Can We Just Have Russell Branyan Already?
by jcmitchell on May 13, 2011 8:04 AM EDT
in Tampa Bay Rays News
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PrintThose that frequent the site or follow me on Twitter probably know by now that I have personally given up on Dan Johnson and do not think Casey Kotchman will continue his hot hitting; nor does anyone in their right mind. It has been well established that there is no immediate solution with long term ability within our organization for first base either.
Russ Canzler might be the closest thing we have. He has put up decent on-base numbers in his first shot at Triple-A but the power is lacking a bit with only 2 homeruns in 105 at-bats. He is 25-years-old but has a .390 OBP this season after hitting .287/.372/.566 as a 24 year old Double-A repeater last season. He does show good patience with an 11.5% walk rate over his last 798 plate appearances spanning back to 2009. I had the chance to see him in Spring Training and he has an overly lofty swing that seems to produce a lot of high fly balls. The power wasn't special and he may need the help of a hitter's park for his power to work out. He may be a decent option for a little while but he is not the long term answer and is completely unproven at the highest level.
The Rays need to make a trade and there are a lot of options out there. The Rays have the necessary means to acquire almost any first baseman but will likely not jeopardize their future to try and land a Billy Butler when guys like Kila Ka'aihue and my personal favorite, Russell Branyan, can possibly be had for cheap. If I were given the choice, though, it's easy: Russell Branyan. Kila is a nice thought for next year but since we are already in 1st place and on a roll I would rather have a guy with a proven track record.
Branyan's career track record includes the 14th highest AB/HR ratio in the history of the game and an 11.8% walk rate. Yes, I know, he does have a career 38.2% strikeout rate but since he was called up by the Brewers in 2008 he's had close to a full-time job and has hit .244/.337/.509 in 1143 PAs and has been worth 6.3 fWAR. Oh, his glove is legit too. He has +5.5 UZR in 1564.2 innings at first base since 2008.
The Arizona Diamondbacks seem set to let Branyan rot on the bench for the majority of the games. They currently have a logjam at first base with Branyan, Juan Miranda, and Xavier Nady. Also, they have Brandon Allen (another guy the Rays would not mind having) and the hot hitting Paul Goldschmidt not too far from joining the Big League club. If ever there was a team with first base options to spare it is the Diamondbacks.
Branyan, before his start on Thursday, went 9 straight games without getting a start even though he is the best first base option on the big league club at the moment. Arizona really has little-to-no chance at making the playoffs and holding on to three first basemen, especially one that is 35 and goes 9 games in a row without a start; it is a little ridiculous. Then one has to consider Brandon Allen is hitting .295/.386/.475 in Triple-A at the ripe young age of 25.
The Diamondbacks have no need for Branyan. They won't play him and have a myriad of other options to replace him. The Rays and D-Backs can each trade from a position of strength. Tampa Bay can dip into it's pool of pitchers (perhaps Kyle Lobstein?) while Arizona gets something in return for their impressive first base depth.
Now, can we please just have Russell Branyan already?
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I ask this simple question
Would any manager in their right mind bring in Russell Branyan and replace Casy Kotchman at this time?
It’s a very simple yes or no answer—please answer that way
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Answer:
Because the general manager had acquired Casey Kotchman.
Too easy.
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions
russell branyan doesn't replace casey kotchman
he replaces Dan Johnson. Kotchman as long as he stays hot will keep most of the PT. But Branyan becomes the insurance policy when/if Kotchman finally comes back down to earth. I understand that Johnson’s career stats say he’s always wretched in April, so give him the rest of this month to show something…anything. If he doesn’t, let him go and acquire Branyan.
by raysfaninminnesota on May 13, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
A righthanded platoon partner should be the replacement for Dan J
by Ben Tumbling on May 13, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Ideally, yes
If you can get one that’s as good as Branyan. Right handed for the sake of right handed isn’t worth it. I’d rather have another lefty if it means he’s better. But, if we can get someone like Chris Davis and give him a shot (sooner rather than later) we can try him out and see what he does. This way you always got time for a deadline deal for someone like Branyan, etc
by raysfaninminnesota on May 13, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Casy Kotchman
As for his batting you did not mention that he had an eye problem and he see’s a lot better now. He also had a year when he hit .297. You also forgot to say he is the best fielding 1B in baseball. MY ANSWER – NO-NO-NO WAY
It’s a very simple no no no answer
So you're saying you think he will hit close to .300 from now until the end of the season?
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The eye pus explains 2010
But what about 2008 and 2009? And for a little perspective, the year in which he hit .296 (2007) was also the year in which Carlos Pena hit .282 with 46 homers and 121 runs batted in, while Zobrist struggled to hit .150.
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Eye problem is only a story because of his batting average
It is the only thing that has changed
Process is still very much the same, short-term results are different.
He’s a perfect 15 for 15 on line drives this season, and 12 of them have been singles. Compare that to Zobrist who is 16 for 17 in line drives and has 8 extra base hits in those 16 hits or Joyce who is “just” 20 for 28 in line drives (yea, 8 liners hit right to guys0 but has 9 extra base hits out of those 20 hits.
Line drives are fueling everything he is doing thus far as he is hitting just .263 on groundballs and .133 on flyballs. Once the line drive rate decline (and it will) and some of them start finding gloves, what we’re left with might not be pretty.
ZiPS has hit going .274/.342/.413 the rest of the way; that .755 OPS would be below AL average for first baseman putting him ahead of what Barton, Lee, Kaaihue, Morneau, and Moreland/Davis have done thus far.
Simply put, it can only go downhill from here no matter how you want to paint the picture and the organization absolutely must plan for the near and long-term future. I’d prefer a RH 1B solution (Chris Davis) to use in a platoon situation because this 2 lefty stuff is driving me crazy.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
in 75 plate appearances, they don't, and you know this.
For the record, “much improved” — he struck out less in 07, the same in 06, and 1% more in 2009.
I guess we can say Maicer Izturis will sustain his 33% LD rate or Matt Joyce will keep his 31% up as well. Hell, Dexter Fowler has a 30% LD rate — maybe all of them had pus squeezed out of their eyes as well.
48 players with at least 502 plate appearances last season had LD rates of 20% or higher last season — I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Kotchman will not be in that group in 2011.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
So you are willing to strike 2010 from the record?
B/c that makes his career #’s far more palatable
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Why take 2010 out?
If his eyes were that bad, why did he wait to get them taken care of until after the season? Some team player to play through the year wearing the equivalent of beer goggles at the plate.
2007-2009: .279/.341/.421 in 1512 plate appearances so a .762 OPS which is again below league average offensive production.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Guy got gradually worse each season since 2007, vision is something that slowly gets worse and often goes unnoticed
A correction on the other hand has an immediate impact.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
He's not a doctor, but he plays one on DRB
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
But acceptable
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Bartlett kept up his 26% LD rate all year in 2009, no?
Some times people see the ball really well for a period of time, even up to a season. wOBA of .391, of course there is nowhere to go but down, but maybe its time to raise expectations from where they first started. K rate and walk rate also are indicative of seeing the ball better particularly when juxtaposed with 2010.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
and even he hit .757 on LD's in 09
115 PA, 87 hits, 23 XBH.
Kotchman is 13% of the way there so far, and has 3 XBH and is batting 1.000 on LD and Bartlett’s was more impressive because he was playing everyday. Kotchman hit LHP well in 07 and 08 but has since done nothing against them hitting .218/.277/.261 over his last 260 PAs with 7 extra base hits.
As he is performing now, he’s an asset to the club, but in an every day role, he becomes exposed much like Fuld has done over the past few weeks.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Also average 1B OPS in the AL is .802
.050 below lg avg with perhaps the best defense at the position would be acceptable.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Maybe I can get the goo in my eyes cleaned out
and then I can see more clearly why the hell so many people have such a huge boner for Kotchman.
