2010 Rays Alumni: Where Are They Now?
by BWoodrum on Apr 28, 2011 7:01 AM EDT
in Features & Analysis
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PrintMany pundits and fans considered the Rays 2010 season as an "all in" year. We had something like 25,000 guys coming off the roster and could not possibly hope to approach .500 in 2011.
Well, 2011 is here now, so let's see how our graduates are faring. Do not forget to ask yourself: Where would we be if only we could have kept them?
Matt Garza -- 0-3, 30.2 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.24 FIP, 1.94 xFIP
Garza has done his part to help the Chicago Cubs Curse by having the league's most crazy results: Despite striking out half the NL, Garza has no wins and a .400+ BABIP, a ~60% LOB rate, and just about the worst luck on earth. Once his fortunes level out, he'll probably have a great year.
Remember, we certainly didn't trade Garza because he was garbage -- we traded him for a hefty haul of awesome (including Sam Fuld). Seeing Garza "succeed" in Chicago should not surprise us.
Carl Crawford -- .163/.209/.233 (17 wRC+), 4 steals
Cahl Crafuhd has been other-worldly terrible since joining the Boston Red Sox. He has 14 hits in 96 PAs (including last night's 0 for 4) and has -- by all reports (including UZR: -2.1 in just 181 innings) -- adjusted very poorly to playing left field in Fenway Park.
It's very unlikely Carl stays this bad. But still, who knows? Maybe he got broke?
Carlos Pena -- .169/.306/.186 (43 wRC+)
In the words of the great Harry Caray: "Ho-lee cow!" Pena has been pretty putrid this season. In 73 PAs, he has no homers and a lone double. Ouch.
It looks like the Cubs are also moving towards platooning Pena with Jeff Baker -- not a bad idea because Pena has never hit lefties well. The problem is: Jeff Baker is a second baseman. The Cubs are so desperate for offense, they have given a second baseman playing time over Pena.
To his credit, Pena has looked strong defensively, which is about the lone bright spot for his season thus far.
Jason Bartlett -- .240/.301/.267 (74 wRC+), 4 steals
Hoodathunk Bartlett's stinker of a slash would be the most impressive of this group? No one. That's who thunk it.
For some reason, UZR gave up on Jason Bartlett a few years ago. Maybe he lost some lateral movement? Maybe he's just getting old? I dunno. Already, though, UZR has this once-defensive-maven at -0.1 runs, which extrapolates to, at best, league average defense for the year.
Joaquin Benoit -- 0-0, 9.3 IP, 0.93 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 3.88 xFIP
Whoa! Some positive news! Benoit, by my count, has had one bad outing (allowing a game-tying run to the Rangers on April 14th). The rest have all been scoreless appearances. In total, he has 2 shutdowns and only the 1 meltdown.
Did I mention the Detroit Tigers are paying this non-closer about as much as we pay Johnny Damon?
Dan Wheeler -- 0-0, 7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 3.34 xFIP
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Dan Wheeler is giving up a bunch of home runs -- oh, you've heard it before? Well it's true. He has no shutdowns and one meltdown so far this season, and for some reason, the Red Sox seemed determined to un-ROOGY him.
Last year, Maddon had Wheeler face lefties only 22.5% of the time (and usually against super weak lefties or ones with reverse splits). This year, he has faced 15 lefties and 18 righties -- to generally disastrous results.
Rafael Soriano -- 1-1, 10.1 IP, 7.84 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 6.58 xFIP
Woof! Things could hardly go worse for ol' Shirt Untuck. He's walking more batters than he's striking out, and he's generally looking terrible.
Am I forgetting anyone? Fernando Perez? He's been caught stealing 6 times and is slugging .245 (he's getting on base at a nice clip, though) -- all in AAA. Oh, and Zach Rosscup has a 3.38 ERA in High-A for the Cubs right now.
Anyone else?
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Ah! I knew I forgot someone!
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I knew
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
I did this for a reason...
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/2/6/1978755/the-rays-offseason-in-spreadsheet
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Argh! I knew this was out there somewhere, but I couldn't remember where.
Thanks for the link — I’ll maybe update this in a few weeks or so.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Sure thing.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
Benoit has been ok, but last night
he went .1 inning giving up 2 hits and 1 BB for 3 runs (2 earned). 15 of his 26 pitches were strikes. Overall, his ERA is 2.7 and his WHIP is .90
Choate is being Choate. In 12 PAs, lefties have 2 hits and 6 Ks and an OPS of .333. In 8 PAs, righties have 2 hits, 2 BBs, 1 HR and an OPS of 1.333. I think in this last series he was brought in to face Ethier 3 times and got him out all 3 times.
