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Monday Rays Wrap Up: Rays Post Season Push Continues

Is it too late to buy in to the Rays as post-season contenders? Winners of 5 in a row and 10 out of their last 12? This week the Rays traveled to Fenway Park and took 2 out of 3 from the Red Sox and returned home to take 3 in a row from the Seattle Mariners to finish the week at 5-1. They are a season high 13 games over .500 with a record of 69-56 and trail the Boston Red Sox by 7.5 games for the wild card and the New York Yankees by 8 games for the division. Coolstandings.com gives the Rays a 0.4% chance at winning the AL East and a 4.4% chance at winning the wild card and entering today's action Baseball Prospectus gives them a 1.3% chance at making the postseason. 

The Rays will continue their chase of the post-season as they host the Detroit Tigers for a four game series starting Monday evening. The pitching matchups against the Tigers will be Jeff Niemann vs Justin Verlander (Monday), David Price vs Brad Penny (Tuesday), Wade Davis vs Max Scherzer (Wednesday), and Doug Fister vs Jeremy Hellickson (Thursday).  After the Detroit series the Rays will head to Toronto for a weekend series against the Blue Jays. The pitching matchups will be James Shields vs Henderson Alvarez (Friday), Jeff Niemann vs Luis Perez (Saturday), and David Price vs Brandon Morrow (Sunday).  The Red Sox will travel to Texas for a four game series before returning home to host the Oakland Athletics over the weekend. The Yankees will host the Athletics for three games beginning Tuesday evening before travelling to Baltimore for a weekend series.

Question of the Day?

The Rays have the fourth best record in the American League behind the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers yet according to the mathematical modeling performed at coolstandings.com and baseballprospectus.com, the Rays have less than a 5% chance at appearing in the post-season. The question for debate is will Major League Baseball expand the post-season by adding an additional wild card? If so, will the wild card playoff round be a 1-game winner advances or best of 3 series?

More After the Jump

Star-divide

Tuesday Afternoon:  James Shields gives up 1 run in a complete game  3-1 loss to the Red Sox.

Shileds made one mistake, a three run homer to Jacoby Ellsbury.

When asked more he could of done Tuesday, Shields replied, "Not give up any runs."

"I didn't make my pitches, and that's what it came down to," Shields said. "I don't have any control about what [the offense does]. I only have control about what I do out there. There's nothing else I can do. I've got my job to do, and that's to pitch. ... I'm also a perfectionist. I feel like I should have won that game 1-0." - mlb.com

Tuesday evening: Jeff Niemann allows 2 runs while striking out 10 in a complete game 6-2 victory over the Red Sox to get a split of the day-night doubleheader. The victory moved the Rays to within 9 games of the Red Sox with 41 games to play.

Joe Maddon was very happy with how the Rays responded after a tough game 1 loss:

"I love the fact that our team loses a very difficult game in the first game and comes back and plays much better in the nightcap," Maddon said. "That's who we are. That's what I appreciate about our players. We're never out of it. Nobody believes we're out of this thing; everybody believes we're in this thing right now. I really appreciate that about our group." -- mlb.com

Wednesday: David Price throws 8 scoreless innings and Kyle Farnsworth works the ninth as the Rays capture the series with a 4-0 victory.

Joe Maddon about playing in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium:

"And I love that about our guys. We're not intimidated by either place. We enjoy the moment at both places, and that's what I'm saying, man. If we get these pitchers to stay hot like this and we put the offense together ... it's been done before." - mlb.com

Friday: The Rays battled back to score 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th inning off Seattle ACE Felix Hernandez to win the opening game of the 3 game series 3-2 (VIDEO LINK HERE). With one out and nobody on in the bottom of the eighth, Joe Maddon called on Sam Fuld to pinch hit for Sean Rodriguez and Fuld responded by delivering a single. Johnny Damon then beat out an infield single to put runners on first and second for Evan Longoria. Longoria hit a single to score Fuld and Ben Zobrist followed with a bloop single to score Damon and give the Rays a 3-2 lead. Kyle Farnsworth worked the ninth for his 22nd save.  The victory gave the 2011 Rays their 4th straight victory over a former Cy Young Award winner (Colon, Sabathia twice, and Hernandez) and improved their record against former Cy Young Award winners to 22-9 since 2009.  

The key play was Johnny Damon's hustle to beat out the infield hit:

"That's the one thing you can control in this game and that's hustling," Damon said. "That's why I've done it ever since I was a kid and, you know, it paid off. There's been plenty of those this year where you know you're off by a half a step. But right there I showed my track wheels that I had back in the day." -- mlb.com 

And B.J. Upton had this to say about Damon's speed:

"You know what, Johnny's fast, man," B.J. Upton said. "I think a lot of people think he's lost speed. But if he's lost speed, I would have liked to have seen him when he really had it, because he can still get down the line." -- mlb.com

Sam Fuld on Johnny Damon's hustle and how about Fuld's toothless grin?

Saturday: Jeremy Hellickson followed his peers and tossed 8 scoreless innings and along wtih Joel Peralta's one scoreless inning went on to coast to an 8-0 victory (Video Link) over the Seattle Mariners. The Rays were able to pick up a full game in the standings on both the Yankees and the Red Sox for the first time since May 12th.  Evan Longoria hit his 20th home run on the season, joining only  Eddie Matthews as 3rd baseman to have three 20+ home run seasons in each of their first three seasons. About creeping up in the standings, Joe Maddon has asked his team to go "Butch Cassidy" on those guys:

"We need more of those days, especially right now," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "Again, we want to be 'who are those guys?' Let's go Butch Cassidy on those guys. Just keep sneaking up from behind. Our guys are playing really well."  -- mlb.com

Before Saturday's game Joe Maddon explains why he is going to allow the players to start arriving later to the ballpark.

Sunday: James Shields did not  have his best stuff and Johnny Damon bails out manager Joe Maddon after a questionable decision to bring Shields out for the eighth inning by hitting a walk off home run (VIDEO LINK HERE) to give the Rays an 8-7 victory.

Over the last 7 games coming into Sunday's contest, Rays starting pitchers had pitched 52.1 of 61 innings and compiled an ERA of 1.89. Unfortunately, James Shields wasn't his normal self on Sunday and got beat up by an anemic Seattle offense giving up 7 runs in 7.1 innings pitched. The Rays battled back to take a 7-5 lead after 7 innings and Joe Maddon wanted to try and squeeze one more inning out of Shields. Shields gave up a single to Casper Wells to lead off the eighth, retired Adam Kennedy on a fly out to left, but then surrendered a 2-run homer to Willy Mo Pena to tie the score at 7-7.  The Rays threatened in the bottom of the eighth and had the bases loaded with two outs when Dan Cortes uncorked a wild pitch back to the screen that took a friendly Seattle bounce off the backstop to Josh Bard who barely threw Joyce out at home. Kyle Farnsworth held Seattle scoreless in the top of the ninth setting up a walk off home run by Johnny Damon in the bottom of the ninth on the very first pitch by Dan Cortes.

"It was pretty crazy," Cortes said. "The very first pitch, he just looked like he was ready to hack. You can't do anything about it. You just tip your cap to him and just move on." - mlb.com

Johnny Damon had this to say about how "far" he hit the ball"

"The first pitch I was going to look to jerk something," Damon said. "But after that I was going to think about bunting and getting on base to set the table for [Evan Longoria]. You can't really think [home run], you just want to hit the ball hard and fortunately I hit it far enough."- mlb.com

The post game interview with Johnny Damon:

SF1 BLASTOFF:

Hello Rays fans, 

It's been a while since i did this piece, what with MrNegative1 and I on vacations and then the ASB before, it's been a month since we interacted in this manner.

The Rays have refused to die, and seem to be following the mantra of waiting for the fat lady to sing.

This week saw some great SP except for today's game. Basically, imo as the SP goes so will the Rays.

Jeff Niemann at this point appears to be our most dominant SP. Who'd thunk it?

It's also great to see Evan Longoria doing what Rays fans expect, carrying the offense. And how can the lead off heroics of Desmond Jennings be over looked? He also has more pop than I'd anticipated.

This will be a tough series ahead starting tonight with Justin Verlander going for the Tigers against Nioemann. Hopefully we put up the same 6 runs against him we did last time, but it results in a win.

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Remember when we used to pop bubbly for win #70?

I don’t miss those days at all and will gladly buy pints for all if we get to #90. Go Rays!

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 10:15 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I'm going to be more pissed about getting to 90 wins and missing the playoffs

than I was about not getting out of the ALDS last season.

If this team wins 90, Joe needs to be AL Manager of the Year again. F Tito, Joe, Leyland, and Wash — look what they have to work with.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Aug 22, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think that, as a Rays fan, I want them to win the World Series every season....

But, as a realist, I know that in the AL East with a low payroll, they will not be able to make the playoffs every year. But, if they can keep themselves in the race and play meaningful baseball games in September even in a “down” year, which it looks like they are going to do, you have to be satisfied with that.

by M.J.R. on Aug 22, 2011 10:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Can Reid Brignac possibly sink any lower in the Rays outlook?

Yesterday was just his 2nd start since returning from DUR and he gets lifted for the LH Ruthianesque Sam Fuld in the 7th inning—Ouch

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Aug 22, 2011 10:34 AM EDT reply actions  

Briggy can't hit

Jennings topped his XBH in his 2nd game in the bigs, they need to fix that swing of his in the Spring. But the 2nd part of it is people don’t seem to notice but Fuld has been pretty good at this pinch hitting thing lately

Under construction

by joeybw on Aug 22, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rey Odonez

Sometimes a team, maybe not ours but some team out there will play that glove every day.

Under construction

by joeybw on Aug 22, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I see what I see

And the guy can’t hit but he is a great fielder. Incredible range and quick toss to 1st.

Under construction

by joeybw on Aug 22, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

He isn't a gold glove SS

His defense is overrated on this board. He is an above average defender to the eyes, but the stats don’t back that up.

by Sveet on Aug 22, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Its SSS

UZR/150 takes something like 3 years to stabalize.

by BJ the Bossman on Aug 22, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm more concerned that it just means the Yanks and Sox will never miss the playoffs again

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 11:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Also it could mean teams like TOR, DET, BAL, LAA, TEX will spend even more

to insure they grab that extra spot

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Aug 22, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's still good for baseball

I want what’s best for the sport

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Aug 22, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Doesn't MLB

want to make sure that the largest markets are in the post-season….at least it makes reasonable sense that would be the goal.

I know a third wild card would also give division winners that advantage of resting their rotation while the wild cards would have to use their best pitchers in the 1 or 3 game series.

by MrNegative1 on Aug 22, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't like the 3 division winners plus 2 wild card scenarion

I would much rather go back to 2 division and then have 2 wild cards

by Sveet on Aug 22, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

2 leagues and 5 wildcards

Screw divisions — they blow

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Aug 22, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like that only 4 teams make the playoffs per league

6 is way too many. Do teams 5 and 6 really deserve it?

With the new wildcard rules that would most likely be the Tigers and Angels. Are these playoff teams? No thanks

by Sveet on Aug 22, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

remember my format calls for 32 teams, so 6 isn't that many

4 of 16 NL teams or 25% is the lowest in professional sports

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Aug 22, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

great idea

just sell the union on instituting a salary cap so all teams are on equal footing in that format.

Divisions are an necessary evil based on the inequity of revenue in the sport.

If baseball did have a salary cap (AND I DON’T WANT ONE! I HATE THEM), then the two league 5 top finishers would be a great idea.

by MrNegative1 on Aug 22, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

If the divisions went

1-4 top spenders in one division
5-9 spenders in the next division
10-14 in the last division then it would make sense

by Sveet on Aug 22, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not proposing that

I’m saying I don’t get how division make it more fair for teams with low payrolls

by Sveet on Aug 22, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say you did, just that I've heard it proposed by others and I just don't see how it's feasible

I like the idea of two divisions probably because that’s what I grew up on. I couldn’t imagine seeing the Rays in 14th place and being terribly excited about the rest of the season if they were to do away with them completely as others have proposed.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

This

Divisions are pointless. Just set up two leagues and the 5 best from each side make the playoffs. That way everyone plays an equal schedule as well

by BJ the Bossman on Aug 22, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is why MLB is considering it

They wouldn’t give a shit if the Rays were the ones being left out, but when the Sox and Yanks are left out then they need to make a change

by Sveet on Aug 22, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can see one of them folding.

Not saying it WILL happen, but both have either injuries and/or shaky pitching right now. Only one of them has to fall for the Rays to have a shot.

by M.J.R. on Aug 22, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

How?

One of them has to play at least 4 games below .500 while the Rays go 25-12 the rest of the way. The fact the Rays have the toughest SOS the rest of the way doesn’t help that.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Aug 22, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's important

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who isn't having fun doing that?

Well, besides Sterny?

