Where Does Sam Fuld Fit in 2012?
Super Sam Fuld captured the heart of Rays fan everywhere back in early April. On April 6th he pulled a Henry Rowengartner and nabbed J.J. Hardy at the plate from the left field bleachers. The next night he stole three bases. April 9th he makes what might be the catch of the year. Then on the 11th, April Fuld's Day as it will forever be remembered, he decided hitting for the cycle was for mere mortals and made yet another amazing catch. The Legend of Sam Fuld was in full force.
On April 27th Super Sam was hitting a robust .350/.411/.525 but since that day he has hit .202/.276/.305 thanks in large part to a May that saw him hit .157/.176/.258. His star had dimmed but not before using his legendary status to help promote diabetes awareness.
So, where does this fan favorite, cape wearing, autograph signing, diabetes awareness promoting legend fit in the Rays 2012 plans? Some would suggest as the 4th outfielder, some the 5th outfielder, but I suggest an even bigger role for this man who became a legend.
This next part is hard to determine because I have no idea what the Rays plans are for free agency, for B.J. Upton, or for trades, and those are all factors in how a player on the current roster will be used. But if we see the Rays continue to work on a minimal budget I think it is safe to assume B.J. Upton will be traded and the Rays will make splashes in the kiddie pool of free agency. Besides, left field is not high priority for this team that has bigger holes.
Fuld has value, do not let his overall line of .240/.312/.362 let you think otherwise. He has hit right-handers to a near league-average tune with a wRC+ of 98 and he had months of wRC+ of 127, 124, and 170 this season. His dismal wRC+ of 10 in May is what has killed his overall line. The only month missing is when he had a wRC+ of 77 which is expected of most hitters at least once in a season.
Maddon found out that Fuld has limitations when he played him everyday in April and May. Maddon quickly changed his tune and played him accordingly. Since Fuld's dismal May he has hit .263/.365/.381 and that includes a 12.9% walk rate. This is closer to the Sam Fuld I think we can expect in 2012. Oh, and he is a great base runner, proven by his +1.6 Bsr. Oh, and his BABIP of .276 is low for a guy with 19% line-drives hit.
Fuld carries most of his value on defense and carries a UZR of 10.7 in corner outfield spots. If you are a believer in WAR, either Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, you should know that Fuld has been worth 1.8 fWAR and 1.6 rWAR while Upton has been worth 2.0 fWAR and 2.0 rWAR. Yes, Upton is the better player, but at the cost of $8M compared to $450K the value leans towards Fuld.
Fuld cannot play every day. He cannot hit lefties and his diabetes could hold him back from everyday play due to fatigue. But if the Rays do trade Upton and prefer not to spend money on a left fielder, assuming Desmond Jennings takes over center field, then it would be wise to platoon Fuld with Brandon Guyer and give Fuld 450 plate appearances and close to 1000 innings in the outfield.
These are numbers taken from Fuld's first full year in the Majors so there is room for error here, just look at John Jaso if you need an example. But Fuld has a skill set that adds value if used correctly and I think Maddon has figured out when to shoot his Sam Fuld signal into the Gotham sky. If the Rays go with Fuld in a platoon I would dare say Fuld could be a +3 fWAR player.
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I dont really get all the Fuld negativity
I think he is a legit option as a 4th outfielder for next year. Sure he is never going to be a super star hitter but his defensive (american spelling for ya) and baserunning abilities make him an assest of the bench.
I agree with you but I think he has more value than just a bench guy.
He had one terrible month that has killed his overall line. I’d like to see him in a LF platoon with a RH bat like Guyer next year.
terrible month or great month
It all counts…
I agree he is a very useful player to have I’m not sure we should be giving him up to 80% playing time next year.
How do Guyers splits look?
by OneTonneBaby on Sep 2, 2011 11:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I suggest 65-70% in the comment below. Fuld has fatugue issues and probably cannot play 4 games in a row.
Guyer hit .346/.418/.561 against LHP and .299/.371/.505 against RHP.
sorry didn't see your post
Pretty big split but still a good rhp line.
by OneTonneBaby on Sep 2, 2011 11:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haha, this is kind of funny looking back at my projections for him that used heavy regression
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/5/6/2157102/what-to-expect-from-brandon-guyer
Pretty awesome that I pegged him and Fuld in a platoon for 2011 back in early May. Would have liked to have seen more of it. I’m going to update these numbers and add some regression in to see what we’re looking at.
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
If they can pull it off, I'd love to see a Fuld/Guyer platoon in LF next year
assuming we trade Beej, move Deezy to center and platoon Joyce and Zo in RF. Spend any money and focus trades on getting a 1B or a SS. This team isn’t very many pieces away from being a 95 win squad
In this scenario, does Fuld really get 85% of the playing time, or would Guyer siphon away a good chunk of it?
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
My plan would be to give Fuld 65-70% of the LF plate appearances, roughly 450.
Give Guyer the rest and rotate Guyer in for rest days for Deezy, Joyce, and whomever they have at DH. I’d like to get Guyer 350 PAs.
Who platoons with Joyce then?