Cormier’s ERA is 10.13 over 8 innings and 5 appearances. That comes from 13 hits, 4 BBs, 1 HR and 3 Ks.
Balfour has pitched 9 innings over 10 games and given up 1 home run, 5 BBs and 9 Ks for 3 runs. He was terrible in his second outing taking the loss but has been effective in the other 8. He did give up a run in one of those 8 games but the A’s were ahead by 3 runs at the time. He put 2 on base to start the next inning when the A’s had gone up by 5 and was relieved at that point. One of those runners scored.
I can, we got that guy off the scrap heap
He is a very specialized bullpen component for which there are ample cheap replacements. You wanted a multi-year investment in a LOOGY? Not only did we sign Ramos for less than half of Randy’s 2010 salary, but we also had 1.5 in-house replacements, McGee and a rehabbing Howell.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 28, 2011 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Swindle would probably do fine as a LOOGY too.
If John Jaso somehow strikes out, it means you didn’t do your job right as an umpire.
by raysrule44 on Jul 9, 2010 8:37 PM CDT
And finally Dioner Navarro
in typical Navi fashion, he’s had but one PA this season, and guess what, he did the very Navi GIDP
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Gorged into delicious pies?
This comment was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily reflect views or opinions.
by Passionate Apathy on Apr 28, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I am not surprised in the least that CC is NOT adjusting well to the Monster
He’s far better off being in an expansive left field where he can run, with a fence he can actually jump against to rob home runs.
"Prepare yourself, you know it's a must, you've gotta have a friend in Jesus." -Norm Greenbaum
Thank you for telling me what to expect from Matt Garza.
Oh wait, I have an English degree, so I ALREADY KNEW THAT.
TEAM CIROC OUT
@thekidpow
Garza would be doing better if he didn't have garbage for teammates
ex/ Starlin Castro’s defense at SS
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
Yarp
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
7 HOMERS SO FAR THOUGH
where are my gifs? is this a new thread? you guys are litl fucking sluts. uck you guys. i bet you guys tmpons in the womines bathromms and pay 75 cents for each ne. fuck you
by daveh33 on Sep 3, 2010 11:09 PM EDT reply actions
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 28, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I am starting to think there may be some flaw in FIP.
Is Garza with the Cubs right now all too different than SHields last year? High Ks, now alot of walks, and pitches getting hammered.
Just look at Garza’s batted ball data. For his career, he has a 18.9 LD%, 40.1 GB%, and a 41.0 FB%. This year, those numbers (respectively) are 27.7, 50.6, and 21.7. Ouch! No wonder his BABIP is so high. Think of the Cub’s defense with those ratio’s. Add in that 0% of his FBs have gone for homers, and I don’t think he is all too unlucky.
It's a helpful stat but it shouldn't be viewed as the end all be all. IMO
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
It's flawed in the sense that "Fielding Indepedent Pitching" does not exist in the real world
Like WMDs in Iraq.
It's flawed in that it doesn't reflect the game narrative. As you said, you can't completely isolate a pitcher from his defense.
But, it’s a pretty quick and easy way to tell us how the pitcher is performing at the things we think he can control.
@ptSuttery
It also assumes that the pitcher has control over strikeouts
In truth, hitters play a rather large factor in strikeouts. Nothing is ‘independent.’
But I’ll agree it’s a handy measure. Just flawed.
How is that telling you anything other than he is getting unlucky? Or to put it better: he is getting screwed by his defense?
He’s striking people out, walking few, hasn’t given up any home runs, and has a high groundball percentage. Yet hits are falling in. That’s the definition of unlucky.
@ptSuttery
The "hasn't given up homeruns" falls under the lucky part. His HR/FB is 0% in Wrigley Field.
Also, notice how the LDs skyrocketed up. So did the GBs, which have a higher BABIP than FBs, which went down.
I just disagree that strikeouts are so valuable. For example, look at Shields last year. While he was unlucky (probably less than we thought though), he was striking batters out while getting hammered.
Strikeouts prevent the abysmal defense behind him from fucking up ground balls though
The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "how bout Fergs at nest home stand..SuperCyberMan?"
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 28, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
His tERA 2.68. His xFIP is 1.93.
Basically, you’re challenging the entire foundation of current pitching metrics. Obviously his strikeouts are unsustainable, but he’s doing everything you want a pitcher to do: strike people out, limit your walks, generate groundballs and don’t give up homeruns.
@ptSuttery
This is what I was gonna say.
I don’t see tRA used often anymore…Why is that?
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on Apr 28, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
It had to be calculated manually in the past and I don't know how often fangraphs updates it.
I’ll buy the argument that Garza’s performance is unsustainable. It’s not like he suddenly turned into Roy Halladay over night. He’s historically been a fly ball pitcher and I would be shocked if that didn’t correct itself.
But, he HAS been unlucky. He’s pitched extremely well and gotten screwed.
@ptSuttery
Pretty hard to enjoy all that sunshine when you've got a roof over your head
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Just scaled differently
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Apr 28, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Much too early to put stock in tRA/tERA, though same with FIP/xFIP/ERA
One bad performance or one great performance throws everything out of whack
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
It requires a pretty large sample, I believe
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
FIP doesn't tell you the whole story - it never does - but to say it's broken is a bit extreme.
It does what it’s meant to do: predict future results better than ERA. It’s simple and isn’t attempting to be the be-all-end-all pitching stat, and it shouldn’t be treated as such.
Using Shields as an argument re: last year is rather misleading, since if you look at his K%, it didn’t actually change all that much. He was simply lasting fewer innings and seeing more batters per inning, so his K/9 looked like it spiked like crazy. Garza – he’s legitimately turned into a strikeout beast.
Have you watched Garza pitch to say if he’s getting hammered or not? I can’t say I have, and I wouldn’t be comfortable citing LD% all by itself to show that people are ripping the ball against him. It’s a really small sample right now, and it may just be that some of the classifications have been weird. He’s also not letting up as many balls in play, with all the Ks, so that’s likely not as many LDs as you’d think.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I watched Garza's start versus the Rockies.
Even if I didn’t, I’d be more likely to trust FIP than LD% after five starts.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, I wrote a piece on it.
At the time, the Cubs staff BABIP was like .340. So yeah, pardon me for being skeptical it’s Garza that’s the issue.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that infield defense isn't exactly the best....that can't help.
I love Castro and his range is great, but the errors hurt.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he'll be fine. You don't go from the ALE to the NLC and transform from a fine SP to an awful one.
Unless he’s hurt, and the periphs don’t spell that out.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
My guess is he'll be more than fine...I do like him pitching in the NLC.
Even with his .414 BABIP, he has a 4.11 ERA. He could have a pretty big year, even with his Ks and HRs regressing a lot from where they are now.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, his ERA is 4.11 now?
Why are we even talking about him then?
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats the thing.
Combine Garza’s linedrive troubles and the Cubbies defense, and his BABIP at .400 may not be so odd.
Dude, you don't know if he has line drive problems.
LD% is a very flaky measure which is skewed by scorers. It’s like the earned run argument all over again. Use balls in air if you want, but I wouldn’t place this much emphasis on LD%. Not four starts worth.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
What do you suggest I use then?
I doubt the line drives are off by that much. If you want to argue a small small percentage, then that is fine with me.
Do yourself a favor and Google Colin Wyers articles on the subject.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Here I got one for you:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-is-a-fly-ball-a-line-drive/
If you still have that much confidence in those numbers after reading that, then we’re just going to disagree.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Find it. I'm not going to do the legwork for you.
I gave you a link and I gave you the Maddon usage data before. I’m not your assistant. You can use Google and the THT/BPro archives like anyone else.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn't meant to be catty either. This stuff is pretty easy to find (look at how quickly I gave you that article).
Wyers has written a lot about this. Author archives alone will give you some data.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The money quote:
In Arlington, a batter is 18% more likely to have a batted ball coded as a LD, which may have helped Milton Bradley to have the 2nd highest LD rate in 2008 – while in Minneapolis, it’s 20% less likely. Four of the lowest six LD rates belong to Michael Bourn, Geoff Blum, Ty Wigginton and Hunter Pence, and Minute Maid Park has the second lowest LD park factor at 0.82. This is not saying that Houston batters hit fewer line drives – it’s that Houston and it opponents both have 18% fewer balls scored as liners in Houston than they do on the road.
So yeah, I just don’t trust that data very much.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Very good article.
I guess it does very quite a little.
THe reason I asked you to give proof was that you brought forth the statement. I was simply asking you to back it up.
Fair, you just have to realize I take most of this info as a given.
I worked with the data on FG for a few years and I know it tends to be taken as gospel rather than what it is.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, you don't know if he has line drive problems.
LD% is a very flaky measure which is skewed by scorers. It’s like the earned run argument all over again. Use balls in air if you want, but I wouldn’t place this much emphasis on LD%. Not four starts worth.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
It's still odd. A .400 BABIP is always odd for a pitcher.
Highest full season BABIP for a starting pitcher over the last 20 years: .355 by Kevin Brown in 1994.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude, you don't know if he has line drive problems.
LD% is a very flaky measure which is skewed by scorers. It’s like the earned run argument all over again. Use balls in air if you want, but I wouldn’t place this much emphasis on LD%. Not four starts worth.
@ptSuttery
I feel like Tango is always very measured in his language re: FIP
It tells us about the things that the pitcher/hitter have control over. Its frequently used as an ERA predictor but Tango seems to speak against that. Its a talent evaluator. Because it strips out the defensive component, it gives an idea if a pitcher is better or worse than his defensive-infused ERA.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I've watched almost everyone of Garza's starts this year.
He’s definitely not get hammered; guys are just getting luck — lucky that they’re playing against the Cubs defense. In truth, though, the Cubs have an average-ish defense and Garza’s BABIP will come down. He’s look really sharp so far.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
You can't look at FIP or any one component of it as the end all be all
But its an extremely important stat in determining a pitcher’s ability.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Don't think that is in the mission statement.
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
So clearly we're doomed without all those guys
Maybe its Tampa Bay that made them good and they are nothing without the Rays.
Maybe some sorta of magical-jew spell placed by Sternberg and Friedman and Silverman and all those other Torah readers
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
Maybe it's the "Extra 2%"
(This message is not sponsored by Jonah Keri or any of his affiliates or cronies.)
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
Don't they have a name for this?
Maybe some sorta of magical-jew spell placed by Sternberg and Friedman and Silverman and all those other Torah readers
love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT
Aside from the pure sarcasm
I believe that its the combination of players that make the team and the individual player. Without that combination, players like Garza don’t have appealing stats or results (see Starlin Castro and his amazing defense)
"Doesn't Manny Ramirez look like the monster from Predator??" - Will Farrell as Harry Carey
by Gone Phishing on Apr 28, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
My bad for the confusion up there.
I am not saying FIP is broken, I am just questioning if there are some cases where the stat is flawed.
I wanted to look at the formula for FIP again.
It is 13HR+3BB-2K all over IP. Now the first thing I notice is that Garza has a HR/FB of 0%. So right now, his FIP is lucky unless he sustains this in WRIGLEY FIELD. Next, since FIP assumes all balls put in play (so not homers) are equal, Garza large line drive rate and ground ball rate (which both go for more hits than flyballs) should also lead to a luckier FIP.
I understand things will even out and that Garza is a good pitcher. However, I am just pointing out that FIP isn’t really all too reliable so early into the year.
For example, using FIP this early on the year for Shields is flawed.
He is getting very weak contact. Whether or not he can sustain that is the question.
My basic point is that ALL statistics should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt so early.
To say Matt Garza has done great by looking at FIP after several starts seems wrong.
You're missing the point. No one's saying Garza is going to sustain a 1.92 FIP or whatever.
There’s nothing wrong with what Woodrum has said. Garza has pitched extremely well and FIP reflects that. You can’t say “he’s lucky, he hasn’t given up a home run yet.” Yes, he will give up home runs eventually, but FIP isn’t about predicting future performance.
@ptSuttery
"Garza has pitched extremely well"
This is what I am disagreeing with. Garza, due to small sample size, has been able to attack the areas where his FIP will stay low. Get Ks, don’t give up homers, and have a high LD%.
41 strikeouts, 4th best in MLB.
9 walks, that’s 1 more than David Price.
36 hits given up, that’s 4 more than Roy Halladay and 1 less than Felix Hernandez.
He’s given up 0 home runs.
He’s given up 14 earned runs, one less than Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Clayton Kershaw.
He’s playing in front of the 3rd worst defense in baseball.
By every definition, he has pitched extremely well.
@ptSuttery
Since when have I used wins.
If you think I am some old-timer who doesn’t appreciate sabermetrics, you are wrong.
I think you're someone who is too quick to jump into bed with subjective measures like LD% and ER.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, he probably doesn't know know about the issues with batted ball data.