@staplemaniac
gee i don't know, maybe they like guys who hit for high BA, OBP and play above average defense?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
If they think that it's sustainable
then they are nuts.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
everyone know it's not
as i said in my podcast, a return to his ’08 LAA and ’09 ATL is not awful and better than anything else out there
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
That's fine and reasonable
I’m tired of people riding his jock thinking he’s the answer at first. It’s not you, but not everyone knows that he won’t hit over .300. A lot of people legitimately think we can just stop worrying about 1B now.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we accepted before the season that it was huge question mark.
Every team has a few.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I think the reason we keep coming back to the 1B issue
is that it is so unsettled. This is the only position where there isn’t anyone in the minors to look at and go “oh, there’s our 1B of the future.” I have been impressed with Kotchman’s approach at the plate, but I don’t think the batted balls are going to continue to drop, and how long will Kotchman have to be in a SamFuldSlump™ before people start wondering if his production going forward is acceptable at a position traditionally used to stash really good hitters?
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
If there wasn't a daily post bashing a guy for unsustainable results when his wOBA is .391
then there wouldn’t be this dialogue. There are plenty of unsustainable results right now on this club, but we only talk about one guy.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Eh, since the beginning of May, we've had two posts that dealt heavily with Kotchman.
This one here and Brad’s from yesterday. We can’t really control what everyone ends up talking about.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats fair
The same discourse occurs everyday
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
This isn't dealing heavily with Kotch but with the fact that Branyan can be had and for cheap. Kotch was mentioned one time.
Never made this a hate post on Kotchman, the commenters did.
Mm, true.
Sometimes it’s crazy what sort of threads Kotchman can derail.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Would you not agree his floor is a risk?
Our message has been that there is no long-term solution at first base anywhere in this organization and despite his nice start, there is enough reason to believe that Kotchman is not the solution either. Plan ahead, or plan to fail. That’s all we are asking for.
Even as Joyce comes down or Zobrist comes down, their floor is a lot of a softer land because they still retain skills whether Zobrist with his speed or Joyce with his power. Kotchman, on the other hand, has neither so when/if (giving him the benefit of the doubt) regresses, we’re left with a nice glove at a position that demands run production.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree there is risk
But we still have Dan Johnson. If a good deal comes along, I’m fine with a youngster. I don’t think they value the position like other teams do. They will never succeed if they go with the grain. They may always turn tot he scrap heap for a 1B.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
The fact that nearly every day there is some kind
of hate post on Kotchman, must make us look silly in the eyes of fellow SBN readers
What other team site would be hating on a guy doing so well?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
This post isn't hating on Kotchman
Just no one thinks he’s going to continue doing this. And Branyan provides power.
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I advocated getting Branyan long ago to which your guru SK shut me down
If you can get him cheaply (don’t know the date a SA can be dealt) and use him as a back up to Kotch—great
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
ITS NOT HATE
It is realism – get that through your ear hairs into your skull.
Kotchman is a dot.com stock in the late 90’s — if the club rests on its laurels with him, it’s going to pop.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Instead of these daily replace Kotch threads, we should focus
on a catcher
We have one who can’t catch and another who can’t hit—but let’s dump our best hitter instead
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Our best hitters are Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
.
Joyce .429
Longo .428
Zobrist .414
Kotch .391
ISO
Joyce .211
Longo .297
Zobrist .292
Kotch .093
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
those are what you choose as "best hitter" metrics, and we ALL have to say yessir?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I agree with regards to ISO being used
OPS would be better. WOBA obv better than that.
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Larger sample sizes are better
Joyce isn’t a true-talent level .429 wOBA hitter either.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, OPS is better than ISO....iso just measures one aspect of a player's package.
But it’s definitely not better than wOBA, which is the first stat Jason listed.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes. I was just saying I didn't like OPS
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
And I was saying its better than ISO
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
They look at different things so you're comparing apples to oranges
I detest OPS because there’s so much noise in there. How can you tell the difference between a .350/.400 batter and a .300/.450 batter? One brings much more value than the other.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
But if you’re forced to pick ISO or OPS as the best way to evaluate a hitter, I’m picking OPS.
Im picking WOBA over either
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Why would you possibly be forced to pick? It's a dumb argument. If I want a glimpse into the power of a batter I would use Iso or wOBAcon if I want to know overall ability I will look at wOBA and if I want to know OBP or SLG I will look at them
separately. OPS is an awful stat filled with noise that became mainstream due to ease of use. It lies to your face when you read it’s results due to the noise inherent in the numbers. It would be like adding up Runs and RBI and saying well that guy has a higher number than that guy so he must be better. You may be right a lot of the time, but it’s for reasons other than the truth.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Completely agree
I loathe OPS. It makes my head hurt when I hear it brought up so often in the mainstream.
Read the context in which the comment was made
i.e. "those are what you choose as “best hitter” metrics, and we ALL have to say yessir?"
I was halfway defending Colette before you guys decided to nerd out on me…sheesh.
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
listing OPS & wOBA would be a bit redundant, no?
I listed ISO to show the type of hitter we’re talking about. The four most productive hitters, to date, in the lineup. 3 are doing it with power, one is doing it the other way. Single hitters are not run producers.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats asinine
Expecting every player to fit some sort of mold for how you like your runs knocked in…thats no different than complaining about guys ‘clogging up the bases’.
Now, whether Kotchman can be a run producer doing what he’s done so far, and whether thats sustainable….completely different story.
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
GSG only an idiot can knocj the year Casey is having
why they continue to is really dumb
as for sustain—will Zo sustain or drop back to last season? who knows? but nobody’s replacing him
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Because Zo has done it before.
Kotchman has never done this
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I'm between you guys on this
On one hand, it seems like this site is always clamoring to replace the guy. On the other hand, everyone seems to think there is a wealth of freely available talent (which would also provide a significatn upgrade) with which to do so.
I’m only on board with the first statement if the second is true. I don’t believe the second to be true.
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
You're supposed to counter it with your own fact-based analysis
You know, “the home of progressive-based statistical analysis”
If I’m using wOBA, which is widely regarded as a superior stat to OBP, you falling back on that stat is another example of you moving your goalposts to make a point.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
You know we don't pay attention to BA
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not. Kotch has been doing well
But he’s not our best hitter
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
This is silly. Kotch isn't anywhere near our best hitter. You know better.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
This is far from a hate piece on Kotchman.
I love what Kotch has brought to the team so far but it is unsustainable. DanJo is not the answer either. Branyan has a proven track record and should come cheap with ARI’s depth and passion for benching Branyan. I want both Kotch and Branyan to be with the Rays. Idealy a RH bat would be great but when we could get Branyan for potentially a C level prospect then you pull the trigger.
I really don't think Branyan will stay healthy and he's at the age where bat speed becomes a real concern
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Not yet
Down the road perhaps. I’m not writing off either of the existing guys
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
While I'm not hugely on the Casey Kotchman bandwagon
I would rather stick with him than go with Russell Branyan and have said that from day 1. Now you want to talk trying to see what the Dodgers want for James Loney, than we have a different story.
UGH.
Not a fan of Loney, but that’s also possibly because I had him on one fantasy roster and he’s sucked this year so far.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Loney would be shuffling chairs on the deck of the Titanic
Power, power, and power is what is needed from 1B, unless you are Mark Grace or Sean Casey in his prime.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions
is this some sort of SF1 3 run HR joke
just because all we have had lately is a power 1st 1B doesn’t mean that is the end all be all. If that is what you want we might as well just wait for the O’s to give up on the year and try to get Mark Reynolds to play 1B.
Loney plays in Dodger stadiuim
You’re not going to convince me his power is equivalent to Kotch
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions
38 of his 56 career HR have come on the road
so yea I’m guessing the park has a little to do with it.
Trop isn't that much different than Dodger Stadium on park factors
I want a guy that is a threat to knock one off or over the wall in every at bat
2010 HR park factors
Dodger Stadium 14th 1.016
Trop 17th 0.936
2009 HR park factors:
Dodger Stadium 25th .0876
Trop 22nd 0.939
2008 HR park factors:
Dodger Stadium: .0857
Trop: .0850
again, non-factor
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe Bonds is still on the market
or heck I wonder what Mo Vaughn is doing these days, Jose Canseco
by saying the Trop is a hard place to hit Homeruns
wouldn’t make more sense to get a guy who is going to hit more doubles and get on base more. You have to be a bit more lucky to drive in 100 runs on sacrifice flies.
Chris Davis would have no problem hitting HRs here
Neither would Russell Branyan.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't agree with this
You can’t be an awful hitter like at SS, but there’s not a set prototype you need. wOBA weights everything by its value.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
True, but like Jason said above, the lack of power is not great from 1B.
His skillset is essentially the exact same as Kotchman, but he’s not as good at defense.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions
but if you get 22 HR from CF and 13 HR from 1B.
You are still getting 35 HR from those 2 positions. I don’t have the stats on me but I’m guessing that is pretty average, throw in the 25-30 we might get from 2B with Zobrist I’m not seeing why it is a necessity to have our 1B hit 30 HR
That's a lot of HRs to expect from Upton/Jennings.
And a lot more than Kotchman or Loney is projected to get too.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Loney in his 4 full seasons has 15/13/13/10 HR's in the NLW
I don’t think it is unrealistic to think he could hit 13 in a full season in the ALE..
You're right
Managers like Andrew Friedman don’t operate like this
by GomesSweetGomes on May 13, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Previous fantasy performance is indicative of future real life results.
As you can always expect come from behind victory is when you least expect it.
Clint Robinson has drawn my eye of late
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
He's an odd cat
It’s a deep org, but both BP and BA have Robinson in their mid-20’s
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
How, exactly, do prospect rankings apply to a 26 year old Designated Hitter in the deepest farm in years?
NW Arky is a bit of a favorable hitter environment, but Omaha actually is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the PCL and he’s destroying it this year.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
DH types really get discounted, even with AL teams
since people don’t know where they’ll play. Robinson could throw on a glove like any one else though
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
If the bat plays then I'm fine throwing him out there at DH or 1B
We need one more big bat and I don’t think the cost is as high on this guy with all of their other options. They may even be looking for a ML reliever if they’re serious about making a run this year. They may even do it for a good rug for Sean O’Sullivan. I saw him take his hat off last night and he has to have one of the most gruesome face/head combos in the history of the league.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
As for those scoffing at Kotch's eye surgery
didn’t Price have something done in that area prior to last season?
what was his record last year v ’09?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
You can also point to 09 being his rookie season
So him improving as a second year player is expected
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Sophmore jinx?
it is so obvious everything you write will never open the window even slightly that Kotch may be an improving player this season
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
stats say he should come back to earth
but we can hope that it doesn’t happen until next year. Career years are aberrations. Maybe we are at the right place and right time with Kotchman’s.
by raysfaninminnesota on May 13, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Because he isn't
Good for him that he got off to this start but the liners will stop dropping and the ground balls will quit sneaking through. His plate discipline is already starting to look worse as his success has bred over-confidence and he has to lead the league in thrown equipment. Sorry I prefer character guys that don’t throw a tantrum every time they make an out
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Kevin Youkilis would like to have a word with you...
by raysfaninminnesota on May 13, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
My bad I forgot that that thing is the worst sport known to man
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
his LD BABIP is actually down from his career i believe
698 BABIP on LD and the nice thing is his LD are at nearly 24%
also his FB BABIP is a career low 071, so it isn’t all luck
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
His BALD is still at 1.000 according to Baseball-reference
Nobody does that it should be 30% lower
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Kotch is a career .706/.702/.910 hitter on LD in 346 PA
hit .765 off them in 07 68 PAs
.737 off them in 08 76 PAs
.738 off them in 09 65 PAs
.527 with the eye issue last season 59 PAs
So, he could be due for a 25% regression from his current performance. He’s at 15/15 now which would mean 40 for his next 60 (.667) to get to where he was in 07-09.
