FanPost

Why Kotchman Will Be a Bad Signing


There's a big CJ going on for Kotch's incredible season so far. I love seeing the FO outfox the rest of baseball as much as anyone, but I have a hard time believing that this new Kotch will last. So let's take a look on what he's done, and what we think he'll do going forward with the oft-mentioned BABIp to help.

Here's Kotch's 2009-2011, this year, and career numbers:

Split

G

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

2009-2011

350

1263

309

23

.271

.336

.394

.730

0.293

0.325

2011

99

375

116

7

.341

.400

.479

.879

0.373

0.392

Career

744

2703

656

56

.270

.335

.404

.739

0.284

0.331

His 2009-2011 numbers look a lot like his career numbers as his awful 2009-2010 weight-out his phenomenal 2011. After the jump, we'll do an exercise where we assume different BABIPs to see what his line and value would be. Keep in mind Kotch's career BABIP is .285, so we'd expect a regression toward that (maybe a bit higher since this year is weighed more heavily).

We'll be turning singles in to outs or outs in to singles to determine what Kotch's line would look like on a 150 game total. This way he keeps all his XBH (even though he would likely lose lucky 2Bs or gain lucky 2Bs IRL) to keep the Iso the same. His BB% will stay the same too. Then we'll show what his wOBA would be with this BABIP for each profile (2009-2011, 2011 itself, and career), and what his WAR would be as a +5 fielder at first in a low-scoring .320 wOBA league (lower than this year I believe). 

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

102

10

.209

.279

.332

.611

.220

.273

-23.37

-1.09

2011

568

108

11

.210

.281

.348

.629

.220

.281

-20.55

-0.80

Career

545

105

11

.215

.285

.348

.634

.220

.284

-18.25

-0.58

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

110

10

.226

.295

.349

.643

.240

.287

-16.81

-0.43

2011

568

117

11

.226

.296

.365

.661

.240

.296

-13.59

-0.11

Career

545

114

11

.232

.301

.366

.667

.240

.299

-11.26

0.12

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

119

10

.243

.310

.366

.676

.260

.302

-9.89

0.26

2011

568

126

11

.244

.312

.382

.694

.260

.310

-6.26

0.62

Career

545

122

11

.249

.316

.383

.699

.260

.313

-4.59

0.79

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

127

10

.260

.325

.383

.708

.280

.316

-3.33

0.92

2011

568

135

11

.261

.327

.399

.727

.280

.325

0.83

1.33

Career

545

131

11

.267

.332

.401

.733

.280

.328

2.40

1.49

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

136

10

.278

.341

.417

.758

.300

.331

3.64

1.61

2011

568

143

11

.278

.343

.434

.777

.300

.339

7.81

2.03

Career

545

139

11

.284

.348

.436

.783

.300

.342

9.13

2.16

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

144

10

.294

.356

.417

.773

.320

.345

10.15

2.26

2011

568

152

11

.296

.359

.434

.792

.320

.354

15.12

2.76

Career

545

148

11

.302

.364

.436

.799

.320

.357

16.21

2.87

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

152

10

.312

.372

.435

.807

.340

.359

17.06

2.96

2011

568

161

11

.313

.374

.451

.825

.340

.368

22.21

3.47

Career

545

156

11

.319

.379

.453

.832

.340

.372

23.04

3.55

Split

PA

H

HR

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

BABIP

wOBA

wRAA

WAR

2009-2011

541

160

10

.328

.387

.451

.838

.360

.373

23.63

3.61

2011

568

170

11

.329

.389

.468

.857

.360

.382

29.17

4.17

Career

545

165

11

.336

.394

.470

.864

.360

.386

29.71

4.22

So even if we assume that Kotch has increased his natural BABIP skill, he'd be about an average player at a .300 BABIP in an incredibly suppressed offensive environment. If some team is willing to pay him as a 3 win player, I'd be shocked if it ended up being a positive outcome.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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