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Rays Roundup: Draft Preparation Edition

We're already way behind on passing along draft information, so here's a rundown of all the great work that's come out over the last few weeks. Take the mock draft selections with a grain of salt; I pay attention once I hear the same name come up multiple times, but I normally use mock drafts as an excuse to read a bit more about potential prospects I hadn't heard about before. 

  • Baseball America has two mock drafts out at the moment, and The Process Report has covered both of them. In their first mock draft, Baseball America had the Rays selecting RHP Jose Fernandez, 1B C.J. Cron, and OF Brandon Nimmo. In their second mock, they again had the Rays choosing Jose Fernandez, but then switched it up to include 2B Kolten Wong and LHP Matt Purke.
  • John Sickels has been doing some mock drafts over at Minor League Ball, and he has the Rays taking RHP Robert Stephenson, 1B C.J. Cron, and SS Levi Michael in the first round.

    I have similar questions with this draft as I did when looking at the BA mock drafts: do the Rays really need to be taking another pitcher with their first pick of the draft? And also, do we need another shortstop in our minors? I guess it comes down to what you think their strategy is going to be. Do the Rays focus on filling organizational needs, or do they simply go with the best possibly player on the board? I'd like them to get the best player possible, but wouldn't mind if they focused on getting big bats moreso than other areas.
  • Rays Prospects has already posted a range of articles on prospects the Rays might consider. For the hitters, they profiled Kolten Wong, Andrew Susac, Brandon Nimmo, C.J. Cron, and Josh Bell; for the pitchers, they posted a large list of pitchers to keep an eye on as the draft gets closer.

    Also, BurGi wrote a great article that combined all the current mock drafts into one master list. This way, it gives you a good idea on where most analysts expect certain prospects to fall and which players might be available when the Rays are picking.
  • R.J. Anderson talks about LHP Matt Purke, discussing why the Rays can afford to take a bit of a risk this year. With all these picks, they can afford to make the occasional gamble on a riskier, high-upside pick.

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As we have seen pitching is paramount.

You cannot have too much, and as the Rays have shown teams overpay for it, E-Jax, Garza and Kazmir

Friedman as others do love MIF and C, and the last couple drafts and trades emphasize both

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on May 19, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I disagree somewhat

The game is shifting (or is already in) a more pitching-heavy era. Good hitters have more value now

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 19, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

This.

love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT

by SRQman on May 19, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you saw it the last two drafts

8/10 picks in top 10 rounds in 2009 were hitters, only pitchers were Devin Fuller in the 6th (juco guy already released) and Kevin James in the 9th (raw HS guy whose barely pitched)

8/12 in top 10 rounds in 2010 were hitters. Pitchers were Jake Thompson (2nd round), Austin Wood (4th round, didn’t sign), Ian Kendall (5th round), and Merrill Kelly (8th round)

So that’s one pitcher we’ve signed from the top four rounds, 10 picks total.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 19, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll give my notes on eahc sub-topic.

BA’s mock drafts: I like both of them. It isn’t an agenda or anything like Keith. They seem to make reasonable mock drafts.

I hate Sickel’s mock draft for the Rays. It makes zero sense.

Taking a pitcher with the first pick is fine. The Ray’s lack pitching in the low (key work low) minors right now, and they haven’t added an elite prep arm in a while. Taking a college SS with an average bat is a stupid move the Rays won’t do. Somone didn’t do their reseach…..

The rest is good stuff. The Ray’s will not be able to sign Purke though.

by mr. maniac on May 19, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions  

My thoughts on the draft:

They should go BPA. Sign them. Happy dance.

love it love it love it
i hate one person more than Pap smear—his name is bin laden
by sternfan1 on Aug 12, 2010 3:33 PM EDT

by SRQman on May 19, 2011 1:20 PM EDT reply actions  

I think that we should definately go pitcher heavy early

better value with hitters can be found lower in the draft but this years draft is very heavy on arms in the first few rounds. Also like said above you can never have enough pitching and like has been said in other topics the trop is an extreme pitchers park so I would rather spend the most money through the draft on guys who will be at their strongest at home.

by Dbullsfan on May 19, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

If everyone goes heavy pitching since it is the strength the Rays could have some chances at getting hitters at good value

instead of picking pitcher # 4 on their list they could get hitter #1

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 19, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

It all depends

Sometimes pitcher #7 is better than hitter #1. (Though obviously in this example you couldnt go wrong with either).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Major_League_Baseball_Draft

Sometimes there just aren’t hitters to be had. With the exception of Longoria and Stubbs, the only guys who fit the mold of what you’re suggesting, and have had MLB success, would be Boesch and Coghlan…unless I’m missing something.

by GomesSweetGomes on May 19, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Cron and Wong

but I would rather wait and hope they are there at 31 than reach for them at 24. I would rather go with an upside arm like Fernandez.

by Dbullsfan on May 19, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

"better value with hitters can be found lower in the draft"

What does that even mean?

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 19, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure if I worded it right

but I meant that I like my chances of a positional prospect being successful drafted later than I do pitchers. like I like the idea of a 1B in the 5th round instead of hoping to get a starting pitcher in the 5th round.

by Dbullsfan on May 19, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could very well be wrong, it definately wouldn't be the first time

but it seems like more rotation pitchers are selected early than positional players.

by Dbullsfan on May 19, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I’m betting there are a lot more SPs from the 5th round than 1Bs, even adjusting for there being 5 SPs vs. 1 1B per team. Very rarely you get lucky with a Brandon Belt. Most of the time you end up with a Mike Sheridan

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 19, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

for the Rays

Upton, Longoria, and Kotchman were selected in the first rd
Damon Supplemental, Shoppach and Brignac 2nd Rd.

Price, Niemann 1st Rd
Davis 3rd
Hellickson 4th
Shields 16th

by Dbullsfan on May 19, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some names I like:

I like all the guys mentioned in the BA and KLAW drafts. Levi Michael would slot in behind HJL as a toolsy SS years away. Having too many guys that can play up the middle is never an issue. Wong, Purke, etc. are all guys I’d be thrilled to have. I’m huge on Cron and have been for a while.

I feel like Sean Gilmartin is a guy that makes sense for us. He’ll be a relatively easy sign in the sandy round. LHP out of FSU with polish but also good body/stuff. Works hard off his change. Seems like he fits the profile.

If Josh Bell somehow falls I’d squeal. Susac is a guy that’s really interesting like Osich. Both PACNW with injury questions.

by rglass44 on May 19, 2011 3:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Henry Owens also. 6'7 LHPs don't grow on trees.

Honestly, there is so much in this draft to like I can’t even make a short list. Everything I read makes me more and more excited. Saw where Callis said as many as 20 guys from this draft will crack their top 100 list. We should nab at least one of those.

by rglass44 on May 19, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Saw a lot of Gilmartin at FSU

Never knew what his velocity was like (no gun in the park), but hitters were WAY out in front of his changeup, and his breaking pitch looked unhittable against lefties. At the time I remember the movement reminding me of JP Howell’s curve. I know all pro prospects are supposed to look impressive in college, but I’d be a pretty big fan of him with one of the picks.

by Whelk on May 19, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, and although nobody cares.

LHP Brian Busch is someone I would watch for in the late rounds. His stats are unimpressive, but he has CRAZY movement on his fastball. He lacks stamina, and throws from something like a 3/4 arm slot (or at least he did his freshman year when I saw him). Don’t know if he’s interested in leaving now as a junior, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a successful career out of someone’s bullpen.

And it looks to me like he was pretty hit unlucky last year.

by Whelk on May 19, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Levi Michael?!?!?!

Here is my “thing” against Levi…..

1. He may not stick at short, and if he does, he will most likely be below average. Yeah, we don’t need a college guy who looks like he won’t stick at SS.

2. His bat is solid, but not special. He controls the zone well, but projects to hit below .300 with little homer power. Big time fastballs are reportedly too much for him.

3. Hak Ju Lee and Tim Beckham are both ahead of him. Those two, who both will stick at SS, are ahead of Michael. Shift him to another posistion, and his bat’s “meh” shows.

by mr. maniac on May 19, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where are you seeing Michael won't stick?

Everything I’ve read is that he should, but there is a risk he won’t (the same is said of most guys).

You don’t consider organizational need when drafting. Next year will be his age 21 season. Perfect age to start in A+.

by rglass44 on May 19, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

ESPN, BA, others.

His body type is not good for a SS.

You do consider onganizational need when it is a college player whos bat won’t play too well anywhere else and when there are two good SS prospects ahead of him, one of them being a top 50 prospect. There are times to glance at what you have. You can always use a bat or an arm, but you don’t need Michael when you have Beckham and Lee.

by mr. maniac on May 19, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thought I saw Susac going way before we pick.

where are my gifs? is this a new thread? you guys are litl fucking sluts. uck you guys. i bet you guys tmpons in the womines bathromms and pay 75 cents for each ne. fuck you

by daveh33 on Sep 3, 2010 11:09 PM EDT reply actions

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on May 19, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would love for Josh Bell.

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 19, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Bell has the best prep bat.

by mr. maniac on May 19, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd like to see the Rays pull a Bucs and nab a falling Purke.

I doubt he lasts past Boston though. I’d like Nimmo, Cron, Wong, Purke or the Alonso kid. Three of those guys would be awesome.

by Dome Biscuit on May 19, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions  

If Purke doesn't show good velocity, he may not get drafted in the first round.

The Rays shouldn’t take him. If he plays int he Cape and DOESN"T regain velocity, then he is not close to worth whatever he wants. He is like a 5th+ round talent.

If he DOES regain velocity, he will take 6+ million. Can the Rays pay for that? Only they know, but I doubt it.

Just because you have a bunch of picks gives nor eason to “waste” them.

by mr. maniac on May 19, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yarp

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 19, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't see that happening

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 19, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

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