The 2011 Shortstop Crap Heap
Shortstops are not supposed to hit like Jose Reyes. They are not really supposed to hit like Reid Brignac either.
The Rays have had a shortstop problem this year. They started the season with Brignac manning the middle ground, but when his uppercut swing and moderately unfavorable luck produced an epicly bad, sub-.500 OPS, the Rays dropped him down to Durham and gave Sean Rodriguez and Elliot Johnson a shortstop timeshare.
Rodriguez proceeded to hit an unimpressive .222/.300/.343 slash -- not terrible for a shortstop, but not great, not up to the high expectations we had for Sean Rodriguez, and not really good enough to compete in the tough AL East.
Add in Elliot Johnson's sub-.600 OPS and we have a legitimate shortstop doo pile.
Defensively, the Rays shortstops have not been terrible:
The problem starts and ends with the bats:
So, what's the solution? Well, part of the problem is that several of these guys are not playing at their true talent levels.
Since his return to the team, Reid Brignac has shown better defense and a more horizontal swing. Both things are very good signs, but still, he's a 25-year-old shortstop who has never hit more than 3% above average in Triple-A. It seems quite unlikely he is the long-term shortstop solution we need.
Meanwhile, Sean Rodriguez, who made Triple-A his prison wife in both 2009 and 2008, seems stuck at just under 100 wRC+ in the majors. Combined with his good and sometimes great defense, he appears about league average (2ish WAR). That makes him a solid, Ryan Theriot or Jason Bartlett-like contributor -- and a great platoon partner (151 wRC+ against lefties this year) -- so maybe he earns the everyday short next year.
The hope is, of course, that Rodriguez can live up to his minor league numbers next year, his age-27 season, and warrant some kind of extension (he'll be Arb 1 next year, so a trade may not be totally out of the question either).
The good news for the Rays: Unlike first base, the organizational depth at shortstop is plentiful. Tim Beckham has already made it to Triple-A and is sporting a brow-raising .288/.300/.576 slash through 60 plate appearances. He's a former top pick (#1 overall in 2008) out of high school and is less than 7 months into his drinking age.
Presumably, Beckham will start next season at Triple-A, where at age 22, he will be somewhere between 4 to 5 years younger than the his teammates and opponents. If he flourishes there -- which, for the Rays, may be just a .750 OPS -- and Rodriguez continues to be ho-hum, then I would not be surprised to see "Mr. Bust" platooning or starting full-time in blue and white.
Behind him, heating up in Double-A, the Rays have Hak-Ju Lee. Turning just 21 this November, Lee has all the makings of a shortstop who can hit, field, and run with the best. But until he reaches Durham, he's pretty far from contributing or being relevant to the present problem.
Of course, the Rays could look to fill their shortstop position from outside the team, but doing so would likely be expensive (either in money or in prospects) and could potentially create a logjam if Beckham and Lee mature more quickly than anticipated.
In short: 2011 has not been the year of the Rays shortstop, but, despite that, the organization does have a basket of talent at the position. The question is, what do they do moving forward?
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THe defense is overstated
FG takes a players overall UZR and applies it to the team page for SS. S Rod has been -.7 UZR at SS, though his overall (2B mostly) is 3.2.
Reid has been -.6.
ELliot has been solid at 3.2 in his 300+ innings.
Total UZR for SS has been 1.9.
Maybe one of the FG writers who doubles on DRB can see if this could be remedied?
It also affects offense. Zobrist’s total offensive performance applies to both 2B and RF, greatly inflating #’s.
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I don't really understand your last line or how the UZR numbers got lost in translation. Is it possible that the overall numbers use per 150? I know that wouldn't affect the sign, but it's strange to see that difference.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that's the issue as EJ has a UZR/150 of 16.5 and more innings than Roddy.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
UZR is a counting stat though. It should just be the aggregateSS UZR of all players who played SS for the Rays, right?
per 150 extrapolates an individual over a seasons workload, but for the team workload it is a seasons.
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Oh yes, I agree with you that it should just use the UZR and not /150
I’ll sum those quick and see where the Rays rank
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
As for hitting
SS PA have been divided as such:SRod 24.2%, Elliot 30.4%, and Reid 45.4%
wRC+ as follows: SRod 81, Elliot 48, Reid 22
The weighted wRC+ for the position comes out to 44.18, combined with 1.9 UZR and woof
Note: this assumes each player will hit the same playing SS as they do when they play other positions.
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Here you go

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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice work
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Honestly I could have saved some time
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011
Not sure where Brad got his numbers as they seem off a bit in most cases and a lot in the Rays case
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
He used batter dashboard view filtered by position
That was the approach I used at first too. Nice find.
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Still doesn't seem to fix the offensive comparison gap
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
How freaking good it Tulo? Best offensive bat, second best defensive player, all around good guy
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't play around with wRC+ as much because of all the moving parts, it could have to do with park effects for
a player that had more PA at home than on the road or something similar. They have a 56 which beats only the Braves. That may be why your weighted average was not lining up well.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Its doing a weighted average but of each players total PA as the denominator
It should look more at the plays % of PT at the position for the correct weightings
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok, weird that those are off that much
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoa! That's crazy! Why is it doing that?!
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
I got this straight from the Appelman:
On the team pages (non-fielding secton) fielding numbers when filtering by position are for players who have “qualified” (25% or more at a position) . In the fielding section it’s literally just SS production.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Can you check with him about offense?
Zobrist’s total production seems to count 100% towards 2B and RF
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Bref does breakout PA by the position for which they occurred.
The SS line for the year is .193/.248/.285 for a sOPS+ of 55
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Good Stuff
GREAT FIRST LINE
Shortstops are not supposed to hit like Jose Reyes. They are not really supposed to hit like Reid Brignac either.
I asked in mid-summer what was the floor for justifying a good defensive shortstop and I believe Brignac is still well below it.
Usually voting in one of these polls is quite easy, this one is taking a little more thought. Given the Rays mode of operation I don’t expect Beckham here until after the All Star break in 2012 at the earliest and I don’t like Brignac or Sean Rod getting the bulk of the time. Outside organization help is most likely going to be where the Rays go. We had this discussion in a comment of another thread but a sufficient list of names couldn’t be assembled (think it was Hahmann article).
There just aren't enough outside options that fall into the Rays plans.
Teams are not trading cheap shortstops and the market is weak. If Rafael Furcal is healthy and wants a one year deal for less than $4M then I’d consider it. If Jamey Carroll could handle the position full-time I’d consider him but I don’t think he can. I can’t think of one that is available in trade off the top of my head either. Correct me if I am wrong, though.
Nope
You and I had the same discussion in the other shortstop thread. There are options out there but they all have black eyes whether offense or defense.
John MacDonald would be a good placeholder until Beckham is ready and could probably be spelled by Srod or Brignac over the year.
Marco Scutaro could be an option if Boston elects not to pick up the 2012 option. Again, a low cost option for the Rays with limitations.
You mentioned Rafael Furcal as an option.
The Cardinals could decline arbi on Ryan Theriot making him a free agent and he could be an option.
I have to believe a vet on a 1-year deal will be brought in to settle the position while Srod sticks as the platoon option at multiple positions.
Where does this leave Brignac…he can’t be in AAA playing shortstop next year? So, does bringing in an outside option mean Brignac or Srod has to go?
No thanks on Furcal
Bat speed is gone from talking to a scout I know
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by Jason Collette on Aug 26, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't take this the wrong way, but it always peeves me when reporters or media say, "According to a scout..."
It seems out of the thousands of scouts anybody could find someone to back up their opinion. Wouldn’t it make more sense to talk to 10-15 different guys and get more of a consensus?
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
That's the problem, they all have black eyes.
If we get a guy like McDonald I would rather play Brignac. I agree a vet has to be brought in and Scutaro would be a nice addition but with a weak market it could drive the price of even the mediocre options up above what the Rays want to pay. Either way, the SS situatuon is not looking like a fun one.
Didn't see the other thread, but are there any good left handed platoon options?
I think S-Rod should get most at bats at SS against LHP, and I’m partial to still working with Brignac, but it seems like it would be easier to find an aging spare part who could still hit RHP..
Here are all the options with * next to guys with an option.
Shortstops
Yuniesky Betancourt MIL *
Ronny Cedeno PIT
Adam Everett CLE
Rafael Furcal STL
Alex Gonzalez ATL
Cesar Izturis BAL
John McDonald TOR
Augie Ojeda ARI
Jose Reyes NYM
Nick Punto STL
Edgar Renteria CIN
Jose Reyes NYM
Jimmy Rollins PHI
Ramon Santiago DET
Marco Scutaro BOS *
Jack Wilson SEA
We should get that Reyes guy
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
No. His platoon split is in the wrong direction. Doesn't work with S-Rod.
Only possibility that could work like that is Ramon Santiago, and it’s not great.
No way we can afford Reyes, and it seems to me Rollins is the only guy on that list who you can count on for 100 wRC+ against righties.
He’s coming off of a really good year, and with the market as dry as it is, I’m not sure we can afford him, either. We’re better off if we stick tight and hope for better production from SRod and Briggy next season. Spend that money on C, 1B, and the bullpen. Rotating DH with the guys we already have.
I think the team should focus it's external efforts this offseason on doing something about the other holes on this team.
There are better FAs available for bullpen help, DH and catcher (and 1B if you don’t think that Kotchman can hit close to 20 homers over the course of a full season next year). All three of the current group play passable defense so I’d rather suffer with any one of their bats than waste money on a guy who provides at best, marginal improvement.
Proof Matthan admitted he was wrong: http://www.draysbay.com/2011/3/18/2058018/ottotd-for-3-18-2011-thursday-night-t-v#61697767
I think Kotch
will break Bonds record next year, so I can’t get on board with your Kotchate
I think your Troll Fu is weak.
Proof Matthan admitted he was wrong: http://www.draysbay.com/2011/3/18/2058018/ottotd-for-3-18-2011-thursday-night-t-v#61697767
This is pretty much where I'm at, the type of player we need requires a vast investment in kapital or players, so I think that kapital or player package could be better leveraged
by filling another gap. I’d really like to see the bullpen addressed and at least one bat with thump for 1B/DH. Maybe those holes are filled internally, but I’d still like to see a professional hitter brought in and at least one arm worth a damn.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
So, I have it on good authority that the Rays and one other team...
are partnering to develop something like “Fieldfx” which will track all players’ movements on the field. It is to be used to develop more advanced ways to analyze defensive ability.
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by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Baseball is not played on a motion detection camera!
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by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it is a cool idea, but I keep picturing the players
with those damn little ping pong balls on them that you seen when they do Madden or MLB games.
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by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hence my first reply!
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by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Freezo had a great point
on this subject the other day. Not only are we getting crap at ss, but we are using up basically 3 roster spots to get crap. We need to get more versatility from our bench. I like Collette’s idea of Canzler as a bench guy.
Yes, even if its just to PH. Let him PH and then put the backup SS in
We had our weak hitting backup C PH for the SS yesterday. Ouch. Its time for an Elliot ankle “injury”. He hasn’t been worse than the others, but Reid has more upside still. Give him the PT and get a bat for the bench
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I thought it ended when Fuld hit a ball in the air on a HnR play?
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Hardly, if it's a HnR all he had to do was pull the ball on the ground, run scores, tying run at second, maybe he's safe, maybe not, but we're still alive
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Anything, anyone, anyhow that gets Reid Brignac out of a Rays uniform in 2012 is fine by me
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This SS conversation brings me back to '09. We arguably had the best
production we’ll ever see from that position, and all the analysts wanted to talk about, instead of enjoying it, was how and when it would regress
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Which it did
You knock the Bartlett pckage we got, but imagine if we traded him when the analysts suggested? You were against trading him at the time.
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Analysts love the three year metric, but complain that Zobrist doesn't get enough love. Take a look at last year and you'll see why
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Look at his 3 year #s
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
By any stretch of using stats to create, last year was dismal
and i see where Olney really took a shot at WAR and i agree
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Last year is part of his 3 year #s
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Even last year he was 8th amonst 2B in wRC+
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Keep digging my friend
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to see that "shot" because what Olney does has very little to do with the cerebral side of baseball.
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Ha, I'm sure within 140 characters he was able to have a cogent reason why WAR is not good and something is better
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
WELL IF WAR IS SO GREAT HOW COME BEN ZOBRIST ALWAYS LEADS THE LEAGUE?
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And Dave Cameron has responded really coherently to his comments every time.
Olney keeps misusing WAR and not really understanding its purpose. WAR is descriptive, not predictive. Right now Olney is really confusing the two.
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by Steve Slowinski on Aug 26, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
.25 WAR
http://www.billjamesonline.com/first_baseman_scoops/
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
4th in WAR amongst all pos players
Best wRC+ amongst 2B. 19th overall
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's a thought. If all means dry up in the search for a SS
put Zobrist there, at least till Beckham is ready. Afterall Zobrist came up billed as a slick fioelding SS, and it was his bat that kept putting him down to the minors
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Even 1 PA will greatly improve our overall SS standing at Fangraphs
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Not going to lie, Zobrist at SS is intriguing
But he already is one of the top 2B in the game, and gives us above-average production at that position, so unless we find something similar for 2B, there’s no reason to move him to upgrade SS only to downgrade 2B.
