FanPost

Rays vs Mariners, June 3rd Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rays and the Mariners using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 12:01 AM PDT)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Andy Sonnanstine Jason Vargas Mariners 52.94% 7.3 55.27% 7.60

 

1 SEA 3-2   51 TB 7-1   101 TB 11-2
2 SEA 2-1   52 SEA 7-5   102 SEA 9-7
3 SEA 4-3   53 TB 7-6   103 TB 9-8
4 TB 3-2   54 SEA 7-0   104 SEA 10-5
5 TB 2-1   55 SEA 8-2   105 SEA 11-1
6 SEA 5-4   56 SEA 8-3   106 TB 11-3
7 TB 4-3   57 SEA 8-1   107 SEA 10-6
8 SEA 3-1   58 TB 8-2   108 TB 11-4
9 SEA 4-2   59 TB 8-3   109 TB 10-6
10 TB 3-1   60 SEA 8-4   110 SEA 11-4
11 TB 4-2   61 TB 6-0   111 TB 10-7
12 SEA 1-0   62 SEA 8-7   112 TB 11-1
13 SEA 4-1   63 TB 8-4   113 SEA 10-9
14 TB 5-4   64 TB 8-5   114 TB 10-0
15 SEA 5-3   65 SEA 9-2   115 SEA 12-3
16 SEA 2-0   66 TB 8-1   116 SEA 11-0
17 SEA 5-2   67 SEA 8-5   117 SEA 11-5
18 TB 5-3   68 SEA 9-3   118 SEA 12-1
19 TB 4-1   69 SEA 8-0   119 SEA 12-2
20 SEA 6-5   70 TB 7-0   120 TB 11-5
21 SEA 3-0   71 TB 9-3   121 TB 11-6
22 TB 1-0   72 SEA 9-1   122 SEA 10-7
23 SEA 5-1   73 TB 8-6   123 SEA 12-4
24 TB 5-2   74 SEA 8-6   124 TB 12-3
25 TB 2-0   75 TB 8-7   125 TB 11-0
26 SEA 6-3   76 SEA 9-4   126 TB 12-2
27 SEA 4-0   77 TB 9-2   127 TB 12-4
28 TB 3-0   78 TB 9-1   128 TB 10-8
29 TB 6-4   79 SEA 10-2   129 TB 10-9
30 TB 6-3   80 TB 9-4   130 TB 12-5
31 SEA 6-2   81 TB 8-0   131 SEA 10-8
32 SEA 6-4   82 SEA 9-5   132 TB 12-1
33 SEA 6-1   83 TB 9-5   133 SEA 13-3
34 TB 6-5   84 SEA 10-1   134 SEA 13-2
35 TB 5-1   85 SEA 10-3   135 SEA 11-6
36 TB 6-2   86 SEA 9-0   136 TB 13-4
37 SEA 5-0   87 SEA 9-8   137 SEA 12-6
38 TB 4-0   88 TB 9-6   138 TB 11-7
39 SEA 7-6   89 TB 10-3   139 SEA 13-1
40 SEA 7-2   90 TB 9-7   140 TB 13-2
41 SEA 7-3   91 TB 10-2   141 SEA 11-7
42 TB 6-1   92 SEA 10-4   142 TB 12-6
43 SEA 7-4   93 TB 10-4   143 TB 13-3
44 TB 7-3   94 SEA 9-6   144 SEA 12-0
45 SEA 7-1   95 TB 9-0   145 SEA 12-5
46 SEA 6-0   96 TB 10-5   146 SEA 13-5
47 TB 7-4   97 TB 10-1   147 SEA 13-4
48 TB 7-2   98 SEA 11-3   148 SEA 13-0
49 TB 7-5   99 SEA 10-0   149 TB 11-8
50 TB 5-0   100 SEA 11-2   150 TB 13-1

 

 

Pitching Lines

Name IP SO BB Hits HR PC FIP
Andy Sonnanstine 5.78 2.94 2.61 6.07 0.59 89.94 4.867
Jason Vargas 6.36 4.33 2.07 6.09 0.64 97.94 4.125


Total Runs Odds and Ends
Less than X runs scored Probability
1.5 3.535%
2.5 6.603%
3.5 15.861%
4.5 22.53%
5.5 34.992%
6.5 43.081%
7.5 55.086%
8.5 62.596%
9.5 72.098%
10.5 77.830%
11.5 84.311%
12.5 88.001%
13.5 91.796%
14.5 93.920%
15.5 95.993%

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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