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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Tampa Bay Rays Sign Matt Moore To 5 Year, $14M Deal

ST PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 04:  Pitcher Matt Moore #55 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the Texas Rangers during Game Four of the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field on October 4, 2011 in St. Petersburg, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

This news from Jerry Crasnick, ESPN:

#Rays reach agreement with pitcher Matt Moore on 5-year, guaranteed $14M contract, source says

The deal includes several club options that could raise value to $37.5M over 8 years. It could top $40M if he hits escalators. #Rays

So the Rays now have Matt Moore locked up for eight years for a maximum of $40 million? Well, I guess he'll be starting 2012 in the majors.

Moore analysis (couldn't resist) on this move and its implications below the jump.

Star-divide

Make no mistake: this deal is an absolute bargain. As he showed at the end of last season, Matt Moore is one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, and through this stage of his career, he compares favorably to such studs as Stephen Strasburg, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Hanson, and Jered Weaver.

Through his Arb2 season -- which is where Moore's guaranteed part of the deal ends and the option years pick up -- Tim Lincecum made $27 million (and will get a haul in arbitration this year). Jered Weaver was paid $13 million over those years, but then signed a 5 year, $85 million extension that pays him an average of $17 million per year.

So not only are the Rays getting a great value on Moore through the first five seasons of his career ($2.8 million AAV), they're also getting a bargain on his Arb3 season and two years of free agency ($8.5 million AAV).

This move is absolutely crucial for the Rays' long term success, as David Price's current situation shows. The Rays waited to sign Price to an extension -- or else he didn't want to sign one initially, who knows? -- and he's now set to get a hefty raise in arbitration this season. Considering Price will likely make $7-8 million in Arb1 this season, he will likely get around $12-13 million in 2013 and become instant trade fodder. And if the Rays were to approach him about an extension right now, odds are that Price would not be willing to take enough of a "hometown discount" in order to make the long-term risk viable for the Rays.

So unless the Rays wanted to risk losing another ace pitcher after only a handful of seasons, they had to lock up Moore before he became a star. Now that they have him signed for eight seasons, it makes the idea of losing Price more palatable; after all, both Price and Moore are hard-throwing lefties, and Moore has shown he has a good chance of becoming as good a pitcher as Price, if not better.

With this move, the Rays now have some impressive long-term starting pitching depth:

Moore4_medium

Moore is essentially going to be the Rays' ace that they build around for the next eight years, and they'll be able to match him up with Shields for (hopefully) the next 2-3 seasons. And despite Davis' poor showing last season, it still seems likely to me that the Rays keep him due to his upside and his contract status. Even if he only ever becomes a league average starter, he's valuable at that price.

Next up on the extension train? Jeremy Hellickson, pretty please.

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2 thoughts

Upon looking up to read the news

To the front office group that made this happen

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 9, 2011 11:12 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

That's the best part of it, IMO

Hell, we can trade two starters and still have someone decent on reserve in AAA. I just hope they’re able to maximize the value, even if it means trading Price.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 9, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Only fear here is how this affects Price

Team locks up the kid before going after its top profile pitcher. I know it takes two sides to tango, but the first phone call I’m making is to him and talking it out.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 9, 2011 11:17 AM EST reply actions  

I don't think Price really has any room to be upset as long as the Rays have made a good effort to extend him.

He understands that this is for the better of the team. He understood why he got sent down in 2009 and he knows the same thing would happen to Moore. This move is more significant in a going for it over the next couple years as it allows moves to be made that will improve the offense this offseason.

by jtmorgan on Dec 9, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

yep

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 9, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

this isn't a bad framework for a Price deal

obviously you don’t get the first two years at sub-million-dollar prices, but you could buy out all 4 option years and then have team options for years 1 and 2 of free agency.

That would probably be something like 4/40 with 2 option years at $15MM each. That seems doable on both sides, right?

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

remember Price already has made millions

Moore was a later draft pick, Much more incentive to sign a long-term deal immediately.

by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 9, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

i would argue that with his success the last 3 years, what he did to the Yanks/Rangers, and now with this contract

he’s the most valuable trade chip in baseball.

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

4 years of longoria vs. 8 years of moore?

dunno…it’s pretty difficult. even more difficult if Moore produces around ~3 WAR for his rookie season which is about what I’m expecting.

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Proud Papa

I just have to share this picture of Matt Moore teaching my son how to pitch at Durham last year:

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 11:23 AM EST reply actions  

Alright everyone, now I take back what I said about the Trout deal..8 years of Moore cost-controlled > 6 years of trout with 3 arbs.

only in light of this new deal though.

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:26 AM EST reply actions  

also, this means he's starting next season with us. YESSSSS

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

can't wait until 2020 when they're 3B and SP of the New York Yankees

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

after we've won 8 WS

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I like Cobb as a starter. Groundballs galore

With our defense. I also wouldn’t mind Davis in the bullpen

by Dome Biscuit on Dec 9, 2011 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

Great move Friedman does it again

I love everything about the Rays front office and team. I hope the next move is to lock up BJ Upton long term. GO RAYS.

by stevetothez on Dec 9, 2011 11:28 AM EST reply actions  

Yep

That’s why I said if I had money to throw around, I might buy a Fielder but mostly, I would spend it all on extending the guys we drafted that made it and looked damn good. Price would def be signed also.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Friedman, how do you continue to amaze us?

I wonder how quick this guy would of turned Houston around.

What a awesome deal in so many ways.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

he's so dreamy

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

sorry sorry sorry

be happy

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Love that Friedchickenman

miss those trolls

Your source for replacement level commentary

by RATW on Dec 9, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Structure:

I’m guessing he gets a nice bonus ($2 million?) and the buyout is about the same. That leaves $10 for the 5 guaranteed years: .1, 1, 2, 3, 3? Then the options would be like 8, 9, 10.5? Then the escalators to get it to $40? God, that’s MONTE.

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 11:37 AM EST reply actions  

first two years are 850K

so probably a little steeper than that. But yeah, this is a hell of a deal.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, yeah, it's 1 game

But I think of ALDS game 1 then look at those numbers and that’s just funny.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I PRAISE YOU 24/7!!!!!! AND THIS HOW YOU DO ME!!!!! YOU EXPECT ME TO LEARN FROM THIS? HOW?!!! ILL NEVER FORGET THIS!! EVER!!! THX THO…

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

i don't know what this is but i enjoyed it anyways.

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

supposed to be: dude, SCIENCE says that baseball is at least $3 million years old. Grow a brain!

But my keyboard does this weird thing where it jumps around, and I have no idea why I put a dollar sign. Hopped up on caffeine and my blood flow is all diverted southward.

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

i just figured it was a new york bankers thing

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

That's right, keep all the aces around AF!
Fay also mentions that Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann could be on the Reds’ radar, as well, and adds that the Reds’ top two trade chips, Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, would be fits for the Rays. It might take more than that to get Shields, but the Reds probably aren’t willing to part with Devin Mesoraco. The Rays have insisted that Shields isn’t going anywhere, but they’ll listen to all offers.

Friedman should just say “See that Moore deal? You know I am getting Yonder and Grandal and not giving up Shields so just agree now and get it over with”

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

Fair enough

I guess I’m assuming Cobb bounces back

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 9, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

If he's ready to go in ST, then yes. If he's not, then probably not.

Locking in Moore allows us to start him in the Bigs, but I’m not sure I’m ready for one of Archer/Torres to start there.

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Neither am I

But if push comes to shove I rather have Yasmani learning backstop from Molina than Davis pitching instead of Torres

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 9, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

true

the floor is never that high.

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

This is usually true.

That being said, they can have both pitchers if it’s Meseroco instead. He will be awesome and he will do it this year.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

No way I do both of those guys for JUST Mesorasco. You have to be SURE you're getting McCann.

Catchers are terrifying because they only play 120 games a year and break down a ton.

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he meant

you trade both Niemann and Davis if you can get both Alonso and Mesoraco. I agree, but I don’t see Cincy doing that.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions  

no way cincy trades both

they already got rid of ramon hernandez…

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Worst case scenario

McGee can start for a while

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 9, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I want those two pretty bad

But, Friedman would never trade 2 starters in 1 deal. He would need a lot more than that, anyway.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

no

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

that's tough

I think you have to get a third player out of that deal. Still, I want to point out that the Rays could do that and still be left with a rotation of Price/Shields/Moore/Hellickson and then Cobb/Torres/Archer for the 5th spot.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes, he is

Same problem with Jennings.

Price…well, he fell out of awesome contract extension range after his 2010 year.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

i agree

i dont see price getting a team friendly extension…he will hold out for the big bucks. I think this is the end of Jeff Niemann

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

2 PM press conference for Moore

I don’t think that’s going to be on TV though, since, you know, we didn’t throw 254 million at him.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 12:04 PM EST reply actions  

I think this is a better signing per dollar than pujols.
FTFY

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 9, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

i think we should get Bob Costas

to ask Albert how old he is the way he asked Jerry Sandusky if he was sexually attracted to young boys…"am I older than what my “birth certificate says” well umm well i really like being around young people…umm yeah , but umm I am only 31."

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Love it. Love it! LOVE IT!!!!!!

These are the kind of deals that will keep the Rays competitive. High risk. Way higher reward.

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 9, 2011 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

Consider my reply to Torrez a replay to this as well

adding a caveat that I watched firsthand as Rick Ankiel imploded. That was not fun.

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 9, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

that's a fair point

in December of 1999, I would have applauded a deal like this for Ankiel as well.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

It'd be fair to call this high risk high reward if the Rays signed Moore to an 8/40 deal straight up

But this is a 5/14 deal where, if we like what we get, we can make it into an 8/40 deal. Completely different

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 9, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd consider nearly any extension for a pitcher

a pretty significant risk. Injuries…SSS and whatnot. Doesn’t make the deal any less awesome.

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 9, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

well, what enables the Rays to make this deal

is their proven medical history with pitchers. So really, if Moore pitches just two years out of the next five and then blows his arm out, this deal is probably still a win.

You’re right that I’m being a bit glib with “essentially zero risk” — but I don’t think this is a particularly risky move at all.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

friedman is the master of minimizing risk

this is just his most recent example of this…even if moore is just a MOR starter this deal will still be team friendly and well worth it…I mean aaron harhang just got 2/12 in LA.

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

You have to make this deal either way

But I can’t help thinking Friedman is very close to trading one of his SP’s so he locked Moore up.

Sorry Cobb, you had to know that Moore was better, though.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

Obvious but still obviously awesome...
Moore wasn’t going anywhere regardless of this contract, as he was under team control for a full six seasons. Still, there was a chance the Rays would have held him in the minors for part of 2012 with the intent of controlling him for a seventh year or avoiding Super Two status. This contract likely removes that scenario, making Moore a stronger candidate for the Rays’ Opening Day rotation and increasing the likelihood Shields, Davis, or Jeff Niemann is traded this offseason.

by Snarfalicious on Dec 9, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

Wow, at first I heard it was only 5 years/$14M, and was thrilled

But to hear it could be EIGHT years? 40M? Holy moly this is why I love rooting for this team.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 9, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

those last 3 years are all club options

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 9, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I got that part

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 9, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

A new catcher for newly-signed Matt Moore? Meh.
The Rays and Mets could be among the suitors for Ivan Rodriguez, who is working out in Miami, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 9, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't worry

There’s always a chance that Stern wont allow it.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

lol that's true

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 9, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Will they still go after Howard?

Nets are about to lock up Nene

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

lol oh Friedman

It’s only a rumor but he asked for Ike Davis and Neise for Upton.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

HERS'S A QUESTION (or 3):

1.) if the Rays decide to trade Jeff Neimann what do you think they would get?
2.) if the Rays decide to trade Wade Davis what do you think they would get?
3.) if the Rays decide to trade Jeff Neimann and Wade Davis what do you think they would get?

