Forewarning, I am NOT a scout.
With about a month left in the minor league season, I wanted to take a look at the season our future stars are having and rank them among each other. Let's go.
1. RHP Chris Archer- Hasnt been dominent this season, but has definetly improved. Especially his walk rate which is 4.3 BB/9 compared to last years 5.2. The strikeouts are up as well with a K/9 over 9. With top of the rotation "stuff" and being major league ready, Archer is my clear #1 prospect going into '13. ETA: 2013
2. 3B Richie Shaffer- We dont need him to stick at 3B thanks to Longo. However, we do need him to develop his power to it's potential. The quicker that develops, the quicker he'll be in Tampa. ETA: late 2014 or 2015
3. OF Mikie Mahtook- Development is coming along nicely. A monster season could have put him at #1 on my list, but a good season will still gets him near the top. Not excelling in one area particularly, but doing overall well in all aspects. Would more homers be nice? Yea. Would a higher OPS be nice? Yea. But overall they're nothing to complain about for a guy in AA during his first pro seaon. ETA: 2014
4. RHP- Taylor Guerrieri- The only stat you need to know about Guerrieri, a 14.5 K/BB rate in 8 starts. Hasn't walked anyone in his last 4 starts. Top of the rotation "stuff" and clearly able to control his pitches ridiculously well for a high school draftee in his first pro season. Unfortunately, we wont see him for awhile, but the initial results are encouraging. ETA: late 2016
5. SS Hak-Ju Lee- Wanted to put him lower, but came to my senses after remembering his value isn't in his bat. Although glove alone wont keep him in the majors (ask Brignac), it's going to help. Plus, the bat isn't abysmal. He'll never hit 15 homers, but he could easily hit over .300 and steal 40 bases a year. My big complaint is the strikeouts. For a contact hitter he's striking out way too much. Would love to see that improve. ETA: mid 2013 (hot start in Durham) or 2014
6. 2B Ryan Brett- My favorite prospect that analyst seem to never mention. Fast, very fast, has more steals than Lee. Seems like he's running everytime he's on first. At 5'9 180lbs, his power projection is limited. However, smaller players have developed power before so it's not impossible. Probably needs a monster season next year to get the recognition he deserves. ETA: 2015
7. OF Drew Vettleson- Good overall year so far for him.There's not really an area he's struggling in which is encouraging, but not crushing the ball either. Clearly looks better than his draft buddy Sale but unless he breaks out next year, he's going to progress slowly through the organization. His floor as a prospect puts him in this area on my list. ETA: 2016
8. RHP Alex Colome- I feel like I'm lower on Colome than most. He looks like a future reliever rather than a mid-rotation starter like others are pegging him. Why have a future reliever this high? Because I think he can be a dominant reliever. We've had a few success stories (Davis, McGee, Howell) and I think coming out of the bullpen would suit him well with his high octane fastball. ETA: 2013
9. SS Jake Hager- As a 19 year old, he's holding his own in full season ball. Like Vettleson, he's not crushing the ball, but he's not struggling in any one area. Love the K/BB rate. I think he'll develop a little more pop as his body fills out, possibly a 15+ homerun hitter. Hit tool is nice and speed is above average. Just needs to learn how to get better jumps to cut down the caught stealings. Defense should improve as he matures as well. If he has a monster season next year, expect him to shoot up prospect rankings. Get on the bangwagon now. ETA: 2016
10. LHP Blake Snell- Not too many scouting reports on Snell but impressive results from the 19 year old. Sure, he's dominating inferior competition in Princeton, but the Rays are known for developing pitchers slowly (can you really argue with the results?). He'll probably start next year in Bowling Green to form a very nice 1-2-3 punch with Guerrieri and Ames. ETA: late 2016 or 2017
Thats going to end the explanations for my rankings. Here are my next 10:
Thats my top 20, what do you think?