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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

The Bullpen Battle: Who's in the Mix?

Spring Training is normally viewed as a time of "competition" for roster spots, but how often is it ever the case that there's a true fight for a final roster spot? Most teams enter Spring Training with certain favorites already lined up for each roster spot, with maybe one or two slots open for debate. This lack of competition can make Spring Training tedious and uninteresting after a while, since really, what's the point of caring if it's merely about getting everyone warmed up for the season?

This year, though, the Rays have two legitimate competitions: Felipe Lopez versus Elliot Johnson for back-up utility infielder, and well....the entire bullpen. While the Lopez v. Elliot debate is interesting in its own right, this year's bullpen composition is massive and is already attracting all sorts of attention. Consider:

Bullpen2_medium

Yesterday, Joe Maddon came out and stated that he fully expects to use a "closer by committee" in his bullpen at the beginning of the season, but who's even going to be in the bullpen? That's a massive list of candidates - all of whom you can make persuasive arguments for one way or the other - and there are only three spots left with no sure-fire frontrunners.

To make things easier to follow this next month, let's try and narrow that list down.

Star-divide

Elimination Round

We can start off by eliminating some of the obviously weaker candidates. Bayliss and Bootcheck have put up some decent numbers in Triple-A, but neither of them looks particularly noteworthy or has a better track-record than other candidates. Bayliss has had success in Triple-A recently (~4.00 FIP over the last two years), and could be a viable option if he can keep his walks down. Also, Bootcheck has posted impressive minor league strikeout rates (around 11 batters per nine over the last few seasons), but he's struggled with his command and walked over 5 batter per nine in his most recent stints in the majors. Both have potential to break out in 2011, but they're simply too far down the list. Cross their names off.

Next, Matt Bush, Brandon Gomes, and Cesar Cabral are all intriguing options with live arms, but promoting them to the majors would require all of them to skip levels in the minor leagues. Bush only threw 13.2 innings last season (none above the Advanced-A level), and Cesar Cabral has also never thrown above Advanced-A. Gomes is a bit more of a possibility, as he struck out 11.5 batters per nine last year in Double-A, but I can't remember the last time the Rays have had a pitching prospect skip a level of the minor leagues. Even David Price had to pay his dues in Triple-A, so I doubt Gomes jumps immediately to the majors.*

* Note: Let me be clear, I'm not saying I wouldn't like it if Gomes jumped to the majors. His minor league numbers are impressive and I think he's got a case for jumping right to the majors. I'm just saying it's not like the Rays to jump a player over a level, so it'd be out of the ordinary.

On the injury front, both J.P. Howell and Juan Cruz will likely pitch with the major league team at some point this season, but they're both recovering from injuries and will not start the season with the team. Also, as much as I'd like Hayhurst to break camp with the big-league club, he hasn't pitched professionally since 2009 due to an arm injury. He could possibly see time at the majors this season, but the Rays aren't likely to rush him back and put him in their major league opening day bullpen.

What's that leave us with?

So in the end, my guess is the final three bullpen slots come down to these six players:

Bullpen2_medium

Which of these players deserve to make the bullpen? I think we'd all love to see Jake McGee make the bullpen, but that depends on if the Rays are willing to making him a starter. Also, if McGee makes the bullpen, do the Rays then carry another lefty like Ramos, or do they simply use McGee in situations where they'd normally use a LOOGY? And if they do take McGee, then who do you choose: Delaney or Wade?

Even with a narrowed down list, there are still plenty of questions and no easy answers. We'll be covering these players over the course of Spring Training, and I imagine Maddon will be watching their progress closely. This looks to be a close fight for those final few spots, and it should give us something extra to pay attention to during Spring Training this year.

Who would you like to see make the bullpen roster to begin the season? Any thoughts?

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Not really a closer by committee

In 2008, the reason there were saves to go around was because Percival was on the DL for three separate occasions(for 2-4 weeks at a time). Percival had a very good season though, saving 28 games with 4 blown saves. While Howell, Wheeler, Choate and Balfour did a fine job in his absence, 28 saves, they also had 17 blown saves. For the year the Rays were actually below league average in BS’s(65%-67% league). And while they were an important part of the Rays success that year, they were just filling in for relatively short and unexpected times…more like replacements and not so much a designated closer by committee plan as the main approach to working a bullpen.

By and large, I would be hard pressed to find a team going into a season with a closer by committee plan that had much success with that approach.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 8:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Correction

Wheeler(13 saves and 5 blown saves)Howell(3 saves and 2 BS’s) and Balfour(4 saves and 1 BS) were the numbers for 2008. The team as a whole was 76% compared to league average of 66%. But the usage of the pen was the same as far as replacing Percival on the fly.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

"Percival had a very good season though"

If you’re going to write nonsense like this, then I’m not going to bother reading the rest of your comment.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

He had his ups and downs

But he was the stabilizing force in the pen and something that the Rays had been missing prior to that season. He enabled the rest of the pen to establish themselves and become very successful in their designated roles. You may recall the wildness in many games but he got the job done despite that. And while he wasn’t there in the play-offs, he was as important part of the Rays success that year as anyone, IMO.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha, he abandons the team and openly pouts/whines on the mound and he's a great leader.

But you think Upton is a dumb baby. And yeah he “got the job done” with an ERA over 4.5 and a FIP near 6. Get out.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

If you don't think that Percival's presence in 2008 was a contributing factor to the Rays success, you weren't watching

He closed out games, when healthy (28 saves and 4 BS’s) for an 88% rate(despite his other numbers). His role as closer, enabled Wheeler to be the 8th inning set-up man, Balfour the high leverage 7/8th inning guy, Howell as an all purpose 6/7/8th inning guy and Miller as the LOOGY.

The same defined roles of the pen that made last years pen so successful was the same method that was used in 2008 and could not have been achieved without Percival being the solid, count on, shut down closer he was that year. It may have not been pretty to you but he was the glue that set that whole pen up for success when he was healthy.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Perhaps

But Percival being the closer enabled the rest of the pen to be successful in their defined roles…and that was the basis for the teams entire bullpen success, IMO. The resulting disappointment and failures of the pen in 2009 showed the importance of losing an established closer(Percival and his attitude and wildness) or any other guy the Rays might have had because it threw the rest of the pen out of their defined roles.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

.
Such a distinction would’ve went to the 2009 pen, but they went from a 3.9 FIP through late June to a 4.48 FIP overall. Thank you, September and October. Here are the best relief corps in team history, as ranked by FIP, note that the two extremes came within 12 months of each other. Fun stuff:

http://www.draysbay.com/2010/2/16/1312950/2010/2/16/1312950/the-2010-bullpen-best-in-rays-team

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Which will be the main question to be solved going into 2011

And why not having an established closer(and a potential shut down set-up man) at this point could be the teams achilles heal, IMO.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

We can make an established closer out of anyone on that list, just about any of them could pitch as well as Percival did.

They might even abandon the team like Troy too. Except this will be because the team designated them for assignment for pitching horribly.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Your argument should prove we don't need an established closer.

Percival was bad, like really bad, in 08. He walked over 5 per 9 and gave up 1.77 HR/9. Both really bad. His ERA was 4.53 and his FIP was almost 6, yet he still successfully saved 28 of 32 chances. I think that shows just how unimportant it is to have a shut down closer type. We should be able to pitch just about anybody on our roster and they should have better numbers than Percival, so why worry about who the closer is?

by ReyL on Feb 16, 2011 9:22 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Hmm. No way I'm going to agree that Percival had a good year in 2008.

I’ll give you the slight caveat that he added value to the team beyond his performance, it’s really impossible to know how much value his clubhouse presence added. But seriously….he had a good year? I dunno about that.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 16, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

he was as important part of the Rays success that year as anyone, IMO.

Bartlett >

www.espn1040.com, www.theprocessreport.com, www.bloombergsports.com Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 16, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Not so much

Again, Percival was the main closer going into 2009 and he had 6 saves and no blown saves in the month and a half he pitched in April/May before ending his season. Howell was forced into the role of closer after that and he did pitch well(17 saves but also 8 blown saves). My numbers form the post below apply here(Wheeler with 2 saves and 4 BS’s, Balfour with 4 saves and 5 BS’s, and Choate with 5 saves and 0 BS’s). There pen blown saves % was 65% compared to league average of 67%. The year was never based on closer by committee..Howell became the closer by default.

The biggest problem in 2009 for the pen after Percival was lost was that in using Howell as the main closer it forced him out of his successful 8th inning spot in setting up Pericval but more importantly moved everyone else in the pen into unfamiliar roles that they really didn’t perform well in. It kept them somewhat close in the race that year but they were never as dominant as in 2008(and the other injuries to the team after the All-Star game sealed their fate). When Howell went down in September, the Rays were already out of the race and their was no closer by committee.

by budman3 on Feb 16, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

He was lights out in April

And god awful the rest of the way.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 16, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

If you can't get 3 outs as a RP

Then you need a new career, regardless of the inning.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Feb 16, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Your save numbers are misleading.

You can’t use save percentage for non closers. If Balfour comes in with a runner on second and 0 out in the 7th inning of a 4-3 game and gets 3 straight ground outs, but the tying runner scores, he has a blown save. He could be put in this same situation 10 times and say the runner scores twice. He still has 2 BS, but 0 saves, even though he has pitched great.

If you look at JP from May 31(when he started regularly finishing games), until August 21(when about his arm fell off), he saved 14 games and had only 2 BS. Out of his 8 BS for the year, only 2 came in the ninth inning or later. The Rays as a team only blew 4 ninth inning leads all season in 09. Another reason why having a top notch closer is misleading.

by ReyL on Feb 16, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions  

If saves and blown saves are the only "metric" you're going to use please gtfo. It's meaningless. Soriano got a blown save last year for not even giving up a hit
6/19 M Stanton 8-B 1 23 5-5 Mike Stanton struck out swinging. 3.12 1.41 22.3 % .163 0.81
6/19 D Uggla 8-B 0 1
3 4-5 Dan Uggla struck out looking. 3.56 1.85 35.9 % .150 0.66
6/19 R Paulino 8-B 2 23 5-5 Ronny Paulino flied out to left (Fly). 3.89 0.61 38.6 % .114 0.61
6/19 W Helms 9-B 0 _
_ 5-5 Wes Helms batted out of turn. 2.27 0.51 36.2 % .058 0.24
6/19 C Coghlan 9-B 1 _ 5-5 Chris Coghlan struck out swinging. 1.81 0.27 41.9 % .045 0.16
6/19 G Sanchez 9-B 2 _
5-5 Gaby Sanchez flied out to right (Fliner (Fly)). 1.39 0.11 46.4 % .036 0.10
6/19 E Bonifacio 8-B 1 12_ 5-5 Emilio Bonifacio advanced on double steal to 3B. Cody Ross advanced to 2B. 3.59 0.92 33.0 % -.106 -0.49
6/19 C Ross 8-B 1 1_3 5-5 Cody Ross reached on fielder’s choice and error to third (Grounder). Hanley Ramirez scored on error. Jorge Cantu advanced to 2B on error. Error by Evan Longoria. 5.16 1.19 50.9 % -.180 -0.73

Out of order no way to fix.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 17, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions  

Obviously I knew what you meant

but technically Scott Shuman jumped from Princeton to BG, Zach Quate jumped from HV to Charlotte. But at the upper levels, yeah, everyone’s gotten their time in at the upper levels.

My ideal bullpen would be:
Jake McGee
Adam Russell
Kyle Farnsworth
Joel Peralta
Dane De La Rosa
Andy Sonnanstine
Cabral (assuming he pitches alright in the spring. He’d be on a short leash anyway)

Yeah, I’m a bit of a velo fanboy and I know McGee and (especially) De La Rosa probably won’t make it. I’d take Delaney next over Wade, and I’d take Swindle over Ramos if it came to that.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Feb 16, 2011 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for mentioning those....I miss out on all the low-minors moves.

I think my ideal would be the same, but with Swindle instead of Cabral and…well, I’m torn on the last one. I could go with either Delaney, Wade, or Gomes….I like all three. I’d probably take Delaney if I had to choose, though. That way we could let Wade and Gomes work in the high minors and see who stands out.

But then again, that’s based strictly on numbers, really. I haven’t read much scouting info on all three, so I’m just going by what I know. I know Swindle probably can’t cut it at the major league level, but the emotional part of me really wants to see him get a shot.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 16, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

what do the pirates take for the loser of the hanrahan/meek "closer" battle*?

*(i.e. the privilege to close 3-4 games a month and leverage that for a bigger payday elsewhere)

I pegged a ruggiano and/or anderson for that trade, but obviously that’s moot as the pirates could have had them fo free.

by SamRay on Feb 16, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions  

The Pirates are probably better (and definitely smarter) than you're giving them credit for here.

They turned Javier Lopez and Octavio Dotel into useful parts. Why would you assume they’ll dump more valuable assets (given control and performance) for nothing?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think McGee, Ekstrom, and Ramos make the most sense for the opening day.

