Matt Moore Calculator

I made a spreadsheet calculator to help understand the magnitude of savings (or losses) from this Matt Moore deal.

Please save it as your own Google Doc or download to your computer.

What I'd LOVE to see is someone create a handful of scenarios, assign them probabilities, and get an average outcome. Maybe even build in the decreasing utility of money from Moore's point of view.

6 months ago Sky Kalkman 4 comments 0 recs |

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Scenario 1: Moore does basically nothing productive. Rays lose $14M
Scenario 2: Moore’s a 2.5 WAR pitcher for next 8 years. Rays win by about $20M
Scenario 3: Moore’s a 5.0 WAR pitcher for next 8 years. Rays win by about $75M

If you weight the first two at 40% likelihood and the last at 20%, that’s an expected win of $17M.

@Sky_Kalkman

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 9, 2011 1:41 PM EST reply actions

I'll take that.

Also because if the Rays didn’t ink him to this deal and he became a 5 WAR pitcher, they’d have to trade him in 4-5 years like with Price. The longevity of the deal is a big plus in that regard.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 9, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

5-WAR pitchers are essentially a top 10 pitcher.

5-WAR pitches from 2009-2011:
Roy Halladay- 7.4
Justin Verlander- 7.2
Cliff Lee- 6.8
CC Sabathia- 6.3
Felix Hernandez- 6.2
Zack Greinke- 6.1
Tim Lincecum- 5.8
Dan Haren- 5.6
Ubaldo Jimenez- 5.3
Jon Lester- 5.3
Clayton Kershaw- 5.2
Jered Weaver- 5.1

Imagine if he becomes a Sabthia/Verlander/Halladay/etc. and averages 6-WAR (which I could see). That is just over $100 mill. in savings. Good god almighty.

by rglass44 on Dec 9, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions