September Playoff Odds: Open Thread

September is the time when some teams start to think about their playoff rotation, resting players, and first round roster decisions. Other teams are beginning to face the realization that their best efforts weren't enough to reach the promise land. Some teams have known since the All-Star break that their was to be a magical run in to complete the season. The question this September is what teams really have a chance at the "playoffs". 

According to the only American League teams that have a shot at the Wild Card are the Yankees and the Red Sox and in the National League it would appear that the wild card will go to either Phillies or Braves. 

The purpose of this post is to memorialize where teams are as the first full slate of baseball in September is played and to provide an opportunity for the community to comment on the individual races outside that of the American League East.


The second place team in the AL East will once again be the wild card winner in the American League. Barring a major collapse by either the Yankees or the Red Sox the two teams will battle down the stretch for the best record in the American League and the home field advantage. The Rays aren't given much of a chance at the AL East title (0.1%) or the wild card (0.9%). So, the Rays have around a 1 in 100 chance of making the you're saying there's a chance.



If you open the newspaper or log on to a website and inspect the standings it will appear that a 3 team race with the Detroit Tigers leading the White Sox and Indians by 5.5 games. In reality, the Tigers and White Sox will battle to the end while the injured Indians fade into the role of the spoiler. reflects this reality as they place the odds fort the  Tigers at 80.7%, the White Sox at 12%, and the Indians at 7.3%.

AL West

The AL West title will be a two team race thorough the month of September between the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers with the Rangers holding a 3.5 game lead.  The Rangers are currently given a 85.7% chance for the division while the Angels are given a 15.7% chance at the divison.

NL East

The NL East, much like the AL East will most likely put two teams into the playoffs. The Phillies, who currently lead the Braves by 7.5 games, are given the best chance at the division at 98.6% and a 1.4% chance at the wild card while the Atlanta Braves are given a 1.4% chance at the division and a 98.6%.

NL Central

The Brewers are firmly ahead in the NL Central and are given a 97.4% chance at winning the division and the St. Louis Cardinals who are 7.5 games behind the Brewers are given a 2.6% chance at winning the division and a 1.7% chance at winning the wild card.

NL West

The Arizona Diamondbacks have sprinted ahead of the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants and currently hold a 6 game lead. Coolstandings gives the Diamondbacks a 95.1% chance at the division while the Giants hopes of returning to the post-season are bleak at only 4.5%.


This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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