And I would like to nominate Dirk Hayhurst for the Joaquin Benoit position (comes back from injury to have a career year).

A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Feb 16, 2011 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

Al Reyes and Trever Miller are coming back?

Who are you referring to? I think by Reyes you might mean Ramos, but Miller??

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Feb 16, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Anthony and Adam

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha, he's talking about the Rule 5 Draft.

And questioning why the Rays took Cabral, I believe.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 16, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Because once two players from an organization are taken, that's it for that org

So once the #1 and 2 picks were Indians, no one else could take an Indian

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Feb 16, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think that's true

I had read the contrary severl times but figured I’d ask Kevin Goldstein if he knew the answer,

  Just tweeted Kevin Goldstein and his response is below:

Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
Sure. RT @MrNegative1: @Kevin_Goldstein Quick Question: Can a team lose more than 2 players in Rule 5 draft.
2 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

MrNegative1 MrNegative
@Kevin_Goldstein Quick Question: Can a team lose more than 2 players in Rule 5 draft. The Q&A needs an entry on Snopes.

by MrNegative1 on Feb 16, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

ahhh

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

McGee, Ramos, Ekstrom seem to be the most likely to make it

Given experience and performance. Swindle might be better than Ramos, but he’s not on the 40, so weighing that against him a bit at the present time.

PIZZA?!?

by Transplanted on Feb 16, 2011 4:45 PM EST reply actions  

I'm thinking the 40-man shouldn't be that big a concern, since we have players we can drop from it with no problem.

Cabral is there and we have 5 (right?) catchers on it. So at least for one or two pitchers, I don’t think it’d be a problem.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Feb 16, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

With match-ups being the key at this point, Rays will need at least two lefties out of ST

McGee being used in the pen, doesn’t mean he necessarily will make the team out of ST. Assuming he does (and Howell not ready until May), the Rays have very little experience from the left side(McGee 5 IP, Ramos 23 IP and Swindle only 11 IP in the majors). With the lefthanded line-ups the Rays will face in the East, two lefties are going to be critical, IMO. Swindle did pitch well at Durham which may give him the inside track for a spot. Howell’s experience and returning to form could be the biggest factor in stabilizing the pen both as a lefty and possible back end arm.

Also the Rays(since 2008) have always had at least one or two righthanders that are effective sinker ball pitchers with high groundball rates against RH’ed batters. Hammel(1.32 career) and Bradford in 2008(3.90 career), Cormier in 2009(1.66 career) and 2010, and Qualls last year (1.96 career). Eckstrom demonstrated last season that he also has a heavy sinker and got more effective as the year went on. If he can show more control, his high GB(1.86 career) rate plays well in those situations. Adam Russell has very similar ground ball numbers as Eckstrom, so I could see both of them filling the role of RH’ed ground ball relievers in 2011. While not a GB guy, Juan Cruz may be just as important a key(like Howell) in putting together a shut down late game pen, as well.

by budman3 on Feb 17, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I would like a trade so we can have one more good pitcher

Like Brad Ziegler to the ball club. We don’t know what we are going to get from Cruz and Howell later in the year so I would like one other pitcher who is proven to be a solid bullpen arm.

by MPDevils on Feb 16, 2011 4:53 PM EST reply actions  

I am a big fan of Brandon Gomes

And I also think Jake McGee should be the lefty out of the pen, we can have a 2nd when JP is back. 3rd one is Wade I guess but I wish Cruz was ready.

I would go with (assuming this is May)

McGee
Howell
Farnsworth
Russell
Peralta
Gomes (unless Cruz is also ready by May)
Sonnanstine

That other battle, I think Lopez is a better hit but not by enough with Elliot Johnson’s ability to play anywhere, good speed and good defense. That is the perfect guy off the bench.

Under construction

by joeybw on Feb 16, 2011 6:39 PM EST reply actions  

Woah

that is the same Matt Bush.

"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady

by westbrook on Feb 16, 2011 11:55 PM EST reply actions  

This is my question about the necessity of having a designated closer.

If designated closers may get many saves and even a high % of saves despite having otherwise poor or mediocre stats, why do we value the role so highly?

I have heard or read a number of suggested answers.

The most credible one in my view is that by designating a closer the manager can set up the rest of his bullpen more effectively. The reason is that without such a role, he might have to have relievers get ready in the bullpen in anticipation of events that never happen, and that would be dangerous to their health if they were constantly getting ready but not always being used.

