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'Complete Game James' Does It Again, Rays Beat Rangers 5-1

ST PETERSBURG, FL - SEPTEMBER 05:  :  Pitcher James Shields #33 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the Texas Rangers during the game at Tropicana Field on September 5, 2011 in St. Petersburg, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

James Shields can't be stopped. This was his 11th complete game of the season, the most by a pitcher in over ten years. Heck, since the 1994 strike, only three pitchers have thrown more than 11 complete games in one season: Curt Schilling (15, 1998), Pedro Martinez (13, 1997), and Randy Johnson (12, 1999). Shields is having a historic season, and it's been an absolute joy to watch.

As I've been in and out all day, we're going to do this bullet point style:

  • The Rays jumped out to an early 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first, courtesy of an Evan Longoria home run. This was Longo's 25th homer of the season in only 470 plate appearances, meaning he's on a 35-homer pace for a full season. Of course, since he missed time earlier this year due to injuries, he won't get that many home runs, but he's still making quite a push.
  • In the fourth inning, the Rays were able to tack on a couple more insurance runs. Scott Feldman walked the bases loaded, and then Casey Kotchman ripped a groundball up the middle for a single, driving in two. John Jaso followed the single by grounding into a double play, ending the inning, but the Rays still managed to squeeze out a run thanks to a bit of hustle from Sean Rodriguez.

    Jaso's grounder went right to first base, so it was natural for Mitch Moreland to step on first for the force and then throw to second to get the easy tag out. But Rodriguez was hustling (kinda) down from third and managed to score before the second out was made. It's not like Rodriguez was all out sprinting and dove headfirst into home pate, but still, he could easily have cruised down the line and not taken advantage of the opportunity. While the double play stunk, scoring once more took a bit of sting out of it.
  • Shields just barely made this complete game, coming in at 124 pitches. I find it ridiculous that this was the first time this year his complete game has been in jeopardy due to his pitch count. Most pitchers need to throw around 120+ pitches if they're going to finish a game, but Shields has been economical to the tee.  
  • And so the debate ranges: James Shields or Ben Zobrist for the Rays' MVP? Honestly, you can't go wrong picking either player. Both of them have been two of the Rays' top players this season, and the Rays wouldn't be where they are right now without both of them. Ben Zobrist has been the Rays' best position player, and James Shields has been their best starting pitcher. 

    Where would the Rays' offense be without Zobrist? And how would the Rays' rotation stack up without Shields? It's getting tougher and tougher for me to go with Zobrist over Shields, but I'm sticking with him; the Rays' offense would be considerably weaker without Zobrist, and their middle infield would be a veritable black hole. But you can make defensible arguments for both players, so I certainly can't fault anyone for thinking it's Shields.

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if the reds are serious about shields i could see bruce being thrown out there

There isn’t many other realistic matches and I can’t think of any at all off the top of my head

by Dbullsfan on Sep 5, 2011 7:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Rays aren't going to pay Bruce his very good contract for a player of his calibre
6 years/$51M (2011-16), plus 2017 club option
signed extension with Cincinnati 12/10/10 (avoided arbitration)
$0.25M signing bonus
11:$2.75M, 12:$5M, 13:$7.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M, 16:$12.5M, 17:$13M club option ($1M buyout)
limited no-trade clause (may block deals to 8 clubs)
award bonuses

2012 is Arb 1 and so on. They’re not going to trade Shields for the right to pay a guy less than he is worth.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 5, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

wait what? can u explain this because I'm not quite getting you

so Bruce is worth more than he is paying and that is why the Rays shouldn’t want to trade for him?

by Dbullsfan on Sep 5, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

This

Shields this year is like Enron ’99. He may have another great year, but his relatively low salary next year ($7mil) combined with his age, inning numbers and play above his projections makes him the player with the most value and the least upside.

by playjoyce on Sep 5, 2011 5:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

That's a great choice.

It really shouldn’t get an argument. Some people just don’t think pitchers should be MVP.

by Peter Piontek on Sep 5, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seems like Joe agrees with the way i think--he tweets:
We’re 14 games over .500 because of starting pitching like today. There’s no hiding that fact

.

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 5, 2011 5:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Winning games with good starting pitching

The way everyone thinks.

www.espn1040.com, www.theprocessreport.com, www.bloombergsports.com Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 5, 2011 6:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I agree, Sterny needs to stop acting like he's the lone voice proclaiming that the Rays have rode their arms

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 5, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Im not sure there is an argument for anything else but Pitching (and defense).

www.espn1040.com, www.theprocessreport.com, www.bloombergsports.com Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Sep 5, 2011 6:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Agreed, and specifically starting pitching

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 5, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

A person doesn't become a stronger MVP choice

because the other similar players are better. Price doesn’t make Shields a more logical choice. On the other hand, you could argue that Brignac does make Zobrist a more logical choice.

by Whelk on Sep 6, 2011 8:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I don't think either one is a wrong choice, but if people pick Zobrist their not shitting on Shields and the other pitchers

Many fans believe that when a race is close between a pitcher and a batter that you take the guy that played everyday. I don’t have a problem with either winning it, but will lean towards Zobrist for the season he’s having and also to make up for the horrible ignorance of Bartlett winning it over Zobrist in 2009. Justice will prevail.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

the term stat boys

has stuck and become part of the lexicon?

by MrNegative1 on Sep 5, 2011 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I imagine it's just a snide reference to R.J. who is no longer with us so what's the issue?

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 5, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Especially Mulva

The SF1 vs Mulva War has been epic.

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Sep 5, 2011 9:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

This is good

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "CL053D C45K37"

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Sep 6, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

The biggest problem for the Rays this season...

And what is preventing them from battling the Yanks and Sox for 1st place is an inability to get hit RISP. They are batting .227 as a team, and AL avg is .260. With 1200 AB’s w/ RISP, I’d imagine a lot of those 1 and 2 run losses could be wins if they hit JUST league average in those situations. BTW, the Rays hit .266, and their OPS was .100 pts higher in 2010.

by td32 on Sep 5, 2011 9:37 PM EDT reply actions  

and

1822 opportunities in 2010 & only 1414 so far this year.

A double whammy…lack of production + lack of opportunity.

Two prong assault on our offense in 2011.

by MrNegative1 on Sep 5, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

opportunities

= plate appearances….!!!!!!!

by MrNegative1 on Sep 5, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow, Yankees

have only 1446 Plate Appearances with RISP but have pushed across 534 runs

Red Sox 1541 PAs account for 550 runs

by MrNegative1 on Sep 5, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Rays are above avg for PA

And the Sox are the only team with more then 1500. The Rays PA numbers are fine, but it is their inability to do anything that is costing them. Even though they have more PA’s then most teams, they are near the bottom of the AL in XBH w/ RISP with 83. For perspective, the Royals, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers all have over 117.
The Rays have also K’d more then any team w/ RISP besides the Sox. With men in scoring position, gotta give the luck dragon a shot instead of striking out.
On top of having an awful BA w/ RISP, the Rays are second from the bottom in OBP and SLG.

by td32 on Sep 5, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm willing to wager that a good portion of the RISP problems stem from the 7-9 spots

aka the outs compared to the 2010 when it was a little more rounded.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Sep 5, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone sucks with the bases loaded basically this year

But also on the lack of power thing-Damon & Kotchman have been chronic issues there. Their COMBINED ISO is less than Joyce, Longoria, Upton and Zobrist’s. 1B/DH is suppose to be a position of power and that’s not held true for the Rays in 2011. But at least Kotchman still gets on-.364 OBP, but Damon is only getting on at .319(RISP) and he bats 2nd!

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Sep 5, 2011 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent Point!!!

Kelly Shoppach- .146 PA-57
Brignac- .137 PA- 56
Elliot Johnson- .163 PA-56
Srod- .178 PA- 90
Jaso- .194 PA- 68
Fuld- .203 PA- 81
BJ- .228 PA- 157
Felipe Lopez- .229 PA- 37
Longo- .237 PA- 143
Clutch Johnny Damon- .242 PA- 142

Joyce and Kotchman lead the way at .262 and .266 respectively.

That’s a bucket of suck from the bottom part of the order. Longo, Damon, and BJ need to perform better(obviously).

by td32 on Sep 6, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just doing a 2010 SS & C to 2011 SS & C

Just for offense
2010 wOBA
SS-.302
C-.311

2011
SS-.261
C-.274

Going by FanGraphs RAR for offense, that’s currently a drop of 33.3 from -13.8 to -47.1 just from those 2 positions alone. Rays couldn’t afford to lose that much offense.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Sep 6, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

How do their strikeout rates change going from a normal situation to RISP?

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

It still seems like an approach problem.

the game plan has sucked often so fire Shelton.

by Peter Piontek on Sep 5, 2011 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I never understand this, what do you think he is telling them with RISP? "Go up there and make an out just to piss off fans and get me fired."

I would love to see someone lay out the statistical case for how the approach is different when a batter is up with RISP versus other situations.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not so sure that i understand it either. It's just an observation.

Seems like some days the guys don’t take the bat of their shoulder until 2 strikes , even when guys are throwing strikes. Then some nights we swing at everything. It’s almost as if unless the game plan is spot on then the team has difficulties adjusting to the unexpected.

by Peter Piontek on Sep 6, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's almost as if good pitchers become a bit more unpredictable when the game is on the line

It could be paralysis by analysis if the statboys are giving the players information based on small samples of what a pitchers done in the past. I wouldn’t put that on a batting coach. I’m no fan of Shelton, but most hitting coaches make great scapegoats.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

If allowed i'd like to weigh in on the Zobrist v Shields MVP debate waged by Slow

For me, there is no contest. What Shields has given this team be it as a pitcher far outweighs the so so year Zobrist is having. If Zobrist were putting up these numbers with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers or Rangers they’d hardly be noticeable. And at a time when the team is making a last minute rush, he is slumping badly

For me it’s Shields with nobody a close second

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 6, 2011 8:19 AM EDT reply actions  

He's got opinions

If Shields were putting up those numbers with the Phillies, Giants, Mariners then no one would notice. It’s a poor excuse for rationality there, boy.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Vote for me for hobo of the year

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why not take a look at both players when the season ends on September 28th

Shields probably has 5 starts and Zobrist about 100 PA. WOuldn’t that be a better time to correctly identify the MVP?

I’ll side with Joe who yesterday said our strength has been our pitching. I don’t feel an offensive player has had a season so far to warrant MVP

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 6, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great point Sandy

I was just reading Sterny’s post and was wondering why he said offensive player, rather than positional player. Zobo is such a key to how Joe can put his team together defensively day in and day out. His versatality is very valuable.

by Landlord on Sep 6, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm basing my MVP the way the league MVP is chosen each and every year

and the stats given by Slow and others to defend Zobrist are all offensive

Yes he’s a good defensive second baseman, but so is Sean Rod. You win the mVP on offense, simply put

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 6, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can't argue with Shields being MVP as you know. This was a poor argument though...

You win the mVP on offense, simply put
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Sep 6, 2011 10:54 AM EDT

by Peter Piontek on Sep 6, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

If there are those out there who are making the Verlander for MVP argument in the AL

i don’t see why Shields as team MVP is so far fetched

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 6, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's not far fetched.

Many people have a hard time giving a guy who plays 33 games the edge over a guy playing 150+ games. I don’t feel this way. Many do though.

by Peter Piontek on Sep 6, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

IMO the games played argument is pretty stupid

A pitcher impacts a game far more than a position player. So if you multiply the per game impact by the amount of games played for each then you’d probably get somewhere near the same number.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Sep 6, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

So use the WAR values that I've listed below and take into account that Zobrist's would be even higher if he only played 2B

Instead he is helping the team maximally allocate and his numbers get reduced for doing so.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, his flexibility is crucial to Maddon's platoon optimization

And all WAR has to show for it is a penalty for playing some RF, instead of crediting a bonus for his versatility.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who's saying it's far fetched? Smart folks are saying it's close and then applying personal preferences to pick one

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

It isn't far fetched at all.

He is probably #2 for me now, and not far behind Zobrist.

To make it sound like there is no debate is crazy though.

by mr. maniac on Sep 6, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's very close, and I'm glad you've shared your opinion. Not too many are going out on a limb either way so give credit to Slo, yourself, and others that have had the balls to do so

B-Ref WAR Top 5
Shields 5.0
Longoria 4.7
Zobrist 4.5
Price 3.7
Hellickson 3.3

B-Pro WARP Top 5
Zobrist 4.4
Price 4.3
Longoria/Shields 4.2
Joyce 2.9

Fangraphs WAR Top 5
Zobrist 5.9
Shields 4.8
Price 4.7
Longoria 4.4
Joyce 3.3

As I’ve said, I don’t think it’s a bad vote for either Shields or Zobrist, but I would tip my cap to the guy that’s played everyday and given defensive flexibility that WAR doesn’t tie any value to. If Zobrist only played 2B all of his values would be higher as he’s penalized by the positional adjustment for every game he played in RF. This negative should actually be a positive as it allows maximization at other positions, but the formula does not see it that way. As long as it’s not Kotchman and one of these two, people shouldn’t be more than irked.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would too, if only Zobrist had the year he had in '09

With the slump he’s in, he’s in danger of falling below a 800 OPS and who knows what it’ll do to his other numbers

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Sep 6, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sure, it's key to point out that we're talking "at this moment" as close as they are a strong finish could separate the two enough to have a clear cut winner

Shields has about 4 more starts. If he throws another 34 innings and allows 5 runs while striking out the world, it’s hard to argue it. I’m sure if he does this you’ll tout how right you were and how wrong everyone else is, but at this point it’s not that black and white. HEEEE JAMBONA

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

WAR is not offensive

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 6, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Shields is the MVP, this is the case where WAR undersells a player due to volatility

Lets do some quick crude math:

He has 14 wins, and frankly he deserves credit for nearly all 14 of those wins. His ERA in those wins is less than 1. Now he has some serious blow ups that essentially caused a loss. He has 4 games where he gave up more than 6 earned runs. Chalk those up to Shields losses. So then we are sitting at 10 Shields wins. In the remaining games he has had a bit of hard luck, so that would definitely increase his contributions to ‘wins’…but lets ignore that.

Single handedly, Shields has given the Rays at minimum 10 wins this year.

I thank Draysbay for proving that Loose Change fanatics exist in mainstream America, and more importantly for Chik-fil-A spicy chicken recommendations. My life is forever changed

by matthan on Sep 6, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Using my expected pitcher wins that looks at game FIP compared to opposition FIP for every game and the same for wOBA

I had Shields at 15 wins for both FIP and wOBA after 24 starts. He’s been very good, I just think that those that are underselling Zobie aren’t factoring in his defense and are either comparing to his once-in-a-lifetime 2009 or not realizing that he plays half his game in one of the worst hitter parks in the bigs. 130 wRC+ is extremely good, as is a position weighted UZR of 10.6. Too bad Longo was hurt most of the first half, if he replicated his second half I think he’d be the clear choice.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's really encouraging to see what he's been up to lately, here's his HR/FB by month

April 0.0%
May 12.5%
June 17.1%
July 11.4%
August 21.7%
September 20.0%

Career is 15.8%. Too little, too late, but a full season of normal Longo, Jennings coming up a month earlier, and a Balfour and a Choate in the pen and I think this team is staring down 95 wins instead of 90

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

To that point here is Shieldsy's game by game FIP and wOBA showing likelihood of a win

I see a lot of really, really good games in there. I think it’s important to again point out that both are very deserving.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

It will be interesting to see how often a very good pitcher has a very bad start

I know we touched Verlander for 3 runs earlier in the year. I wonder if that was his worst performance.

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

On May 24th we got him for 6 runs

that’s the most all year. It appears that he has about the same number of sub par starts relative to the rest of his year.

by Peter Piontek on Sep 6, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Great point

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Sep 6, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

How many wins has Zobrist given the Rays though?

Obviously, it is harder to quantify than pitchers. The fact that he is out there everyday hitting and playing good defense makes it Zoby for me, although it is close.

Just think, where would the Rays be without Zobrist? Imagine having Briggy and S-rod playing every single day with Joyce agaisnt lefties every single day.

by mr. maniac on Sep 6, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question for the Shields MVP bandwagon

How much weight are you giving to the CG’s? Let’s say he was pulled after the 8th inning in eight or so of his CG’s? How would that change your opinion? It seems very reasonable to me that multiple managers would have pulled Shields yesterday after the 8th, pitch count in the 110’s, five run lead, already a lot of innings under his belt this season..
So, similar to how people overvalue saves, is a starting pitcher who pitches the 9th given “extra” credit, or more than really deserved?
I think his performance has been briliant, but if he pitched 8 less innings this season, would we be talking about it the same? Or would the outcome of those games be any different?

Another DRB guy on Twitter, @jeffjohn1979

by Mulva on Sep 6, 2011 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

In my eyes the CG's do play a part.

in the last 20 years the list of guys with as many as or more CG’s in a year is short and impressive.

by Peter Piontek on Sep 6, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone miss the part where Landlord went against Sterny?

Like Vader tossing the Emperor to his death.

@ptSuttery

by Suttree on Sep 6, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions  

It's why he's ROY

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Somebody has to go to bat for him, look at his last 69 PAs

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Check out my comment about Hope Solo's Carbonite Box

Easily the best comment of the day

If you can't say something to someone's face then it's not worthy of being said behind their back.

by Sandy Kazmir on Sep 6, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't worry about his last 69

Read todays recap. The part that says Ripped the ball.
Thats better than that seeing eye dribbler crap that Woody always tosses at us.

by Landlord on Sep 6, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's another one

That goes against Mr. Sternfan, Suttree.
Sterney tries to put Joe in his corner with the we would not have a team without our starting pitchers quote.
Well Joe did NOT say pitcher, he said pitchers. If you are going to use what somebody said, get it right.
Joe is not tossing his vote for Shields yet. When Joe says Shield’s is the MVP ,then put him in your corner.

by Landlord on Sep 6, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

rec'd.

1. For dissing sterny
2. For actually bringing up a very valid and good point.

by mr. maniac on Sep 6, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

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