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
Yeah I don't want to see him against lefties, for every Granderson that figures it out there's a hundred other guys
That would be interesting, if you’d still like to use the DH role as a place to rest a guy then it would require one bat that handles both lefties and righties ok that you can stash in a corner on occasion. I say this because if you’re platooning both corner outfield spots then you’re not really going to want to use the sitting guy in that DH role. So you either have Joyce, Fuld, catcher, +1 on the bench, or Guyer, Roddy, catcher, +1. I’d be interested in a guy like Canzler filling that role if the team feels he’s ready. It might look something like this:
V. LHP
C Shoppach
1B Kotchman
2B Rodriguez
3B Longoria
SS Brignac
LF Guyer
CF Jennings
RF Zobrist
DH Canzler
Bench Fuld
Bench Joyce
Bench Lobaton
Bench Damon
V. RHP
C Lobaton
1B Kotchman
2B Zobrist
3B Longoria
SS Brignac
LF Fuld
CF Jennings
RF Joyce
DH Damon
Bench Guyer
Bench Rodriguez
Bench Shoppach
Bench Canzler
I’d rather have a guy that can fake it at SS and hits lefties pretty well than Damon, but don’t want to include too much hypothetical. Hell, Yuni Betancourt has a lifetime wOBA of .316 against lefties. I know he’s a hack with the glove, but you can always pull him in late innings and he wouldn’t be seeing the lion’s share of the platoon. On a one year deal as a bridge to Beckham it would be pretty awesome to see two of the worst SSs in the Majors in the same platoon. I don’t see how it could be much worse than what we’ve gotten from the position this year.
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
That could work.
I agree with Canzler being that guy to get the DH slot against LHP.
And the Yuni/Briggy platoon is too funny! I think I’d rather have Adam Everett than Yuni. I just have this hate thing with Yuni. Still like the idea of Jamey Carroll in a reserve role to play all over.
Yuni is trash, but at least he can hit lefties
If it costs us 1M to have a guy that never gets hurt, can at least fake SS for the most part, and can hit lefties off the bench and when he gets starts then I don’t mind it so much. Him and Brignac are mirror type players which, to me, make the best platoons. They can cover each other’s shortfalls and I don’t think the market will be very strong for a player that is universally maligned. The Rays aren’t afraid to make that kind of move, though they rarely if ever will take on such a butcher in the field. Especially at SS. It’s either that or finding somebody for 2B that can cover when Zobrist goes to the OF and have Roddy move over to SS.
Maybe Jose Lopez is that guy, but this is what we’re talking about as far as the last spot. Either way, I think I’d rather have a middle infielder in that spot than someone like Damon that can really only hit and not even that well.
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with adding a 2B and moving S-Rod over to SS.
Which is why I like Jamey Carroll a lot. Plus his .362 OBP the past 4 sesons helps.
The only number I'm looking at with him is 37
As in revolutions around the sun for that grizzly old bastard
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok this is really loosey goosey, but using Guyer's current MiLB historical L/R splits and using the BPro forecast of .307 OBP and .418 SLG that they have for this year, I get an expected wOBA of .324
Bringing all of this together we would expect Guyer to OBP/SLG/wOBA:
vRHP
.300/.406/.319
vLHP
.324/.448/.336
That’s a pretty good player against lefties and maybe league average against righties
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
At the risk of summoning Bloody SternFan,
why sit Damon v LHP instead of Kotchman?
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Because Damon shouldn't be on the team next year
His ceiling next year is a league average batter that can’t wear a glove anywhere. Kotchman is probably that same league average batter, but at least he can play some marvelous defense.
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
Yeah, I agree on that point. I was just intrigued that you slotted Canzler in for Damon instead of Kotch.
Ultimately, it would be great to have a true slugger at DH who can hit both hands, though.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum
Well we can always spend 12M a year on David Ortiz and another 15M a year could get us Jose Reyes, problems solved
Instead we have to “do it another way” which is just short hand for taking it in the ass.
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
For all the hate Joyce gets agaisnt lefties, his wOBA this year against them is virtually the same as the great Crawford's last year.
What gives? One gets 100 million, the other is considered a platoon player?
True, but is defense really the huge discrepency?
Why don’t team get a lefty specialist with good defense to play for Crawford agaisnt lefties? Do you see where I am going with this?
Why waste a roster spot to platoon a guy for a few PAs and play slightly worse than Crawford?
Not saying player x is not good but Crawford is arguably one of the two best defensive LFers in the game. You substitute worse defense for 3 PAs against a LH starter. Bat Crawford lower and keep his superb defense in the game. If Joyce had that superb defense then I would say do the same.
A bit worse of a defender (but still above average) with a plus bat agaisnt lefties is definetely worth the roster spot.
If the player could get a .340 or higher wOBA against lefties, I don’t see why not. Crawford is pretty bad against lefties.
You're missing the very good argument presented against you and just plowing forward with your own. If Joyce was on the level of a +15 or greater in RF then you'd never hear a peep about platooning him.
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 2, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I know and understand that arguement.
However, so many of these premium players really should be platooned. That is my arguement.
Crawford should have been playing every day. I jsut never heard of his struggles against lefties.
Why the heck is Johnny Damon playing?
Attendance clause
Could you imagine how many empty seats there would be if John Damon hadn’t signed on to replace B.J. Upton as the Rays highest paid player?
If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.
Platooning Fuld and Guyer makes little sense
While I haven’t been able to find minor leagues splits for 2011, Guyer hit right-handers better, and usually substantially better, than he hit left-handers, for every year but 2010, when he hit lefties slightly better.
Moreover, looking at his stats the last two years I would expect Guyer to hit right-handers much better than Fuld has or will.
The numbers analysis above is dubious: There’s no statistic reason to toss out his worst month when the gap between it and a league-average hitter is barely more than gap between the average and his best month.
A corner outfielder with no power and an OBP dragged down by a low batting average is simply not a starter on a quality team, or if he is, that team creates an offensive obstacle.
Guyer has shown a rapid development the past two years of turning raw tools into skills. The Rays would be wise to give him the first shot of winning the LF job out-right and should start with an extended trial this month.
Fuld is a valuable 4th outfielder because of his defense and speed. He’s also a great value. But let’s not confuse value with production.
Fuld On Bench
He is a 4th/5th OFer who only occasionally starts,but can be an outstanding defensive replacement.

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