Rays Starting Pitching Comparables

by Xeifrank on Jan 10, 2012 10:02 PM EST

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Rays top starting pitchers: David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis as per the MLB Depth Charts website.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Rays starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter (exception for Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg, Fans Projections FG) over the last two years. Matt Moore's stats were taken from the Fangraphs Fans Projections and modified slightly, so there is some uncertainty around what numbers would best represent his skill in these areas. Here is the top 25 list for each Rays starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

It is kind of interesting to pick off the top one or two from each table and imagine your pitcher being replaced with that pitcher and how better or worse or the same your team would be.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
1	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.30
2	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
3	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.80
4	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
5	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
6	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
7	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
8	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
9	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91
10	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
11	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
12	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.30	1.37
13	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02
14	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
15	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
16	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04
17	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
18	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
19	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.30	1.37	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
20	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
21	Matt Moore	9.25	3.00	1.13	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
22	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
23	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
24	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
25	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Matt Moore	9.25	3.00	1.13	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
1	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
2	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04	Randy Wolf	5.80	3.22	0.94
3	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
4	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07	Wade Davis	5.57	3.20	0.87
5	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.40	1.50	Jair Jurrjens	5.90	2.88	1.06
6	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
7	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
8	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65	Randy Wells	6.17	3.00	1.28
9	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
10	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	Dave Bush	5.40	3.36	0.94
11	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.30	1.37	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
12	Ryan Dempster	8.60	3.62	1.27	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
13	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
14	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.10	1.41
15	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.80
16	Stephen Strasburg	9.75	2.15	1.35	Matt Harrison	6.00	2.94	1.44
17	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
18	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
19	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
20	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
21	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
22	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
23	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.50
24	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
25	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Wade Davis	5.57	3.20	0.87
1	Randy Wolf	5.80	3.22	0.94
2	Dave Bush	5.40	3.36	0.94
3	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
4	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
5	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
6	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
7	Jair Jurrjens	5.90	2.88	1.06
8	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
9	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.10	1.41
10	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.80
11	Brett Cecil	6.20	2.92	1.03
12	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.80
13	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
14	Randy Wells	6.17	3.00	1.28
15	Matt Harrison	6.00	2.94	1.44
16	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
17	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
18	Kyle Lohse	5.30	2.47	1.13
19	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.50	0.97
20	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3.00	1.40
21	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
22	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
23	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
24	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
25	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.50

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

As always, thanks for sharing your work with us!

Ho-lee-crap at Moore’s list

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Jan 10, 2012 10:13 PM EST reply actions

Do you guys

think that 9.25 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 is a reasonable seasonal projection for him? The Fangraphs Fans Projection has his K/9 projection at 10.26 which seemed a little high to me.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Jan 10, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, I do

I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude

by Jason Collette on Jan 11, 2012 9:23 AM EST up reply actions

Ho-lee-yuck at Helly/Davis

BRUCE CHENNNNNNN

"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 11, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions