There's a big CJ going on for Kotch's incredible season so far. I love seeing the FO outfox the rest of baseball as much as anyone, but I have a hard time believing that this new Kotch will last. So let's take a look on what he's done, and what we think he'll do going forward with the oft-mentioned BABIp to help.
Here's Kotch's 2009-2011, this year, and career numbers:
Split |
G |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
2009-2011 |
350 |
1263 |
309 |
23 |
.271 |
.336 |
.394 |
.730 |
0.293 |
0.325 |
2011 |
99 |
375 |
116 |
7 |
.341 |
.400 |
.479 |
.879 |
0.373 |
0.392 |
Career |
744 |
2703 |
656 |
56 |
.270 |
.335 |
.404 |
.739 |
0.284 |
0.331 |
His 2009-2011 numbers look a lot like his career numbers as his awful 2009-2010 weight-out his phenomenal 2011. After the jump, we'll do an exercise where we assume different BABIPs to see what his line and value would be. Keep in mind Kotch's career BABIP is .285, so we'd expect a regression toward that (maybe a bit higher since this year is weighed more heavily).
We'll be turning singles in to outs or outs in to singles to determine what Kotch's line would look like on a 150 game total. This way he keeps all his XBH (even though he would likely lose lucky 2Bs or gain lucky 2Bs IRL) to keep the Iso the same. His BB% will stay the same too. Then we'll show what his wOBA would be with this BABIP for each profile (2009-2011, 2011 itself, and career), and what his WAR would be as a +5 fielder at first in a low-scoring .320 wOBA league (lower than this year I believe).
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
102 |
10 |
.209 |
.279 |
.332 |
.611 |
.220 |
.273 |
-23.37 |
-1.09 |
2011 |
568 |
108 |
11 |
.210 |
.281 |
.348 |
.629 |
.220 |
.281 |
-20.55 |
-0.80 |
Career |
545 |
105 |
11 |
.215 |
.285 |
.348 |
.634 |
.220 |
.284 |
-18.25 |
-0.58 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
110 |
10 |
.226 |
.295 |
.349 |
.643 |
.240 |
.287 |
-16.81 |
-0.43 |
2011 |
568 |
117 |
11 |
.226 |
.296 |
.365 |
.661 |
.240 |
.296 |
-13.59 |
-0.11 |
Career |
545 |
114 |
11 |
.232 |
.301 |
.366 |
.667 |
.240 |
.299 |
-11.26 |
0.12 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
119 |
10 |
.243 |
.310 |
.366 |
.676 |
.260 |
.302 |
-9.89 |
0.26 |
2011 |
568 |
126 |
11 |
.244 |
.312 |
.382 |
.694 |
.260 |
.310 |
-6.26 |
0.62 |
Career |
545 |
122 |
11 |
.249 |
.316 |
.383 |
.699 |
.260 |
.313 |
-4.59 |
0.79 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
127 |
10 |
.260 |
.325 |
.383 |
.708 |
.280 |
.316 |
-3.33 |
0.92 |
2011 |
568 |
135 |
11 |
.261 |
.327 |
.399 |
.727 |
.280 |
.325 |
0.83 |
1.33 |
Career |
545 |
131 |
11 |
.267 |
.332 |
.401 |
.733 |
.280 |
.328 |
2.40 |
1.49 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
136 |
10 |
.278 |
.341 |
.417 |
.758 |
.300 |
.331 |
3.64 |
1.61 |
2011 |
568 |
143 |
11 |
.278 |
.343 |
.434 |
.777 |
.300 |
.339 |
7.81 |
2.03 |
Career |
545 |
139 |
11 |
.284 |
.348 |
.436 |
.783 |
.300 |
.342 |
9.13 |
2.16 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
144 |
10 |
.294 |
.356 |
.417 |
.773 |
.320 |
.345 |
10.15 |
2.26 |
2011 |
568 |
152 |
11 |
.296 |
.359 |
.434 |
.792 |
.320 |
.354 |
15.12 |
2.76 |
Career |
545 |
148 |
11 |
.302 |
.364 |
.436 |
.799 |
.320 |
.357 |
16.21 |
2.87 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
152 |
10 |
.312 |
.372 |
.435 |
.807 |
.340 |
.359 |
17.06 |
2.96 |
2011 |
568 |
161 |
11 |
.313 |
.374 |
.451 |
.825 |
.340 |
.368 |
22.21 |
3.47 |
Career |
545 |
156 |
11 |
.319 |
.379 |
.453 |
.832 |
.340 |
.372 |
23.04 |
3.55 |
Split |
PA |
H |
HR |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BABIP |
wOBA |
wRAA |
WAR |
2009-2011 |
541 |
160 |
10 |
.328 |
.387 |
.451 |
.838 |
.360 |
.373 |
23.63 |
3.61 |
2011 |
568 |
170 |
11 |
.329 |
.389 |
.468 |
.857 |
.360 |
.382 |
29.17 |
4.17 |
Career |
545 |
165 |
11 |
.336 |
.394 |
.470 |
.864 |
.360 |
.386 |
29.71 |
4.22 |
So even if we assume that Kotch has increased his natural BABIP skill, he'd be about an average player at a .300 BABIP in an incredibly suppressed offensive environment. If some team is willing to pay him as a 3 win player, I'd be shocked if it ended up being a positive outcome.