Hak-Ju Lee We were at the Charlotte/Tampa game last night. Lee walked twice and hit a booming...

Hak-Ju Lee

We were at the Charlotte/Tampa game last night. Lee walked twice and hit a booming triple in extra innings, but that is not what impressed us.

It was seeing him play shortstop. He made a number of wonderful plays, two on grounders deep in the hole that he played perfectly and one line drive up the middle that he snow coned due to quick reflexes and terrific timing. He also made a nice play on a grounder up the middle.

He looks so smooth out there, and everything seems effortless. He always gets into a good position to throw. On those balls in the hole, he got behind them so he could set and throw. They were not easy plays. It took quickness to avoid having to backhand them and end up moving the wrong way.

10 months ago bobr 6 comments 0 recs |

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Good stuff.

Love to see him as a high-contact/decent power plus defensive SS. That will play on pretty much any team.

by rglass44 on Jul 30, 2011 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

OT: bob, been wondering all season what your thoughts on Kotch are?

Specifically, where do you estimate his true talent level, your willingness to consider improved vision a factor, thoughts on his skill set perhaps increasing in relative value in a power drought era?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2011 2:47 PM EDT reply actions

Thank you for asking.

I am not sure I really mean that. I feel as if the Hatfields just invited me to a party to be held in the McCoy’s parlor.

The simplest and probably truest answers I can give are “I don’t know”, “I don’t know” and “That is an interesting question I haven’t thought about much, nor am I sure that we are definitely in a power drought era so much as a reduced power season.”

I will say that I was a Dan Johnson supporter almost until he was demoted, and long before he even came to the Rays. So my reliability is certainly suspect if not downright nil. But here goes.

It appears Kotchman can be a 2-3 win player in any given season, maybe a bit more. I have no way of knowing about the medical issue. It may be coincidence more than cause-effect that the procedure came just before a resurgence of his BA, but it is reasonable to think it is the cause of the turnaround, so I am willing to accept that explanation but want to see a multi-year level of play before committing to it.

If he really is now healthy, I suppose he can have a .350-.370 or so OBP with excellent defense (and the ripple effect of that on the rest of the infield) but inadequate power for the position. If the Rays had a Hanley type shortstop or Utley type second baseman, &/or a 30+ home run outfielder or DH, that would be less of an issue, but lacking that, I would prefer to have someone else play 1B.

I am very happy the Rays signed him. He is contributing so that the position is not a black hole like others have been. I was not averse to the minor league signing at the time as I think that anyone who reaches the majors has a not inconsiderable chance to contribute to a team no matter how badly he has played in recent years. But in my view he is only the best person for the Rays now because there is nobody available in the system whom we may expect to do better, not because he is really a good choice.

One more point. I think part of the Rays offensive woes are due to not having a varied enough offense. Too many of our players are high K types. There may be no significant difference between a strikeout and other outs, but when there are few contact hitters, I think it does limit an offense so that we get these episodes of failure to score men on base and lengthy scoring droughts. The fact the Kotchman does not strike out much is a real plus, even if he does hit too many grounders, but I would prefer to see that skill exhibited at another position with power residing at 1B. Again, if chance gave the Rays power at the right price elsewhere, Kotchman would be much more valuable to us.

Maybe I am not interpreting your last question correctly, but wouldn’t the power skill be rarer and so more valuable relatively speaking in a power drought era while Kotchman’s skill set of contact, good BA/OBP be more easily available and so less valuable? I suppose it would make power hitters more expensive, but by the same token, if they could be found cheaply the relative value would be greater. Is my logic off base?

by bobr on Jul 30, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Thoughtful answer. Thanks.

And I would say you’ve summed up his value perfectly: nice find, good season, need more from that position going forward as the team is currently constituted.

by the jabber on Jul 30, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Appreciate the thoughtful comments

I don’t have much too add except to clarify on the final point. If power is harder to come by, then yes it comes as a premium. There are a few true boppers who strike fear deep into the heart of pitchers.

For many other true outcome hitters, more home runs may turn into in-play balls which have the highest incidence of outs of any batted ball type. They also are often the most shift-able pull players which can lower BABIP. It is also possible that they will see a reduction in walks due to a lessened fear factor from the pitchers. True outcome hitters derive so much of their value from walks and the long ball.

If power indeed is on the decline, many of these players have greatly reduced value. A high contact spray hitter is less affected by the environment and therefore might remain more steady in production. By staying constant, they increase in relative value. Its just a theory, of which I have done little work to try to prove.

If true what we may see is a shift to more athletic first-basemen. The OPS gap between 1B and the middle infield positions has narrowed dramatically over the past few seasons as illustrated here http://www.draysbay.com/2011/7/26/2296208/position-ops-by-year-follow-up-to-kotch-thread

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jul 30, 2011 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Always a pleasure to see you comment here Bob

I know that lengthy coments are frowned on in this twitter / video game dominant communication era, but your comments always demonstrate thought and depth.

It’s going to be an interesting off season for the Rays. It’s obvious some offense has to be gotten. And I’m not convinced bring up Guyer and jennings makes much difference. Good chance a pitcher trade happens.

But I wonder if some of the inactivity the Rays have shown this deadline is a product of too high demands from their FO. Perhaps they’ve been spoiled by a few very one-sided seeming deals. It isn’t always going to be that way.

But we’ll see – my take on the Rays FO is they do a very good job in the trade and castoff pickup arena. I’m not so impressed by their draft acumen – not to say they haven’t had a few very nice finds beyond the top 2 rounds.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jul 31, 2011 6:31 PM EDT reply actions