Kelly Shoppach
R.J. Anderson comments on Shoppach at The Process Report and it led me to look up his career numbers vs. lefties.
I do not understand why there is such hostility among some people towards him. It is true his overall numbers were terrible last year, and it is also true that his entire career vs. lefties only reflects 361 plate appearances. But even with last year being his poorest performance in his career, his success has been remarkably consistent and good.
Here are the numbers:
Career: 306 PAs: .286/.381/.568
2010: 103 PAs: .261/.369/.455
2009: 70 PAs: .304/.420/.625
2008: 104 PAs: .304/.373/.576
2007: 41 PAs: .265/.390/.735
2006: 39 PAs: .314/.368/.629
He has also hit a home run approximately every 14.67 ABs off lefties in his career.
For anyone, but especially a catcher, those seem excellent numbers as a platoon player. Even in an off year he had an OPS of .824, and while the sample size total remains small, it seems to suggest he is better than that. Perhaps Chirinos will be better, but he has no major league experience for us to measure him against Shoppach.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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Had we not signed Manny...
I was warming up to the idea of Shoppach as a RH DH with Chirinos as the primary backup. Still platooning him with Jaso is pretty much an ideal pairing at a position where you’re forced to carry two players.
www.espn1040.com, www.theprocessreport.com, www.bloombergsports.com Twitter @trancel
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 8, 2011 8:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Do you think that the people that criticize him even understand anything you just said, assuming they can read?
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 8, 2011 9:14 PM EST reply actions
without naming names, many are in here daily
so you’re saying DRB has taught them nothing?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
but I think it's OK to be very disappointed with a 170 pt dropoff in slugging from 2009
and performing over 100 points below career average (which was undoubtedly higher before this season
Soon to be the next uprooted Rays fan displaced to Chicago?
Of course, that is understandable.
But isn’t that also the point, that he was performing much worse than usual and was still good vs. lefties? And to the extent his previous 4 seasons mean anything doesn’t it also suggest that he remains a good platoon catcher to keep on the roster and that it is reasonable to expect him to do even better than he did in 2010?
It seems to me the hostility to Shoppach is based on two fallacious approaches. One is to evaluate a player based on what one has observed as if such anecdotal evidence trumps all other evidence. And the second is to be more influenced by the most recent performance than by a broader view of a players’ record. While the most recent may have a bit more importance, it is shortsighted to consider it to the exclusion of all else.
while it's 99% likely he returns to his career average
I’m still going to call him Shitpach. I think he still deserves it.
by raysfaninminnesota on Feb 8, 2011 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
i can't speak for everyone, but i'm not saying he's a shit player. but he did perform below expectations, expectations that were reasonable
given his previous success and skillset. i hope to hell that he bounces back this year and has a 900+ OPS vs. righties. if we’re not in it, deal him at the deadline.
Soon to be the next uprooted Rays fan displaced to Chicago?
Every player has a range of expectations.
When the range is such that one can play at the bottom of the expectations, or even worse than that, and still be a productive player, it makes no sense to wish him off the team. In fact that seems just the sort of player we should treasure. It would be as if Longoria had a .270/.350/.470 season and fans, disappointed in such a mediocre performance, decided he was not worth keeping.
It is thinking like that that makes players like Podsednik so desirable to many fans who at the same time want to run Upton out of town. One exceeds expectations and remains barely better than replacement; the other disappoints but is still more valuable.
If there is evidence that due to age or injury Shoppach will continue to decline (evidence I do not think is there) it would make sense to replace him fast. I can understand fans preferring Chirinos based on scouting reports, but am dubious that he is ready and trust the front office to make a proper decision on that score.
The only other argument that makes sense to me is that Shoppach’s terrible performance against righties make him so limited that the Rays would be better off with someone slightly worse against lefties but at least acceptable vs. righties. I don’t agree, but can recognize some logic to that.
Striking out north of 54% of the time against righties is alarming. (Career 39.1%)
He faced RHP 44% of the time, the lowest rate of his career (previous low 68%). It seems like ideal platoon usage given his split performance, but it raises the question of how much the difficulty increases when you see something that is already difficult less and less.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Some of it is probably because very few Rays fans were familiar with Shoppach before he came here
and in the one season we have experienced his bat first-hand he wasn’t very good overall. He should be fine this season.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on Feb 9, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Some of it is probably because very few Rays fans were familiar with Shoppach before he came here
and in the one season we have experienced his bat first-hand he wasn’t very good overall. He should be fine this season.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on Feb 9, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
It's amazing how much animosity can be focused @ the back-up catcher
When most aren’t even very good-Shoppach still posted a 0.4WAR.
It’s just all those PA vs RHP that lead to a .114/.232/.200 (.210 wOBA) that really were not fun to watch-but that’s not his job.
PIZZA?!?
He's the highest paid backup catcher in baseball though.
With Manny and Damon here and nothing left on the reliever market, I’ve come to terms with paying a backup/part-time catcher 3mil. It sucks, but at this point it doesn’t really matter.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
by Vin on Feb 9, 2011 6:24 AM EST up reply actions
at this point, we have approximatively a $40mil payroll
isn’t that the bottom line issue?
If Shoppach stays injury free and is still at a power loss by May i’d agree he needs to be replaced, but until then let’s see if he can return to norm
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
And those weren't just situational, when he's already in the game & a RHP comes in to pitch
1/3 of his starts were against RHP. That’s a lot for something that isn’t his job. If 1/3 of David Price’s pitching appearances were out of the bullpen, would you say that relief pitching wasn’t his job?
Job as in, expecting success from him vs RHP
He’s not very successful vs RHP-so expectations should be reduced.
PIZZA?!?
by Transplanted on Feb 9, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
There are a couple things at play here
1) He’s highly paid for a part time player.
2) While it’s true he hits lefties well, he is not used solely against lefties. And he is atrocious against. righties.*
3) He was more than awful the last time we saw him. So there’s a good bit of ‘what have you done for me lately’ to it.
4) #3 is compounded by the fact that virtually no one (who doesn’t visit this site anyway) wanted to see him playing in the first place. When everyone and their Uncle Bob already wants to see you dropped off the Skyway, but the manager starts you anyway, AND YOU ACTUALLY DO WORSE THAN EXPECTATIONS…well, why would you expect people to embrace him?
*Admittedly, this is not Shop’s fault. But criticizing his usage would be a slap at St. Joe, which is verboten.
But he apparently has not been awful.
He has simply not been as good as we hoped, but still better than average against lefties.
I do not understand your #4. Are you saying that people who don’t visit DRB are the ones who never wanted to see him here? I don’t know if that’s true, but if it is, so what? They were wrong. As for this site, I am pretty sure there was general satisfaction with the deal that brought him here, and for good reason.
I don’t think it is verboten to criticize Maddon. I like him very much and would not exchange him for any other manager in the game, but that does not mean I have to agree with everything he does. In any case, I haven’t studied the reasons Shoppach was used so often vs. righties. It may be that Maddon does it less in the future. That is what happened with Choate. In 2009 he was used almost as often vs. righties as lefties (41.5%) but the next year that fell to 26%
Anyway, it seems to me a major point of this site is not to accept the common view but to dig deeper to evaluate players more accurately. Regardless of the reasons for people wanting Shoppach gone, and regardless of the gap between expectations (which may not be reasonable anyway) and performance, the object should be to support keeping a player who provides value. And the bottom line is that despite superficial appearances, Shoppach provided value and promises to continue to do so.
#4 refers to the final game of the playoffs
The only place I saw anyone defending the starting of Shop in that last game against Texas was here. Shop utter failure in that game confirmed to the masses that they were right, Joe was wrong, and Shop sucks. That’s just the nature of people.
And I like Joe also. I think he is the best manager out there for this team. But he still does things usage-wise that infuriate me, and it is difficult to cope with the deification piled on him sometimes.
Well said.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
by Steve Slowinski on Feb 9, 2011 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
Kelly Shoppach has taken over for Jason Bartlett as
‘Most hated Ray’
Well done DRB posters
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Jaso was a pleasant surprise
Shopp was supposed to compete with Navi, and he won that battle.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Just to be clear, I don't hate Kelly Shoppach
I think he has a role to play which he does fairly well (and for which he is overpaid), and that he is sometimes misused. But what I am really puzzled by are people who are surprised that lots of people, who generally don’t have the time and/or take the effort to dig deep into the numbers) hate Kelly Shoppach. There is ample anecdotal evidence to support Shop-hatred, and even some superficial and surface-level statistical justification. We should not be surprised that someone ‘who cost us the deciding game in the playoffs!!!1’ is reviled. Just ask Bill Buckner.
I get all that.
I just cannot understand why posters here should fall for such nonsense. First, there is almost never ample anecdotal evidence. The whole point about anecdotal evidence is that it may serve to illustrate a point, but not to defend it.
I think most people here are not at all surprised that lots of people think silly things about baseball. The site is dedicated to exposing silly things for what they are. When I say I do not understand, I am responding to posters here who lash out at Shoppach because they have seen him fail at games they have watched or because he played poorly in an important series. I am not responding to comments on the Heater.
There is nothing wrong with expressing frustration and ranting about a player’s poor play-an error or strikeout in a crucial situation, a bad running decision, a gopher ball et al. There is plenty of space given over to that on this blog. But when the issue becomes one of making a case for keeping or dropping a player, or of evaluating his use to the team, it behooves us to put such emotional responses aside and consider evidence and reasoning.
I think it's a different kind of hate.
The anti-Bartlett crowd was (mostly) in response to his ridiculous MVP award.
The Shoppach hate seems to stem mostly from being compared to Jaso. It really went into overdrive after his 0-9 performance or whatever against Lee.
And the rest of the line up did so well against him
not to mention how the Yankees did v Cliff Lee
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Chirinos has caught just 170 games in his pro career
Let him go to Durham, play daily and develop his catching skills mainly how to call a game, set up hitters and handle pitchers
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I like the idea of Chirinos honing his craft in AAA on a near daily basis behind the plate.
Shoppach’s presence decreases need to rush Chirinos. Chirinos could blossom into primary catcher material.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
With that in mind.
Ashley should be catching down in Montgomery in order for him to acquire as much playing time behind the plate as possible. Lobaton will then be the backup catcher in Durham.
Ashley doesn't need the work
He’s MLB ready defensively. Maybe if he DH’s he can concentrate on the offensive side of his game in AAA
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
That's a good point
Or you could just make him the big clubs backup catcher now & trade Shop for a relief pitcher…
You'd be sacrificing a ton of offense
Like going from Longo to Russ Canzler
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
But picking up defense.
And is Ashley that much of a downgrade? After all, it is backup catcher and he could go verse lefties.
Vs Shoppach?
I’m the biggest Ashley mark there is, but he;s nowhere near as valuable as SHopp vs LHP. Navi, maybe.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Some would say .250 vs LHP is a conservative gap between the two in OPS
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
.823 in 10 for Shopp
Maybe .200. The projections for Ashley are generally south of .600
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
You have to think Ashley is some kind of defensive beast to consider them anywhere near equal.
He’d be a complete joke at the plate.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
He's hit .244/.333/.359 in Double-A as a player in his mid-20s.
And he had a BB/K under 0.5. His caught stealing rate is under 40% (38%) too, he’s not Yadier Molina (47% career) out there. I don’t see the allure whatsoever. Maybe he’ll be a manager in the future, but I’d rather him never see the light of day in Tampa.
Especially not if it means getting rid of a clearly talented player.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2011 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
You don't understand the hate?
He hit .196 with a .313 BABIP so it wasnt bad luck, while striking out 45%(!!) of the time. He spent almost half the season facing righties, against whom he hit .111. If you think that just because he’s passable against lefities he becomes valuable thats like saying its okay to have a starter that only gets guys out every other inning. The only way this becomes acceptable if he NEVER faces a rightie.
I know its fun to try and fight the “common-fan perception” with stats but the stats tell you he was attorcious 44% of the time… which really can’t be ignored.
With a lefty catcher in the fold, it is possible to get Shoppach a much more favorable platoon split this year even beyond last seasons
He was splitting primary duties with Navi for awhile since both catchers struggle vs RHP. There will be day/night issues where he faces LHP but I think % vs RHP will be lower than last years. He’s not passable vs LHP, he’s very good.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I sure hope so
I’m not oblivious to the fact that he is valuable against lefties but its also unfair to claim he was an overall asset when nearly half the time he performed about as compentently as I would have with a bat.
Here's what you need to do
Take a look at his stats in ‘08, the only time a)he’s been healthy and b) got a chance to play ever day v both LHP and RHP do to injury to Martinez
I think you’ll see a quite different Shoppach then what we saw last year
In both ’09 & ’10 he suffered long extended injuries that may have hampered his results
Let’s see what he does if and when healthy
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I'm not arguing against him going forward
The OP stated he doesnt understand why people hate on him. Well most people here(meaning Tampa Bay, not Draysbay) only have his 2010 season as a frame of reference. To try and claim any positives from that season is pretty futile, it was attrocious. I have no problem with us retaining him and hoping for regression going forward but the fact is that he was outperformed by Pat Burrell and we have every right to revile him for that.
