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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Pre-Agency

The Matt Moore contract news today was an early holiday present to Rays fans as the crown jewel of the farm system is now under team control until 30 years old. Matt Moore is also now financially set for life regardless what happens to him physically at this point and gets more money than a 245th overall draft pick could ever imagine making at the major league level. He and the other 46 players picked at that spot in the draft since 1965 have a combined value of just 12.7 wins above replacement according to Baseball-Reference. If Moore pitches as the Rays project him to with this contract, he could double that sum by the end of the 2014 season.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! noted on Twitter today, the Rays could potentially own the best player contract in the league from 2008 to 2019 between what Evan Longoria signed for through what Moore just signed today. The individual deals are beneficial for both team and player, with the team coming out further ahead most times. Compare that to free agency when teams are often forced to pay players for what they have done rather than what they can do. When that happens, you are stuck with contracts such as the ones Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, and Carlos Lee have right now. It should be no coincidence that the General Managers that signed those deals are no longer employed in that role in baseball. Meanwhile, Andrew Friedman has signed yet another deal that gives the Rays the financial flexibility to remain competitive in the American League.

The individual impact of the Longoria deal has already paid immediate dividends, but when you lump it in with the deal signed today and into similar deals signed by James Shields, Carl Crawford, Wade Davis, and Ben Zobrist, the desired outcomes are more transparent.

Star-divide

Moore became the sixth player to sign a pre-arbitration deal with the Rays that eliminated the arbitration process as well as some free agent time by giving the Rays team options to exercise. Jonah Keri noted in his Grantland piecetoday that the Rays first attempted this process with B.J. Upton but were rebuffed. Instead, Crawford became the first player to sign such a deal followed by Shields, Longoria, Zobrist, Davis, and now Moore.

Crawford's deal was played out in its entirety as the Rays exercised the team options in the deal until he became a free agent after the end of the 2010 off-season. If the Rays hold true with that pattern and exercise each team option in the deals with the other five players, they will have controlled those six players nearly as long as Jamie Moyer has been alive.

Contracts_medium

42 years of player control for six players, for a sum that comes in $34M less than what the Angels just paid one player to control for the next ten years. That sum is also just $20M more than what the Yankees total team payroll was this past season. While other teams are investing in assets that rarely produce the return they were paid to produce, the Rays have chosen to invest in pre-agency and pay players for what they project them to do as long as they can convince that player to do so.

In an ideal world, David Price would be the next player on the list so the team and player can avoid the arbitration process this off-season and work together to come up with a way to both reward Price for his contributions and help keep the team competitive moving forward. If Price is not open to that process, the team can also work with players such as Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce.

The downsides of pre-agency deals are minimal in comparison to the downsides of free agency deals. If the player does not develop as the team projects or incurs a serious injury, the team can buy out the options at a small cost and move on. As the Rays learned in 2010, if the free agent simply cannot produce as Pat Burrell was doing, it costs the team a large sum of money to either bench the player or cut the player to move onto the next one.

Free agency and the deals that Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Albert Pujols signed this week are fun for the news cycle and the fanbases that receive those players, but pre-agency is what the Rays have to continue to do in order to stay competitive with the growing payrolls and talents of its American League competition.

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Kaz was already in arbitration when he signed his deal as he pitched 2008 in Arb1

RJ & I chatted about it before I wrote this and agreed that deal didn’t fit since Kaz was in ARB2 when the deal was done in 09 & then he was dealt away later anyhow

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 9, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Rocco Baldelli also

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

OT: A's get Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook for Trevor Cahill

you can argue Cahill is slightly superior to Davis and Niemann, but I have to think this sets the market.

by AndrewTorrez on Dec 9, 2011 7:09 PM EST reply actions  

Not crazy about that return

Parker coming off TJ, Cowgill is more of a 4th OF/Aaron Cunningham type and Cook is a converted starter.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 9, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Not that great no

But as the market shrinks, better stuff comes into play for those who missed out.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Dec 9, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I figure that the

Twins, Royals, Rangers, Angels(3-way), Reds, Marlins, Nats, Mets are all teams that could be teams that would have the pieces to discuss.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Dec 9, 2011 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

OT: One thing that gives me pause about the reality of a Davis/Niemann to Cinci talk

Are they better than what Cinci already has?

Johnny Cueto
Mike Leake
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey
Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 9, 2011 7:31 PM EST reply actions  

yes?

Volquez is broken, bailey’s criminally ineffective, wood’s an AAAA arm, and Arroyo was by far the worst regular starter in baseball last year

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 9, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Arroyo gave up more HRs than Bautista hit

That’s so bad it’s funny lol

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Dec 9, 2011 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe, maybe not

But they don’t have enough to send us to get Price or Shields. And I still think folks here are overvaluing Cobb, but the rest of the league probably undervalues him, so we’re never going to trade hikm because it would be impossible to get equal value if we did so.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 10, 2011 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Price> meso and alonso.

alonso is way overrated. the guy has 36 HR’s in almost 1200 at bats. i dont see why pople are so excited about him.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Dec 10, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

We don't need power.

If everything works out at the end of the year, we have five guys who have 20+ HR’s. Yonder Alonso seems like 2011’s Kotchman with more power, which isn’t too bad. A .300 hitter is what this team needs.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 11, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Run production is run production, whether it comes from on base or power.

Furthermore, to oversimplify a little, there are very few good hitters out there who don’t hit lots of home runs (aside from speedsters, which Alonso clearly is not)
Non-speedsters with wRC+s of 115 or better who hit under 20 home runs in a full season (600+ PA):
Michael Young, Billy Butler, Andre Ethier, Melky Cabrera. I suppose if you expect Yonder to put a .330+ BABIP like all of these guys, then maybe he’ll be a productive hitter. I wouldn’t put my money on a guy with abysmal speed to put up a .330+ BABIP though.

by benderbrodriguez on Dec 11, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Understood.

But the guy isn’t a top prospect for no reason. Of course it would be nice to have a 1B with 30+ HR potential, but all I’m saying is we shouldn’t be uninterested in this guy because he has hit 36 HR’s in almost 1200 at bats, a point I was making to James Westfall.

It’s all good, go Rays!

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 11, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions  

GO RAYS!

this isn't DRB
you don’t get a free pass for acting like a douchebag.
Derp
by Pikachu on Dec 11, 2011 2:44 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 11, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yonder Alonso

the guy will be a .275-.285 hitter with a fair OBP with limited pop. I really do not even see 20+ HR’s over a full season. Plus his defensive upside is limited. He is very comparable to Mitch Moreland and I don’t think a trade of Price for a mitch moreland-type and even a highly regarded C like Mesocaro is worth it.

Catchers are one of the riskiest positions to develop and David Price is worth more than 2 minor leaguers.

GO RAYS!

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Dec 12, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Who are the 5?

Longoria, Upton, maybe Joyce and Zobrist? Sonny? Who am I missing?

Are you talking career HR? Or HR capability for a single season?

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 11, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I was including Jennings, but that's a bit of a stretch.

Hey, he hit 10 in 247 AB’s, why not double those numbers? But I did say “if everything works out”, so I’m not saying it’s a lock…but I get what you said.

I AM THE MONSTER - The big SCARY monsta

by sc_monsta1015 on Dec 11, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

SRod could hit 20, too, then.

this isn't DRB
you don’t get a free pass for acting like a douchebag.
Derp
by Pikachu on Dec 11, 2011 2:44 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 11, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

BTW, I first read the title as "pregnancy"

What an awesome day for Matt and his family I thought

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 9, 2011 9:55 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Minor correction...

“the Rays could potentially own the best player contract in the league from 2008 to 2019 between what Evan Longoria signed for through what Moore just signed today”

by generaltso on Dec 9, 2011 11:06 PM EST reply actions  

Reds and Rays still talking

This article shows the teams are still having conversations, which means there has to be something yet to talk about. Question always is on who blinks first, but with Pujols out of the division (and Fielder most likely on his way out as well), Reds might be more inclined to think there’s an opportunity for them to seize here. Will have to see how this one plays out. Would love it if the Rays made a trade with Cincy, and then took a flier on Morales as a DH candidate.

by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 9, 2011 11:28 PM EST reply actions  

I know everyone wants a future C

But if Salty can become decent at defense (the guy at one time couldn’t even throw the ball back to the pitcher) then Chirinos can be fixed also. I love his bat and I hope hes the other half of the platoon in 2012.

That way, we can keep Shields and just trade Davis/Neimann for LoMo/Sanchez/Smoak/Yonder or Friedman does it again and….Ike Davis

Also, of course, the 2 Angel guys.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 9, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Friedman is in a very good position I hope he is playing the Marlins against the Reds

I would love to end up with either Hanley or Mesoraco and Alonso for Price

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 12:08 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Hanley and LoMo or Meseroco and Alonso?

Nice. Hanley deal is better and the Marlins wouldn’t do it though.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I dont see the Marlins trading both Hanley and LoMo

They would be giving too much offense up unless BJ or Joyce were also involved but that is too many major parts to be realistic, I don’t think Price for Hanley is a bad deal for either team if Rays can afford to pay him

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 12:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Any truth to the Abreu or Bailey rumors?

Don’t want Abreu, would love Bailey except that he’s going to get real expensive real soon.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 1:09 AM EST reply actions  

I would be very suprised if they Rays sign/trade for any reliever that is making more than the league min

we have a pretty deep/talented group with the potential of being even deeper if Davis/Torres are added to the mix.

That reminds me though I haven’t heard anything about Peralta lately, I thought he was going to get too expensive but I haven’t heard whether he is coming back or not.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 2:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Trade idea

I proposed this over at VEB as well (the Cardinals blog). Allen Craig, John Jay, and a reliever or two for BJ Upton or Wade Davis (but probably upton)

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 10, 2011 2:11 AM EST reply actions  

yea that doesn't make too much sense to either team

I don’t see that being a huge offensive boost for the Rays, and they have little use in a reliever. I don’t think BJ puts St. Louis over the top either, so unless they really like Davis I don’t see them wanting to dump 2 offensive starters.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 2:20 AM EST up reply actions  

My argument

was essentially this: Cards sign fielder, Berkman back to right for one more year. Craig is highly replaceable and the cards have a number of guys that could fill his spot. They have the money to extend upton, and upton is worth at least 1.5 WAR more/season than Jay.

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 10, 2011 2:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Since the Cards ran Rasmus out of town, I'm not sure I see Upton being a fit.

They have many of the same things working against them. Both very talented players, both with high strikeout rates/low BAs, both with perceived attitude issues.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 10, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Disagree

LaRussa pretty much single handedly ran Rasmus out of town. Rasmus was projected in a poor light in the media with a lot of nonsense about Colby’s dad that turned out to be a fabrication. Rasmus was actually pretty popular.

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 10, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

injured

Nobody is dealing for Craig just coming off major knee surgery until he is on the field showing he is good to go

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 10, 2011 8:35 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

anytime

you end up in Veil Colorado with Dr. Stedham (Spelling)—-I don’t think you are exactly trade material until you prove you’re healthy again.

by MrNegative1 on Dec 10, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I know I'm probably alone in this but...

I would take Manny back. NRI or league min deal, why the hell not?

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 10, 2011 11:07 AM EST reply actions  

Does the trop

have bathrooms behind the left field wall?

Something clever...

by Dttl89 on Dec 10, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

What is your guys' feeling on Ike Davis?

I love the left-handed power in our park, but my main concern is his health. I haven’t read much into it, but what was the extent of the ankle injury?

by Snarfalicious on Dec 10, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

WAAAAAANT

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 10, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Same here...

If you were to build a deal that essentially had the Davis’ (Wade/Ike) as the centerpieces, what else would you have the deal include? I personally believe that Wade Davis isn’t enough to get Ike, so I was curious as to what we might need to give up in order to close the gap.

by Snarfalicious on Dec 10, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

A Guyer type?

Mets are rebuilding, they can use a young pitcher under control for another 6 years for cheap and they got Jason Bay who is doing nothing and who else in that OF? Andres Torres?!

Certainly would want to move Duda back to 1B also. Maybe Friedman can pull it off. I didn’t see that Moore deal coming so soon.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis + something

Another player would have to be thrown in to help the Mets rebuilding effort. I think Martinez might get the OF spot coming out of spring training. They might consider him instead of Guyer, and would want something else. Maybe another pitcher Colome, or lower level player with upside (Sale, Brett, O’connor).

by MakeitRayn on Dec 10, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't wanna give it up on Sale after 1 bad half season

If they would do it for Brett then sure.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Sale got BABIP'd

But Davis is good, and I think it would cost more to get him than Alonso.

by MakeitRayn on Dec 10, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sure even the..... not so smart Mets prefer Duda at 1B than the OF

but they need pitching. Davis and Archer/Torres/Cobb for Ike Davis?

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis for Duda

My dad is a huge Mets follower, he was saying Duda +spects for W.Davis is possible. The Mets are in a similar position as the Rays are with Shields with I.Davis; they are going to have to be overwhelmed to trade him. I.Davis upside and control is too much to give up for the uncertainty in prospects. They have F-Mart in the minors and they need to see what he can do or trade him. The also have Nieuwenhuis, future OF, that is ready now. So there is no place for Duda, whereas Ike’s potential is to much for the Mets to part with.

by MakeitRayn on Dec 10, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not a huge Duda fan

More would have to added on the Mets side for me.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Serious want for Davis

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 10, 2011 3:34 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

how much do they like Turner

I wonder if they would have an interest in Sean Rodriguez….completely speculating but if the Rays can make a move for Ramirez, I wonder if they can turn Torres/Cobb and Rodriguez into Davis.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, Murphy at 2B, Tejada at SS

Turner would be on the bench but it’s the Mets, everyone will be injured at some point….again.

I’m not quite sure what you were proposing, tell me if I’m close

Rays trade Alex Torres, Alex Cobb and S-Rod for Ike Davis and we then trade for Hanley?

If I got that right, who do we trade for Hanley?

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I would trade Price for Hanley

and than either Cobb or Torres, Rodriguez, and probably another lower level pitcher like Riefenhauser for Davis. Leaving us with still Davis, Niemann, Shields, Moore and Helly in the rotation with either Cobb/Torres and Archer in AAA/Bullpen.

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Mets do it for Torres, Rodriguez and Riefenhauser, they are idiots

So it’s quite possible.

I love Hanley too, well, I love his talent, he’s a douche. But as far as Price, can we have just 1 year with our big 4?

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I would rather have a big 3 and 2 pretty goods

and add a big time impact bat than to have a big 4 and a gaping hole in the middle of the line-up again. I’m not sure what Davis’ value, depends on how much the Mets like Duda

by Dbullsfan on Dec 10, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Guyer would make a better OF than Joyce

so Joyce (DH).

Am I the only one flagging this guy?
Seriously, do we have to wait for the money shot or a "F*** THE SOXXXXXX!" before we ban him? Doubleteapot… BAN HIM!!

by AlohaSox on Sep 28, 2011 10:20 PM CDT

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 10, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

And how quick things can change

Murphy seems very close to becoming a Dodger.

He’s overrated but he’s better than the 10 AAAA players they have already signed.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Mitch Moreland?
One NL executive said he heard the Rangers were looking to sign free- agent first baseman Prince Fielder and deal first baseman Mitch Moreland to the Rays for pitcher Wade Davis in the wake of Pujols going to an AL West rival.

http://tinyurl.com/7ln2bgx

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 10, 2011 4:33 PM EST reply actions  

I don't know if we need another guy who can't hit lefties

Combined with “should” be ready for opening day following wrist surgery.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Has either Moreland or Joyce received enough PA's vs LHP to be written off as unable to hit LHP?

Joyce 2007 vs LHP: .252/.323/.469 in minors
Joyce 2008 vs LHP: 30 PA in MLB
Joyce 2009 vs LHP: .273/.350/.508 in minors
Joyce 2010 vs LHP: 34 PA in minors& went 11 for 34

Moreland 2008 vs LHP: .308/.415/.467 in 142 PA
Moreland 2009 vs LHP: .43 for 120 vs LHP with 14 XBH
Moreland 2010 vs LHP: .280/.352/.463 in 91 PA

Davis for Moreland? Yea, I do that in a heartbeat. He’s not a great defender but I like his bat

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Dec 11, 2011 8:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Matt Rizzotti

Not major league tested, but blocked by 125-million-over-five-year-man Howard. Could a bullpen arm pull him away from Phillie?

by MakeitRayn on Dec 11, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Please no

Unless we are getting more, I don’t like this deal. This team could do better than a below average platooning 1B.

by MakeitRayn on Dec 10, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

15 homers playing in Texas? He hits them far but not that often.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Also what doesn't makes sense

Derek Holland
Alexi Ogando
Colby Lewis
Matt Harrison
Neftali Feliz

Their rotation is full. It only has room for a very good pitching acquisition like Danks or Garza or Shields, not Wade Davis.

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 10, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know why everyone is saying Wade will bring back pretty much the same amount of talent as Cahill

But a hitter equal to Parker’s talent sounds pretty damn good to me.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 5:05 PM EST reply actions  

Davis in the pen is better than a platooning Morland

At least this way Davis has a chance of increasing his value this way. Morland works in Texas because of the hitters they have at every other position.
In addition, keeping Davis, Joyce at 1B, and Guyer in right seems like a better alternative.

by MakeitRayn on Dec 10, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't have to convince me

I don’t even want Moreland unless the Rangers decide to give him away.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

3 years ago, we got Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson

I say that 3 years later we should again trade a SP for a young, high potential hitter.

Yonder, Morrison, Sanchez, Smoak, I. Davis, Trumbo, Morales

Depending on who it is, Davis or Neimann should be enough

I think if it’s Morrison, Ike Davis or Trumbo, it would take more.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 5:10 PM EST reply actions  

Rosenthal: Cahill vs. Davis makes for an intriguing comparison
Clubs might not view Davis as highly, but the greater affordability of his contract might make him even more appealing to mid- and low-revenue clubs in need of rotation help – clubs such as the Reds and Marlins.

http://tinyurl.com/6nscbp7

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 10, 2011 5:18 PM EST reply actions  

Does anyone know anything about us being interested in Andrew Bailey?

I saw Rancel tweet it and I saw rotoworld say the Rays and Red Sox have interest but nothing else and it came out of no where. Also he will start getting expensive this year and might cost a lot in prospects too. Anyone know anything more about this.

Also, can someone please tell me the Abreu rumors were false?

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 5:23 PM EST reply actions  

Back to back lame rotoworld updates

Update #1: Angels plan to tender Morales a contract.
Update #2: Willingham has a final 4 of teams he will sign for and the Rays are not one of them.

Under construction

by joeybw on Dec 10, 2011 5:38 PM EST reply actions  

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