Pondering the Rays Future
by MrNegative1 on Jul 29, 2011 1:30 PM EDT
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As we all know, the Rays are trying to compete in the most difficult division in baseball on a very limited budget -- a budget constrained by a stadium that doesn't drive revenues and an area that has very limited corporate sponsorship. Can the Rays climb the mountain and find themselves on top in the AL East? Certainly. The Rays did it in 2008 and again in 2010, but the real question is: what obstacles will the team have to overcome, and how will they clear them in order to rebuild the current squad?
As it is Friday and the non-waiver trade deadline is fast approaching, let's have an open thread about the possible trades that may happen relative to the Rays and their future, and if the Rays are a prime candidate to be moved out of the AL East.
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In order to fill gaps on the 2012 roster the Rays are aggressively shopping B.J. Upton around the league, and I suspect Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Kotchman, Joel Peralta, Jeff Niemann, and Johnny Damon are available as well. The return on these trades may help the Rays fill several gaps that exist as we look toward 2012. Will moving these players now provide enough major league talent to fill the holes that will be open at DH, 1B, SS, CF, and the bullpen? What type of return are you looking for the players mentioned, and how many of these players do you expect to be dealt? Will James Shields be dealt in the offseason or is there still a chance he is dealt by Sunday?
***
I don't believe any team has to overcome as much to achieve as the Rays do by playing in the AL East. To prove this point, just ask any other owner in MLB to switch places with the Rays. Even an owner with tremendous resources would be hard pressed to accept a move to the East, but this is what I believe has to happen in the next CBA. The Rays should be moved into the AL Central and either the Tigers or White Sox moved to the AL East. The Tigers are a team that has a more AL East type model of operating. They are able to sign free agents, they can absorb risk of bad contracts (Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, etc.), and they have the ability to move prospects when needed to acquire pieces at the trade deadline.
Would Mike Illitch voluntarily move the Tigers to the AL East? I highly doubt it, but Bud Selig is going to have to realign the division based on geography and on economic resources of each organization (something I suspect he knows all too well, as he gladly moved the Brewers out of the AL East to accommodate the Rays). In five years, will the Rays still being in the AL East? Will they still be an American League club? Where is the most logical landing spot for the Rays?
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I'm watching Alex Torres's start from yesterday.
Any chance he gets a mid-season call next year, or does he still have too much developing to do?
I highly doubt Shields gets traded at the deadline or in the offseason, but I think whatever combination of Shields, Davis, and Niemann is available will depend on Torres. (Cobb and Moore are well ahead of him, right?)
Cobb and Moore are ahead of Torres.
Torres really needs to harness his stuff with better control and command. He could be ready by mid-season 2012 for sure but he won’t be better than a 4-5 starter until he commands the pitches.
First off, I don't think Torres will ever get more command. He will have to be "effectively wild".
On top of that, I think that he can be effectively wild to a 3/4 starter role. His stuff is good enough for him to do this, and it isn’t as if his control is just awful.
He walks almost 5 per 9 innings.
The control is not there, yet. His stuff is #2 starter worthy but I fear that without improved control the MLB hitters will make that BB/9 look silly since minor leaguers already make it look bad. Don’t get me wrong, I like Torres a lot, but he has a little ways to go still.
Wait are you talking about Archer or Torres? I'm confused
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't let R33J or Randy Glass see you utter such impossibles. They will both be the best pitchers ever to represent their handedness
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Who said impossible?
I love Torres and Archer, and have fought for them here, but they are not top of the rotation guys and need to improve in order to be so.
The problem is his "ways to go" aren't coming.
He isn’t all of a sudden going to figure his command out after many years in the minors. His BB/9 will look silly in the majors, but it is something you will have to live with. Heck, we have a guy in Davis who practically walsk as many as he strikes out and has mediocre stuff yet we haven’t jumped ship yet.
If his command was average, he would be a 2 starter. The below average control will make him a 3/4.
Jonathan Sanchez is a comparable pitcher.
Nobody is jumping ship on Torres.
And since when can’t command/control be improved? It’s not an overnight thing but it can be done.
Why is everyone so desperate to move TB out of a division they will have won 2 of the last 4 years????
This may come as a shock, but the Rays are not that good this year. They would have a better record due to a softer schedule if they were in the ALC, but they would not be a better team or have a better shot at winning the World Series if they were in another division. They can, and I think will, win the ALE again in spite of the low payroll, or at least win the Wild Card. The Rays, geographically, are not a central team. It does not make sense.
I’m all for a balanced schedule, with or without realignment, but I don’t think the Rays need to play in any other division. If they want to be World Champs, they will have to be better than Boston and New York regardless of which division they play in.
because having all the stars align as they did in '08 and '10 isn't very likely
and why keep penalizing a well run franchise that might win 90 games a year and be left out in the cold?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
This hasn't happened yet....
might win 90 games a year and be left out in the cold?
and while it could, it strikes me as a more remote possibility than the Rays never winning the ALE again in the next 3-5 seasons. You could argue that it happened in ‘09, but does anyone think the Rays were good enough to win it all in ’09? They have gotten in when they deserved it and haven’t gotten in when they haven’t deserved to. I don’t see the problem.