I understand fully
why many fans in TB hate him. For the same nonsensical kinds of reasons that they hate Upton, and for the same kinds of reasons that the people who sat in my section hated Choate. When I post here, I am not talking to those people.
If you look at the numbers, there were positives in 2010. And while people may feel justified in reviling him in spite of evidence to the contrary, it does not make them right nor does it really matter when the issue is whether he is an asset to the Rays.
I don't know about that
Shoppach: 0.4 WAR 2010
Upton: 3.4 WAR 2010
I don’t think it’s nonsense to “hate” a player who was as bad as he was (I don’t think it’s actual hate of the player, in Shoppach’s case, just lack of faith that he will perform which leads to disdain when he comes to the plate, which I would say is justifiable).
People hate Upton for entirely different reasons. Because they’re racist.
@staplemaniac
I'm not saying Shoppach is better than Upton
Thats insane. A stat that uses playing time is the wrong method though.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
You're right
But He’s only a “backup” because he performed poorly last year.
This team didn’t bring him in to backup Jaso/Navi. He was brought in to get a majority of the playing time
Jaso's hot start won him the job
Look at Jaso’s monthly splits. Shoppach didn’t have time to fail before Mikeymania ran wild.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
As I said,
for the same kinds of reasons, not the same reasons. By that I mean for reasons that are unrelated to their actual performance or role or purpose or usage et al. I won’t argue with the racist explanation, but I think Upton’s unpopularity among many is due to his strikeouts, his reputation as a lazy player, his failure to live up to his perceived potential as a superstar and for his low BA among other things.
I think we have to distinguish between reasons that people “feel” as they do (I don’t want to use the word “think”) and the reasoning behind people’s judgments. The reasons many people often make judgments are often irrational and irrelevant to any legitimate appraisal. They are often due to prejudices, uncritical adherence to tradition, hype and loud voices and the like. The reasoning has to do with the evidence, logic and understanding of context.
In Shoppach’s case, it was reasonable to be disappointed as he did not perform up to his norm. But when a backup catcher has an .824 OPS against lefties, which is supposed to be his primary role, it should at least provide evidence, logic and context so that reasoning would see beyond the apparent. And as FreeZorilla points out, WAR is not very useful when comparing starters to backups, nor is it particularly valuable even in comparing part-timers as their usage, or the circumstances which lead to their usage, influence it too heavily.
But I think it's perfectly justifiable to dislike a player like Shoppach
He’s a backup at best, can’t hit right handers to save his life (of whom there are far more than there are left-handed pitchers) and is the fifth highest paid player on the team. Yeah, he’s a backup and yes he can hit lefties. I think he will be far better this season than he was last. I believe in the regression. But I also could understand how someone being completely reasonable could think he sucks.
And I still disagree with you lumping in Upton haters with Shoppach haters. I believe that Shoppach’s detractors exist almost entirely because of his poor performance.
@staplemaniac
Comparing people by where their salary ranks without taking into consideration of the system's effect on said salaries is pretty silly
3M was an average salary on this team of veterans last year, it’s a meaningless point.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
3M is the average salary for a backup catcher?
What do you mean by the “system’s effect?” The Rays are a team with a small payroll. Every contract and every dollar makes a difference. If the Rays payroll is at 42 million right now then he’s being accounting for a little over 7% of our payroll, which (again) I feel is disproportionate to how much he is worth. It’s a valid point worth bringing up.
This is all devil’s advocate BTW
@staplemaniac
And what I meant by the system's effect is that you can't pay Shopp 400K
Just because Jaso only got paid 400K doesn’t account for his worth to the team. Saying that Shopp is a bad player for making 3M is the same as saying that Beej is a bad player for getting awarded >5M in arby this year
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
He's not a bad player for making that much
But to a team with the Rays finances why pay a guy who essentially only helps the team against left-handed pitchers $3M?
@staplemaniac
I think we simply disagree on what is justifiable.
I do not think it justifiable to dislike a backup because he is a backup nor do I think it justifiable to arrive at an extreme judgment (“he sucks”) without careful analysis. I may understand why people do that, but I do not respect it and I certainly do not think that being unreasonable about something that is subject to reason is a reasonable position.
As for the Upton comparison, ignore it if you like. It is only an illustration of a point. But I repeat that in both cases the poor performance is only based on superficial consideration. Whether there are other even less admirable reasons for the Upton reputation is not meaningful. In both cases, the contempt is based on irrational, oversimplified and misinterpreted factors.
Incidentally, I do think it possible to make the argument that Shoppach is not the best option for the Rays (although I don’t really see a viable alternative as I prefer Chirinos at AAA to start the season and don’t think Lobaton or Ashley are legitimate alternatives). I think Kericr makes a good argument along those lines. I am not sure I agree, but at least there is reasoning in it.
No Way
Chirinos needs this season at AAA. That’s the biggest long-term value Shoppach has for the Rays at this point is that he gives Chirinos a chance to play everyday in Durham. I love that the Rays FINALLY have some catching depth as well. It’s been some time since they’ve had decent/noteworthy catchers all throughout the system (O’Conner,Bailey, Ashley, Vogt, Chirinos, plus control of Jaso for some time at the Major League level)
I agree that it is stupid (or unjustifiable) to arrive at an extreme judgement without careful analysis, but my point is that even with careful analysis, you can rather easily make an arguement that Shoppach doesn’t really help the Rays all that much. The point that he only succeeded against left-handed pitchers doesn’t change his season line, which did suck, and which also reflects the way the Rays appeared to use him. A .308 overall OBP isn’t good. Unless he is strictly platooned I don’t think he achieves much value in 2011. Is that not justifiable?
@staplemaniac
The average AL catcher had a line of
.245/.312/.374
Shopp had a line of .196/.308/.342, overall after having knee surgery in the first month of the season. It’s not a big-bat position and yet he gives us one (career slash of .234/.324/.433) so I think I’m not going to complain about what he brings to the table. If he gets off to an abysmal start and by mid-May is doing jack squat then maybe you re-evaluate how you feel about Chirinos, but you at least have to give him the chance to fail.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
Just saying you could make an argument that he sucks etc. etc.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on Feb 10, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Shoppach will remain a Ray
Until such time as the Rays find a better RH alternative to him. That might be mid season If Chirinos is an upgrade or if Shoppach can be dealt prior with a veteran type RH’ed catcher replacing him.
If not, get used to him being here.
Yeah, I was going to bring this up... at least he saved us from that disgrace
King Felix should probably give Shopp a thank you R/A, with a no-hitter CC may have won the Cy Young.
by ChiBurbRaysFan on Feb 9, 2011 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I see a marked improvement coming this season and I think he waa=s sonad because healed JMO. In addition, a C whio starts pretty overpaid, we llhje isnr=nt. Having said that, I hope he has some trade value and not because I dislike him but because I am a HUGE Chirinos fan.
Chirinos only has a chance if he js seen as a MIF which I would down. Durham C > Rays backup infielder.
f Shop and a prospect can get us a closer, please do it
Under construction
The thing with Shoppach
The thing I dislike about Shoppach isn’t that he’s horrible against righties, but that the way Maddon deploys him results in him seeing about half his ABs against them. I don’t know if there’s a better way to do it.
If I assume there isn’t, I’d rather have another catcher that’s better against righties than Shopp but worse vs. lefties while upgrading defense. That way, it doesn’t matter what kind of pitcher the catcher faces, at least he’ll have one asset that he can bring to every game that he plays that doesn’t suck something fierce. No, we can’t quantify catcher defense, but I think it’s safe to say that they’re both below average defensively. I can deal with Shoppach for the last year of his contract, but I don’t want to see him resigned.
12-19-2010 - TAMPA, Fla.: The Detroit Lions erased some painful memories by ending the longest road losing streak in NFL history against YOUR Tampa Bay Succaneers.
Also, melanin makes people lazy.
Just for fun I decided to look at how he was used over the course of the year

This shows whether each pitch came from a lefty (1) or a righty (0) over the course of 2010. The moving average line is based on 50 pitch samples and you can see that as the year progressed, Shoppach was used progressively more and more again lefties more than righties. 0.5 would represent a 50-50 split between seeing lefties and righties over each of the 50 pitch samples. Either due to the lack of Jaso early or Maddon giving Shopp a chance to hit righties early, it’s pretty clear that Shopp progressively saw more lefties as the year went along.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 4:04 PM EST reply actions
Interesting
You would think that his line would improve later in the year, but June was his best month (.267/.410/.433 in 40 PAs). July was a disaster (.128/.244/.128 in 46 PAs) and August only marginally better (.178/.275/.400 in 51 PAs). He closed the season with a .222/.317/.417 month+ and 41 PAs. His BABIP explains a bit of it (.208 in July, .412 in June) but it was .273 in August and .375 in Sept/Oct. And he continued to strike out at a horrific rate.
I don’t know that the monthly divisions is a meaningful categorization, but it is curious that his decreased exposure to righties did not seem to affect his performance the way one would think.
Yeah I saw that

As we know good process doesn’t guarantee good results, I just hope his knee is healthy and they continue this trend of using him correctly. For the first time in a while we’re going into a season with two good, complimentary catchers and no Navi. That’s a win.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Also, his K% is pretty hilarious, since only a small portion of the season even shows up on their chart

His BABIP wasn’t very good later in the season and for a guy that doesn’t make a whole lot of contact, he’s going to feel those fluctuations even harder:

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
It's as if not getting him regular ABs affected his performance
So you only get the mashing-lefties-Shop by putting up with the can’t-hit-righties Shop. Otherwise, you get an pretty-good-against-lefties-Shop and an a ‘MY-EYES-MY-EYES-MY-GOD-MY-EYES’-against-righties-Shop.
Yes, I know, fear the small size, and there was injury involved…but that sounds curiously like the dreaded ‘conventional wisdom.’
As far as I know, nobody has ever tied consistent production to consistent playing time, let alone what you are suggesting
Please refer me to where your ideas have been proven so that I don’t dismiss them as conventional wisdom.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
whu?
Conventional wisdom doesn’t need to be proven! That’s how it got to be conventional wisdom.
But seriously, I’m not sure what you’re asking. I know of no study even looking at consistent playing time vs. performance in large split individuals.
Conventional wisdom is often neither
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Feb 9, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
To go back to the beginning,
I initially posted because I found R.J. Anderson’s article that included remarks about Shoppach interesting. It seemed to me to rebut some of the more hostile responses to Shoppach I remembered reading on this site. They came in two forms: outright “he sucks” comments and what I considered unproductive suggestions for trades including him.
I was not and am not particularly interested in why people don’t like him. That seems irrelevant to a discussion of his place on the team. What is relevant is whether he actually is an asset, and whether there are better alternatives available.
Based on his history, and even on his performance (at least in part) last year, it seemed to me that he has value. And given that I think Chirinos needs time at AAA and that I do not think either Lobaton or Ashley can provide any offense at all in TB, I do not see a readily available alternative.
I suppose if Friedman can acquire a better reliever than anyone currently on the staff, it might be a worthwhile gamble to deal Shoppach if necessary, but I still think that leaves the Rays short a backup catcher which may not be critical, but is still a concern, especially as Jaso’s major league experience is a bit short for full confidence. I think the only free agent catcher still unsigned is Bengie Molina who I do not consider an upgrade and who is probably retiring anyway. Perhaps there is someone available in a trade, but we cannot judge that until it happens or at least is rumored, and for now, it means that Shoppach seems the best available, and given his history, perhaps the best in any case.
I have no objection to people ranting their frustrations or pointing out his flaws. But when the next step is to suggest dropping him altogether or replacing him with Ashley or trading him for a nonentity prospect, I think it goes too far. If there is a catcher available that meets Kericr’s criteria it would make for an interesting conversation as to whether that is a good trade-off. But otherwise, we ought to recognize what Shoppach does provide as well as his flaws. The great organizations always spotlight and use a player’s assets rather than focusing on their weaknesses.
Pirates remain intriquing
I still could see a match with the Pirates for a closer but expanding it to include Ryan Doumit and Shoppach. While Doumit has struggled the last two seasons(especially against lefties) he can still hit right handed pitchers well and can hit with power. His w/OBA and OBP is not that much different than Jaso and actually has a higher OPS and Slug Avg. against righties than Jaso. And if he can approach his numbers from 2008, he become a very valuable switch hitting catcher.
The Rays take on 2 million more for one season but that makes acquiring a guy like Hanrahan in a deal for less value as a result. His defense may be a bit below Shoppach but equal to Jaso. There is the possibility that Jaso struggles against RH’ers this season which leads to the advantage of having Doumit. And Doumit could still be moved at the deadline(if needed) or they could buy out his options for .5 million and get a draft pick for him by letting him walk. It doesn’t effect a timetable for Chirinos either.
If Doumit could return to form as against lefties(at least equal to what Shoppach can do) and also be an alternative against righties should Jaso struggle, he may be worth the extra 2 million. But more importantly, if the Rays could acquire Hanrahan(or Meek) at the same time, it might be a consideration. There would be another player or prospect from the Rays going over to make the deal work. It could be a solid(not top) arm going back, and possibly an out of option guy like Fuld(Pirates need a 4/5th OF’er) or an Elliot Johnson(utility IF’er). I still think the Rays might have to consider Beckham(Pirates need a future SS) if they view Lee as jumping ahead of him on the prospect chart
Kelly Shoppach
vs
Ryan Doumit

Kelly has consistently hit LHP well above average and been below average vs RHP (except in 2008, an outlier). Whereas Doumit has been slightly below average vs both LHP and RHP (slightly above average in 2007 and 2008).
Personally, I’d rather keep Shoppach for a year and have Chirinos waiting in the fold to face LHP in the future. Jaso has consistently had an above average wOBA in the minors and in his first full year in the minors. It seems unlikely that he’ll simply collapse this year, and if he does, Doumit isn’t the solution.
As far as the bullpen, I’d like the Rays to sort out what they have this year, as they picked up a bunch of young, interesting arms that are under team control for a while. Between them and what they have on the farm, they should have the foundation worked out heading into 2012.
My concern would be Jaso struggling
The platoon plan goes out the window if Jaso can’t hit righties though. His OBP is based on the walks he gets, not on his hitting and if he doesn’t become a better hitter(and show more power) when pitchers pump strike after strike to him(which they started doing late last season), the Rays may have to go with Shoppach more often than they may want to.
Doumit could be a duel solution, if Shoppach continues his regression and/or pitchers figure out Jaso and he regresses versus righties. Straight up, I might not do the deal but it would give Chirinos maybe one more full year of catching to get more experience and be an impact in 2012. If it brought back a guy like Hanrahan or Meek as well, I have to strongly consider it as the last piece of the puzzle for 2011.
I realize that's your concern and it's unfounded. Longo could hit .240 next year, but it's highly doubtful.

Jaso’s hitting actually stabilized at the end of the year after a down spot around the middle of the season. Meanwhile, his OBP was largely unaffected as you’ll see below

Even when he was hitting poorly, his walks remained because the guy has a ridiculous eye. If you lay one down the middle, he may not hit it out often, but he’ll put it in play. And to say Doumit could be a dual solution is absurd. Kotchman could blow up and have a wOBA of .360 this year too. Neither is at all likely. You are again using regression in the wrong sense. Look up “regression to the mean” it’s not the same as “returning to a previous state.”
Also, the Pirates aren’t going to throw in one of their better young relief pitchers and Doumit for Shoppach. If you think it’s a realistic trade, I don’t really have anything else to say to you.
by firemangreg on Feb 16, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
If you want a OBP guy who makes contact versus lefties, Jaso is your guy
But Doumit is not that far different even comparing a down year for him.
Jaso hit .263, OBP .372, Slug .378 and w/OBA of 341.
Doumit hit .251, OBP .331 Slug .406 and w/OBA of .326
The sample is still small on Jaso and hitting lefties may not even happen for him this year. Doumit could improve to the mean just as much as he has regressed the last 2 seasons but he can still hit lefties very well, compared to Shoppach.
I did however say the Rays would have to add a decent player or two in the deal to get Hanrahan or Meek as well in such a deal but you must have missed that part.
Jaso doesn't need to hit LHP, that's what Shoppach and Chirinos are for.
40 points of OBP is a significant amount though. Also, look at the wOBA graph above. Doumit has been getting worse against LHP since 2008. His hitting versus RHP is the only thing keeping him afloat. Jaso only had 58 PAs against LHP last year but didn’t perform that well. Doumit has been significantly better over his career, but a wOBA of .305 isn’t what you want to see. Platooning the C spot solves these issues, we have a LH C who hits RHP well and a RH C who hits LHP well. Why mess with that?

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