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A Sign of Things to Come?

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In 2009, Rays fans watched the Yankees spend $423.5M to acquire A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira in the same off-season prior to the opening of their new palatial version of Yankee Stadium. This off-season, Rays fans are watching Jeffrey Loria, Larry Beinfest and crew making it rain at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas as they have already spent $142M to roster Jose Reyes and Heath Bell and have been rumored most of the day to be very close to adding Albert Pujols as well. Causation equals correlation, right? If the Rays ever get a new stadium, Stu Sternberg will own the winter meetings and buy the best of the 2017 free agent class and shock the press corps as Loria has done with his antics this week, right?

Star-divide

To say that Loria and the Miami Marlins are turning heads would be an understatement. When the Yankees signed their trio of free agents in 2009 to that sum of money. The team who already had a high payroll and had just been handed a $27M luxury tax bill went out and spent $423.5M to acquire the best free agents available and the script played out wonderfully as the Yankees won the 2009 World Series in the new stadium. In today's dollars calculating 5.2 percent inflation into play, the Yankees spent $445.3M to acquire the three players. To match that value, Loria and the Marlins would have to give Pujols a deal that paid him $303M over the life of the contract which seems unlikely to happen. Then again, the Marlins signing three premier free agents seemed rather unlikely just two weeks ago.

The funding for all of this is coming from a combination of the projections for the new stadium and as well as whatever money Loria said he did not have when he was able to convince local governments to pay for 80 percent of the new stadium as well as give him complete control of the parking garages for it. The funding model he has in mind calls for some rather aggressive attendance expectations considering the history of the market. Loria, in his own words earlier this week:

Loria expects his team will draw 2.5 million to 3 million at the new ballpark. "When you have a ballpark that seats 78,000, there's no great demand — and in the middle of nowhere in a football-configured stadium," he said. "But with a ballpark half the size of that and a baseball-only ballpark, you create a different kind of experience and we've seen it in our sales already."

Over 81 games, Loria is expecting the Marlins to draw on average anywhere from 30,864 to 37,037 fans an evening at the new park to help fund the payroll. That is a very lofty goal considering the Marlins have drawn 30,000 or more to a home game just 22 times over the past four seasons and most of those games involved visiting crowds coming to see the Yankees and Cubs play.

If we are to look at just the 2012 committed payroll according to Cot's and add in the AAV that Reyes is going to get (16.7) and the assume Pujols signs at $225M over ten years (22.5), the Marlins have a committed payroll of $97.95M for 2012 with just nine players under guaranteed payroll:

That number escalates to $99.45M in 2013 before several names drop but Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison begin their arbitration years at that same point as well. There is a large amount of distrust in the south Florida area after watching two former World Series teams be dismantled as quickly as they were built so the club is going to have to win and prove that they are serious this time about sustaining it. Spending upwards of $370M at the winter meetings is a nice start but the sustainability of it all will depend on keeping a notorious fair-weathered population interested for longer than the novelty season of 2012 when the Marlins get to unveil their new shiny toys.

Meanwhile, the Rays fans are left with a heaping dose of envy as the Marlins unveil a new convertible stadium and potentially three impact free agents. To the swindler goes the spoils.

Nate Silver compared the Marlins spending spree to the housing bubble of ten years ago. Given the financial acumen of the braintrust that run the Rays, it is tough to imagine them behaving the same was as the Marlins are if the stadium fortunes are to change for the club in the coming years given the volatility of the financing should the attendance projections fall well short of the model. What say you? Is the reward worth the risk or should the Rays continue to pay player for what they project them to be rather than for what they have done?

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In 2009, Rays fans watched the Yankees spend $423.5M to acquire A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira in the same off-season prior to the opening of their new palatial version of Yankee Stadium

In before pudieron

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 6, 2011 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

2009, when the Yanks paid out $420 mil, great year

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 6, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Great post and I really don't have an answer.

The Rays fan in me wants to see them pull a Miami Marlins spree if/when they get a stadium but I still want the money well spent. Wouldn’t mind them overpaying for one big player but not 3-4 and never a closer.

by jcmitchell on Dec 6, 2011 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

. . .
If the Rays ever get a new stadium, Stu Sternberg will own the winter meetings and buy the best of the 2017 free agent class and shock the press corps as Loria has done with his antics this week?

Sorry to be “that guy,” but this needs either a “, right?” at the end, or a “Will Stu . . .” at the beginning. Just keeping us on track for that pulitzer.

//shop: somedaythead.storenvy.com //twitter: @drewrolle

by drewtLtL on Dec 6, 2011 11:21 PM EST reply actions  

If the rays do go on a spending spree

they will probably spend the money on keeping homegrown talent home. Resigning Longoria, Price, Moore, etc. would be just as big as bringing in new free agents, and much more in line with the way I perceive the rays thinking.

by behn on Dec 6, 2011 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

Probably everyone on the team except Shields & Price right now, maybe Zobrist

Due to their FA years.

Though Longoria is dangerously close to being a 200M FA if money doesn’t show up soon.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Dec 6, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

that's stupid

Longoria’s going to be 31 when he hits free agency five years from now. Good luck predicting that market

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 6, 2011 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Pujols is 32

And finding a all-around 3B is harder than finding a 1B. If Yankees and Red Sox have a need, 200M is easy.

And A-Rod will be moved to DH at some point near the end of his deal. This could be the player that moves him there.

by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 7, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd argue that the Reyes and Pujols deals/offers haven't been idiotic.

The Bell one I’ll give you…that was ridiculous.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 6, 2011 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Reyes is a bit of a wild card but Pujols at 9/220 might actually be a FA bargain (if a 200M+ player can possibly be one)

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 6, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions  

That's what I never understood

Shorter contract for more dollars per year is better than all these extra years.

Just at least beat 25M/yr & you make Pujols happy somewhat.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Dec 6, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Yankees were in the bidding, no way in hell Pujols would go for that low.

$22m AAV would be a relative bargain…certainly a heck of a lot better than A-Rod’s recent extension.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 6, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

And they apparently do want to compete now. So it's interesting.

I’m still not happy with the move, but I can live with it.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 6, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I've been covering them way too much recently.

I can’t see myself watching the team much come the season (we’ll see I guess), but it’s made for an entertaining few weeks.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 6, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

It's exciting, isn't it?

If they get Pujols…man. Even without him, they still have quite the core there. Stanton and Reyes are gonna be fun to watch.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 7, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I go down every year for the Rays series, this will be the first time I'm going twice.

Even if they don’t make another (the other) splash signing, it’s an exciting group to watch.

Plus I want to see that rainbow/dolphin thing when someone hits a home run.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Dec 7, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

If Pujols does go to Marlins, do we go after Gaby Sanchez and if so, who do we trade for him?
If the Marlins do get Pujols to agree, they would look to trade first baseman Gaby Sanchez for a starting pitcher.

by Longorious on Dec 6, 2011 11:25 PM EST reply actions  

Colome is probably not enough to get it done given that there would be other clubs interested in Gaby too

Archer might also be sufficient although I think he might actually be more valuable to us than Cobb at this point given that Cobb will probably never be good enough to be a regular starter for us barring injury, and he doesn’t have the typical “dominant reliever” profile

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 6, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

However, I am still a bit partial to Cobb, but realize the probability of him contributing signficant time in the Rays rotation is slim to none. I do feel he will do well to the team he is traded to.

by Longorious on Dec 6, 2011 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Doubt it

People here really seem to overestimate Cobb’s trade value. Think like your average GM. Here’s a guy with so-so stuff who was never a top prospect. Sure, he’s performed, but since when is that what most guys actually look at. I’d be pretty confident in guessing that, say, Wade Davis has higher trade value to most teams than Cobb.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2011 1:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I disagree.

If Cobb was still a top prospect, he would be a B+/A- guy and a top 50 prospect.

by mr. maniac on Dec 7, 2011 8:54 AM EST up reply actions  

and Fle...

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 7, 2011 8:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Is he really above average as a 1b?

And at this point, I don’t think he has any upside.

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 7, 2011 8:02 AM EST up reply actions  

He's been worth 2.3 and 3 wins in his two full seasons so he's slightly above average

He showed marginal (but not insignificant) plate discipline improvements last year, and seems like the type of guy who has the Miguel Cabrera “body type” to generate some power. It’s obviously much more likely he follows the Billy Butler path and never actually develops this power but it appears as though he could do so

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 7, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I get your point

But I can’t let this defamation of Billy Butler stand!

Butler’s worst full-season SLG (.461, 2011) is better than Sanchez’s best (.448, 2010). Same trick is true with Butler’s worst full-season OBP (.361, 2011) and Sanchez’s best (.352, 2011).

Butler’s floor is a 125 OPS 1B/DH; Sanchez’s floor is a league-average bat. Butler is 3 years younger than Sanchez with a vastly superior minor-league pedigree. And so on.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

and base-running.

I don’t really like either of these players, but Sanchez’s career wRC+ is 113 and Butler’s is 116. Sanchez also has a good glove at first, is cheaper, and doesn’t kill you on the base-paths.

by rglass44 on Dec 7, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions  

miggy body type = fat

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 8, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Arb2, not Arb3

Though it’d still be a huge price tag

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Dec 6, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

So I wonder if Friedman is demanding Meseroco in any Shields deal

But will talk about guys like Alonso + a Juan Fransisco type for other starters.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2011 12:22 AM EST reply actions  

To answer your question, I would never want or expect the Rays organization to run the team the way the Marlins are.

All of these moves can backfire and there’re not finised yet, They still have no starting pitching to speak of and to get more its either expesive free agents/long term or trades that will cost them their good youg players.
Will Pujoles still be treated like the king and get everything that he wants? How long will he produce at this high of a level?
Will Reyes ever stay healthy? Ramiriz will either pout and quit or he will be gone too. 3 years for a closer at 9 million/year could go bad in a hurry. Hell Ozzie might blow everything up in the first year. There’re not finished yet so lets see what else they do. Win or lose they are going to need alot of money to sustain these moves.

This could turn out as one of baseballs largest irresponceable screwups in modern history.

by gjsor on Dec 7, 2011 2:06 AM EST reply actions  

I love the idea of spending it on your own core guys

Like Tulo for the Rockies and Braun for the Brewers, if we spent like the Marlins are spending we can lock up for a long, long time Longoria, Jennings, Price, Shields, Moore, Hellickson and if we get an Alonso/Morrison/Meseroco type, keep that guy around.

It just seems much more awesome to keep your guys that you drafted (or in like 1 case traded for) around for their whole career. Crawford left and I am wondering if there will ever be a career Ray (a real career, not a guy who was in 1 season and had 7 AB’s but only for the Rays)

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2011 2:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Could see a guy like Zobrist spending his career here

Likely will never become too costly for the rays because he doesn’t excel in the traditional measurements. Not sure what his contract status is off the top of my head, but I’d like to see him stick around for a while and I think it’s very doable.

by behn on Dec 7, 2011 7:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Meanwhile

The Marlins have already won two world series stocking up like crazy for a year and then trading most of the team after.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I would not like to see the Rays go on a spending spree

even were the money available. I like rooting for a team that makes rational judgments about talent rather than one that simply tries to buy up talent hoping to harvest the jewels. It is like a fisherman being so concerned with getting lots of fish that he throws dynamite into the lake rather than dropping a line. Where is the sport?

As others have said, extending home grown talent would be nice. And certainly it would be nice not to be hamstrung by a very low budget. What I would like would be to use the extra money to fill holes or supplement talent with good bargains-not in the sense of cheap contracts but in the sense of assessing needs and projecting talent properly.

For example, suppose the Rays had the funds this year. I would avoid Pujols, Fielder, Wilson and the rest who will receive multi-year offers and would hate to pay premium prices for a closer. But I might like the Rays to bid on Beltran if they could get him for 1 year or even 2 and a team option. In that case, should the Rays outbid other teams in dollars, perhaps paying somewhat more than analysis suggests he is worth, it would be ok. Even if it is a risk with Beltran because of his fragility, that would be fine. The upside combined with the possible uses in the OF or as a DH would make the risk palatable, and it would not feel like trying to overwhelm the division by accumulating all-stars on the hoof but rather like supplementing what the Rays already have.

And of course, with funds available, if Beltran flops, there would still be other options available to the Rays come the trade deadline, options not there with the current limited budget.

by bobr on Dec 7, 2011 8:07 AM EST reply actions  

It seems

the approach you want to take is the approach AA takes in Toronto. Supposedly has the money to spend but won’t get involved in the “spending spree” type of management.

by MrNegative1 on Dec 7, 2011 8:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Toronto seems like a nice model.

They have the financial flexibility to be a bit more aggressive than the Rays and lock up players, but they still play things smart and go for the value players.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 7, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions  

a blend of both

I’d like to see the Rays take the infusion of cash and lock up their superstars, but also be willing to overpay for the kind of elite talent they don’t have on the near horizon in their farm system. So, for example, if you had an extra $30-40MM per season to play around with, you could lock up Price, Moore, and Hellickson and still go out and sign Prince Fielder.

Yes, he’s going to be an overpay, and yes, he’s going to be a DH halfway through the contract and a likely albatross at the end of it. That’s the price of doing business in free agency. But in the interim he would fill a need that the Rays simply can’t fill anywhere else.

The one thing that I thought everyone — except the Dodgers, it seems — recognizes as stupid is signing a bunch of $8MM guys.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 10:12 AM EST reply actions  

Huston Street

Padres get Street (and pay his full $8MM salary) for a PTBNL.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 11:05 AM EST reply actions  

I want the blend also,

but I don’t agree with this statement:

“But in the interim he (Fielder) would fill a need that the Rays simply can’t fill anywhere else.”

I read a review of Hendry’s tenure in Chicago, and one point made struck me. It said his weakness was that he would identify a need and then focus on a specific player to fill it even if it meant overpaying or creating more inflexibility rather than considering multiple options.

Of course, the Rays cannot match the performance expected of Fielder by signing another first baseman (besides Pujols), but that does not mean they can’t improve the offense in other ways, and do so enough to make signing Fielder superfluous. There might be upgrades at multiple other positions or using current players differently and signing someone to fill in elsewhere or any number of other possibilities. I think one of Friedman’s strengths is that he does look at numerous ways to solve specific problems.

by bobr on Dec 7, 2011 11:17 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

with a $100MM payroll

you could do all three — expand the offense in the same, creative, low-cost ways the Rays have been doing, AND keep your home-grown superstars (Price), AND massively upgrade at 1B to a 1.000 OPS guy.

Free agency is subject to the winner’s curse, but for truly limited commodies (1.000 OPS hitters, ace starters, etc.) it strikes me that the inefficiencies are actually significantly less than for your 95 OPS+ innings-eating starters, closers, etc.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't done the math, but I will accept yours and don't disagree with anything you say.

I simply don’t want the team to hand out lengthy contracts to players we anticipate will become albatrosses for the last few years. It just isn’t fun watching that, and there is a kind of hubris in the notion that one can buy a super-team to wipe out the competition that does not appeal to me.

If the money is there, I would prefer the overflow goes into other organizational upgrades, perhaps to scouting or analysis or coaching or some cutting edge approach to the game.

by bobr on Dec 7, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think we really disagree at all

Not suggesting the Rays emulate the Marlins (or Yankees, or Red Sox) — I’m just saying that with a normal, mid-market payroll, they could afford the occasional foray into free agency for a truly elite hitter as well as offer sensible extensions to their homegrown talent.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Surprised that's all it took

As @BloggingWithBombers speculated, that opens up some Eduardo Nunez trade possibilities or even the Yankees trading the rights to Nakajima to another team

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 7, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

other than the obvious

(Yankee Semiprospect Inflation Syndrome), I do not get the hype around Eduardo Nunez, particularly given that scouts seem to think he can’t play short.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

He could for a second-division team

and would still be one of the better utility players in baseball if he reached his upside

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 7, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't get it

He’s 25, he’s never really demonstrated much in the way of secondary skills, and reports on his defense are awful. His minor-league numbers are a pale fraction of, say, Elliot Johnson’s — and I expect the Rays to non-tender EJ.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow @ Reyes' deal
@Joelsherman1 Reyes deal is 10m, 10m, 16m, 22M 22M 22m and 22m opt or 4M buyout

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 7, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions  

Yes

in lieu of a no-trade clause they gave him a no-trade back-ended contract. That’s worse than Vernon Wells

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 7, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

haha

2 years as a Marlin?

Well, hey, last time they spent a bunch of money, it was 97 and those guys only stayed for 1 year. Congrats Marlins, you’re doing 2 times better!

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel like I posted this somewhere else

But does anyone think the Giants would be willing to shop Belt? Given that they need OFers would a “Brandon swap” (Guyer for Belt) get it done? Belt is strictly a 1st baseman now right?

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 7, 2011 4:16 PM EST reply actions  

I think Guyer's actual value exceeds his trade value

But BJ for Belt would have made sense prior to the Angel Pagan trade. (I’m not a Pagan believer anyway, but I guess the Giants must be.)

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

well, so much for that

Marlins sign Buehrle instead of Fielder, meaning that a) they have less need for a SP and b) they don’t have to trade Morrison or Sanchez. Oh well.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 7, 2011 4:57 PM EST reply actions  

That's a cash grab if he does

That team blows — could be very good 2 yrs from now with all of the pitching it has but that roster isn’t a contender right now

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 7, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

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