The 09 rays were better than the 08 rays
So yes.
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 29, 2011 3:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It doesn't how good they are/were compared to themselves in previous seasons.
They were better than the Sox/Yanks in ‘08 and ’10, they weren’t in ‘09. They didn’t really deserve to get to the postseason in ‘09 and they didn’t. They don’t deserve it this year and they won’t make it this year either.
My point is they have never won 90 games and not made the playoffs and I doubt they ever would. Unless we go to a balanced schedule, it is hard to imagine 3 teams in the ALE winning 90 games. But, if MLB moves to a balanced scheduled, it will like be part of playoff expansion which would decrease the odds of them getting out left in the cold.
i'm sure Sternberg will fight tooth and nail to get his team out of the ALE
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Toronto having money again with an intelligent front office is going to make winning the ALE even more difficult.
I like the glory of beating out the Sox and Yanks for AL East titles, but we’re going to be the 4th best team in the division next year.
@ptSuttery
Removal of divisions for two fifteen team leagues is honestly the best bet
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 29, 2011 1:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think/hope this will happen.
And, if it does no one will be moving to the NL. An NL team will be moving to the AL.
MR. M.J.R.
I know you think your idea makes sense. But MR. Mike is right about attendance with boston and yankees. That is why Namoli got them in ALE. This is a buddy buddy decision from the owners and money is the bottom line,even if it means a move to the N.L.
Your post does not make sense.
First, it isn’t my idea, it’s the idea that has been thrown by people who think playoff expansion is coming to MLB and the realignment would come along with it.
Second, I don’t understand if you are saying there WON’T move to the NL because of the income from Sox and Yanks fans at the Trop (doubt it) or that, but then you say money is the bottom line which is why they WILL move to the NL.
There are 14 teams in the AL and 16 in the NL. If there is realignment, it is probable than an NL team would move to the AL to balance the leagues. Again, not my idea, but I like it if it comes with playoff expansion.
MR. M.J
People that think don’t matter.People that own matter and that is who decides. It is not only the Rays that will make money in reallignment, other teams will look at their bottom line. If enough owners make more money moving us, guess what, we pack it up partner.
OK.....
Then, who makes money if we move to the NL vs. stay in the AL???? Stu and Co. probably make more money staying in the AL East, so I doubt they would push to get out of the AL East for financial reasons. And, if the much-rumored-about playoff expansion is coming, then divisions won’t matter anyways because the schedule will be balanced the Yanks and Sox won’t be an obstacle to making the playoffs, so the Rays make more money there too.
Trust Me
it is very complicated and full of backroom deals. Nothing is off the table. 2 could move to AL and 1 to NL.
Why should I trust you?
Are you some kind of MLB “insider” with first-hand knowledge of what goes in MLB owner’s meetings??? I doubt that you know more about the process than anyone else that posts here.
If your point is “anything can happen”, I agree. But just because something is possible, that doesn’t mean it is likely.
Might be tough due to economy but it will work and many cities would welcome it.
It’s a pipe dream but one that makes sense.
One word. Bleak.
They have no money, lousy ballpark, lousy area and too far from me (Lakeland). Tampa is much easier! Competing with the millionaires club (ny, boston) free agency, no salary cap.
I just don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. Unless they move to the nl or they re-align to 15 teams and 2 wildcards. But even with that, the millionaire teams will steal their top players (Longoria,Price,etc.)
Baseball needs a salary cap and a new fair cba.
"Too far from Lakeland"
get out forever
Stupidest comment ever
If you want to keep guns out of the hands of thugs, just attach job applications to them
response
Great reply. A lot of thought put into it. Well you know what, fuck you!!!
by dram57 on Jul 29, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
To the box
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
No thanks dram57
If Lakeland is too far then don’t be a fan. I drive farther than you and get to 6 to 10 a year.
If you want to keep guns out of the hands of thugs, just attach job applications to them
I live in east Orlando (UCF area) and have been to 6 games already this year.
Stick with your other “reasons.”
"If you want to get laid, go to college. If you want an education, go to the library." ~Frank Zappa
Doesn't make his reason moot, guys.
We don’t know his financial situation either. He said Tampa was easier for him and that’s probably more to his point.
He has no point MR.Mitchell
and neither do you. You would sleep with the devil to move the team to tampa. Community spirit ,from tampans, give me a break.
MR. Mitchell
Honesty is best policy. I admire that. You are a true gentleman in my book.
How is moving to Tampa sleeping with the devil?
Please explain.
mr.m.j.r.
He is being to friendly with the man with a dirty mouth that now sits in the time out box.