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

I still think, because they are blocked

1) Yonder or Grandal
2) Yonder or Grandal
3) Yonder and Grandal

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Jeff Neimann

I just dont see the Reds dealing Yonder or Grandal for Neimann alone.

by James Westfall on Dec 9, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd accept that trade without hesitating.

But there’s no way the Marlins do that, imo

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 9, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I would rather do Shields/Upton.

I believe we may still get Price and a year or two of free agency. I also believe he’ll still reach elite status.

If we could somehow add those two without moving Upton our lineup would be BOSS.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 9, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

This trade is really similar to something Harold Reynolds proposed on MLB network.

He said HanRam and LoMo for King Felix. When I saw that, it made me think of HanRam and LoMo for Price. The other trade I thought of that I think could work for both teams was HanRam and LoMo for Shields and Guyer. With how bad LoMo’s D has been in LF in SSS, I think Guyer the LF is as good as LoMo the LF. Even if you think LoMo is more valuable, that would help to offset the extra 18 million that is owed to HanRam. A Longo, Hanley, Zobrist, LoMo infield would make me very happy. Rosterbating is so much fun sometimes.

by ReyL on Dec 9, 2011 10:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
One member of #Marlins drawing more trade interest than any other: @LoMoMarlins. Highly, highly unlikely that team will move him. #MLB

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 9, 2011 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Wow

Annual sals for #Rays Moore on new deal: $1M in ’12, $1M ’ 13, $1M ’14, $3M ’15, $5M ’16, $7M option ’17, $9.5M option ’18, $10M option ’19

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions  

Pretty much spot on but trade the signing bonus for the last season of the guaranteed years and subtract a mill from the third season for $3 mill buyout:

That leaves $10 for the 5 guaranteed years: .1, 1, 2, 3, 3? Then the options would be like 8, 9, 10.5? Then the escalators to get it to $40? God, that’s MONTE.
by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 11:37 AM EST reply actions

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, Friedman

Friedman said the #Rays have discussed movng one of starters into pen, Friedman very optimistic about #MattMoore

I just found that funny because in the same interview he said “new contract doesn’t necessarily mean Moore makes opening day roster”

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

I'm guessing the "moving one of starters into pen" is Torres.

With Davis/Niemann traded, Moore is easily the #5 starter (if not, #4). If our commited salary is about $50-$52 after the Moore deal, trading Davis or Niemann for a cheap, young 1B should give us at least $1M back, so about $50M after that.

That leaves us with needs at DH and maybe another RP, so I figured our payroll sits at about $57M, but if a guy like Willingham signs it could be up to $60M, with our needs filled.

That’s a winning team, but it will be tougher to make the playoffs with the Angles loading up, and we can’t expect the Yankees or Red Sox to collapse. This is the year we need to make something happen, with possible free agents and contracts getting expensive after this year.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 9, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh? The Rays payroll is around $42m, and won't be impacted much at all by the Moore deal.

Torres will probably be in Triple-A to start the year. He still has some things to work on.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 9, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait, but the payroll last year was $42M,

so with all the raises in contracts and arbitration, plus signings of Molina and Moore, It should be about $50M. I might not be thinking right, but all this offseason I was thinking we were at about $47M with needs at C, 1B, DH, and RP.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 10, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Plus, the arbitration numbers you have are lower than MLBTR's projections, which I am using.

Adding that money, plus Molina and Moore signings, I have a little over $5M more than your projections, so it sits more around $48M than $50M.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 10, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm sorry. I was also including like 14 players being paid the minimum in there.

So after that was included, it does sit at around $50M. But obviously you didn’t know that because I didn’t tell you. I might write up a FanPost on this sometime soon…..:)

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 10, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

#WD4Bullpen

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 9, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Wade Davis, Bullpen Pitcher

The challenge with Davis is that just about all his value right now is in how long/cheap his deal is, and not in his prowess on the mound.

Davis isn’t one of the six best TB starters, and doesn’t deserve a spot in even an expanded rotation in 2012. Niemann might be under control for less time, but it would be foolish to deal him and keep Davis only because Davis is cheaper longer. Deal Niemann, and ou’re stuck with Wade Davis in your rotation for two more years, probably out-earning his meager salary, but not helping you win the AL East.

Using him in the bullpen is inefficient in anything more than the short-term of a single year in 2012. Davis is going to make $1.5MM next year and $2.8MM in 2013, so due to Rays payroll constraints, he has to be gone by Opening Day 2013 to not be a bad deal, in which the Rays are paying nearly $3 million for 50 innings of Wade Davis, Bullpen Pitcher.

I think the best thing is to find a taker for Davis ASAP, see if Jocketty thinks the Pujols/Fielder exodus opens up the Central for him in 2012 and will let Alonso or Mesoraco or Yasmani Grandal go for an “experienced, established starting pitcher who, Walt, can really help you guys this year”, or if KC or someone who is just starting to break through but in need of a back-end 1-2-WAR SP would give up a nice piece in return. I have a hard time seeing a future for Wade Davis in TB.

by themiddle54 on Dec 9, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

i mean relief ace...

there’s a difference between a “big ‘if’” and being “guaranteed.” will he be a top 25ish RP (about the amount of guys that mean that qualification from 2009-2011)? i dont know, but id put the odds at higher than “a big if.”

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s possible Davis would be a capable reliever, but not a “good” one, IMO.

You don’t want a guy who is striking out 5-6 per 9IP, and walking over half that, who is a fly ball pitcher prone to giving up HR working in any kind of high-leverage situations. And Wade Davis is that pitcher.

Similarly, you don’t want to have a low-leverage ROOGy or a mop-up guy who primarily works 3+ run margin situations at $2.8MM/year, which is where Davis will be in a year.

If he relives this year, his trade value plummets due to the 2013 salary and every team in MLB having a RHP with a fastball/slider combo that can miss bats better than Davis for three outs once every four days.

I think now is the time to deal Davis and get as much as you can for him. I can’t see him being a long-term answer for the team, or his trade value being any higher in 3 months, 7 months, 12 months, 24 months than it is now. I’m fairly sure Friedman sees this, and will deal him for the best possible package in the next month or so.

by themiddle54 on Dec 9, 2011 7:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with basically everything you say actually

Although I think there’s more of a chance of Wade being a shutdown reliever than you admit, it’s not worth the risk to try him in the pen for sure

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 9, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions  

He's not an elite RP

He lacks the stuff to miss enough bats to be an elite RP. He arguably lacks the stuff to be any kind of RP other than the guy who mops up a blowout for an inning or two.

Farnsworth strikes out well over 2 more per 9. He walks 1.2 or so less per 9. He allows a lot less HR. He induces a hek of a lot fewer GB. Even reducing Davis’ IP by a third and eliminating the 2nd, 3rd, and (very rare) 4th time through the lineup factor, he’s not catching up to Farnsworth.

by themiddle54 on Dec 9, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

oops

….induces a heck of a lot MORE GB….

by themiddle54 on Dec 9, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

True, but all the combined effects do not do enough to make Wade Davis an effective enough relief pitcher to justify a roster spot at $2.8 million on a team in which that would represent about 6% of total payroll. He will never have that bat-missing stuff that every good high-leverage pitcher needs.

by themiddle54 on Dec 9, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Best front office in baseball right now (up there with Texas)

Longo, Zobrist, and Moore deals will prove to be 3 of the top long-term deals handed out this decade.

Rays in '08.... Desmond Jennings - the breakout continues.....

by youALREADYknow on Dec 11, 2011 1:47 AM EST reply actions  

They wouldn't all be this decade.

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 11, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

weALREADYknow

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu

by pudieron89 on Dec 11, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

that's dramatic understatement

no other FO in the game is close to the Rays — certainly not Texas.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 11, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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