One Last David Price Extension Post

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 3:36 PM EST in Features & Analysis

We've already gone over the extension scenarios for Price, Hellickson, Upton, Jennings, and Joyce (and been pretty pessimistic about most), but I couldn't resist passing along one last thing. When doing some research on extensions today for FanGraphs, I noticed a pretty strong trend:

Most of these pitchers are lefties, although not quite all of them. Still, notice anything similar here?

David Price would fall around the same level as Gallardo, Romero, and Lester, but none of those guys were facing arbitration like Price is currently. Maybe the Rays could offer Price something structured like Romero's deal, but raise his 2012 salary to around $3m? That doesn't seem enticing to Price -- he's projected to make close to $5-7 million in arbitration this year -- but this is the rate that many similar pitchers have signed at recently.

Then again, Price has been pining on Twitter in recent days about the prospect of getting traded. So here it is Price. Unless you want to get traded as early as next offseason, this is the general sort of deal you'd have to agree to. C'mon, what's wrong with guaranteeing yourself $30+ million?

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The way I see it

Price has to know he will make around 7 million this season

That doesn’t mean he wont take less in a long term deal. Give him like 4.5 but keep raising it a couple mil for 5 years. Get his arby out of the way and his first FA year.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 16, 2011 3:41 PM EST reply actions

Ya there's no way knowing he's due to get 7MM he signs something that gives him $3 this year and only guarantees him like $30 Million if it included even 1 FA year.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

Try this for Price

5 year deal

2012: 4.5 million
2013: 7 million
2014: 9.5 million
2015: 12 million
2016: 14 million team option/ 2.5 mil buy out

That guarantees him 35 million, could go up to 46 million. It’s not exactly a Matt Moore deal but it doesn’t cripple us and it’s not insulting to him. What does everyone think?

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 16, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Obviously we aren't going to get a Matt Moore deal.

But we also know what we’re getting more with Price and I posted below what I think could get it done.

4/$40 with 2 Options totaling $25 more

2012: $5MM +$2MM signing bonus
2013: $9MM
2014: $10MM
2015: $13MM team option/$3MM buyout
2016: $15MM team option/$2MM buyout

I think we could potentially swing it and wouldn’t cripple us as long as he doesn’t Kazmir out on us before we’re able to dump his salary. New TV deal should be done by the time his salary gets much higher than it’s already projected for next season.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry I failed.

4/$40MM with 2 Options totaling 6/$65MM

2012: $5MM + $2MM signing bonus
2013: $9MM
2014: $10MM
2015: $11MM
2016: $13MM team option/$3MM buyout
2017: $15MM team option/$2MM buyout

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

That would mean we have Price, Moore and Hellickson still under control through 2016

I think Shields needs a couple of years added to his deal.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 16, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

I actually prefer your first proposal of the two.

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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe it's the Rays colored glasses again

But I can honestly see Price taking that.

A lot of money guaranteed and he will be what when he’s a FA? Still just 31? 32? He would still be able to cash in.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 16, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Just trying to think from both sides on this one.

This one is really difficult because unlike any of the others Price is a Super 2 facing 4 years of Arbitration with a $7.5MM projected Arb1 salary.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

Ya just trying to look at reasonable solutions that might work within the Rays budget and be able to keep him longer than at most 2 seasons.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

But would still make sense from Price's perspective.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

And if he does pull a Kazmir on us

We can pull a Kazmir with him. His trade value isn’t going anywhere soon. He would have to be flat out awful for 2 straight seasons at least because if it’s just 1 bad season, well, look at Shields. Rays wont let him be awful for 2 straight years, they would trade him. I hope and would think AF is at least planning to talk to David’s agent.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 16, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

Ya, we got really lucky with Kazmir.

That could have crippled us if we waited any longer. Luckily the Angels were there to bail us out.

Anything SRod and Torres give us out of dumping him is pure gravy.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

The biggest problem is Price is facing 4 arbitrations so we should start more towards the Arb 1 salaries in those deals.

If you base it on the Romero (which would be really optimistic):

5, 7.5, 7.5, 7.5, 13.1 which would include FA1, but I think you’d have to raise each arb year to say 9, 10, 11, 13.

5, 9, 10, 11, 13 with a $2MM signing bonus seems like it could potentially get the deal done and maybe add another FA year at 15 at the end as an option.

