Rays Community Prospect #25

Win already!

good college bat that had an advanced approach in college. great reports on his tools as well.

this may be early for him, but i like him more than the RPs with questions or the crappy big league ready catchers.

Just kinda picking one of the recent raw draftees at random here. The Rays drafted Martin before Harris and Eirman though so I choose him.

I still see a lot of potential in that guy.

He’s old, he doesn’t walk much and he doesn’t play defense that well, but he’s hit for average and power at every level and can at least fake playing catcher, first base and outfield.

If we’re talking older relievers, he’s on the 40-man still and pitched well in Durham, even if he got shellacked in his cup of coffee.

Just after last season, it is no longer top heavy.

But probably top 5. Weak back half of the top 10 though.

We’re at the point where we’re electing guys who were passed over in Rule 5, so I don’t know if it’s really THAT deep. On the other hand, Sickels had more people on his preliminary list for the Rays than for any other team.

For me, that carries value.

Bush’s K/BB was 3.21 to Fleming’s 2.44.

Backround…..
Fleming is 25 years old (9/11/1986) and was born in Oakland. He was undrafted out of HS and signed with the Rays (as a senior) after being taken in the 24th round of the 2008 draft. Not much of a hyped prospect, reports about his intangibles are practically impossble to come by. However, it appears that he is a motivated kid and came from a tougher backround that has helped keep him going.
Bush is also 25 (2/8/1986) and was born in San Deigo. He was the first overall pick by the Padres in the 2004 draft as a SS. The stories of Bush’s failure, his addictions, and his addittude issues have all been well documented. It appears that he has turned his life around though and has been sober since June 28, 2010. He has taken all the measures the Rays have asked of him, including attending Winning Inning Baseball Academy. It appears that he has turned his life around and is determined to be a better person. However, this matter can be very subjective.
Adantage: This is a very subjective matter. Personally, I call it even, but if you aren’t convinced that Bush has turned it around, then Fleming makes sense.

Statistics….
Fleming has pitched in the Rays org. from 2008-2011 and going from Hudson Valley to a small trip in Durham. He has only made one start for the Rays and has performed well, never having an ERA over 3.86. Fleming has evolved into a K artist, average over 11 and a hlaf Ks per 9 innings during the past two years. He has also kept his walk rates in a manageable range, although the 4.7/9 was fairly high last year. He has pitched over 150 innings combined over the past two years. One thing to note is that his FIP has been higher than his ERA at times, hitting 3.63 last year.
Bush has pitched in the Rays org. from 2010-2011 pitching in the GCL, A+, and AA. He has been used strictly in relief. Because of some injuries and to limit the mileage on his arm, he only 13 innings in 2010 but pitched 50 in 2011. The number should continue to climb. Bush posted a good 3.29 ERA in 2010, striking out 13.2/9 while only walking 2/9, a very good sign for a raw arm. In 2011, the BB/9 rate took a step back, going to 4.3/9. However, his K/9 rate remained superb at 13.8/9. His ERA was an unimpressive 4.83, but his FIP was 2.98.

Advantage: Fleming has a longer track record, but Bush has been more dominant. This is near even.

Stuff…..
Fleming dominates with a wicked changeup in the 75-78 range and a mediocre fastball in the 88-90 range. He also throws a slider on occasion, but it does not appear to be that good of a pitch. Fleming relies on his changeup quite a bit and has an idea or two about how to fool a batter. His command is supposed to be solid.

Matt Bush has very (very) good stuff. He has a fastball that sits in mid 90s and hit 100 on occasion in 2011. He also added a very good slider (he threw mostly fastballs and curves prior) mid-2011 to much success, improving his stats from that point. His curve is also supposed to be a good pitch.

Advantage: Matt Bush.

I like Bush a bit more. I am concerned about his injuries, but his raw stuff is extremely good.

Fleming:

Pros:
- Long track record of playing well at every level
- No injury history
- Plus-plus change
- Induces lots of ground balls
- Low hit rate at every level (although that gets less important as one gets closer to the majors)

Cons:
- Sub-90 mph fastball
- Unlikely to get much of a shot at the majors if he doesn’t continue to perform, due to lack of high draft status and lack of a good fastball

Bush:

Pros:
- Higher K rate last year
- Better K/BB ratio
- Plus-plus fastball, and a curve that flashes plus
- On the 40-man roster

Cons:
- Has been kicked off of two teams
- Has only had one healthy season in the minors
- Has only had one good season
- Has struggled with alcoholism
- Reputation of not being a team player

But there are a lot of similarities – both have great K rates, so-so control, are the same age, are right-handed relievers and pitched at the same level last year.

… when he put Bush on the 40-man and left Flemming unprotected in the Rule 5 draft?

And didn’t the rest of MLB tell us theirs when no one claimed him?