Official DRaysBay Prediction Tracking

In The Extra 2%, Jonah Keri talks about how the Rays front office takes scrupulous notes on every decision they make, being sure to include all information available at the time. Then, five years later, they go back and evaluate their process, to see if they can improve.

Here at DRaysBay, we make very few decisions, but very many predictions. Some people take pride in their predictions, some find joy in pointing out where others were incorrect, but I think that we all can all agree that proper, impartial identification of good and bad, successful and unsuccessful predictions is an important part of "reasoned argument."

To this end, I'm starting up a monthly feature to track all of the predictions made by commenters and writers alike. If you see something that you'd like to be tracked, tag it in the comments with a #DRBPrediction label. If something you say gets tagged, either flesh your prediction out in the comments or write a fanpost clarifying exactly what it is you're trying to say, and what information you're basing the prediction on (if you don't, I'll do this myself, and I may not represent your argument as well as you would).

I'll then aggregate all predictions into a monthly article that will give everyone else the opportunity to add available information that I missed. Hopefully, within not too much time, we'll have a clear numerical representation of (a) who knows what they're talking about and (b) what type of thinking process yields the best forecasts.

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