Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers

by Steve Slowinski on May 23, 2011 4:00 PM EDT

Monday, 7:05 PM: Jeremy Hellickson (3.81 FIP) vs. Phil Coke (3.56 FIP)
Tuesday, 7:05 PM: Wade Davis (4.83 FIP) vs. Justin Verlander (3.25 FIP)
Wednesday, 1:05 PM: Andy Sonnanstine (6.14 FIP) vs. Brad Penny (4.48 FIP)

The Rays have a lot of variables working against them for this series. They've just had to travel a long distance for the third time in a week (up to Toronto, down to Miami, up to Detroit), and now the back end of the rotation squares off against the Tigers and Justin Verlander.

The Tigers aren't a terribly impressive team: their offense has a .315 wOBA, which ranks them around the middle of the pack in the majors, and their pitchers have a collective 3.85 FIP (again, middle of the pack). They're currently a .500 team, led by a couple standout players like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, and the majority of their offensive is slumping. They only have four players that are hitting -- Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Alex Avila, and Jhonny Peralta -- while they have four players that have wOBAs below .300: Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Austin Jackson. It's a very top heavy lineup at the moment.

Keys to the Series:

Hit against Phil Coke and Brad Penny. I'm not expecting the Rays to hit Verlander well, considering how dominant he's been this season and over the past few years, so they'll need to put up good showings against Coke and Penny to have a good chance at winning the series. Neither Coke or Penny are all that intimidating, though, and Coke is likely pitching a little above his head at the moment.
Get to the bullpen. No matter how you look at it, the Tigers have had a pretty awful 'pen so far this year. Their 4.22 FIP ranks them sixth worst in the majors, and their 5.97 ERA is the worst in the majors by far. Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde are their two big names out in the bullpen, and Benoit hasn't pitched anything like what he did last year. He's only striking out 7 batters per nine and he's allowed a large number of hits, so his FIP has gotten worse (3.22) and his ERA has ballooned (7.47). I'm sure he'll improve going forward, as his FIP suggests he will, but I still can't help but laugh when I think of how much money Benoit is getting paid right now.

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Comments

Oh boy we go against Verlander!

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

His FIP was gotten worse.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

Whoops, thanks.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously. -- @steveslow

by Steve Slowinski on May 23, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Anyone have the lineup for tonight's game?

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

.

SPTimesRays Marc Topkin
#Rays lineup (if they play): Upton cf, Damon dh, Longoria 3b, Zobrist rf, S-Rod 2b, Lopez 1b, Shoppach c, Johnson ss, Fuld lf, Hellickson p

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

NM, got it myself.

1. B.J. Upton® CF
2. Johnny Damon (L) DH
3. Evan Longoria® 3B
4. Ben Zobrist (S) RF
5. Sean Rodriguez® 2B
6. Felipe Lopez (S) 1B
7. Kelly Shoppach® C
8. Elliot Johnson (S) SS
9. Sam Fuld (L) LF

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Fucking love it.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Felipe's defense at 1B could be an adventure.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't love that Maddon still thinks Joyce should be platooned

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Meh, it doesn't upset me too much if he just keeps on murdering RHP.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I just don't get how Sam Fuld is a better option

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

This

Joyce has by far the higher upside and is probably not much worse of a defender at this point. I would rather he have the chance to play every day than Fuld.

@staplemaniac

by staplemaniac on May 23, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know. Fuld is probably quite a bit better defensively.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Quite a bit? Really?

Joyce has looked excellent this season and I think probably has a better arm.

@staplemaniac

by staplemaniac on May 23, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Certainly the better arm.

Granted this is playing LF versus RF:

Sam Fuld
- 2.6 UZR
- 9 DRS
- 11.6 UZR/150

Matt Joyce
- -0.3 UZR
- 1 DRS
- -2.5 UZR/150

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Throughout their careers, both have a positive UZR.

Fuld has a higher UZR/150, but Joyce also has nearly twice as many innings logged.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

And (SSS alert!) Fuld is slightly less atrocious against lefties than Joyce.

Fuld: 74 ABs, 243/325/351
Joyce: 70 ABs, 157/268/257

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

nice - -

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Better defense.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Fuld and Damon over Joyce is disconcerting

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on May 23, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude deserves a day off

by benderbrodriguez on May 23, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Everytime we face a lefty?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on May 23, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope it gets rained out so we can have another double header!

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

So really, why aren't we putting Sonny out there against Verlander on short rest?

It’s not like we’re gonna win that game to begin with…. so why not just throw in the white flag and save Davis for a game he might be able to win.

It’s not like soft tossing sonny is gonna blow his shitty arm out with a single day less rest.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

You're basically Sun Tzu.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

thank god someone finally understands me

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

but, srsly, Sun Tzu thought if you were in a situation of matchups, you set your weakest group against their strongest and tried to win the other two.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I know this.

Always down with sending the weakest off to die to gain ground elsewhere.

Only thing is that you have to commit to using sonny. If he gives up 8 runs in the first you gotta see if he can make it 5 IP. No point killing the bullpen over a lost cause.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

(Especially when your offense can't score more than 3 runs consistently)

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Who knew wars were best-of-3?

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 23, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Listen, asshole.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

In his time you occasionally lost battles in war.

But thanks for playing.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm pulling for Sonny to come down with 'Flu-like symptoms,' leading to a recall of Cobb

Buy My Book That Has Nothing To Do With Baseball

by nomoredevil on May 23, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I can not believe they are still throwing Sonny out there

0-3 in his starts.

Awful

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

6.14 FIP

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

They are just giving away games

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

It's really awful.

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I was thinking to myself it could be a lot worse with a 6.14 FIP.

But it doesn’t matter since he lost all 3 games.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I would love to hear their reasoning on keeping him in the rotation

Because I can’t think of a good one.

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Cash. Rules. Everything. Around. Me.

C.R.E.A.M. get the money dolla dolla bills ya’ll

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I grew up on the crime side, the New York Times side

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on May 23, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

$$$$

The great motivator

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

How quickly we forget that he only gave up 3 in his last outing

Gotta hit, no matter who’s pitching (except Shields, he’ll drive in his own runs god damnit)

by pudieron89 on May 23, 2011 5:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He has not pitched well.

He has moments, but he’s walked too many guys and given up too many home runs.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

"He's had moments" is what I meant.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Too bad he's still a garbage pitcher.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Who cares you still gotta hit!

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

He'll give up 8 in an inning before too long.

Those warning track fly balls and line drives won’t be caught forever.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Comerica is a giagantic ball park, I don't mind so much having a bunch of flyballs there

@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT

by Sandy Kazmir on May 23, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, we'll see how you feel after batting practice (aka innings he pitches) on wednesday.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I just hope we get rained out so I can go play my game tonight and not miss anything

@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT

by Sandy Kazmir on May 23, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope we do too.

i want to play black ops.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm down for this. Won't happen sadly

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis sucks anyways?

by benderbrodriguez on May 23, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions

It's Cobb's night to pitch

Durham might have to go with a spot starter since the MLB team will need a guy if there’s a doubleheader

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on May 23, 2011 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

We have an off day so they won't need to spot start anyone

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

*off day Thursday

Travels at 140,000 mph. Produces 500 megajoules of energy. Originates from the heavens.

by Sveet on May 23, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually I love tonight's lineup, it gives me NO reason to switch from the TBL game.

by drungo on May 23, 2011 4:36 PM EDT reply actions

Go Icebucs!! Maddumb suxs!!!!1

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on May 23, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Puppa is the White Warren Sapp.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Puppa makes me think of Pippa

Pippa makes me…….

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on May 23, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

DAT ASS.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on May 23, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Anybody psyched that we're missing Scherzer on this trip?

We hit Penny pretty well and Verlander is what he is, but I’m glad we don’t have to face JV and Mad Max.

@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT

by Sandy Kazmir on May 23, 2011 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

My fantasy team is a little "sad"

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I liked you better when you were jolly.

@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT

by Sandy Kazmir on May 23, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

That went away when he lost weight.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

(SRQ please get fat again)

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm so happy we miss Scherzer!

If only we got to face Sonny instead of Verlander.

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

hate you

@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009. You got me.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT

by Sandy Kazmir on May 23, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

But you are like my favorite

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought I was your favorite?!?!??!?!?!?!?

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Favorite writer with an attitude = Sandy

You are favorite person I have met inside the stadium from DRB.

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

You're a cunt.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Can we ban this man for trying to ruin the SRQman brand?

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

No.

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Why are they going to let Sonnanstine pitch again?

by StylezMcKoolaid on May 23, 2011 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

Process. It's part of it.

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the process of being able to tell that he is not a starter is pretty much done

by StylezMcKoolaid on May 23, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know, StylezMcKoolaid. Why don't you got ask Maddon?

@dobbertweets

by blackraven on May 23, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean how much times does he have to get rocked before Maddon decides he is not a starter

by StylezMcKoolaid on May 23, 2011 5:25 PM EDT reply actions

His FIP is 6.14

He’ll regress and be fine.

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

"how much times"

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on May 23, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Let me be the first to predict tonight's line up has 2 RS written all over it

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on May 23, 2011 5:42 PM EDT reply actions

If we score two and the game is called after 7 innings.

You don’t get credit.

by Whelk on May 23, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

if we even have a game

by raysfaninminnesota on May 23, 2011 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

Good news fellas

Late last week it was posted here the last 40 PA of Case Kotchman, after two consecutive hitless games (dangerous). Well rest assured Rays fans, his last 42 PA read as follows

359/405/436

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on May 23, 2011 6:42 PM EDT reply actions

/hi-5

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on May 23, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

.

SPTimesRays Marc Topkin
#Tigers say first pitch will be at 7:30 for #Rays game

I'm not sure if you're serious...If you are, the reasons are simple:
1) Dutton’s xBABIP has to be input by hand, so it takes a long time to calculate.
2) I do this for free.

by BWoodrum

by SRQman on May 23, 2011 6:53 PM EDT reply actions