ALDS Rays-Rangers: Game One Preview

by Steve Slowinski on Sep 30, 2011 12:07 PM EDT in Features & Analysis

As I said in my FanGraphs preview today, while this is the same matchup from last season's ALDS, the roles of the two clubs have been reversed. The Rays entered the postseason as the favorites in this series, winning 96 games and taking the AL East, and their lineup and rotation was as stacked as its been the past few seasons. The Rangers, on the other hand, had only won 90 games and were in the postseason for the first time since the '90s.

This season, it's the Rays who enter the series as the underdogs. They snuck into the playoffs at the last minute, and they're quantitatively weaker than the Rangers in almost every area:

Personally, I think the Rays have a slight advantage in starting pitching, simply because the top of the Rays' rotation is so excellent and Matt Moore is a big unknown for the Rangers. But the Rangers have a definite advantage with their dominant bullpen (as Tommy highlighted this morning), and their offense is among the best in the majors. C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison are all above-average starters, so even though they don't have Cliff Lee, this is going to be a hard team to beat.

This is probably stating the obvious, but this series is really going to come down to if the Rays' offense can score runs early against the Rangers' starters, and if the Rays' starters can shut down the Rangers' offense effectively.

The Rays have relished their role as the underdog this season. Who's to say they can't keep the magic rolling along? They are still a strong team, and since anything can happen in a short series, there are plenty of plausible scenarios where the Rays come out ahead. If Matt Moore can come up big today against the Rangers, that'd be one huge step forward.

Pitching Matchup: C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Moore
Game Time: 5:07pm EST
Coverage: TBS, WDAE 620

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ESPN 1040 is also covering the game too I believe with the national broadcasters

by Dbullsfan on Sep 30, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

that is correct

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Sep 30, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

TWO REALLY NICE THINGS:

1) Our pitching is not defensive independent — as in, our defense is amazing. Our UZR is ridiculous .

2) Because of the vastly different home parks, wOBA makes the Rangers offense look unfairly better than the Rays offense.

Consider wRC+, wherein the Rays are second in the league with 103 wRC+ and the Ranger are second with 113. A 28 point difference in wOBA makes the Rays look like a Triple-A team in comparison, but there’s a lot of Trop in that number.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

How big a sample size you using for UZR?

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by SRQman on Sep 30, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just referring to what Steve had up there.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

It's one year. That's a good enough sample size right?

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by SRQman on Sep 30, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.

Unless you’re suggesting the Rays or a poor defensive team.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I was thinking individually. Sorry should have clarified.

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by SRQman on Sep 30, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

for th entire team. not an individual.

by rglass44 on Sep 30, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

When you're comibining players, it in fact does not lower the magnitude of uncertainty on UZR

by benderbrodriguez on Sep 30, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

*combining

by benderbrodriguez on Sep 30, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

shouldn't you be using uzr/150?

by shoe gays on Sep 30, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Well given that this is the team's total over 162 games

It’ll be near identical to UZR/150

by benderbrodriguez on Sep 30, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

huh? why not?

by rglass44 on Sep 30, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure how math fluent you are, but assuming I haven't completely forgotten stats

Let’s say that a measure like UZR has an uncertainty of 10 over the course of 150 games (if you want the 95% confidence interval or whatever) for an individual player, i.e., if BJ’s UZR is 3 for the season then you can effectively be 95% sure that it falls somewhere between -7 and 13.
If you increase the sample size of this individual measure by doubling the number of games, random variation becomes less significant because of overall regression, and so the uncertainty for the same confidence interval would decrease to a value of roughly 7.
When you find the team’s UZR as a forecasting tool, however, you’re adding together several different numbers, each with their own independent uncertainties.
Although the uncertainties don’t increase as quickly as if you were to just plain add them up, it still does increase (it’s roughly a root sum I think).

In simpler words, if you have more data on BJ Upton by increasing the number of games you’re measuring, your uncertainty decreases because his second 150 games tell you something about his first 150 games, since both theoretically should have the same “true” measure (they’re dependent on each other).
When you combine data by adding Zobrist and BJ’s UZR, you’re not decreasing the uncertainty, because their performances are completely independent, so instead of being slightly more sure of one measurement, you’re adding two measurements that you’re equally unsure about.

Is this making any sense?

by benderbrodriguez on Sep 30, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

We don't need a 95% confidence interval.

That UZR number correlates directly with literally every other stat in the league — the Rays are the best defenders in the AL, and by a wide margin.

People keep getting hung up about the uncertainty — but the uncertainty is uncertain. The simple fact is that single season UZR really needs to conflict with the scouting reports and the sister statistics before we start tossing it in the garbage.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

so you're also saying the yankees and red sox offense "look unfairly better"

than the rays’ offense?

by shoe gays on Sep 30, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Offensive stats are different than UZR

Put a ton more faith in those.

I do this for free.
#FREESANDY

by SRQman on Sep 30, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

oof.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Sep 30, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Just re-watched the bottom of the 9th in the O's-Sox game.

Gives me goosebumps at the end when news breaks about the Longo home run and the crowd roars and dances like they just clinched.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 12:54 PM EDT reply actions

After the bottom of the 9th you mean?

We won it after that game finished

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Sep 30, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I watched the whole bottom of the 9th and then afterwards.

The Red Sox MLB.tv broadcast cuts off just before the Rays win it, while the MASN broadcast catches a few glorious seconds as the crowd bursts into jubilation.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I just got off a train at London Liverpool st

Only to see a woman in a red sox t shirt getting on. As you can imagine with a grin plastered across my face I coughed ‘rays’ only to get an angry devil eyed look back

by OneTonneBaby on Sep 30, 2011 1:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Trolling abroad.

I like it.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

that chance doesn't come along every day here

by OneTonneBaby on Sep 30, 2011 1:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Aren't you a little sad that you've invariably ruined your chances with the

only woman in Great Britain who watches baseball?

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahaha

Great point. The face on it wasn’t worth the hassle.

by OneTonneBaby on Sep 30, 2011 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And the shirt kind acted as a proper IQ test, I imagine.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

early in the count

Just thinking that it would be a good idea for Rays hitters to jump on C.J. Wilson early in the count early in the game. He’ll be trying to figure out the ump’s strike zone, and maybe Jennings and Upton will get some easier pitches to hit. He’s got pretty good control so working the count probably won’t help us too much and it’s not like we should be dying to get to their bullpen. As said, we need to jump out to an early lead.

On the Sox, ESPN is saying that Francona is out.

by learnedglove on Sep 30, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

Either swing early, or pray he throws a ball.

Split             PA HR   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS BAbip tOPS+
Batter Ahead    1172 24 .258 .447 .411  .858  .278   157
Pitcher Ahead    884 12 .194 .207 .283  .490  .285    46
Even Count       941 17 .252 .268 .357  .624  .303    86
First Pitch      264  6 .336 .351 .449  .801  .314   138
1-0 Count        204 10 .360 .358 .619  .977  .321   189
2-0 Count        107  1 .248 .255 .362  .617  .240    83
3-0 Count         57  0 .333 .965 .333 1.298  .333   297
0-1 Count        251  6 .303 .316 .439  .755  .285   124
1-1 Count        251  9 .340 .357 .552  .909  .313   169
2-1 Count        166  6 .259 .259 .458  .717  .231   112
3-1 Count        167  4 .338 .719 .549 1.268  .299   282
0-2 Count        214  2 .144 .164 .212  .375  .269    12
1-2 Count        419  4 .155 .165 .228  .392  .294    17
2-2 Count        426  2 .151 .164 .189  .353  .280     5
Full Count       471  3 .181 .435 .246  .681  .286   106

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/30/2011.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

get out of my head!

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Sep 30, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Rangers lineup

Ian Kinsler — 2B

Elvis Andrus — SS

Josh Hamilton — CF

Michael Young — 1B

Adrian Beltre — 3B

Mike Napoli — C

Nelson Cruz — RF

Yorvit Torrealba — DH

Craig Gentry — LF

Do not ask me to explain Yorvit at DH and Napoli at C; I assume that’s a typo but no one has corrected it. Gentry has a 730 OPS vs. righties; he’s basically their Justin Ruggiano. I guess the thought here is that defense doesn’t matter if the Rays can’t put the ball in play.

by AndrewTorrez on Sep 30, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah. That's a strange one.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Really gotta keep those first two off the bases as they can really wreck havoc on a pitcher already having to face some of the toughest bats in the game

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 30, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

on the plus side

maybe Moore doesn’t know that Adrian Beltre and his ridiculous swing always owns this team?

by AndrewTorrez on Sep 30, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

If I see him kneel down and hit a dinger this series, I'm just gonna snap

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 30, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

CJ

The Rays looked pretty terrible against Wilson in his last two starts against them. Have they always struggled against him?

by Charles Frenkel on Sep 30, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

Yes

He gets a lot of natural movement on his pitches and pitches to the outer corners while working up and down. If you try to work a count against him, it works against you.

batter ahead: .258/.447/.411
pitcher ahead: .194/.207/.283
even count: .252/.268/.357

I know the Rays like to work counts, but I wouldn’t mind death by singles tonight and if Napoli is truly catching, run like f’n hell.

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Sep 30, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

then again

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/vRnTJ — surprised at Napoli’s numbers as he’s visually always looked worse

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Sep 30, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

36% AND fewer attempts/inning than Yorvit?

I would not have thought that was possible. Wow. Curse you, facts!

by AndrewTorrez on Sep 30, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

Career 4-0, 2.25 ERA, 42 K in 40 IP.

No time to change that around like the present, though.

by AndrewTorrez on Sep 30, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Whatever. Season is over.

Do you realize Betty White is a milf for me? Ouch

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 3, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

by wtbudlight on Sep 30, 2011 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

Rodriguez hitting leadoff tonight...Jennings moving down the lineup

Works for me

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Sep 30, 2011 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

what's the lineup?

by AndrewTorrez on Sep 30, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Better yet, who's the ump?

I know who I’m not hoping for.

I made this GIF in last year’s ALDS. It’s literally title JerryMealsDIE.gif.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

threats of violence have no place on the front page

You think this is OTM?

Buy My Book That Has Nothing To Do With Baseball

by nomoredevil on Sep 30, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Post on site

I'm not a fanboy, I'm a _______

by Jason Collette on Sep 30, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

DaveH and Woodrum are the exact same person.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Sep 30, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

...(They're on to me!)...

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

My boy Kerwin Danley.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Sep 30, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't recall him very much.

This is a good sign.

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Look up a picture of him

he’s awful

I do this for free.
#FREESANDY

by SRQman on Sep 30, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Ohhh...

A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Sep 30, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, google image search him. He's really bad. You'll probably recognize him.

Top 5 (in a bad way) for me.

Hopefully won’t have certain… propensity…. to make calls against Bossman though.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Sep 30, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and I don't know that he is behind the plate today.

He is just on this crew.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Sep 30, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Not Kermit, fudge

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 1, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

This is a personal attack if I ever saw one.

Umps are people, and for all we know Jerry Meals might be reading this thread, and should be treated with respect instead of the hatred that Woody shows to them.

I do this for free.
#FREESANDY

by SRQman on Sep 30, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions