The Rays Tank: Joe Maddon Loves The Hit-And-Run
MLB Chatter
The big news going around right now is that the winning bid for Yu Darvish has been selected, but we won't be able to know who won until contract negotiations finish next Tuesday. The Yankees and Rangers were apparently gunning for his services (and gunning hard), but from the sounds of it, the Blue Jays may have been the team that won the bidding. It's all just rumors at this point, but the Blue Jays supposedly put in a "whopper" of a bid.
It's unclear exactly how good Darvish will be in the majors, but Eno Sarris tried finding a major league comp for him at FanGraphs yesterday. His best guess puts Darvish somewhere between Jordan Zimmermann and Felix Hernandez....in other words, that's quite a wide range of possibilities. But even if Darvish ends up like Zimmermann, he'd still be a well above average starter.
If the Blue Jays do sign Darvish, that'd certainly make them a much more serious competitor in the AL East. I haven't crunched the numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they dramatically improve in 2012.
Rays Talk
Mike Fast from Baseball Prospectus tweeted out these tidbits yesterday afternoon:
Team with the most hit-and-run plays in 2011: Tampa Bay Rays just edge out the Cards and Angels. Yankees and Red Sox had the fewest.
It's interesting to look at manager evolution. The Rays have gone from a club who hardly used hit-and-run to top of MLB in space of 3 yrs.
Just based on my eye and gut, yeah, the Rays have done lots of hit and runs in recent years. Does this have to do with roster construction? Or do the Rays have some statistical reason for believing it to be the right strategy in many situations? Fast has piqued my interest now, so thankfully he's working on a long piece on the hit-and-run. We might just get an answer on this shortly.
Also, MLB has put together a committee to determine how they can handle international free agents better. There are all sorts of questions they are trying to answer, and Andrew Friedman has been named as one of the eight people on the committee. Considering how this issue could impact the Rays in a number of ways -- and the fact that the new CBA didn't exactly help the Rays -- it's somewhat comforting to know that Friedman will be helping shape policy on this topic.
And hey, there's an article on Burke Badenhop on FanGraphs. It's nothing too radical, but it does a good job explaining how he could be a perfect fit with the Rays' infield defense.
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Damon, Jaso, Kotch
all reliable for contact. Damon and Kotch replaced guys who were far less reliable. Jaso and Kotch are also major GIDP threats so their contact skill can help avoid that situation. Be curious on the batter breakdown, but I bet those three make up a disproportionate amount of HnR attempts.
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What you say could be true, but the Red Sox had many more DP threats than that and they were last. I think it's more a philosophy, rather than based on line up
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Its both.
The Rays are more progressive than most clubs. They had HnR talent so they HnR.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Agred. I think it was aboslutely due to roster construction.
This was one reason I loved having BJ in front of Kotch.
This is the point I raised with Fast as well
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 16, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
This. I think that we will never have a set philosophy, Maddon probably calls the motions depending on who is on the team each year and plays to their strengths.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
exactly. one of the biggest reasons he's so good.
Use the force, Lueke
by nomoredevil on Dec 16, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
exactly. one of the biggest reasons he's so good.
(Oh, how I miss these)
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Dec 16, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
While the quality of content is roughly the same, the fun just isn't.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
exactly. one of the biggest reasons he's so good.
†††If you love Dan Johnson and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††
This is the hard hitting analysis that has made this site great!
I haven’t crunched the numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they dramatically improve in 2012.
by el pibe on Dec 16, 2011 9:05 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Well, Deadeye...
Bad analysis would be projecting a team’s 2012 success with so much free agent talent still remaining out there.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 16, 2011 9:24 AM EST up reply actions
the pibe is his brother
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Haha, it was definitely wishy washy.
I’m not going to pin myself down on a position so early in the offseason and without taking a harder look. But they’re certainly a team to keep an eye on.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
You need to lighten up.
I wasn’t hiding behind “El pibe.” Everyone here knows that was me. Since when was giving shit to everyone here a problem…….. never mind.
Seems like you are little sensitive since the “Purge.”
RIP OTTOTD
It just came off weird, you have to admit that.
