The Rays Make A Run At Josh Willingham; Davis And Niemann On The Market
by Steve Slowinski on Dec 6, 2011 7:59 AM EST
in The Rays Tank
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We're only one day into the Winter Meetings, but it appears the Rays have already been busy on the rumor mill. Some of the rumors are old hat -- Niemann and Davis are both on the market, interest in B.J. Upton is mild, etc. -- but there's one especially juicy rumor out there. According to Jerry Crasnick and Ken Rosenthal, the Rays are making a "serious run" at Josh Willingham. They are one of the final three or four finalists.
Some of us here have lusted after Willingham for the past couple of seasons, as he is underrated and well above average offensively. He has never posted below a .350 wOBA over a full season, and he walks around 10% of the time with a large amount of power (29 HRs last season, .232 ISO). According to both UZR and DRS, he's slightly below average defensively in the outfield, but the Rays would be signing him to either play first base or DH.
Going into the offseason, it looked like Willingham would be off-limits to the Rays yet again due to his Type-A free agent label. Signing him would cost the Rays their first round draft pick, so he wasn't worth the investment. But with the new CBA agreement, Willingham was one of the lower rated Type A free agents that had their status change. He's a modified Type A, and he won't cost the Rays a draft pick to sign him. Game on.
The question is, how expensive will Willingham be? He's going to be 33 years old next season and is supposedly looking for a multi-year deal, and he made $6 million in arbitration last season (and that was before hitting 29 homers in 2011). He'll easily be a bargain, but do the Rays have the budget room to sign him for $7-9 million/year for multiple years? And if they do, how many years do you give a slugger entering his mid-30s?
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Willingham
In my opinion, he becomes the DH and 4th outfielder (which would move Guyer to Durham to start the year/until needed).
Johnny Damon probably doesn’t come back which I’d take Willingham at DH every day of the week.
It would be a very interesting move and would free the Rays up to seriously go after Alonso or another first baseman in trade with Davis or Niemann.
Odds on it happening would seem to be slim. Anytime the calendar is in early December and there are multiple teams interested in a player I don’t see the Rays coming out on top of the bidding.
When is the last time the Rays were the high bid on a free market player?
let alone December.
Kyle Farnsworth? How many offers could he have had?
maybe Pat Burrell
had to be bidding against someone in order to guarantee 2-years 16 mil but that was in early January.
Other than that, nobody I can remember.
Can’t recall how many teams were interested in Farnsworth but he wasn’t signed until mid-January.
But, as they say in life, there is a first time for everything.
Abreu as well
they had 1/8 on the table & he took a lesser deal with the Angels
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Dec 6, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
They do seem to be a bit more aggressive than I recall this early in the offseason.
1 FA signing, 1 trade.
It looks like they’re getting right to work and trying to hit their targets instead of just lingering and hoping something will happen, which is how last year looked to me.
But alas, the Jays already stole Mathis away in a sneaky deal (good lord, why would anyone trade for Mathis?).
Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!
by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 6, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I think they learned something from last offseason
There is still a time to be patient. But last year, especially with the ‘pen restructuring, they kept waiting for guys to slip through the cracks and we ended up with…well, we all saw it. It wasn’t terribly pretty.
Use the force, Lueke
Last offseason didn't go badly though
What would you have done differently?
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 6, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
the moment you utter the words "below average defensively" Willingham becomes a DH
if there are three teams in play, the Rays will need to offer $7-9 mil, which isn’t out of the question. I’d imagine nothing more than three years, maybe an option. But do we want a guy to sign through age 36?
they ahve cornered the market on below average players.
the giants are envious.
by James Westfall on Dec 7, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Right now, the Rays. The Indians have two options for 1B, Santana and LaPorta
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
But doesn't Santana make the infield look worse?
Unless ofcourse my impression of him not and LaPorta as not being good 1B defenders are not accurate.
oh for sure, but the point is they at least have players who
have a track record at the position
currently we don’t
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I'm just not seeing that Rays signing Willingham.
After the Burrell experiment, I don’t see the Rays committed the $$ to sign him.
That's ridiculous. Because the only high profile, high cost FA this granchise signs means
they never go that route again?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
there's more than just that
RH poor OF with old player skills. The comparison definitely makes sense. Burrell was actually a year younger when we signed him.
Also helps that Willingham has been in the AL
Mitigates the NL to AL transition, if a substantial criterion.
players age differently--some are done at 30, others still on the upswing at 32
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
no doubt, but they are very, very similar players.
burrell is with out a doubt the worse athlete, but they have an incredibly similar profile.
burrell’s slash-line through age 32 season: .254/.363/.475/.838
hammer’s career slash line: .262/.361/.475/.836
both are patient, PH-power hitters. both K over 20% of the time and walk over 10% of the time. for their careers, burrell’s walked more, but willingham’s really improved in that regard.
willingham should age better given that he’s the better athlete (former catcher, way more steals, better defender in the of), but the similarities exist.
his plate discipline looks about the same to me.
it does look like he swung and missed quite a bit more last year.
The front office does have the info (Hit F/x etc) and will use it
Trust the process I guess
by Ben Tumbling on Dec 6, 2011 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
some wait until they are 36
see: Bonds, Barry
by James Westfall on Dec 7, 2011 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
So tell me then, who have the Rays handed multiple years at 5+ million a year for since?
In interviews, Friedman has made it quite clear that he has learned from his mistake.
I’m not against it; I just don’t see the Rays taking the risk.
i can't imagine Friedman ever shoe boxing himself to the
point where he would never do that again
each case should and is handled differently
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Please keep Damon, you can't underestimate his locker room presence
and you’ve got a great LF platoon player/DH too.. Willingham would have to get in your DH spot most of the time – and Damon – and move out of the Fuld experiment, where Sam maybe playing some platoon work in left and maybe center. You still need a 1B. Pena would be my choice.
If Damon came back there is no way he would be a LF.
His defense was as bad as Willingham’s has been in the limited opportunities he received.
It wasn't even the routes (though, those were ugly also) as it was his arm
In fact, didn’t he once try to pass it to Upton to throw and even his toss to BJ came up short? You have Johnny in LF with a man on 3rd, he can crawl home if it’s hit to left.
Under construction
If Damon wants to come back
He can come back as a coach or on a low-ball deal. He’s not bad, he just isn’t the best option. I much rather have Quenton, Canzler, or Willingham.
Giants have a stacked pen and they will trade anyone but the bearded one
Trade for one of those guys, Alonso and sign Willingham and this off season becomes awesome.
Under construction
Although, the way they are progressing
We might be able to get Gaby for very little soon.
Under construction
You guys hear about the Nats being fixated on Upton?
I say we move Upton and Price for either Strausburg or Harper.
Get rid of wasted talent for hard workers, any day.
by BostonAnimeFan69 on Dec 6, 2011 1:40 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I don't trust strausburg
His size with that wicked fastball and he already has had a tj surgery…
by mooreCOWBELL on Dec 6, 2011 1:48 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I'd trust him over price
who hasn’t bothered to learn a 3rd pitch.
by BostonAnimeFan69 on Dec 6, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'd trust Strausburg to have more injury problems
who hasn’t bothered to learn a new delivery.
Hahah, I totally aggree^...
… and I actually heard we knocked the Red Sox out of the bidding with an offer. Now that’s saying something. I’d really love to see Johnny Damon get his 3,000th career hit in a Rays uniform but I see Willingham as an upgrade, which our offense, or lack there of, could really use. I also have a strong suspiscion that Albert Pujols will sign with the Marlins and we could get Gaby Sanchez for pretty cheap. Definitely an exciting time to be a baseball fan.
If AF is willing to spend 7 million for 3 years for Willingham, I would see if Carlos Beltran would take 2 years for 10 million.
That’s about what I think Beltran will top out this winter. Let him play upwards of 90 games in RF on the turf with plenty of time to DH(if needed). Get an impact bat to hit behind Longoria and still be able to get PT for Joyce in RF, LF and DH. Especially if AF us not going to upgrade the offense anywhere else this winter. And that includes the only move that he may end up doing with either resigning Kotchman(or a cheaper alternative like Barton, Overbay or a Canzler/? platoon…..).
If we can get Beltran for that much that's such a steal
I don’t think he’s much of an asset anymore defensively with his knee issues but he can still hit the ball
by benderbrodriguez on Dec 7, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
The reaction could be "Burrell II" but Beltran can still play RF and he would be able to slowly transition into the DH spot.
Burrell was automatically “turned into a DH” and that was the main problem, as he could never adapt to the role. Beltran would get most of his PT in RF(142 games there last season with no problems) but could plenty of days off (to DH and/or preserve his knees), creating the flexibility that Maddon loves. And if he did have to become more of a DH over the two years because of his knees, he may be better prepared to fill that role.
He definitely, can still hit.
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