Total of 5/$50MM w/ a $15MM option. I think this would be near best case scenario and I think could work in the Ray’s budget. He still gets $7MM this year (including his signing bonus) and the Rays get 2 FA years and he gets $50MM guaranteed. If the Rays wanted to try to make the $13MM an option that could also be a possibility and having him guaranteeing around $40MM.

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 3:48 PM EST reply actions

I'd be fine with something like Romero's deal...

If they kept the 13m option at the end still an option. So a guaranteed 30m over the next four years (starting at $5m this season), with a $13m team option for the first year of free agency.

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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 16, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

But guaranteeing him $30MM and giving up any FA year just doesn't seem likely.

Since he’s due about $7.5MM or so in arb this year * 4 arb years. Even if he has an injury he’ll never go down below what he gets this year.

The 4 years of arbitration cause the big problem here since it’s not taking away a minimum year (even though it wouldn’t have been minimum because of his MLB draft deal).

by jtmorgan on Dec 16, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

Price For Hosmer

With Moore ready for our rotation,would the Royals take Price for Eric Hosmer? They would get a #1 starter,which they don’t really have,and we would get a stud first baseman.

by MarkFidrych on Dec 16, 2011 4:53 PM EST reply actions

He'll just go year-to-year, and the Rays have no desire to do anything else.

He’s still cost-effective, and I bet they ha ve at least one person in the FO better at guessing comp. than we are.

by rglass44 on Dec 16, 2011 6:30 PM EST reply actions

If you use MLBTR's estimate of $7.8 and add 30% a year as if he stays steady, then he'd make a total of 4/48 over arb.

i dont see why hed sign less than that as worst case he prtty much will get 4/$34 if everything goes wrong. he’s already a millionaire.

by rglass44 on Dec 16, 2011 6:40 PM EST reply actions

You are never guaranteed money in arb., especially as a pitcher.

by mr. maniac on Dec 17, 2011 12:42 AM EST up reply actions

He's been good enough that it would take a couple of disastrous seasons before somebody would give up on his control.

The adding 30% a year is a little optimistic for worst case scenario, but he’ll get 4x whatever this year’s arb award is or around $30MM.

by jtmorgan on Dec 17, 2011 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

worst case was 4/$34.

by rglass44 on Dec 17, 2011 9:30 AM EST up reply actions

Pitchers are highly suspect to injuries.

I assumed you would catch that from my post.

by mr. maniac on Dec 17, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

Ya I know they're injury issues.

Just think he’d have to blow up this year and even then he won’t get a lower arb figure and will be given a couple shots to get out of it on potential.

by jtmorgan on Dec 17, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

exactly

by rglass44 on Dec 17, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

As a non-Twitterer, what do you mean he is pining

by playjoyce on Dec 16, 2011 9:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I was wondering about that too

What is going on with Price on Twitter?

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by King Billy Royal on Dec 16, 2011 11:39 PM EST up reply actions

After Moore signed his deal, he made a comment along the lines of, "When will the Rays give me a deal??"

It may have been slightly in jest…tough to say. And then yesterday he saw the results of the SPT poll where the majority of people would trade him, and he did a doubletake.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Dec 17, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

He was definatley partly serious

But he tried to mask it as a joke he said “When are the Rays gonna sign that David Price guy long term?”

And after seeing, the poll on the heater that fans want him traded most, he was saying things that basically mean he doesn’t wanna leave, masking it in a joke again.

I find a deal very unlikely but still more likely than Upton at least.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 17, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Same here.

Go Rays!

by Thermacold on Dec 17, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions

The time to get Price was after the '10 season--tough to do now

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by sternfan1 on Dec 17, 2011 8:07 AM EST reply actions

Actually the time was after 09

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 17, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

If he is going to sign a deal I don’t see why it couldn’t be something like: 4, 6, 8, 10, 12.
5 years for $40m. Average of 8 million a year. If David doesn’t think that’s good money then I dunno.

by IrishRay on Dec 17, 2011 9:19 AM EST reply actions

hed be taking a $3 million paycut this year.

by rglass44 on Dec 17, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions

When you think about it though

Pitchers are always risks and if he Kazmir’s on us, he wont even get that contract. It wouldn’t be easy to walk away from 40 million especially when you would be a FA again when you are 31. I would add a 14 mil team option but…dudes, we need a new stadium.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 17, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions