Baseball America Releases Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospect List
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 21, 2011 10:03 AM EST
in Tampa Bay Rays News
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Baseball America has just released their 2012 top 10 prospect list for the Rays, and there aren't too many huge surprises on the list. You can find the full article from Baseball America here, but here's a quick side-by-side comparison between this year's list and last year's list:
The players that are in green rose in the rankings from last season, just in case that wasn't obvious. Hak-Ju Lee was rated third in the Cubs' system at the time of last year's rankings, so his impressive 2011 campaign allowed him to rise even higher in the Rays' deeper system. Meanwhile, Chris Archer was rated as the Cubs #1 prospect by B.A. last season, so he's taken a slight tumble after seeing such little improvement in his control.
One of the most interesting parts of this list, though, is Tim Beckham's ranking. Remember how everyone was writing Bex off as dead in the water a few seasons ago? He's since "revived" his career and made it to Triple-A last season, where he had the gall to have a modicum of success (.325 wOBA in 111 plate appearances). He has lots of work to do still, but B.A. is giving him a lot of love this year by ranking him #7 -- up from around #15 last season. I tend to think that many of us are bullish on Beckham compared with the rest of the prospect world, but the Rays Prospects guys had him at #9 on their 2012 list. So maybe it's finally cool to like Beckham again?
But no worries, we have a new first round draft pick "bust" to argue about relentlessly: Josh Sale. He fell off Baseball America's top 10 list after a disastrous 2011 season in which he displayed little power in Rookie League, so I'll be watching his 2012 season a little bit more critically.
Anything else grab you about the list? I have a feeling Enny Romero's ranking is going to be a bit contentious.
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Archer surprised me
Stuff wise, it’s there but his command still isn’t showing improvement. Romero is in a similar fold, but he’s still in A ball and he also took a big jump in K% last season. He walked 14% of his opponents but also struck out 33% of them and gave up just four homers after the first month of the season in which he gave up five. Moving to the FSL this year could be a big year for Romero.
Pretty amazing that a guy like Torres that could be a 5th starter for at least 25 teams in baseball right now is still only the 4th best guy on this list.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 10:10 AM EST reply actions
That's where I have him in the pitcher rankings.
He has two very, very good pitches. That covers a lot of sins.
Sure it does
But when the decision comes to make him a power reliever, that’s a rankings-changer. I just have a tough time envisioning him as a starter right now. I watched him in early August and saw a guy that fell behind too much and couldn’t change speeds effectively. In another org (if he stayed with Cubs) they would rush him. Luckily here, he has plenty of time to work on things.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
But you say Torres can be a 5th starter right now?
Archer had a lower BB% than Torres did. It’s a lot easier to teach a guy how to attack batters and sequence than it is to teach them how to throw the stuff he has. He trails only Moore in stuff, and he is rewarded as such.
I'm not ranking Torres ahead of Archer in any capacity
but he also has 146 innings of work at AAA and has shown the ability to miss a lot of bats. Torres had a 25% K rate in Durham while Archer was at 22% there and only 19% in AAA. Plus, lefties typically take a little longer to get it together. I also have low expectations for fifth starters.
My overall point was that most orgs would love to have a Torres available to them to use right now while here, his best chance of making the club is in relief because the plague would have to strike the starting staff for him to sniff a start.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
I just have a tough time envisioning him as a starter right now.
That’s what you said about Archer. Yet you’re willing to say Torres could start for 25 teams. That was my point. Archer’s problem seems to be his sequencing in large part (see “falling in love with his slider”) because he is throwing too much of a pitch MiLB hitters have no desire to swing at. He has elite pitching tools, but he needs to refine them still.
giggled?
your better than that
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
his better than that
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
by pudieron89 on Dec 21, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I honestly don't mind any of the rankings becuase BA puts a lot of thought and effort into theirs.
I would have put Romero much higher, but that is because I am bullish on him.
Beckham seems a touch high (along with Archer), so I am interested in seeing what their reports say.
minorleagueball.com
There was a discussion you stayed out of. I wasn’t sure if it was by design or if you missed it.
YOU'RE THE ONLY TBEX EXPERT
AMIRITE?
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 21, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Bex at #7 is high
i could see a 9-12, but 7 is a bit much….that has more to do with the depth of the rays systems as opposed to bex flaws…i think he will be an ok player, but BA is being a bit too aggressive, IMO.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Well obviously it means their scouts either like him more than you do, or dislike the rest of the rays farm system more than you do
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
it may very well be both
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
His plate discipline at Durham scared me
People I talked to still like (not love) what they see overall though.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
It wasn't like it was any better elsewhere
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I thought he had shown improvement at A+ and AA levels.
According to the Cube, his BB% at Charlotte was 11.4 after just 6.3 at Bowling Green. It then declined to a so-so but still acceptable 8.3 at Montgomery before cratering to 2.7 in 111 plate appearances in Durham. At the other 3 levels, he had 537, 542 and 468 PAs respectively.
Also, his K rate showed some improvement as well. After a 21.6% at BG it rose slightly to 22 at Charlotte before falling to 19.4 at Montgomery. As with the BB rate, it got far worse (26.1) at Durham, but again in many fewer PAs.
Is there some other element of plate discipline that has not shown some improvement prior to Durham, such as O-swing or something else?
here you go
http://statcorner.com/batter.php?id=542921
At AAA, his swing & miss rate (MIS%) was 26% and league average is 18.5% so that’s a lot of empty swings and 29% worse than league average. His taken strike % (TkS%) is 39% when 31% is the league average which was 21% worse than league average.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I get that.
“It wasn’t like it was any better elsewhere”
Perhaps I misunderstood, but I thought you meant that his plate discipline was just as bad elsewhere as it was in Durham. Were his MIS% and TkS% just as bad in Montgomery and Charlotte as they were in his short time at Durham? If they were, then it is an argument that his poor numbers at Durham are not purely a matter of small sample size. But if he did better in his longer stretches in AA and A+, then while the Durham numbers are worrisome, they are still liable to doubt as representative of too small a sample.
this
and I’m looking at BB/K ratios of 0.50 and worse on the farm. Those are red flags for me.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Bex and Archer:
Scouting Report: Archer has impressive size and a quick arm that generates a power fastball/slider combo. His heater resides at 90-95 mph and touches 97 with run and sink. He loses faith in his fastball and falls in love with his plus-plus slider, an 86-88 mph offering with incredible tilt and good depth. He’ll need to improve his below-average changeup in order to remain a starter. He struggles at times to repeat his delivery, which leads to control issues. He led the Double-A Southern League with 18 wild pitches and ranked third with 80 walks in 2011.
Scouting Report: Beckham took a step forward offensively once he improved his pitch recognition and started swinging at more strikes. While he must continue to refine his approach, especially with two strikes, he didn’t give away as many at-bats and showed hints of plus power potential. He also displayed more mental and physical maturity and looked more confident. Most scouts say that Beckham won’t be able to stay in the middle infield because he has a thick lower half and fringy speed and range. He does have an above-average arm and has gotten more consistent making routine plays, but he’s probably going to wind up on an infield or outfield corner.
im gonna compare them to last year's when i get home.
IIRC, last year there was “no chance” he’d stick. now he “probably wont.”
hmm
I just had a vision of Bex at 1st base… stranger things have happened.
he would be such a great DH
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
disagree
“improved pitch recognition”, “showed hints of plus power potential”, “above-average arm”, “looked more confident” “displayed more mental and physical maturity”…I see a lot of positives in it. Not a perfect prospect, has flaws, but definitely lots to work with.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 21, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
oh not disagreeing
very much agreeing with you that Beckham still has a lot of potential tools.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 21, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Don't forget
BA is headquartered in Durham, so most of them probably see players who played there in person. That may help explain why they’re a bit more bullish (or bearish I guess) on a few of these guys.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
By cliff notes...
Please limit your copy/pastes to one or two sentences per player. BA charges for their material for a reason so exercise caution when deciding what to grab from behind the pay wall.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
From a Callis "Ask BA" last year post-Garza trade
Archer and Lee definitely would make the Rays Top 10 if we were doing it today. I wouldn’t change Tampa Bay’s top three prospects (Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings), but I would slot Archer in right behind them at No. 4.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
no very sad to see two #1 picks fail so badly before getting out of rookie league
who recommended these bums?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
they need to realize baseball is played in other places besides the great nw
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
all eyes on vettleson
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
indeed he did
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't Justin o Connor from Indiana?
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yes, he is
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Where'd Dietrich rank?
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
Sad actually
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Lack of power in the system
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Not good enough where he should be "the best" in the system
The lack of a potential 35+ homer guy (unless you really like sale or malm, but they both come with big question marks) is disappointing
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Dietrich is not sniffing 30 homers in the bigs
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
He might just look strong
I am sure he is better than Kapler but you can’t go by just that because Kapler looked like he could mash 30 homers. Does Canzler swing at the right pitches? Is he patient?
Under construction
don't speak ill of the BearJew
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
how many teams have guys with potential 35+ power in their system?
i cant think of many offhand. thats 80 power, dawg.
Projecting 30+ HRs for any prospect right now, outside of Harper, is ludicrous
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
that what i first thought when reading this
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
what about henry wrigley?
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Love how the 2015 lineup has Beckham at DH.
Haha! I understand they are trying to find a spot for him but DH? Thought it was laughable.
Put his fat ass in COF
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
not a scout
but watching Beckham in first the futures game and then the AFL playoffs, he sure didn’t look like a fat ass (“thick in the lower body”) to me.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 21, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
He's not done filling out
He’s 21 — let’s look at him again at 25
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Do people usually grow much from when they're 21?
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
not so much vertically
as horizontally.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
waistlines do
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
aren't you a depressed fecalpheliac on prozac?
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
i dont get your reference but it offends me
by rglass44 on Dec 21, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Mr Hanky the Christmas poo
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't disagree, and I think he'll probably have to be moved off of short in his late 20s/early 30s
but I strongly disagree with scouting reports that say NOW, in present tense, Beckham has a “thick lower body” or the like. He just doesn’t.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 21, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
giggity giggity:
The Future: Guerrieri has the potential to become a frontline starter, and the Rays have an impressive track record of developing young pitchers. He’ll probably open 2012 in extended spring training and make his pro debut at Rookie-level Princeton in June.
I’m pumped to see what the Rays’ development team can do with the highest touted prospect they’ve ever gotten.
David Price?
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
yeah. i guess i was thinking he was more of a finished product so to speak.
hard to express, but iw as more thinking like highest regarded teenager.
Only 1st round HS P ever drafted by the Rays
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Oops, Jason Standridge
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
woof
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 21, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
a glitch in the system, GradSchoolNole
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Of HS pitchers
Bobby Seay and Matt White were BOTH more highly regarded than Guerreri when drafted. Ancient history I know, and completely different organization, but just another of couple data points on the HS pitcher volatility chain. They turn into stars at the same rate as other pitchers, but still less likely to be decent than college guys.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Technically those players were signed after Boras got them to be FAs because of the loophole
But yeah, you’re right.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 22, 2011 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!!
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
I'm lovin the reports on my boys Dietrich and Bortnick
In fact i’ll go out on a limb here saying both will hit better than the likes of hak Ju Lee in MLB
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
if he keeps up his futility in AAA you can call him Hack Ju Lee
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Agreed
I love the BA prospect handbook. It is the best in the business in my opinion (no offence to Sickels).
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
You double postin today
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
can you hide it?
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
so im trying to think of a dec comp for vettleson's ceiling...
is jd drew a good match? good athlete. not huge. good power and patience with good contact skills?
hopefully with a better health track record
but that would be a excellent comp.
by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 21, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
No, you're just saying that because they both have "drew" in their names. Vettleson likely doesn't have that type of power
I think (healthy) Rocco is a better comp
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
its hard to draw the power comps because jd was in college at this age.
vettleson could add a bit of power. jd drew was 20-25 hr power for most of his career, and i could see if vettleson hits his ceiling he gets to that. thats why its a ceiling comp.
I'm suprised there is such a gap between Mahtook and Guerreri
I also like the aggresive ranking on Colome, Beckham and Torres (although I have him above Archer). This list is closer to my list than any other I have seen only real difference is Mahtook.
Yes, this is surprising
I would also most likely have mahtook higher and guerrieri lower but obviously I can’t say this with any sort of expertise
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
we've done this before, but guerrerri was drafted higher with more leverage and got a bigger bonus.
they also seemed to eschew floor for ceiling based on the way the pitchers in the top 10 are ranked.
that's what i noticed as well
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Awesome to see Beckham ranked so high up.
Just sayin’.
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 21, 2011 11:34 AM EST reply actions
Must stink...
to be Vettleson. A year later and they’re saying you have made no progress. You’re still No.9.
by raysbucsbolts1 on Dec 21, 2011 11:37 AM EST reply actions
that's not what the ranking means at all.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Agreed
IF, big IF with us, as we all know but if he is given a chance, Guyer is Joyce 2.0 and from the right side for 4 year running lefty problem, that would be a pretty awesome guy to have starting.
Under construction
I'm afraid I agreed first, in my head.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 21, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
There is zero chance guyer ever displays the outstanding plate discipline Joyce has
He will never walk that much unless he breaks out significantly, but plate discipline is hard to learn
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
that's true
but Guyer’s hit tool looks better than Joyce’s to me, so the OBP may turn out to be a minimal difference. I think Joyce is a fair value comp.
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 21, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
reeeeeeally hard to say that this early, and i disagree. though it'd be incredible if it was.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
As for value, I also think Guyer will have more defensively than Joyce.
This isn’t a knock on Joyce’s D, but I expect Guyer to be at least a +5-10 COF.
I do believe Guyer will be better defensively.
But it will take a lot for his bat to justify having a 2.5-5 run defensive difference I believe. I would love for him to be given an opportunity and step up so we won’t have a drop off when Upton leaves after 2012.
Agreed.
He should at least slide above Romero, who is in A ball!!!!
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 21, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
I guess I was just saying that because I haven't seen his stuff.
Also, I’m prone to pick the player closer to the bigs, if there is a tie.
I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta
by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 21, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
We really need a young 1B
Don’t say Malm! I mean someone close/ready to play.
This just shows it, 2nd straight year that they put Zo at 1B.
Under construction
A guy with a great fastball who sometimes falls in love with slider too much
They make Archer sound like Edwin Jackson, honestly.
Under construction
I've made this comparison before, I think it works
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
That would be awesome if it's the Edwin that left us
If Archer is the Edwin that pitched here then I hope we sell high early.
Under construction
The rays generally seem to discourage their pitchers from using sliders (price, ejax, garza), probably for injury reasons
But it seems they’re avoiding doing that with archer.
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, if they take his slider away
He becomes a right handed Price with a weaker fastball.
Under construction
which isn't a right handed price at all?
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
trading Archer
Wonder if this and other rankings will increase Archer’s perceived value as a trade chip
Edwin didn't have these control issues in the minors before he was called up
Then again, he wasn’t in the minors very long either. Once they sent him back down, he was all over the place
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Edwin was also a lot younger than Archer at the same levels
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Racist
Thats actually a really good comp though
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 21, 2011 12:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sign Beltran right now
Blue Jays and Red Sox are focusing all their energy going after Gio so sign him like….right now.
Under construction
I might be crazy but I was just thinking
why not go after Gio ourselves? He isn’t that expensive and we can move him next year. Would Davis, Torres and Beckham be enough? That would give us a 2012 rotation of Price, Shields, Gonzalez, Moore, and Hellickson with Cobb and Niemann still in limbo/trade possibilities for a 1B/DH?
WHY WOULD WE DO THIS
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
because it would give us the best rotation in baseball and put us in a great position to win the division
we need to improve the team and if a trade/FA doesn’t come available for a bat than improving the rotation with quality over quantity wouldn’t be such a bad idea.
i kinda like that idea
the rays have exactly what the ’s are looking for..pitchers with less than 1 year of MLB service time who are close to ML ready…its not to much of a stretch. Plus if that means the Blue jays and Red Sox dont get him its even more of a win.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
i think it's a terrible idea, you're sacrificing pitching depth for a position of non-need, all 3 players have tons of control left.
While I have a problem with the idea, it’d at least make more sense if you drop one of beckham/torres and put in a lower prospect. Both of them will be power reliever/ super util at worst, at least, that’s what I feel.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Dude, as nasty as that curve of his is, we don't need more pitching
Need a bat or 2.
Under construction
Would Davis, Torres, and Beckham be enough?
Ummmmmm…….no.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
what do you think it would take, I'm trying to figure out what the A's would want
maybe Davis, Cobb, and Beckham would be a better fit. 2 MLB starters and a C+ SS prospect.
Why do the A's want Davis?
They are trying to avoid adding guys coming on their Arb years. Also, I don’t think Beckham is viewed nearly as highly as you think around MLB. Honestly if you want Gio you start with Hak Ju-Lee and start adding significant pieces.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Davis wont go through arbitration
They would want him but we really have enough pitching. If we gonna trade a bunch of talent, get a big bat.
Under construction
"Coming up on their Arb years"
Davis isn’t that far off of his Arb years. Look what the Padres just got for Latos. I don’t think that the A’s intend to deal cost controlled Gio for much less.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
My bad
Well since he is getting more expensive the A’s still wouldn’t want him.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
aren't the A's looking for pitching and I don't think the Rays will trade Lee so maybe throw in another arm
so Davis, Cobb, Beckham, and Colome but that would be a lot to give up (it would depend on how confident the Rays are in what they could turn him into in a trade next off-season)
Just know 2 things
I just thought of that rotation and ok, I would do it. 2nd thing is, if I would do it, it’s not a smart move.
Under construction
The A's want PREMIUM talent
None of these guys have top tier upsides. Did you just see what Latos was dealt for? Why would they not want a prospect on the same level of Alonso? The Rays could get a deal done but it would take Lee and something. Too be honest, this a really bad match for a trade. The Rays don’t need pitching and the A’s don’t need the type of prospects you are offering.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
How am I joking?
I’m not saying the Rays should meet the A’s price, but you aren’t getting Gio for less then a great return.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Alonso is not premium talent
i dont know how anyone views this guy as a premium 1B…right now he is probably the 20th best 1B in the league.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying I love Alonso
I think I misused the word Premium. I should state that they want upper tier talent which none of these fake offers have had so far.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
dont start this
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
WAR...
how much does bex accumulate and how much does alonso accumulate if both of their careers are 10 years?
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I am feeling ballsy
i will take that bet. i think it will be the reverse…15 for bex and 20 for alonso….lets make sure to reconnect in December 2021. FreeZo I am counting on you.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
FIne, you are right over every prospect evaluator
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
bex>>>>alonso
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
I don't think he's calling every peice "premium"
He’s saying the Padres took the Reds best prospects, 3 of them in 1 deal and I think now that he’s out of Petco, Gio > Latos, so Davis, Cobb and Beckham would never get the Rays Gio. If we ever did that we would have to include Lee and others. Possibly Jennings instead of Lee which is why it makes no sense for us to even ask about Gio.
Under construction
Thanks
I’m just pointing out that it will take a lot to land Gio considering the large number of bidders.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
i agree
sorry if i was picking nits with your wording.
I think the best thing to do is look at the recent Cahill trade…
Davis and Cobb=Jarrod Parker
Bex=Colin Cowgill
and maybe Mcgee=Ryan Cook
= doesnt mean i think they are =.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
whats wrong with that?
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
me too
but im thinking its going to take both guys to get Gio, especially with Darvish and others off the table.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Gio is better than Cahill so they will want more.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
i agree
but i think cobb and davis are the exact kind of players they want SP’s with less than 1 year MLB service time…plus beckham is better than cowgill and mcgee is better than cook…so there other things factoring into this that help boost value
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
McGee > Cook
Parker can be a true ace, no one is predicting that for Davis or Cobb, I take the potential #1 over the two potential #3’s any day.
Also, Gio > Cahill
Under construction
in this scenario
I think the floor is higher with both Davis and Cobb than Parker because of injury risk and all that stuff.
McGee>Cook
Bex>Cowgill
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Do you make the trade?
That’s what I’m interested in.
Take into account that the package suggested can get you a really good hitter and while Gio is awesome, I still fear that we will give him and the rest 2 or 3 runs. We can’t go after him, no matter how awesome the rotations looks on paper.
Under construction
I do.
The Rays have a window to make a move and I think Gio puts them over the top and doesn’t break the budget…plus I think you can still get a quality bat. They have the depth.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Gio doesn't put them over the top.
We would have Price, Shields, Hellickson, Gio, and Moore. Essentially, Gio is taking Niemann’s spot.
Niemann is a 2 WAR player. So we are getting 1.5 wins and trading away several players who should contribute in 2012.
I disagree, you can't look at this one straight up WAR
adding a Gonzalez to the rotation helps a ton, the bullpen would be improved just by having a better starter and the offense with just a minor piece added would be more than enough.
There is a point here
Gio keeps going over 200 innings while Neimann keeps getting hurt so he makes the rotation even better and keeps the pen rested but I just don’t know, I want to find a masher, not that I can think of any.
I’m telling you, though, a Gio deal with at the least cost Lee, might cost Jennings and that’s not straight up, that’s the guy the deal is centered around.
Under construction
I don't think we would need to include Jennings but Lee yes the more I think about it
Lee, Colome, Cobb, and a 4th lesser piece. Leaving the Rays still with the ability to move Davis or Niemann for a Rizzo type.
i can't believe there is this long of a subthread about such an asinine idea.
Frieds doesn’t deal spects, let alone multiple ones, for PITCHERS when we have a pitching SURPLUS, and we need HITTERS.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
throw in an 'especially' before 'for'
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
the surplus is in quantity
why not deal it for quality, if the right deal doesn’t come along for a hitter. What is the point of having 3 or 4 back end guys for 1 spot when you can move them for another cheap ace. Heck if we can get the right hitter, why not consider maybe a 3 way deal with Davis/Niemann to help bring in spects if we don’t want to use all our own. I’m saying that if we can’t find the right deal for a impact hitter, which I don’t see out there why not add an impact pitcher to fill that #5 spot.
BECAUSE WE DON'T NEED MORE PITCHERS
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
would Gio not be an improvement over Niemann/Davis/Cobb/Torres?
we don’t need a RF but if we could have traded Shields for Bruce would you have done it. We need to improve the team and last I checked run prevention is just as good as scoring runs and adding a Gio Gonzalez would help in run prevention.
Good points Dbullsfan
The Rays are close to being championship level and any improvements they can make would be wise.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone on board with a Gio trade
Should also be on board with re signing Kotch and Damon because either we will decide to have no depth (our GM sorta likes depth) or we don’t have enough left to trade for a better option.
Under construction
I would be on board resigning Damon
I’d rather let Joyce/Zobrist play 1B and than let Rodriguez/Brignac/Guyer battle over the other whats left of SS and 2b/RF than bring back Kotchman. I could be wrong but I think someone will overpay for him.
I'm not a Rays fan
But you could do worse than resigning Damon.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Damon is fine
We can do better than Kotch or at least trade for a better future than Kotchman. So many 1B will be available, most likely during ST and Kotch….blah
Under construction
It wouldn't help that much.
And you would have to trade away a lot.
The Rays have room for a hitter, not a pitcher.
thanks for your contributions!
Go Rays!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 21, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Go Jays?
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
kindly leave
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
plus the A's have a terrible defense and the Rays have an outstanding defnse so Gio's numbers would immediately improve
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
His main issue can't be helped though
Our defense can stop him from walking people. I mean, in a way it could, if Hickey and Maddon convinced him to pitch to contact more often but he’s a strike out guy.
Under construction
what really good hitter is out there we can trade for
Ike Davis has been thrown around here but I haven’t seen him mentioned elsewhere, Trumbo/Morales maybe, but now word is Abreu might be the one to get moved? I would love Rizzo but I don’t think that is going to happen. There isn’t an impact bat to be had out there.
If we get Trumbo/Morales or Rizzo still, I do it.
But there have zero Gio to Rays rumors all off season.
Under construction
since when has a terrible idea ever stopped a rumor.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Youa re severely underrating a Davis, Cobb, Beckham, and Colome package.
Colome is in the top 75-125 range, with lots of upside. Davis was a top prospect who hasn’t done well yet in the majors but still has plenty of value. Cobb would have been a B+/A- prospect if he had 2 less innings.Beckham has value as a C+/B- guy.