The lowest BA on LDs on this team last season for players with at least 50 plate appearances was Carlos Pena at .655. Even Reid Brignac hit .717 off them last season.
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Yea, I noticed the equipment abuse too.
Good thing Manny’s not here anymore.
by Ben Tumbling on May 13, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
When's the discussion regarding our shortstop problem?
Brignac isn’t necessarily going to regress into anything if his swing and approach are messed up.
well said--that and catchewr is what these guys SHOULD be writing about
not waiting on a first baseman whose doing terrific to not sustain
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
...
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/5/4/2152555/reid-brignac-whats-up-with-that
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
And yeah, we've written about catcher defense a couple times now, I believe.
It’s just for some reason, the community is really hung up on Kotchman. It’s like this mental block we can’t get past.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure that everyone is on the same page. SF1 is the guy that brings him up everyday. Sorry we don't slob the knob of a guy that's enjoying a good run
I didn’t for Fuld and I won’t for Kotchman or even Briggy once he gets warm. I will, however, enjoy what Joyce, Zobrist, and Longo have done as they’re playing above their heads but not by as much as Fuld or Kotchman.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Catcher is a legitimate concern, Jaso's defense specifically
we don’t need a massive bat behind the dish, but as a club that wins based mostly on pitching and defense I think Lobaton may be better suited for the team than Jaso.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, Friedman is slow to give up on assets
Especially ones who had awesome offensive seasons at a premium defensive position (and with Jaso I use the word ‘defensive’ lightly). We can have Shoppach play a bit more against righties as the primary platoon mate and see if Jaso’s O comes around. I say give him until mid-June to see if the bat starts to make up for the poor defense.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Tough to write about catching when there's nothing to replace it
Chirinos has not looked good at Durham
Lobaton is not the answer
Trade market for catching is so bad the Red Sox are talking about throwing money at Bengie Molina. I’d love to address the catching situation, but there’s nothing to do about it right now
Same at SS – Brignac is struggling but Sean Rodriguez is not the answer there as he’s a downgrade defensively and there is also nothing in the farm system ready to help in that area. We knew coming into the season that the club was thin on high-level hitting prospects that could help which is why the Garza trade was a must-do, but there are still glaring holes on the depth charts and those are going to be there for teams that ball on a budget. Hell, even teams that don’t ball on a budget are there. Look at the Yankees boxscore last night — Nova, some Cuban defect, Buddy Carlisle?? Yikes
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Only if we were planning to lock him up for 4 more years and I don't see that happening
It’s silly to trade away real talent for a rental unless they want virtually nothing beyond us paying Jose’s salary
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on May 13, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
There has to be a great defensive catcher that can't hit a lick available
Shoppach can’t hit a lick. Might as well get great D out of that position
I'm an F18, Bro
Jose Molina
and Toronto isn’t giving him up
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
We have one on our 40 man with a wOBA around .400 in AA
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Brignac is a stop-gap for this year and next
He’s not the answer long-term, but one of HJL or Beckham will take over for him in 2013. If there are two positions I think a team can live with poor offense from it’s SS and C.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice to see Beckham rebounding
as one of the youngest in AA, to boot. I hope he keeps it up.
by raysfaninminnesota on May 13, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven't heard really anything negative about his glove too
hopefully he can stick at SS, having 2 good potential MLB caliber SS in the system would be very nice.
When I saw him in Spring Training
his glove was well below average. He was booting balls in practice and he had zero awareness during the game. He allowed a runner from 3rd base to score on a groundball to him becasue he never looked him back to the base. The runner looked stunned. He also rarely gets in front of theball and opts to back hand instead. His arm is legit, though.
A stopgap still needs to be productive though
We need a Scutaro/Counsell type backup plan
by Ben Tumbling on May 13, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
His BABIP will improve and he'll start hitting somewhere around .240.
I can live with that if you’re an above-average defensive SS
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess that's what I'm skeptical about
He is messed up — regression might now apply to him.
by Ben Tumbling on May 13, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
His BABIP is .239 and his batted ball data is fairly in line with his career norms
he’ll start hitting .240 or so with more XBH sooner rather than later, I believe.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Reid just needs to get his confidence up and I think a couple weeks in Durham could help with that
Also I would like to see Elliot Johnson get a shot to play almost every day. I think he is better than most think.
and by career AAA dude you mean like Zobrist
or most MIF that don’t get full playing time until they are older.
I'd take Kotchman as an everyday 1B before Johnson playing more than 1x a week
His bat is such a negative
by Jason Collette on May 13, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
How come it was awesome when Fuld overachieved
but when Kotchman does it everyone who likes him is an idiot?
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
BECAUSE FULD KNOWS HOW TO DRIVE A SPREADSHEET
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Because Kotch has established his suckiness the past several years
Sam has that new toy syndrome going for him a little bit.
by Ben Tumbling on May 13, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
$400,000,00000,00000000000 in the CHC outfield
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
JHC, that is the best comment about this whole shebang i've heard--exactly
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Why not be happy that someone is producing right now, unlike our other lefty 1B?
I don’t care if he won’t sustain it. He’s helping the team right NOW. Just like Fuld did in April. That’s not a bad thing. I don’t need to stomp up and down and say he won’t keep going like this. In a division race where every win matters, I’ll just be happy that someone else is stepping up and let Friedman continue to work his magic so we will have someone else step up in case Kotchman doesn’t.
by raysfaninminnesota on May 13, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
It was awesome, but we knew it wouldn't last
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
But why does Fuld get posts about being able to put his pants on two legs at a time
And Kotchman just gets “Nope, this going to last and you’re stupid for thinking it is”
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on May 13, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Why does Fuld get a cape giveaway at the Trop?
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not bashing the Fuld stuff
It’s cool to get excited about a guy performing way over his head and diving all over the place. I’m not saying we need to deify (tongue-in-cheekly) Kotchman, but still
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on May 13, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions
i'll tell you why Imperial, because from the day
he was signed the stat brigade wrote article after article on how bad he was, and they can’t or won’t be able to live with themselves if he winds up with a good season—too bad, cause it has to make them in a wierd way root against the Rays
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
It's because a lot of people are wanting Kotch as long term
While no one thinks Fuld is anything but a 4thOfer
www.DRaysBay.com
by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
[citation needed]
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on May 13, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
not even myself think we shouldn't try and upgrade there for '12
but if he has a 350wOBA and plays defense, i’ll live with him
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Well, me too
I just don’t think it’ll happen
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by Erik Hahmann on May 13, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
It started long before the long term talk
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I also think that part of it is the depth the organasiation has at OF
compared to a completely empty cubbard at first. We knew we wouldn’t have to rely on Fuld when he cooled off.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet, here we are
#callupguyer
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on May 13, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, is that why he came out in like the 5th?
I didn’t see why last night.
#callupJennings
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on May 13, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I think we will see those guys as the season goes on
Don’t you?
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
So who do we call up when we're getting crap production at first base?
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I can answer that question for you
LESLIE ANDERSON. THE TIME IS NOW.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Hurt shoulder diving for a liner
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on May 13, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Flashy outfield defense is flashier than flashy 1B defense.
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
4 hit better than cycles against the Red Sox
are flashier than 2 singles vs the Indians
I'm an F18, Bro
.360 BA is prettier than .252
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
NO WE'RE NOT WHY ARE YOU HATING ON KASEY COTCHMAN
JUST ENJOY THE RIDE AND STOP HATING RAYS PLAYER WHO ARE GUD JEEZ WHAT ARE YOU A TERRORIST?
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on May 13, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Great point.
I think it’s in response to public sentiment…more people clambering that Kotch is a long-term solution than for Fuld. The Fuld love was intense, but I think most people realized he was just on a crazy hot streak. I’m fine with the Rays playing the hot hand and seeing what they can get from Kotchman, but the main argument here has simply been a) he’s not as good as he’s playing right now, and b) he’s likely not going to be a long term solution for us. Maybe he does well enough to give us a passable performance this year, but that’s about the peak of what we’re talking about here.
At least, that’s all I’m trying to argue when this stuff comes up. I’m not exactly sure where everyone’s getting hung up, to be honest.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Because I think we all, on both sides of the debate, agree with those two points.
We’re riding a hot hand, and hey, maybe Kotch can produce at his projected .333 wOBA level for the rest of the season. If he does that he has great D, he would be a good value.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on May 13, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, Fuld was hitting doubles, stealing bases, and making amazing catches.
by ballsdeep187 on May 13, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Sam Fuld was the star of the team during that period
Right now we are playing so well Kotchman is being overshadowed by several other guys.
I think that is why Fuld was so celebrated.
I can’t explain why the Kotchman hate
I'm an F18, Bro
Fans are Fans
Right now, there should be minimal talk of replacing Kotchman at first base. He is doing an admirable job and performing better than expected. The fear of when it will end and how big of a drop off we can expect shouldn’t be gripping us daily.
The areas of need for the Rays are defined and redefined on a daily basis. A better offensive shortstop, more production out of left field, a better defensive catcher, and a more established back end bullpen guy are all more pressing needs to fill right now than the perceived collapse of our first baseman.
The better offensive shortstop may be in-house as Brignac finds his stroke. Sam Fuld may turn things around and start producing on a consistent basis and causing havoc on the basepaths, John Jaso may start blocking balls in the dirt, and JP Howell may return to form and push Joel Peralta down a notch to a role where he is best suited for.
Fans are a fickly bunch and when Casey Kotchman begins to go into a tailspin we will all be saying get player x or y, but hopefully if that time comes the available pool of players is much deeper than it is today. And the discussion will also revolve around can the Rays live with the diminished production at first base and aquire an alternate position to address one of the other needs that hasn’t garnered as much attention.
I would not mind the acquistion of Russell Branyan, not because it would replace Casey Kotchman but because it would make the Rays a better team overall providing protection in two areas DH/1b in the event of injury or poor performance. It would also make the Rays a deepere bench than they are today. All good positive things that have nothing to do with the pro/cons of Casey Kotchman. After all, as a fan of the Rays, isn’t it all about winning games and gettign back to the post season in October?
Well said, now get back to work
But Branyan has spent all that time on the DL with his back—oops
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
The Rays will not be replacing
The mighty Casey. Word on the street has the Rays erecting a statue of him in the rotunda (removable for relocation to new stadium).They will also be replacing Ted Williams museum with Kotch memorabelia. Inside info also states that Kotch had his head replaced with Ted’s frozen head. 400 bating avg record is now in jeopardy of going to Kotch to enhance his defensive all time history of the game records.
Well--If their not going to believe
anything I have to say. Why should I say anything believable.
P.S. It’s all good when your in 1st place. GO RAYS.
Give up the Branyan Talk ,Mitchell
Since Kotchman has gotten his vision fixed,he has been hitting like he was early in his career.As long as he continues to hit,with his terrific defense, we need to lock Kotchman up!! Branyan is a butcher at 1B!!
Again, this is not about replacing Kotchman
it’s more about replacing DanJo and if/when Kotch regresses to his norm then we have Branyan instead of DanJo to get more playing time. Oh, and over the past 1500 innings Branyan has a +5.5 UZR and Kotchman has a +3.9 over the same amount of innings. So, if Branyan is a butcher what does that make Kotch?
What does it make Kotchman defensively? Maybe his range isn’t like Keith Hernandez,but he only has the highest fielding % in baseball history.
by MarkFidrych on May 13, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
This is not me saying Kotch is bad but showing you with numbers that Branyan is not a butcher.
Branyan is actaully an above-average defensive 1B. A butcher he is not.
Casey's driving that train!
He hitting and fielding. He fixed his eyes. Don’t rock the boat.
Sure you can.
Can we just have Price and Longoria already?
Justin Upton through 28 games: .283/.367/.547, 1.5 WAR.
You mad, AZCentral?
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