Montgomery Position Players Compared to League
Last week I took a look at the guys in Durham to see how their statistics stack up against the rest of the Eastern League. I lumped the batters and pitchers in to one post last time, and I don't think it did the guys justice because I didn't give enough love to some of the guys. This time, we'll take a different approach.
We'll start with the position players because I have a huge Beckham crush that I want to force down your throats. Once again will start with the raw stats. The below table shows the Triple Crown stats, slash-line components, wOBA, and a couple of other things. You should all be familiar with each of these numbers.
As you can see, the Biscuits offense has performed better than average so far on the year outpacing the league in OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA. The offense is largely paced by non-prospects with minor league fodder Daniel Mayora and Nevin Ashley near the top and fringe prospects Kyeong Kang and Steven Vogt really doing work. Looking at more than just the raw numbers gives us some good indicators on the other guys.
Below you'll see a table with K% and UIBB% (this time out of PAs because I couldn't reconcile why some cites use ABs) followed by Isolated Slugging (a measure of how much of your slugging is due to more than just singles). The final 5 statistics are measures for comparing each stat to the league average. For these 5 (that end with a "+"), 100 is equal to league average and anything greater is better by that percent.
I'll add some quick bullets for things that stand out to me:
-As I said I have a huge prospect crush on Beckham. I have since we drafted him 1:1 overall because of the reviews on his tools and work ethic (the Barry Larkin comps didn't hurt either). He struggled a bit his first two years, and his star seriously faded (dropping out of all top 100 lists prior to this year). If you looked closely at his numbers, though, he was a shortstop who was young for his league hitting about league average. Not what one would expect from a number 1 pick, but he was considered quite raw. Many thought he might repeat A+ due to his struggles, but the trade for Hak-Ju Le forced the Rays to promote him even if they hadn't planned to. Well, he hasn't been overmatched at all. Despite being one of the youngest players in the league he posted above-average lines in all 3 slash-categories. In every indicator above except Iso, he's been better than the league, and even his power output is showing improvement as he has as many homers this year in 66 games as he had the two previous full seasons (125 and 123 games respectively). As he grows in to his body and continues to refine his approach, his plus batspeed should turn even more of those doubles in to homers and singles in to doubles.
-Cole Figuero appears to have a phenomenal approach. The former shortstop now playing second base with a few other starts at 3B/SS has not hit for much power which isn't surprising given his past results. He has been great, though, at making contact and drawing walks. If he can add enough power to keep pitchers honest, then he could make quite the utility infielder. If not, he may still be a serviceable option in the Elliot Johnson mold.
-Matt Sweeney looks cooked. The youngest member of the Kazmir trade that once made Keith Law's top 100 prospects just can't seem to make contact. On top of that, his power is down. I've pretty much written him off at this point.
-Stephen Vogt and Kyeong Kang were mentioned above as fringe prospects. Both are really excelling at the plate so far on the year with seemingly different skillsets. Kang's more patient approach has netted him huge walk numbers to go with right around league average strike-out numbers, and Vogt's been a bit more aggressive with more contact ability. Vogt's really old for prospect status and he's limited to 1B/DH, so he needs to keep his power numbers excellent if he ever wants to see the bigs. Kang isn't quite as old, and he has a bit more defensive value as corner outfielder. Still though, he'll need his bat to continue to be great if he wants to keep the train rolling.
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I know age wasn't a carte blanche rejection for a blurb mention
Must be a 40 man spot
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
LOL
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 21, 2011 5:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Still has the roster spot; 1st season on 40 man
Having his best season at the plate.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Lucroy basically skipped AAA.
Just sayin…
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
Lee & Beckham
2B-Beckham
SS-Lee
Our 2013/2014 Keystone combo?
Either way:
Lee = Sploosh
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
The Rays desperately need a 3B after all
by benderbrodriguez on Jun 21, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
A move to 3B for Bex would kill his trade value and he'll probably never play that position for the Rays in the majors
A move to 2B is much more likely than a move to 3B then, assuming the Rays move him at all
by benderbrodriguez on Jun 21, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
How does a move to 3B differ from a move to 2B for his trade value?
He could sit in Durham until Longo’s last year here and then they’d both need to be rostered. Either way, neither is moving until absolutely necessary. My point was just that Bex doesn’t profile well at 2B. If he has the range for 2B then he’d be a fine SS. If he doesn’t have the range for SS then 3B/Rf is his next stop.