Your first comment on the site since the OTT exodus, and you make a snarky jab using an alt account. Not everyone knows it was you anymore.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
No problem, just figured I'd explain.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
I like you Steve, I really do
baseball, baseball, baseball, baseball, baseball, baseball, baseball,
RIP OTTOTD
Interesting happenings in Baltimore
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/baltimore-orioles-shake-up-scouting-department-121611
Duquette dissolved their pro scouting group
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 16, 2011 11:19 AM EST reply actions
#sayword
@Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
MIA continues to look for a starting pitcher, but not a free agent, in all likelihood; will look to trade for a Davis, etc. @LoMoMarlins
Yep.
I guess the new MLB Social Media rules are not all that tough.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 16, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
In our dreams
Marlins turned a Gio Gonzalez deal because the key part of it was Morrison.
Under construction
Rosenthal tweets Shields is out of Reds, everybody eles hands
Smoke screen or are we really finally going to break our under 30 SP rule?
Under construction
that is the tweet I've been waiting for, the moment I saw it I knew that one of the big 2 will be gone
yep, thinking the same way
Rays and Reds supposedly keep talking and now all the sudden, they stop and make it public knowledge? Makes me think they are about to make a trade.
Under construction
Meanwhile, on an old friend
Padres are trying to give Barty away and teams aren’t biting because his option for 2013 isn’t a team option, it vests easily. Sean Rodriguez > Jason Bartlett
Under construction
What's the biggest "Friedman'd" ever?
Because if we somehow pulled a Morrison for WD40 deal, that has to be high up there.
I mean trades, before everyone starts saying Evan/Moore extensions.
Under construction
As of now? Probably the Garza-Delmon deal.
That’s tough to top, especially when you consider the players the Rays got back for Garza in the end.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
The 2nd Kazmir deal was pretty mindblowing
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 16, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
Both Kazmir deals were remarkable.
The 2nd though might have saved this team from having to salary dump in 2010.
Getting anything back from Kazmir was a miracle considering what he did for LA after the trade and how much they paid him.
The first Kaz deal eclipses everything
People forget how good Kaz was when he was still good. And we got him for Victor Freaking Zambrano.
Use the force, Lueke
I think the 2nd Kaz deal might be better still
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 16, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
that's because it affected a decent team.
the first kaz deal brought the team’s best player for three years for an aging, getting more expensive average pitcher. kaz made the team worth watching for a few years, and then brought a pretty good return back.
Could more hit and runs actually be attributed to the Rays just running more than other teams?
We’re alway high up on the SB leaders and if a player swings does it count as a hit and run even if it was just the player’s decision to run.
I'm sure it does, there's no way to tell who made the decision.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Dec 16, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
There is no way for me to tell perfectly
Obviously I don’t have the clubs’ signs or a window into the players’ thinking, so it is impossible to get them all assigned correctly. There are some indicators from the game situation, though, that help me get around 90 percent of them assigned correctly, I believe.
But yes, some straight steals will get lumped in with hit-and-run plays because the batter swung, and some hit-and-run plays will get missed because the stringer didn’t mark them or they occurred in a non-traditional situation.
I believe I’ve got the bulk of the plays in the right bucket, enough to draw some good conclusions. I’m very confident that the Rays hit-and-run a lot more than the Red Sox, irrespective of whether the Rays ran more in general. I’m less confident that the Rays were actually ahead of the Cards and Angels, though I counted 57 hit-and-run plays for the Rays last year, compared to 54 for the Cards and 50 for the Angels. If I was off by 5 or 10 plays, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Look for the full article with more detail next Wednesday at Baseball Prospectus.
Thanks for the reply.
I really had no idea, and thought it could be a factor. Thanks for straighening it up.
It is a factor
I don’t think it screws up the numbers too much, though. I’ve revised my numbers a little since I tweeted about them.
The article is here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15713
I talk more there about how I determined the hit-and-run situations.
Fixed your OP
and the fact that I think the new CBA didn’t exactly help the Rays
(My problem is using the word “fact”.)
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 16, 2011 5:54 PM EST reply actions

