What is Alonso? A B+/B guy?
I think you are severely overrating it
Colome is likely not going to crack the 100 list. Davis hasn’t been very good to date. I have never heard Cobb described as a A- guy and even a B+ is being generous. I like Beckham personally, but he doesn’t have a lot of love around MLB prospect evaluating circles.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
mr. maniac, adding constructive comments since OH WAIT
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
by pudieron89 on Dec 21, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I also just read that the A's want 4 prospects from the Nats
Two of which are Norris and Peacock so you can see that they aren’t selling low on Gio.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Rays package would probably have to involve Jennings
Eh, we never were going after Gio anyway. I had a pipe dream about Bailey but I know Gio will not be a Ray.
Under construction
I wouldn't say it would have to have Jennings
But he definitely won’t be cheap. Doesn’t seem like a good fit for either squad.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just trying to think of what we would be willing to give up or what they would accept
as nice as it would be to have him, I’m not sure we will give up what it would take although I would be willing to do it, even if it took Lee. I would love to see the Rays just go for it this year and I don’t think there is a bat out there that would be enough to put us over the top but adding a guy like Gio to the rotation I think would.
this also Andrew Friedman, he's not gonna pay prospects out the ass for a pitcher entering arb years either.
when you consider the GMs, the players, and the need, this trade is simply never going to happen.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
you only need 3-4 starters for a playoff rotation
I get that the Rays might not make the playoffs without improvements, but I’d rather the team made improvements that would be magnified in the playoffs (i.e., upgrading the offense) rather that minimized (i.e., which of Moore, Hellickson or Gonzalez heads to the bullpen).
by AndrewTorrez on Dec 21, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I would say Hellickson
having 4 aces in the playoffs would be pretty nice, and we can still try to move Niemann for a bat. Basically this move would be instead of signing an expensive (for us) DH
Split up the lefties so you get Price - Shields - Gonzalez - Hellickson - Moore
Yeah, it’s crazy good but we will still score 2 or 3 for them a game, it doesn’t seem like the smart move for us.
Under construction
would our offense really be worse next year
Joyce, Rodriguez, Brignac, whomever is catching should all be improved, Jennings will be up all year. Yes we lose Kotchman but that leads to more PT for Guyer (if Joyce at 1B), BJ is basically going to be playing for a contract so I’m expecting a better year from him, Longoria hopefully healthy all year. Even without a move we should be better offensively than last year.
Well, there are some fair points in there
Upton should finally be that monster we all keep expecting now that he’s in a walk year and Jennings will be up all year. S-Rod was my breakout pick but he has a lot to figure out, I really just see Brignac as a 2nd closer, bring him in for defense and Joyce is a good hitter but he is what he is, I don’t expect a jump to 30 homers.
Under construction
Really?
You’re gonna ignore all the Gio talk and complain about my one Beltran post?
Under construction
I was kind of hoping Oscar Hernandez cracked the top 10
I was hoping we could finally get a first hand scouting report on the legend. His numbers are just ridiculous so it would be nice to find out some more on this kid.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2011 1:19 PM EST reply actions
I'm starting to think no one really knows what to expect from him
There isn’t a scouting report yet except for “he was a monster and he is going to play in the US this year”
Under construction
yea he is a guy that is like a C* instead of C- or C+
he could go anywhere from completely out of the organizational top 40 to a top 20 prospect in all of baseball depending on reports and how he does in the US next year.
I'm saying that as a drastic celing just like I doubt he is out of the top 40
if he comes over and shows a big time bat (average and power) and ends up being a above average defender why not.
I have a hard time believing he will be that good
We don’t exactly roll out hitting prospects.
by Dome Biscuit on Dec 21, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Keep in mind Bill Ballew made this list
Ryan (Michigan): I haven’t heard Matt Sweeney’s name in a while. How has he looked? Is he still a prospect?
Bill Ballew: Sweeney has been a disappointment since coming from the Angels. The Rays had high expectations for him upon acquiring him in the Kazmir deal, but right now he does not appear to be on track for a major league career.
Sweeney got picked in the minor league rule 5 draft, he’s no longer in the org.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
(I added that last line. I don't think Ballew knew)
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Dec 21, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
bill bailew = luke bailey??
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
Interesting notes...
Over the last 6 years of BA Rays top ten lists(back to 2006) there has never been one catcher make that list. And you have to go back to 07(Joel Guzman) and (06) Wes Bankston to find a 1st baseman who made their list.
There has never been a 2nd baseman on that list since 2006, Brignac made the list every year from 2006-2010. And Vettleson and Mahtook are the first two OF’ers to break into the list over the last 6 years other then Dukes, Young, Ryan Royster, and Jennings.
While understandably, pitching has dominated the prospect list, since 2006, the organization has failed to produce their own players at certain positions.
Enny Romero
he should have been higher. if anyone wants to disagree with me just know I have nothing to lose.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
I don't know how close Shields going to the Reds was but it would have opened up a Gio trade
If the Rays could have moved Shields to the Reds for a similar package of Alonso, Grandal and a couple of other young prospects(not necessarily Volquez and Box), the Rays would have met immediate and future needs. It would have made it possible than to trade for Gio now by offering two of their best arms of Archer, Torrez, Colome or Cobb along with either one of their young OF’ers or maybe Beckham/Lee…all needs that the A’s seem to be targeting.
In addition the Rays could still keep Davis/Neimann for depth or trade one away for another need. And the 7 million owed Shields could then be used to acquire an impact FA bat as well.
I would keep Alonso and Grandal
and trade the other 2 pieces for another bat. Gio does make more sense if Shields was gone but we still have great pitching even if we lost Shields. Personally, I’m happy we didn’t though. I know the Reds paid a lot on paper but none of those guys are proven.
Under construction
i think that alonso is going to get forgotten in Petco
the guy has limited power as it is and in Petco he will make James Loney look like Mark Macguire…Alonso is foolishly looked at as a top tier prospect and in reality he is going to be a 25 year old ho has about 80 good MLB at bats…not worth Shields or Latos…
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Dec 21, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think these basically 3 way trades are going to have to be how something is acquired.
Our biggest trade chips, that we would actually consider trading right now, are pitchers (Shields, Price, Niemann, Davis). But to find a bat that would or could potentially make a big enough impact in 2012 those pieces just don’t really make much sense for any team. Why would team trade MLB ready impact position players for a pitcher instead of getting a Gonzalez or Latos when they can not hurt their 2012 25 man roster?
So a deal might involve moving pieces around whether it be a big move involving Shields/Price or a smaller one involving Niemann/Davis would be to trade for prospects that can either be flipped (or replacements for lost prospects we currently control that we can deal) for the bat we need. This opens up many more possibilities.
I don't know why teams don't show more interest in Alex Cobb
He looked very good in the majors last year, he has always been good in the minors and he has 6 years of control left, 3 at the minimum salary. You would figure more teams would want a guy like that.
Under construction
I think the surgery might scare them a bit and teams looking for more established pitchers at this point in the offseason.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see some interest increase later on if he’s looking good coming back from the injury.
But it's not that a bad of surgery for a pitcher
No one touched his arm. It was a rib.
Under construction
John Danks just signed for 5 years/65 million
Is that a good deal for David Price?
We may even get cheaper because he was set to hit the market after this year.
Under construction
4 FA years vs 1 FA year
I wouldn’t do it. Something around that figure for 6 years would be good if it included 2-3 options.
Personally, I think we can do it for 5/55 or 6/65, maybe team options but they wouldn't be cheap ones.
Under construction
5/55+1 or 2 options would be nice
Price is a lot better than Danks-so it makes hard.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Dec 21, 2011 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I think Danks got overpaid
So that helps. I do like 5/55 + options idea.
Under construction
Danks is overrated
Especially now that the Danks Theory is gaining traction.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Dec 21, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
He was interesting to watch last year
At one point, I really didn’t think he was going to win a game all season. I believe our first win was a game he started. It was a 9th inning homer and it was by….yep Dan Johnson, that was his other HR.
Under construction
Baseball America having Luke Bailey @ C and Beckham @ DH
makes me question their work. Not to mention Price, Niemann and Shields still in the rotation
Luke Bailey might not even make it passed AA
Chirinos would be better
by Dome Biscuit on Dec 21, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
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