2Bs are considered to be a scarcer position than 3Bs by most because they're an "up the middle" position
So a 2B with the same offensive production is more valuable than a 3B with the same production (I’m assuming his hitting will be the same at either position which seems like a safe assumption)
by benderbrodriguez on Jun 21, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Considered to be more scarce by whom? Look around the league and tell me which position is more scarce.
Pretty similar IMO.
That's hogwash
3B requires less range, more arm
2B requires more range, less arm
SS requires more range, more arm
It’s as simple as that, if a guy fails at SS because of range you move him to third, if he fails because of arm you move him to 2B.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 22, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
No, they won't
I’ll give you 5:1 odds neither is ever an all-star
by benderbrodriguez on Jun 21, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll give you 3:1 that both never make it to MLB
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 22, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
As in you're right if either one misses, or you're right only if both miss?
by benderbrodriguez on Jun 22, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Both have to make it
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 22, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, thousands of guys have looked really good at A+ or AA only to stall out at higher levels
I hope that doesn’t happen, obviously, I just think people tend to see this half-finished product and extrapolate that out instead of realizing that some guys might have already maxed out certain tools.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 23, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
My Biscuit Offense post would be "The Wise Men of Montgomery"
Nevin, Vogt, Mayora. Beckham is old news and there’s not much else to talk about.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
it seem like the Rays love this core group!!!!!!!!!!!
it seems they love this group of guys that have been playing together for a few years now. every starter on montgomery has played mulitple seasons together now. wrigley, beckham, vogt, o’malley, ashley, fronk, and kang…. i will point out two things though… all you writers had timmy bek written off last year and the year and the year before. its funny how yall jump back on the bandwagon when you should have never gotten off. second i challenge the rays to promote and demote multiple players from each league, there 40 man hasnt been updated in over 2 years. sweeny has zero confidence right now and would benifit a demotion being young still
Great first post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@RealNolenBailey
Never jumped off, but thanks though.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 22, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
....
Glass I’ve been to games in hv, clearwater, bowling green,port charlotte and Montgomery. And that’s just the rays farm systems. So instead of telling me to stop writing a post I think you need to actually watch guys play before you give your input on what box score you looked at that day. The rays don’t need a 3rd or 1st basement they have plenty of talent in their farm. Timmy bek is a fine ss so quit all the chatter about moving him.
by STDR on Jun 22, 2011 1:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Please point out this chatter.
“I watch the guys play, I don’t need them thar fancy stats”
@RealNolenBailey
A few things:
1. Use the reply feature. It makes the conversation easier to read.
2. I’ve also seen Timmy Becks play. That’s one reason I never jumped off the bandwagon despite his “statistical struggles” some pointed to. The talk of him moving off SS is typical of bigger SS, and he’s had quite a few scouts say he’d likely move. My point about moving him isn’t that he SHOULD be moved. It’s that IF he moves, his arm makes him more suited for 3B or RF rather than second because at 2B you waste arguably his best tool.
3. Rather than coming on here as a new commenter and showing your ass, why don’t you provide some insight in to the guys you’ve seen? Do a fanpost or even comment in here about the guys you like or particular skills/plays you’ve seen. We always welcome a new set of eyes keeping us up to speed on how the guys are looking.
4. Here are some quotes about Beckham from this offseason:
I haven’t voted, but my explanation for Beckham centers around this:
He’s hit above league average at each stop while playing shortstop and being young. The tools were there until people got concerned about his "body issues" which IMO have largely dissipated. He’s got a great work ethic and and head on his shoulders from all accounts. The likelihood that he’s an average MLB player centers on 2 things: his bat continuing to develop (which it has by his ability to maintain LA numbers in older leagues) and his sticking at SS. For Sale to be better he has to be a very, very good hitter, and for the pitchers to be better they have to develop and not get hurt. I think his is more likely. Even if he comes up at 24 (i.e. repeats a couple levels), he could still be a good player under cost control at a premium position.
This also bothers me: "To be honest, I wouldn’t have had him in a top 30, as one scout put it, if you didn’t know he was a $6 million man, he wouldn’t have stood out."
Two things about this:
1. If he wasn’t the number 1 pick people would be looking more to his strengths than his weaknesses. I think because of his pedigree people look too hard and judge too hard.
2. There’s a reason he was 1:1. He hasn’t been hurt. His body looks good. The wrists are still there. The Rays knew he was a project, and so I put faith that they saw more than just the present talent. That pedigree does mean something.
Finally, people mention his footspeed as reason he may not stick at SS, but take a look at this table:
Top 5 UZR/150 over the last 3 years and SB/150:
JJ Hardy- 1.3
Cesar Izturis- 14
Alexei Ramirez- 13.6
Troy Tulowitzki- 11.4
Yunel Escobar- 5.3
None of them are prolific basestealers. A few are decent (10-15 a year), but both Yuni and Hardy are not basestealers. Once again it seems to me that people are projecting a negativity on his skillset that isn’t necessary.
That’s my Tim Beckham defense for the Community Prospect Rankings.
by rglass44 on Dec 3, 2010 10:23 AM EST up actions
Don’t really grade or do lists.
Just try to keep my opinions in order and take as much in as possible. Getting down to brass tacks, I think he’d slot around a B for me as most of the negatives are overblown IMO, and I have faith that he’ll get the development he needs from the org. From what I’ve seen of him (very little last spring) he looked like he could stick at SS if he got the footwork down. His batspeed is good-to-great, and he’s got a great work ethic. His performance this year will carry a lot of weight to me. If he improves his pop to where it was in 2009 and keeps the BB% (and lowerds the K%) I’ll be happy. If he moves up to AA, and he posts the exact same line as last year I won’t be too worried as long as his defense improves. I’m just much more hesitant to call a guy with the tools to go 1:1 a bust because he hasn’t put ti together yet. We knew he was raw when we drafted him.
by rglass44 on Jan 12, 2011 4:40 PM EST up actions
Where’s the hate there? I’ve maintained a positive outlook toward the kid the entire time based on scouting reports, seeing him play, and statistics.
top 5 list from A-AA-AAA
first off Glass i wasnt being an ass just hate when somebody knocks on a post thats not directed at them. about timmy bek a lot of people did have him written off. ive read enough hate on the young SS to state my opinion. after taking your idea to give some scouting info on the players ive seen, ive decide to do a top five prospects list from each main league. these selections arent limited to players i have personally watched either. also i want to point out after reading some post on different players i was shocked/angry to see the user Doug09 repeatedly accuse a player of steroids. please stay tuned as i compile my list after work
Will do.
@SandyKazmir
Yes I've only been a fan since 2009.
by blackraven on May 5, 2011 3:46 PM EDT
by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 22, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
OK here it is... constructive input please if you have anything to say
i will give my own scouting report on players i have seen play more then 5 times. the order does not mean higher on list :
A
* Tyler Bortnick
* Hack Ju Lee
* Kyle Lobstein
* Merrill Kelly
* Greg Sexton (average hitter, with great range/defensive skills at 3B)
Bonus Baby:
- Anthony Scelfo ( very average hitter, the kid is quick as shit and you can tell hes got an athletic bloodline, prefer this guy in CF/RF. former QB, you know the kid wants to show off his arm)
AA
* Matt Moore ( set it all up with that fastball and its a good one too. looks at batter for batter meaning doesnt get ahead of himself)
* Tim Beckham ( watching him mature from his first year as a teenager with the skill set to be a pro one day. his fielding is above average with average range. reminds me of a late blooming starlin castro)
* Stephen Vogt ( you will surely see this kid in the pro one day, solid hitter with a smooth swing, N. Ashely to me has better catching tools, and Vogt looks just fine to play corner OF)
* Daniel Mayora
* Marguis Flemming
Bonus Baby: i am gonna put two players here for AA.
- Nevin Ashley ( clearly better then what they have up in durham. decent power/ above average durability for a tough position, and a brick wall behind the plate)
- Henry Wrigley ( clearly had a break out year in 2010. power is down in 2011 if you look at HR but then you take a look at 2B hes leading the league. as far as im concerned double are just as good from a power point. takes one of the biggest/power swings ive seen! above average fielding and could potentially be a 5 position player in the pros. i guess a downside is his BB but then again he doesnt strikeout a whole lot either.)
AAA
* Desmond Jennings (all i will say is tampa needs to quit playing games with this kid and put him out on the battle field… end of story)
* Brandon Guyer
* Russ Canzler
* Alex Cobb
* Brandon Gomes
Bonus Baby:
- Robinson Chirinos ( im gonna put him in the spot because i just want to see if he can post a good year like he did in the california league, if you arent familiar with the league it is by the easiest hitting league. this is not a knock to him but you can see a lot by switching from leagues to leagues)
players deserving a drop/ or worse:
Omar Luna
JJ Furmiak
Craig Albernaz
Alex Torres
Matt Sweeny
Reid Fronk
Joe Cruz
Drew Leary
Scott Shuman
Justin Biell
Shane Minks

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