If we can trade a pitcher for Rangers Ian Kinsler, then maybe we have that conversation. Otherwise, it’s Brignac and S-Rod SS platoon until Beckham is ready for the show.
by raysfaninminnesota on Aug 26, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I doubt that S-Rod @ SS would really improve the team much
Though he hits LHP, his numbers vs RHP are so bad, it’s at best a marginal increase over Brignac. wOBA of .227 for S-Rod to .202 for Brignac.
I don’t see there being enough PA vs LHP to really help.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
It helps
Reid is hopeless vs LHP. SRod is good enough with the bat to pass at any position vs LHP. Huge difference. Vs RHP not at all
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the 150PA vs LHP is good stuff
But those 450+PA vs RHP is really depressing to watch.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Aug 26, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep, he has no business at SS vs RHP with his glove
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by FreeZorilla on Aug 26, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Please pass the Vodka for every PA
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Aug 26, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised that the highest vote total right now is for Bex.
Not even close to ready for MLB pitching. But, I guess it is easy to vote for the unproven when you see Brignac fail every time at the plate and S-Rod flail against all RHP.
Backup QB syndrome
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a quantitative way to make a case for a SS and his UZR with a superior glove at 1B v apoor defensive first baseman?
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Oh, you mean like: Can we quantitatively observe the effect of having Kotchman at first vs. a ham sandwich?
Yeah, there ought to be a way. Logically, I can think of a way, but logistically, I’m not sure I can massage the data correctly. You’d want to basically split a SS’s UZR data according to who’s playing first — that’s where a database fiend would come in.
I’m not sure how to do such a thing.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Moreover, UZR may not even break down to such a specific split.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Just read Bill James's scooping database that says he's the second best scooper in MLB and that's still only worth 2 runs or about .25 WAR
http://www.billjamesonline.com/first_baseman_scoops/
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
No one voted for Elliot Johnson?
But seriously, isn’t the answer going to be give the Seid Rodignac platoon a second shot. If it fails, then call up Beckham? There are so few legitimate shortstops that I doubt the Rays fork over several million for someone who isn’t that great of a bet to be an upgrade like Furcal.
If Seid Rodignac is indeed the most reasonable option, then I wouldn't call up Bex until he's surely ready.
The potential gains of promoting an un-ready Bex would be like 0.5 a win amortized over the remaining portion of the season.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Plus we wouldn't hold his rights until his 40th b-day
#$tusbottomline
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by Sandy Kazmir on Aug 26, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the Rays would consider Beckham before the all star break
So that gives Rodnignac a chance to prove it’s not a complete hole and if he doesn’t Beckham comes up. How much longer does he need in AAA realistically?
Are we completely sure that Zobrist is done as a SS in the majors
because I would like to see what we could do at the 2B position with Zoby playing SS everyday. Rodriguez is a very good defender at 2B but has trouble with some throws at SS it seems. So maybe we can try the Rodriguez/Brignac platoon but split over the 2 positions like the Joyce/Rodriguez platoon was supposed to work this year. I don’t like the idea of calling up Beckham too soon because he is still very young and could use an entire season in AAA. It is too bad we are going so slow with Bortnick or DD or maybe one of those guys could help at some point. Figuroa should be in AAA next year too so he could be a filler if needed, although he is probably not much more than another Elliot Johnson.
I'm all for trying Zobrist at SS again.
The problem is it just creates a vacuum at second base.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Right, without a 2B alternative its fruitless
Keep the D where its highly effective. Zo would likely give up all the positional adjustment and then some in terms of UZR. Without a big bat at 2B, there is no point.
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wouldn't finding a fix at 2B be easier than finding one at SS
If Zobrist is such a good 2B and RF, I have a hard time believing he wouldn’t be very good at SS. He has range and a strong arm. I wouldn’t imagine there would be any drop off from Reid defensively
here is a list I found of 2B free agents, I wonder how much Infante will cost this off-season.
Second Basemen
Clint Barmes HOU
Willie Bloomquist ARI *
Orlando Cabrera CLE
Robinson Cano NYY *
Jamey Carroll LAD
Luis Castillo NYM
Alex Cora WAS
Craig Counsell MIL
Mark Ellis OAK
Carlos Guillen DET
Jerry Hairston Jr. WAS
Aaron Hill TOR *
Omar Infante FLA
Joe Inglett HOU
Kelly Johnson ARI
Adam Kennedy SEA
Felipe Lopez TB
Jose Lopez FLA
Aaron Miles LAD
Brandon Phillips CIN
We've seen Zobrist play SS, it wasn't pretty
He’s so good at 2B. Its a huge sacrifice. WIth a big bat at 2B its possible. I just don’t see the Rays acquiring one. Stopgap at SS until Bex is ready or Briggy breaks thru.
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