And I like Kotchman but the money(for the small value difference between the two) could be better spent, IMO.
A minor league deal would have made some sense but...
I’ll wager my season tickets that we would never ever trade for Daric Barton … Therefor i think he is out , which is why i said thank god.
by Peter Piontek on Dec 12, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
no word yet that the Rays have non-tendered anyone
would be majorly surprised to see Sonnanstine here next year, slightly surprised to see J.P. But we’ll see.
Well, I think Sonny will just be gone but JP will be like last year
non tendered and then re signed.
Under construction
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