based on 9/4 playoff probabilities:

Red Sox 0.3% chance of not making the playoffs; Rays 0.3% of making the playoffs

and the situations of game 162 – both teams down to their final strikes – estimated 2% chance of the Red Sox losing and the Rays winning…

3/1000 × 3/1000 × 2/100 × 2/100 = 1 in 277,777,778. So yeah, call that 278 million.

The only qualm I have is considering the playoff chances totally independent from each other. The 2 teams played mostly the same teams, and 7 games against each other. If you take out 1 of the 0.3% chances to make/miss the playoffs, the number is slightly under 1 in a million.

Still a fantastic event – 1 million, 280 million. With odds like that what’s really the difference? ;-)