Visualizing Pitch Selection: Fernando Rodney

by Whelk on Jan 13, 2012 1:00 PM EST in Infographics

Not Fernando Rodney.
upload.wikimedia.org

I think that pitch selection is pretty interesting. I've written about it before, and will doubtlessly do so many more times until either all Rays fans discuss pitching in terms of Nash equilibriums or someone can convince me that another such delusional article would be essentially a hopeless waste of intellectual effort. (If you're not familiar with the concept, don't start by reading me. MGL has a much better explanation here on Fangraphs.)

I also really like pictures made from pitch f/x data. I've tried to give a comprehensive visual representation of how an individual pitcher works (here's one of Colby Lewis), but the problem with this method is that while it shows what the pitcher actually did, it does a poor job showing how well it worked.

Check out this prototype of a new graph model to supplement the strikezone plot. I used the recently acquired Fernando Rodney as my test subject. All input on how to make it better is appreciated.

My data comes from Joe Lefkowitz. Pitch type classifications are from MLBAM with my own edits. I've also simplified the pitch results. As for the pitch type linear weights, for balls, strikes, and fouls, I used Joe Sheehan's numbers on Baseball Analysts. For balls in play, I used the numbers given by Tango in this thread of The Book Blog. Note that those numbers are a departure from the pitch type linear weights listed on Fangraphs, as Fangraphs uses the run value of the outcome of batted balls, not just the average run value of the batted ball type. Also note that in these calculations, the balls, strikes, and fouls are adjusted for count; the balls in play are not. I would love input on if doing it this way makes sense.

As for reading the graph, in the "Pitch Type Linear Weights" tab, the height of the bar signifies the number of times Rodney threw a pitch in the selected situation, the color is the run value of the pitch per 100 pitches (you can see the exact value per 100 pitches by hovering your cursor over the bar), and the number above the bar is the total run value accumulated by the pitch type. A negative number means a better pitch.

In the "Results by Pitch Type" tab, the height of the bar still signifies the number of times the pitcher threw the type of pitch, but I've now broken it into pitch results. The numbers inside each pitch result type are the runs given up or prevented per 100, so you can see exactly how the pitcher is reaching that overall run value for the pitch.

Once again, this is a prototype, and I really would like input. If you don't understand something about the graph, ask. If you think I could show something more clearly, tell me how you'd rather see it. If you think my numbers are bogus and poorly conceived, do let me know. I think up to date run values are available in The Hardball Times Annual, but I've never actually read one before, and I didn't realize until recently just what an oversight that was.

Edit: Here's a mockup of Chris St. John's suggestion.

Powe

red by Tableau

Edit 2: And here's another take on Chris St. John's suggestion. I prefer the latter. Thoughts?

Edit 3: One slight tweak, now positive run values will always be red, and negative always green.

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Comments

Include pitcher name somewhere, make into x/y?

You could do an X/Y with pitch as X and Linear weights as Y. Then use size to determine how often they threw it? I’m more interested in pitch value and would like to see that better represented visually.

@stealofhome

by Chris St. John on Jan 13, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions

That's not bad.

I have more trouble understanding how often he went to a pitch as a size of the bar than I did understanding the linear weights as a color, but that might not be true for others.

Oh, and I think if I were to make it this way, I’d multiply by -1 so that a good pitch went up, not down.

by Whelk on Jan 13, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm. Using per/100 too much allows a SSS to distort the scale.

Just a sec.

by Whelk on Jan 13, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

His command keeps getting worse

But I finally found something good in Rodney. If he can set up the right pitch count, that change looks like it’s hard to make contact with.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 13, 2012 1:11 PM EST reply actions

Really?

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Jan 13, 2012 4:25 PM EST reply actions

Really.

by Whelk on Jan 13, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

OT: Mariners to trade Michael Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero?

Damn it, I hate it when teams make trades that make sense.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 13, 2012 7:37 PM EST reply actions

That's what I thought it would be before anyone confirmed it

STOP BEING SMART CASHMAN

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 7:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I think Montero can be an impact, middle-of-the-order bat at DH

and I still think it makes sense for the Yankees to trade him.

Dear god, if the Yankees sign Prince Fielder, I will cry.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 13, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

I like it for both sides

Win-Win on paper.

Besides the Yankees have like too many DHs on the roster already. Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira all will need to DH in the next few years more. Can give better roster flexibility.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 13, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

I know.

Crazy that Yankee fans don’t like this.

by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

They hate this deal. It's awesome.

http://www.pinstripealley.com/2012/1/13/2706036/new-york-yankees-trade-jesus-montero-to-the-seattle-mariners-for#comments

The reactions are amazing.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

by playjoyce on Jan 13, 2012 8:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Shocking.....

Time to look at PSA reactions! :)

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 13, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

I legit may never forgive them for this. They’ve done a lot of fucked up shit, but this might take the cake.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 13, 2012 6:43 PM CST reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

that fangirl will forget all about it

when Pineda is 13-2 at the ASB

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 13, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

Doubt it.

She’s pretty effing stupid.

Or, in that case, maybe.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

Here she is again.

Felix for Montero would suck for about 5 minutes. Pineda for Montero is going to suck a bit longer.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 13, 2012 7:09 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

.

it’s the principle
You don’t give up the top fucking hitting prospect in all of baseball for this. It just doesn’t make sense.
Sigh. I’m done ranting. It’s done, and Pineda is young with some nice upside. He will improve the rotation and I wish him good luck.
I’ll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it’s sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett’s only fan!
by nyyrocks29 on Jan 13, 2012 6:53 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

"the top hitting prospect in all of baseball"

lolzers

by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

My response:

Bryce Harper?

No one has commented on that yet.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

I'd take Trout over Harper

Since he’s a better athlete

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

This stupid fucking team doesn’t deserve good prospects
Rec Generating Database
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Jan 13, 2012 6:45 PM CST reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

look, we agree!

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 13, 2012 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

.

Also
cheap young potential slugger > decent starter
by jetanumba2 on Jan 13, 2012 6:47 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

Pineda is FAR from a guarantee.
BSME
by Xavier10 on Jan 13, 2012 6:53 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

.

eh…
Pineda will likely run into arm trouble within several years with his slider and i don’t think Montero and Noesi are worth that. only Montero would be one thing but him + Noesi = Mariners win this deal
one thing this could mean though is freeing up some room to sign Prince…
I’d like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee fan.
by NJsandman on Jan 13, 2012 6:58 PM CST reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

.

Yankees just got bent over by the freaking Mariners
They might as well up the pieces and go after Felix
by jetanumba2 on Jan 13, 2012 6:59 PM CST reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions

.

i’m not gonna hate on him
i’ll support him because he’s a Yankee (if A-Rod wasn’t a Yankee i’d probably still hate him) but this deal has me thinking WTF a bit
I’d like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee fan.
by NJsandman on Jan 13, 2012 7:02 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

WINNER

HOW COULD THEY TRADE HIM!!!! I just don’t understand.
This was a horrible deal. Yes, this came out of nowhere, but Pineda? If they traded for a pitcher, it should have been a bona-fide #2, or even a #1. Couldn’t they have pulled off a deal for Kershaw or somebody? I don’t mean to overvalue Montero, but he was the best hitting prospect ever for the Yankees and the best in all of baseball. You can throw out Harper’s name as the best all around prospect, but Montero was definitely the better hitter!!!!!!
HORRIBLE DEAL!!!!!
by NJGuy on Jan 13, 2012 7:14 PM CST reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

What??

@RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Jan 14, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions

.

Yeah, it’s so great to watch prospects grow and have them traded away for the flavor of the week. Super fun.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 13, 2012 7:18 PM CST up reply actions

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

.

This.
We basically gave all out pitching prospects the finger
by jetanumba2 on Jan 13, 2012 7:21 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

what's really going to suck

is when the Yankees sign Prince Fielder next week

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 13, 2012 8:07 PM EST reply actions

That would just be too much for me to take.

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 13, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

We have no interest in Prince Fielder

5mins later.

We’ve signed Prince Fielder

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

WTF

You have to be fucking with me here. This is a fucking joke right? A joke? Please?

FUCK!!!!!!

Sorry for the cursing but I feel it’s necessary. FUCK!!!!!

I’ll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it’s sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant

A.J. Burnett’s only fan!

by nyyrocks29 on Jan 13, 2012 7:49 PM EST via iPhone app replyactions

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 13, 2012 8:10 PM EST reply actions

Is it that bad of a trade?

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 13, 2012 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

No, they should be really happy, not upset.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions

It has its flaws for both side

Montero is a DH-only with Safeco’s death-LF and Pineda switches to a tougher environment.

But a good move on paper for both teams I think.

I put the screw IN THE TUNA!

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

I see the problem everyone.

Pineda isn’t a “winner”. He doesn’t fit their winning mentality. Look beyond the usual stuff like a 3.4 WAR. His record was 9-10. It is so obvious why the Mariners won this trade.

by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2012 8:31 PM EST reply actions