Let's just say
You don’t understand me, and let’s put it to bed.
Let's just say
You like to make outlandish statements without expansion or explanation for dramatic effect, and let’s put it to bed.
Not if I have to go to Tampa
I’ll never spend a dime in that crap hole.
Salary cap is not all it's cracked up to be.
And a cap would probably kill this team financially because the salary floor (with a cap comes a floor) would likely be over what the Rays can afford to pay. Boston and NY have won 4 of the last 10 World Series combined. Higher payroll does not equal championships, it just means that they are in it every year while we have to rebuild ever other year or so.
Is it sad that I cringe
Everytime I pass Raymond James and see Steinbrenner Field? It bothers me all too much.
I always
tip my cap when I pass the Bosses field.
by Landlord on Jul 29, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
add a wildcard and balance the schedule
then it really won’t matter if they are in the East or not, since no one else will ever agree to move in
I think balanced schedule is really the answer.
It means fewer Sox v Yanks games for NESPN to promote/mooch off of, but I think it would be better for everyone. Of course, a balanced schedule means that the Sox and Yanks get to play a more softball schedule too. But, at least your 4-5 best teams would actually be the 4-5 best teams and not a “best team in a crap division”.
you have to add a wildcard too
or we would really have to move out of the division
it's better for attendance too
as more teams are in the playoff race longer into the year
And less home games for the Rays against those teams.
Which probably means lower attendance.
Twitter: @mbleazy
But don't you have to beat the Yanks/Sox still to be a legit contender?
Yes the rays could get in the playoffs more but they’d still have to beat one of those teams to get over the hump. Unless you’re just thinking in terms of revenue gains.
I ’m still afraid they had their WS chance and didn;t make the most of it.
I agree, in fact, I've actually made this same point earlier in this thread:
I’m all for a balanced schedule, with or without realignment, but I don’t think the Rays need to play in any other division. If they want to be World Champs, they will have to be better than Boston and New York regardless of which division they play in.
by M.J.R. on Jul 29, 2011 1:39 PM EDT
It would be interesting to see each team's frequent flyer miles for this year and in the past side by side
Have to think that the Rays cover more distance than any other ALE team and probably more than the Central as well.
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
Wow thanks for this
More than any team except California and Seattle. I’m sure at some point that gets pretty taxing
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish Guyer didn't get hurt
I think we were getting ready to see even more of the future.
Well, he should be ok in September where a few things I want to see is IF Upton is dealt, everyday, lefty or righty we go with Sean at SS, Guyer in LF, Jennings in CF and Joyce in RF. I would also like to see Toress get a start or 2 and stay in the pen.
Under construction
Back to the thread, thanks for the hijack joey, even if the Rays won the division every year
the economic disadvantage they’re at makes the whole thing terribly unfair
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
partially true
While the rays are obviously not making the gate rev of philly or the Tv dough of NYY at some point it comes down to a commitment to winning. I’m totally ok not dipping my toe in the FA market (most longterm deals aren’t good for teams as discussed in another thread) but at some point you have to spend dough to keep your developed stars (price/longo).
The rays can only cry foul up to a certain point then MLB can call them on not being commited to win.
What if the developed stars don't want to sign?
There is no way the Rays can afford Price if he hits free agency. They may not even be able to afford his arbitration. If Price doesn’t sign a long-term extension (and why would he?), he will be leaving before we know it. How could MLB call them on that?
It isn’t about commitment to win, the FO has shown that they have that. It’s about the Rays not having the same resources as the larger-market teams. A new TV deal and a new stadium will go a long way towards helping that, but we will never have the resources that the big market teams have. Which means we will always lose our brightest stars to free agency/trades.
If they can't afford
to pay arby numbers then they shouldn’t be in the league.
I totally agree (as I stated the scales are unabalanced) and more rev sharing needs to be done. But most teams can afford at least 1-2 big price players. I can’t see any team expecting to compete without paying anyone over a few mil. Pitchers will always cost a pretty penny it’s the nature of the business.
Do you think the Marlins like having 40% of their payroll tied up in Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez right now? How about the Indians with Hafner and Sizemore?
All were can’t miss, exciting players that were sure to be a solid core to build around.
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the answer then?
I can’t see being a WS contender without spending some money at some point. Like I said I’m glad they don’t bother with the FA market but I guess I don’t have a good answer to your question. You still need to have good sense when spending but I guess you can still miss. I’m for making the system more fair so you can take a risk but I’m wondering if some teams will still not want to spend the dough even with a more balanced economy.
i don't think the intention of arby was for a $15mil dollar Price Fielder--in other words, it's not working
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
If he's worth $25 and it's his last year before free agency then it sort of is
If Price is worth $20 and we get him for $10 then the system works, we just don’t have the resources to play within it.
@SandyKazmir
Sometimes you eat the bear...
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 29, 2011 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
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