It’s definitely not a hard and fast science…especially LD rate. The article you listed above is really good.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably.
It’s still funny to those of us familiar with the debates to see someone slam FIP for sample size but embrace LD%.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
And how many innings has he pitched?
All the pitchers you named have pitched at least 5+ while some have gone more than ten innings.
The strikeouts are very impressive though.
Getting strikeouts and avoiding walks and home runs is somehow a bad thing?
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, apparently he doesn't realize what xFIP is.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I very much do know what it does.
His HR/FB% will probably be higher than 10% though, because he is in Wrigley Field.
Cubs rotation the last three years? 9.5 percent.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2008
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm...
I guess I am wrong then. Still, isn’t xFIP better for small sample sizes, since it deals with the homers?
xFIP adjusts for homer rate but nothing else.
If you’re going to use one after 50 IP, sure, I’d use xFIP, but nothing is going to give you definitive answers.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah.
You still have the batted ball issue, but I never realized it was so subjective.
Is it possible that while he is striking out lots of batters, he is still giving up hard contact?
Possible, certainly...I'd say it's unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
I’d trust more to eyes on something like that, though.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
My best guess is that he's pounding the zone. If he can get ahead with fastballs then he can finish with sliders out of the zone, but as he trying to get ahead batters are taking advantage of the fastballs in the zone
It’s just a theory, I certainly haven’t done the work, but that would be my hypothesis
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
He is getting ahead more often than before.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Which would play into what I'm saying
It would be interesting to see pitch usage by count compared to previous years and something simple like location (in or out of zone would suffice) by count compared to previous years.
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Dear god, the guy has struck out 12 batter per nine, posted a 4.14 ERA, and you don't think he's pitched well?
So he has three losses. Big whoop.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, that's my favorite part: his ERA isn't even that bad.
In his last start, he struck out 8 or 9, walked 1, gave up 1 earned run… but the Cubs defense managed to screwed him for four more runs.
@ptSuttery
Unless you're a firm believer in wins, there is no way to argue that Matt Garza isn't pitching at his absolute threshold.
And if you believe wins are important, well…
@ptSuttery
I really don't get it.
Even if you think FIP is lying, then take the average. So he’s got a 2 FIP and a 4 ERA. Okay, he’s pitched at about a 3 RA level. If you think that’s bad, then you’re just lying.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course, if you think four starts of ERA is meaningful but four starts of FIP is not ...
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Erm, yeah.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I always like the implication that a guy is just good at FIP but not pitching.
Like striking out that many hitters can be done by anyone.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 28, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I never ever said it was bad.
My whole arguement is based on the FIP is not good for small sample sizes. I don’t know how much better other statistics are, but it doesn’t take much to see the flaws that SSS of FIP have.
No measure is good when it's still in non-significant samples
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not arguing that he has not pitched well.
I am arguing that he has not pitched extremely well and that using FIP at this stage isn’t right.
Okay, that's a more nuanced argument than what you were sounding like above.
You can certainly make the argument that you shouldn’t merely trust his FIP and that he’s not going to keep performing like a 1.50 FIP pitcher going forward. But I’m still fine calling a pitcher that’s stuck out 12 per nine, walked 2.5 per nine, and allowed no homeruns as pitching extremely well. Sure, he’s not going to keep producing at that level, but so far he’s been dominant.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
I guess the difference is that I am arguing that it is luck while you say it is good performance.
Fair. There's certainly some luck in there, I'm sure.
I just think his .400 BABIP outweighs his 0% HR/FB rate. One of those things doesn’t fit in with the rest of his pitching performance.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair.
Do you know where I can find Cub’s pitcher’s BABIP from last year? I’d be curious to see what the number is.
Although LD% is flawed and I have not watched Garza all too much, I do believe he is giving up hard contact, leading to an inflated BABIP (although it still probably won’t stay that high).
Fangraphs --> Teams --> and from there you should be able to figure it out.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 28, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
.298
This and the average to low FB/HR% is surprising to me. I always thought Wrigley was a launching pad and that the Cubs had an awful defense.
It is a launching pad, particularly for left handed batters
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Use the stat for what it is intended, if you jam a round peg in a square hole and say see it doesn't fit you shouldn't be all that surprised
@SandyKazmir Die or Ride, You Decide
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 28, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Balfour is not doing terribly
10.0 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, .321 BABIP, 88.2 % LOB, 2.70 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.74 xFIP
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