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Aug 22, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

granted a tough road ahead, but at least there's two teams tied

suppose the Yanks had a 7 game lead, we could sweep them and not really make a dent, this way beat just one of them head to head and we look much better

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Aug 22, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yanks have had trouble with Boston all season

If we can take 5 out of 7 or whatever and the Red Sox can take 4 out of 6 or whatever (assuming we continue to win) then you’re talking 4-5 games made up. We need to catch breaks and continue a strong finish, but I’m still thinking with my heart.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think instead of extra wc spot

You should balance the schedule. It obviously won’t solve the problem of the rays having the 3rd best record and not making the playoffs but at least its fairer

by OneTonneBaby on Aug 22, 2011 11:28 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I'm fully on board with this, go to two divisions with two champions and two wild cards and a balanced schedule

Heck, the Rays already log the most miles of any team not on the West Coast so it’s not like they’d be traveling substantially more.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd like

to have an additional National League Team added to outside of Boston and I’d try to find a team to be placed in Montreal with stable ownership and a state of the art facility. Balance things out at 32 teams, 16 in each league.

Organize the divisions that make first the most fiscal sense (operating wise) and close geography/natural rival (second).

Drop the inter-league battles off the schedule and go to a balanced schedule.

8 division of 4 teams….

No wild card needed.

by MrNegative1 on Aug 22, 2011 11:34 AM EDT reply actions  

couldn't agree more

I just think unbalanced schedule in any sport is ridiculous. How can one team go to the playoffs having to play the padres 12 times a year and a team that plays the red sox 12 times a year dont?

by OneTonneBaby on Aug 22, 2011 11:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

It's really silly that the Rays are neck and neck with the Tigers/Angels and yet we play them 6-7 times a year

Play each AL team 10 times and play your divisional opponents the same 18 times and do away with interleague. You learn nothing about who’s better when team’s each win their home series.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Worm Burners By Design
"I’ve run into a couple as of late," Kotchman said. "I hit a lot of balls on the ground or on a line, so if I mis-hit them just a little bit, they end up in the air and maybe they go into the gap for a double or home run. We’re talking just fractions of an inch on a baseball."

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Aug 22, 2011 12:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Freezo

An interview with Kotch’s High School coach,(a man that along with his father developed Kotch’s swing) would be very interesting for those that may be into that type of analysis. He may give some insight if asked.

by Landlord on Aug 22, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

What he's got can't be taught, just a big, hairy, winning machine right there.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 22, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just like Rush Limbaugh's

talent on loan from God. Only without the hair.

by Landlord on Aug 22, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is a way to expand to one extra WC team, if the 3 divisions are kept.

I’m not sure if I like the idea of expanding the play-offs but there is way to do it with minimal adjustments in the schedule. If the the season started only 3 days sooner(begin on a Friday in late March/early April instead of that Sunday or Monday for most teams), the final series of the season would end on a Thursday. So maybe you lose an exciting weekend series(and some TV money) to end a race but so what. Games will be just as important and fans will show up.

That would allow for a best two of three series between two wild cards team to be played on the weekend after the season ended. A very usual Friday-Sunday series with no travel days. Best play-off record gets all three games at their site. That would give a great deal of importance to having the best wild-card record of the two teams. No time off for either team to begin the series(too bad if their rotation gets messed up….that’s the price they pay) and maybe give one day off after to begin the league divisional series. It would not be that much different in terms of days off for teams winning their division than it is now. A division winning team plays it’s final game on Thursday and plays it’s first play-off game on Tuesday/Wednesday. Time off might be either 4 of 5 days. In fact, a division winning team can set up their rotation by just letting their ace pitch 5/6 innings on the last day of the season(if they chose) and than continue to follow the remaining staff spots.

If there was a concern with starting the season three days early because of weather, than make efforts to play most of those games in warm weather cities or with domes/retractable roofs (currently six with Florida on line next year).

by budman3 on Aug 22, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Glad to see Mr. Sternfan back in print

His writing contributions on the MMrap are outstanding and are greatly missed when he is recharging his batteries. Keep up the great work Sterney.You are the best Mod on the site.
I think it will be interesting when the sept callups arrive and we see how Joe keeps the lineup intact. I think Joe wants to make a run at the playoffs , even though the odds are slim. I think in the back of his mind he also has next year’s team in mind.
I agree with you Mr. Sternfan, that as the SP pitching goes, so go the Rays.

by Landlord on Aug 22, 2011 1:11 PM EDT reply actions  

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