A second and related argument is that relievers need to know their role to be effective. So knowing who closes also trickles down to knowing who gets the 7th and 8th innings as well.

The only other argument I have heard is that there is some special quality certain pitchers have that allows them to get that final out, a quality other relievers lack.

Are there any other explanations?

As for the third explanation, I dismiss that out of hand. Every year, new closers emerge, often from the pack of relievers who the previous year were not considered closer material. While it may be true that at the margins some pitchers cannot take the pressure of the last inning, I do not think the ability to handle it is particularly rare. The great majority of good relievers are perfectly capable of closing out games.

The second argument seems to me equally weak. It may be that recent patterns have created such a psychological trap, but no matter the inning, the pitcher’s role is exactly the same-get outs and don’t let the other team score. There is some logic to establishing roles such as the ground ball pitcher or the strikeout pitcher, but that has nothing to do with which inning it is.

As for the first argument, I think the concern is overrated. No doubt a manager has to be wary about overworking his relievers in the bullpen, but the very fact that avoiding designating a closer gives him more flexibility means he can utilize the bullpen more fully. If he does not like his best reliever to come in with men on base already, he uses others. If he wants him to start the 7th because he thinks his starter is tiring, no problem. If he has been throwing, use him, even if the score has gotten out of hand. There may be some residual bad effect in that he may not be available the next day in a tighter situation, but why do we think that problem arises more often than allowing 7th inning leads to disappear because of an unwillingness to use your best reliever then?

This mania for acquiring a “known quantity” as a closer seems to me built on fallacious thinking. I think far more important is building a deep bullpen and using each reliever in the situation when he may be most effective. And that has nothing to do with which inning it is; it has to do with the situation-who is at bat, what are the other team’s options and so on. That is not bullpen by committee so much as it flexible usage bullpen or bullpen by situation.

by bobr on Feb 17, 2011 1:54 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I agree with just about everything you say in terms of the pros and cons

And while I profess to the traditional closer mentality, the reasoning for changing that approach is valid. But for all the talk about re-defining a bullpen in such a manner, I’ve yet to see a manager bring in his best high leverage (and still universally acccepted “designated closer”) in the 7th inning of a game because the heart of the order is up with a one run lead. Nor have I seen him bring him in the game in the 8th inning and replace him in the 9th with a LOOGY who has the best FIP in the pen against lefties because Utley, Howard and Ibanez will be up to start the inning. How often have you seen a ROOGY come in to start the 9th(leading by a run) to pitch to Albert Pujols and then be replaced by the so-called closer?

Now maybe Maddon is the perfect type of guy that is willing to try this especially with no apparent “closer” on the roster now. He also doesn’t have a guy who is earning 10 million dollars to fill that role either and don’t think that doesn’t play a part in a managers reluctance to embrace this new approach. It may have everything to do with it, like it or not. Can anyone name a manager or a bullpen that they have seen this approach used before on a consistent basis? I’ve seen it done often when a "closer’ needs a day off or is on the mend for a week but never as the regular method of managing the bullpen.

Like I said, the arguements for changing the philosophy of the designated closer has it’s merit..in theory. But until someone puts it in use on a regular basis and it shows to be successful, I’ll remain a traditionalist on this matter.

by budman3 on Feb 17, 2011 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

This argument relies on the fact that the closer is the best reliever on the team

Look at Josh Bard last season. He was better than Papeldouche but he was pitching in the 7th-8th inning on a consistent basis. When Percival was the Rays closer, he was nowhere near the best reliever on the team. That was Howell (who was pitching in the 7th/8th on a regular basis). You don’t want your best reliever to be the closer, that’s going to put them in a lot of situations to waste their talent by facing inferior competition in low-stress situations.

As for “traditional closer mentality” closers have only existed for 30 years (and I think the label only exists because of the ‘save’ stat which was arbitrarily made up and tells you NOTHING about the quality of the pitcher.) Just because most managers don’t bring their ‘closer’ in before the ninth inning doesn’t mean doing it is a smart idea. You admit the idea is valid. Essentially, to me, the idea of having a ‘closer’ has very little merit (besides the marginal theories put forth by bobr) and would be ditched if not for baseball’s tendency to avoid changing what appears to work.

@staplemaniac

by staplemaniac on Feb 17, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Farnsworth in the High Leverage line...?

Some people will never learn….the Rays are in trouble if they break camp with that plan.

by 2005RaysFan on Feb 18, 2011 5:44 PM EST reply actions  

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