What a Difference a Year Makes

by sternfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 6:47 AM EST

The other day i was mulling over the Rays opening day roster for 2011, and was surprised to see that most likely there will only be eleven returnees from the 2010 opening day roster.

Unless a trade or injury occurs only Evan Longoria,Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Kelly Shoppach, BJ Upton, Andy Sonnastine, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis are still here.

In most cases a team changing that many players and having won 97 games and the ALE the season before, this would signal a total rebuild. But this is not any team, it's the Rays run by the great Andrew Friedman. I truly believe barring injury this 2011 offense is better than last season's, and definitely better against tough LHP which shut us down in the ALDS.

If the bullpen comes together and performs league average, the Rays should be competing once again come September.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Printing this out, putting it on my noteboard for future reference...

Agreed though.

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Feb 2, 2011 7:29 AM EST reply actions

And the homer poster of the year award goes to.....

by ballsdeep187 on Feb 2, 2011 7:56 AM EST reply actions

The grass doesnt look as neon as it did a few days ago.

http://www.astroturfusa.com/In-the-News.aspx?id=275

by ballsdeep187 on Feb 2, 2011 7:57 AM EST up reply actions

I'm guessing that is a first layer

Especially since they are saying 25% done.

love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT

by SRQman on Feb 2, 2011 8:59 AM EST up reply actions

Now that I see it during the day, it does still look bright. You're probably right though. It's one of the base layers.

http://www.astroturfusa.com/GameDay-Grass.asp

Steve, is there a way you can change the time stamps, so that it shows the time for the eastern time zone?

by ballsdeep187 on Feb 2, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

Don't we have

some guy named price on this list.
Or was he also booted in the Rays big dump(aka fire sale) lol.
This new team looks great. Go get em boys

by Landlord on Feb 2, 2011 7:57 AM EST reply actions

thanks--corrected

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 8:03 AM EST up reply actions

Psyched, can't wait to run down the Yankees. They're living on name and reputation at this point. Outside of Teix and Cano, that lineup doesn't scare me.

Hell yeah it is.
Any amount of points can be scored week to week. well, besides 1 point. Any number is as likely to be reached as another, since there’s only one of each number, each has the same chance to be hit. IT’s how the syetemof averages works.
by waltermercier on Sep 21, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 2, 2011 8:54 AM EST reply actions

Psyched, can't wait to run down the Yankees. They're living on name and reputation at this point. Outside of Teix and Cano, that lineup doesn't scare me.

love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT

by SRQman on Feb 2, 2011 9:00 AM EST reply actions

Well don't you look dumb

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 2, 2011 9:05 AM EST up reply actions

A-Rods down year last year and also Swisher

wouldve been the 3rd best hitter on the rays….and crawford is gone

So, its fair for me to say, outside of Longoria, the Rays lineup doesnt scare me?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Feb 2, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Would have should have could have

WE are ALE champs .The yanks are wild card T shirt winners.
Go back to choking your chicken billy.

by Landlord on Feb 2, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

That's funny, Swisher had the second highest wRAA and the 2nd highest wOBA among Yankee regulars last year (>200 PA)

So thanks for the complement, I guess.

Dock of the Rays

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 2, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

*compliment

Dock of the Rays

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 2, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Will Ivan Nova be your #2 or #3 SP in your rotation?

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

Psyched, can't wait to run down the Yankees. They're living on name and reputation at this point. Outside of Teix and Cano, that lineup doesn't scare me.

by blackraven on Feb 2, 2011 9:02 AM EST reply actions

Dobber Dobber Dobber Dobber Dobber Dobber Dobber

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 2, 2011 9:06 AM EST up reply actions

SF1 back on his meds.

Topper rarely shows his ignorance, but today is a golden day

Hell yeah it is.

by DeadeyeRR on Feb 2, 2011 9:20 AM EST reply actions

Only 3 from 08 ALE championship opening day roster (Shields, Upton, Sonny)

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 2, 2011 9:37 AM EST reply actions

Maybe there's a story there Z-man

Like how a turnover rate as high as this affects results

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

Psyched, can't wait to run down the Yankees. They're living on name and reputation at this point. Outside of Jorge and Jeter, that lineup doesn't scare me.

by firemangreg on Feb 2, 2011 10:50 AM EST reply actions

I am a relentless optimist about the Rays,

but I have some reservations about this team, although I remain fundamentally optimistic in spite of them.

In projecting future performance, between minor league performance, scouting reports and major league performance over a period of time, I consider major league performance the most reliable. Naturally we look at all three, or at least two in terms of veterans, but it seems to me that people who focus on the risks involved with Manny and Damon look in the wrong place for their pessimistic arguments. Chances are, even if they are in decline, we can expect major league performance from each.

But of the Rays 9 projected starters, 6 have very limited major league performance from which to draw information. The two with the most PAs are Zobrist (1784 over 5 seasons) and Dan Johnson (1429 over 6 seasons). Given the erratic nature of their experience, it isn’t even very conclusive for either.

As for the others, none have even 600 PAs in the majors, i.e. none have a full year yet. Joyce has 575 spread over 3 seasons, Sean Rodriguez and Brignac have 594 & 430 respectively, also over 3 seasons and Jaso has 414 over 2 seasons. What is the likelihood that one or two or more will simply prove unable to handle the majors over the full course of a season as pitchers figure out their weaknesses?

When you add this to a bullpen cobbled together out of inexperienced relievers or pitchers who have only 1 season of success behind them, the dangers facing the Rays are more scary.

There are excellent reasons for thinking the Rays will remain serious contenders, most of which have been discussed here and elsewhere, and I am in no way suggesting that pessimism is legitimate. But in the interests of balance, caution is also worthwhile.

by bobr on Feb 2, 2011 11:12 AM EST reply actions

If we are talking about over optimistic projections, I would add Hellickson to my list.

My concern is not so much for his long term performance and developement, but for his affect on the record this year. His 3 or 4 starts last year were exceptional, but will that carry over to 30 starts in season 1?

Using Davis and Price’s first full years, I would expect him to struggle this season, or at least in the first half of the year.

Here's to swimmin with bowlegged women.

by davelrogers on Feb 2, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Hellickson is much different than either of those pitchers though.

by mr. maniac on Feb 2, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Weren't Shields and Sonny too?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Hellickson is leagues ahead of where Shields ever was prospect wise.

Don’t even get me started on Sonny.

by mr. maniac on Feb 2, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think its impossible to feel good about the pen

I just hope Friedman’s process which is good, and good fortune which is less controllable can continue. If we had signed any of the other relievers we considered last year such as Escobar and Calero, things would have been far different in the pen despite what WAR tells us.

I am probably less concerned with Zo than you, but I am concerned about DanJo, Reid, SRod and to a lesser extent Joyce. The good news is they can play platoon roles if need be given our flexibility. The other good news is no matter how inconsistent the bats are, the gloves should be solid across the board except maybe DanJo.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 2, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

I'm concerned about Brignac and Jaso

and if Zobrist doesn’t rebound, he stops being an everyday player

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 2, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

Every fan of every team

has the same feelings and reservations.I aleviate mine by looking at what the opponants are putting up against us.We don’t have to be perfect,just better.
Another thing I look at is depth and versatility.You are right,one or more of these players will not live up to projections’
If these 2 don’t work,I depend on a Tommy Rancel article or my 420 skills.

by Landlord on Feb 2, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions